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michaelredd9

2019 Vegas Win Total Over/Under

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10 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Very doable does not mean 50%.  I think they have a 20% chance of getting 12 or more wins.  I wouldn't put the odds at 50% to get 12 wins for any team except for maybe the Patriots.  For you to say it is absolute nonsense and that you guarantee they won't, I assumed you'd put the odds at about 1%.  But most of your statements are absolutes and therefore hyperbole.

 

 

I like the number exactly where Vegas has it. I wouldn't touch it one way or another. But if Vegas gave me 12 I'd sell the house and take the under in a second. I'm not sure anyone will win 12 this year. 

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16 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Very doable does not mean 50%.  I think they have a 20% chance of getting 12 or more wins.  I wouldn't put the odds at 50% to get 12 wins for any team except for maybe the Patriots.  For you to say it is absolute nonsense and that you guarantee they won't, I assumed you'd put the odds at about 1%.  But most of your statements are absolutes and therefore hyperbole.

 

 

Yep and why he earned a spot on my ignore list. The hyperbole has always been over the top. 

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4 hours ago, stevegrab said:

 

Yep and why he earned a spot on my ignore list. The hyperbole has always been over the top. 

 

I'm on your ignore list yet you reply to my every post. And you may want to take my advice. I can make you a lot of $$$. 

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If you get a bet with 80/20 odds in your favor you make it every single time. Yes, you're gonna lose 20% of the time but you will not care.

 

Back to the Browns....I think a 10-20% shot at 12 wins seems reasonable to me. I personally don't think it'll happen but much, much crazier things have happened in the NFL. If they win 6 games, also wouldn't shock me. Not a likely outcome but certainly in the realm of the possible.

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34 minutes ago, stethant said:

If you get a bet with 80/20 odds in your favor you make it every single time. Yes, you're gonna lose 20% of the time but you will not care.

 

Back to the Browns....I think a 10-20% shot at 12 wins seems reasonable to me. I personally don't think it'll happen but much, much crazier things have happened in the NFL. If they win 6 games, also wouldn't shock me. Not a likely outcome but certainly in the realm of the possible.

 

Winning 6 games would still be about 2 more than the average over the last 20 seasons.  I think 10 is reasonable.I think a lot could depend on how good/bad PIT/BAL are. 

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