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2019 Vegas Win Total Over/Under


michaelredd9
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10 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Very doable does not mean 50%.  I think they have a 20% chance of getting 12 or more wins.  I wouldn't put the odds at 50% to get 12 wins for any team except for maybe the Patriots.  For you to say it is absolute nonsense and that you guarantee they won't, I assumed you'd put the odds at about 1%.  But most of your statements are absolutes and therefore hyperbole.

 

 

I like the number exactly where Vegas has it. I wouldn't touch it one way or another. But if Vegas gave me 12 I'd sell the house and take the under in a second. I'm not sure anyone will win 12 this year. 

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16 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Very doable does not mean 50%.  I think they have a 20% chance of getting 12 or more wins.  I wouldn't put the odds at 50% to get 12 wins for any team except for maybe the Patriots.  For you to say it is absolute nonsense and that you guarantee they won't, I assumed you'd put the odds at about 1%.  But most of your statements are absolutes and therefore hyperbole.

 

 

Yep and why he earned a spot on my ignore list. The hyperbole has always been over the top. 

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If you get a bet with 80/20 odds in your favor you make it every single time. Yes, you're gonna lose 20% of the time but you will not care.

 

Back to the Browns....I think a 10-20% shot at 12 wins seems reasonable to me. I personally don't think it'll happen but much, much crazier things have happened in the NFL. If they win 6 games, also wouldn't shock me. Not a likely outcome but certainly in the realm of the possible.

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34 minutes ago, stethant said:

If you get a bet with 80/20 odds in your favor you make it every single time. Yes, you're gonna lose 20% of the time but you will not care.

 

Back to the Browns....I think a 10-20% shot at 12 wins seems reasonable to me. I personally don't think it'll happen but much, much crazier things have happened in the NFL. If they win 6 games, also wouldn't shock me. Not a likely outcome but certainly in the realm of the possible.

 

Winning 6 games would still be about 2 more than the average over the last 20 seasons.  I think 10 is reasonable.I think a lot could depend on how good/bad PIT/BAL are. 

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