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michaelredd9

2019 Vegas Win Total Over/Under

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What looks like a good bet?

 

AFC
AFC East Proj. Wins
New Engand 11.0
NY Jets 7.0
Buffalo 6.0
Miami 5.0
AFC North Proj. Wins
Cleveland 9.0
Pittsburgh 9.0
Baltimore 8.5
Cincinnati 7.0
AFC South Proj. Wins
Indianapolis 9.5
Houston 8.5
Tennessee 8.5
Jacksonville 8.0
AFC West Proj. Wins
Kansas City 10.5
LA Chargers 10.0
Denver 7.0
Oakland 6.0
NFC
NFC East Proj. Wins
Philadelphia 9.5
Dallas 8.5
NY Giants 6.0
Washington 6.0
NFC North Proj. Wins
Chicago 9.5
Green Bay 9.0
Minnesota 9.0
Detroit 7.0
NFC South Proj. Wins
New Orleans 10.5
Atlanta 8.5
Carolina 8.0
Tampa Bay 6.0
NFC West Proj. Wins
LA Rams 10.5
Seattle 8.5
San Francisco 8.0
Arizona 5.0

 

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2 minutes ago, League_Champion said:

 

I agree Steve. That Cincy number seems awfully high.

 

The entire AFC North at nearly .500 ?? I don't see it

 

I also think the Browns win more than 9, that's only an improvement of 1.5 wins, over a team that still had Hue as coach for the first half of a season, rookie Mayfield starting after 3 games as a rookie, first time coaches taking over mid-season. They went 2-5-1 in first half, 5-3 the second. 

 

Add in OBJ, Hunt for second half, and 10 wins should be attainable. 

 

But I don't bet on my own team

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On 4/2/2019 at 6:20 AM, League_Champion said:

The Redskins under is a lock and I like the Chicago under as well, but not as much.

The Redskins arguably the most favorable strength of schedule swing from last season to this upcoming season on paper (their collective opponents' winning percentage from last season is lowest of all teams). I'm not saying you are wrong, but to say they are a lock to lose 11 or more games is too strong IMO. I also understand the inexact science behind strength of schedule analysis, as the teams going on the field in 2019 will have new players, coaches, etc. that factor into their performance. 

 

I'm inclined to bet the over on Miami, if only because their schedule includes four games with Buffalo and the Jets as well as home games against the Redskins and Bengals. If they can muster a win outside of those games, their path to 6 wins isn't that hard to envision. Of course, there are a lot of things up in the air with Miami, so it's not at all a safe play. It's just where my head went when looking at their number and situation.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, MTSuper7 said:

The Redskins arguably the most favorable strength of schedule swing from last season to this upcoming season on paper (their collective opponents' winning percentage from last season is lowest of all teams). I'm not saying you are wrong, but to say they are a lock to lose 11 or more games is too strong IMO. I also understand the inexact science behind strength of schedule analysis, as the teams going on the field in 2019 will have new players, coaches, etc. that factor into their performance. 

 

I'm inclined to bet the over on Miami, if only because their schedule includes four games with Buffalo and the Jets as well as home games against the Redskins and Bengals. If they can muster a win outside of those games, their path to 6 wins isn't that hard to envision. Of course, there are a lot of things up in the air with Miami, so it's not at all a safe play. It's just where my head went when looking at their number and situation.

 

The Skins have no QB. Who Keenum?? It looks like they will be chasing Josh Rosen, according to reports. That's under 6 wins all day. Especially in the NFC East.

Edited by League_Champion

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I like Seattle to get more than 8.5 wins.  Russell Wilson alone can get a team to 9 wins.  And they still have talent on defense and I believe in Pete Carroll.  But they do have a very tough schedule which won't make it the cakewalk.

 

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On 4/5/2019 at 10:27 AM, MTSuper7 said:

The Redskins arguably the most favorable strength of schedule swing from last season to this upcoming season on paper (their collective opponents' winning percentage from last season is lowest of all teams). I'm not saying you are wrong, but to say they are a lock to lose 11 or more games is too strong IMO. I also understand the inexact science behind strength of schedule analysis, as the teams going on the field in 2019 will have new players, coaches, etc. that factor into their performance. 

 

I'm inclined to bet the over on Miami, if only because their schedule includes four games with Buffalo and the Jets as well as home games against the Redskins and Bengals. If they can muster a win outside of those games, their path to 6 wins isn't that hard to envision. Of course, there are a lot of things up in the air with Miami, so it's not at all a safe play. It's just where my head went when looking at their number and situation.

 

Not feeling your call on Miami.  They will be on par with Buffalo, so a split there.  The Jets are going to be MUCH improved.  I don't see Miami beating them, even at home.  

 

On 4/5/2019 at 4:08 PM, michaelredd9 said:

I like Seattle to get more than 8.5 wins.  Russell Wilson alone can get a team to 9 wins.  And they still have talent on defense and I believe in Pete Carroll.  But they do have a very tough schedule which won't make it the cakewalk.

 

 

Tough schedule makes that 8.5 number right in the sweet spot.  9 wins does sound about right, but with it being at 8.5 you're gonna be sweatin' that last week.  What if they're at 8 wins and don't need to get to 9 to improve playoff seeding?  Vegas has it right here.

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According to this Seattle has the 7th easiest schedule:  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-strength-of-schedule-patriots-and-redskins-have-it-easiest-raiders-face-roughest-ride/

 

6 wins at home seems realistic.  Less than 8 wins total would represent a step backwards from last year and likely an away record low for the Carrol/Wilson era.  

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

According to this Seattle has the 7th easiest schedule:  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-strength-of-schedule-patriots-and-redskins-have-it-easiest-raiders-face-roughest-ride/

 

6 wins at home seems realistic.  Less than 8 wins total would represent a step backwards from last year and likely an away record low for the Carrol/Wilson era.  

 

I think it's a hard schedule because a lot of the teams they face that had bad or average records last year are actually good teams.  7 out of 8 of their road opponents are tough matchups.  I think they still win 9 or more because of Wilson and the program.  Here are their opponents:

 

  • Home: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Away: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers
Edited by michaelredd9

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I think it's a hard schedule because a lot of the teams they face that had bad or average records last year are actually good teams.  7 out of 8 of their road opponents are tough matchups.  I think they still win 9 or more because of Wilson and the program.  Here are there opponents:

 

  • Home: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Away: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Yeah I see 6 wins at home, and no way they don't win 3 on the road.

 

Actually, now that I look at it a bit more... their road schedule is pretty brutal.

Edited by darin3

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Posted (edited)

Even their home schedule isn't easy.  The Saints and Rams are clearly better teams.  But the 49ers, Ravens, and Vikings are also tough matchups.  Even the Bucs and Bengals could be threats to win.  That is 5 to 7 potentially tough matchups at home.  Only Arizona is a cakewalk in either their road or home schedule.  The article cited used last year's records for strength of schedule.  Arizona and San Francisco won 3 and 4 games last year and they faced them both twice.  That slanted the results considerably.   A better method would be to use this year's projected win totals.  Using that method, the Seahawks 2019 opponents have an average over/under win total of 9.3 (league average is 8.125).

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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The Seahawks road game with the Browns is our lone home game in a 6 week stretch (2 pairs of back to back on the road plus our BYE). Fans are going to be pumped for that one. 

 

Agree that expected wins is a better measure than record, but coming up with that basically requires you to decide each teams quality anyway. Browns are expected to win 10-12, which is 3-5 more than last year, a vastly improved team. 

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On 4/18/2019 at 8:55 AM, stevegrab said:

Browns are expected to win 10-12

Or 9.  Which is the over under Vegas set.

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I would take the over on the Patriots. Their schedule is so freaking easy.

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15 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

Or 9.  Which is the over under Vegas set.

 

I think 9 is about right. I wouldn't touch that one. I think Vegas nailed it.

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18 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

Or 9.  Which is the over under Vegas set.

 

I was talking about how many games people (that I've heard discussing the team) expect them to win, I know the chart posted in this thread showed 9

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3 hours ago, stevegrab said:

 

I was talking about how many games people (that I've heard discussing the team) expect them to win, I know the chart posted in this thread showed 9

 

I've heard people say 12 wins for the Browns which is absolute nonsense. Won't happen. 

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4 minutes ago, League_Champion said:

 

I've heard people say 12 wins for the Browns which is absolute nonsense. Won't happen. 

 

 

The Browns have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL this year.  If Baker becomes truly elite, which isn't unlikely, then 12 wins is very doable.

 

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On 4/21/2019 at 9:29 AM, Chief Dick said:

I would take the over on the Patriots. Their schedule is so freaking easy.

+1. 2nd half schedule is tougher and no Gronk but still....this is the Hoodie.

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21 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

The Browns have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL this year.  If Baker becomes truly elite, which isn't unlikely, then 12 wins is very doable.

 

 

I'd like some action on that. I can GUARANTEE you they won't win 12. There's too many new parts, etc. 

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1 hour ago, League_Champion said:

 

I'd like some action on that. I can GUARANTEE you they won't win 12. There's too many new parts, etc. 

 

What odds will you give me?

 

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2 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

What odds will you give me?

 

 

No odds! Your saying 12 is VERY doable. I'll take the under all day everyday.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, League_Champion said:

 

No odds! Your saying 12 is VERY doable. I'll take the under all day everyday.

 

Very doable does not mean 50%.  I think they have a 20% chance of getting 12 or more wins.  I wouldn't put the odds at 50% to get 12 wins for any team except for maybe the Patriots.  For you to say it is absolute nonsense and that you guarantee they won't, I assumed you'd put the odds at about 1%.  But most of your statements are absolutes and therefore hyperbole.

 

Edited by michaelredd9

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