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david johnson when picking 5th in ppr....


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from where i stand i think hes an obvious choice...in fact if i was picking 4th and zeke were still sitting there i might even bypass zeke because hes zeke 

 

take a look at some things

 

cam newtons rookie year had j stew and d angelo williams both over 5 yards a carry

 

the next year, robert griffins rookie year, the pedestrian alfred morris rushed for 1600 yards and 13 tds

 

a couple of years ago shady mccoy was pretty much considered washed up in most circles....and oh yeah "buffalos offensive line stinks and is ranked in 30s when most FF sites do offensive line rankings"...yet tyrod taylor was running hot and what do you know? almost 1300 on the ground and 13 tds

 

one probably doesnt have to point out the spike in YPC for ravens rbs once lamar jackson took over last year right?

 

the offensive line added a massive tackle with plenty of experience on a good line in pittsburgh...i also have their schedule up in the top 3rd of the league as far as positive

 

i see the huddle has him 6th overall in ppr...which tells me they are pretty close to being in line with my thinking

 

conversely...a player whos talent i love....they have a bit too high for my liking...joe mixon...love the talent...jonah williams being done...boling retiring....aj banged up already...this is always the case with this team...snakebit/dumpster fire

 

just some early observations/thoughts

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1 minute ago, michaelredd9 said:

While having a running quarterback helps a running back's rushing average, it hurts a running back's reception total.  Receptions are far more important to a running back's fantasy value than their yards-per-carry.

 

 

That where I think the RPO can help DJ. Defenses will need to respect Murray's speed and DJ coming out of the backfield. 

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1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

While having a running quarterback helps a running back's rushing average, it hurts a running back's reception total.  Receptions are far more important to a running back's fantasy value than their yards-per-carry.

 

mccaffrey caught 80 balls his rookie year in a very unimaginative mike shula offense....and they were still leaning on j stew alot that year too......so it can be done

 

i think theres enough there for dj to log 230-260 carries and catch 70 passes

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3 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

mccaffrey caught 80 balls his rookie year in a very unimaginative mike shula offense....and they were still leaning on j stew alot that year too......so it can be done

 

i think theres enough there for dj to log 230-260 carries and catch 70 passes

 

Totally agree, especially in that offense.

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7 hours ago, League_Champion said:

 

Totally agree, especially in that offense.

most people have him in the 5-8 range overall in top150-200 ppr rankings...im fairly certain theyve factored him in to be catching a decent amount of passes to earn that ranking...and im thinking most might even be a bit conservative with him and their projections

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1 hour ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

most people have him in the 5-8 range overall in top150-200 ppr rankings...im fairly certain theyve factored him in to be catching a decent amount of passes to earn that ranking...and im thinking most might even be a bit conservative with him and their projections

 

I'm all in on DJ this year, especially PPR

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On 7/30/2019 at 6:49 PM, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

mccaffrey caught 80 balls his rookie year in a very unimaginative mike shula offense....and they were still leaning on j stew alot that year too......so it can be done

 

 

Cam Newton is different than other running quarterbacks in ways that allow McCaffrey to excel in the passing game.  Cam doesn't have elite speed like an RGIII or Kyler Murray.  He came into the league with a 4.59 40 yard dash and has definitely been slowed down by multiple serious ankle and knee injuries.  Defenses don't need to shadow him the same as they would a quarterback with elite speed.  Defenses have to respect speed to the edge.  And when a defensive player is shadowing a fast quarterback, they are in perfect position to tackle a running back who gets a reception or rushes to the edge.

 

The running backs who have excelled with fast running quarterbacks have generally been power backs that run downhill between the tackles.  The running back puts pressure up the middle and the quarterback's speed makes the defense honor the edge.  David Johnson has never been a good between the tackles rusher.  Defenses are going do everything they can to take away the edge which will hurt both Johnson's rushes and receptions.  I think it would have been more strategic for the Cardinals to bring in a player like Jordan Howard or CJ Anderson.

 

Johnson will probably put up decent fantasy numbers like he did last year since he has little competition and Kingsbury's offense is planning to be high volume.  But I think he'll be inefficient like last year and won't return to the elite status that would justify his current adp.  And the possibility exists that they'll bring in a power back who will take away some of his touches.  The Cardinals possibly didn't even want Johnson this year but his large, guaranteed contract meant he couldn't be cut or traded.  I couldn't imagine drafting a high-risk gamble like Johnson over the tier one wide receivers.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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9 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Cam Newton is different than other running quarterbacks in ways that allow McCaffrey to excel in the passing game.  Cam doesn't have elite speed like an RGIII or Kyler Murray.  He came into the league with a 4.59 40 yard dash and has definitely been slowed down by multiple serious ankle and knee injuries.  Defenses don't need to shadow him the same as they would a quarterback with elite speed.  Defenses have to respect speed to the edge.  And when a defensive player is shadowing a fast quarterback, they are in perfect position to tackle a running back who gets a reception or rushes to the edge.

 

The running backs who have excelled with fast running quarterbacks have generally been power backs that run downhill between the tackles.  The running back puts pressure up the middle and the quarterback's speed makes the defense honor the edge.  David Johnson has never been a good between the tackles rusher.  Defenses are going do everything they can to take away the edge which will hurt both Johnson's rushes and receptions.  I think it would have been more strategic for the Cardinals to bring in a player like Jordan Howard or CJ Anderson.

 

Johnson will probably put up decent fantasy numbers like he did last year since he has little competition and Kingsbury's offense is planning to be high volume.  But I think he'll be inefficient like last year and won't return to the elite status that would justify his current adp.  And the possibility exists that they'll bring in a power back who will take away some of his touches.  The Cardinals possibly didn't even want Johnson this year but his large, guaranteed contract meant he couldn't be cut or traded.  I couldn't imagine drafting a high-risk gamble like Johnson over the tier one wide receivers.

 

in newtons rookie year, when he was fresh before he was beset by injuries, stewart and dangelo split carries pretty much evenly

 

both averaged 5.4 a carry...and together they totaled 63 catches

 

ultimately i think they want murray to be more drew brees than robert griffin...i dont think they plan on putting him in harms way all that much and hope to not burn him out....but the threat is there and they will prob run him a bit to keep things honest

Edited by forever in debt to mo lewis
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11 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

both averaged 5.4 a carry...and together they totaled 63 catches

 

 

Stewart getting 47 receptions was impressive.  He never had more than 25 in any other year.  And at the college level, Kingsbury's Air Raid offense did like to throw to the running back.  Another thing working in Johnson's favor is that he can run a wide receiver's route tree.  In 2016, 43% of his targets came when he was lined up as a wide receiver.  He ended up with 558 air yards (the number of air yards varies depending on the source).  That was more than double any other running back in 2016 and more than any running back had in the previous ten years.  By comparison, Le'Veon Bell has had 21 total air yards in the last 4 years combined.  So Johnson isn't going to have to just rely on dump off receptions to get his stats.  I'm not denying that Johnson could do well.  But injury is the only thing that could prevent a receiver like Hopkins or Thomas from being top 5.  Why take an unnecessary risk in the first round of the draft when such safe options exist?

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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14 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Stewart getting 47 receptions was impressive.  He never had more than 25 in any other year.  And at the college level, Kingsbury's Air Raid offense did like to throw to the running back.  Another thing working in Johnson's favor is that he can run a wide receiver's route tree.  In 2016, 43% of his targets came when he was lined up as a wide receiver.  He ended up with 558 air yards (the number of air yards varies depending on the source).  That was more than double any other running back in 2016 and the more than any running back had in the previous ten years.  By comparison, Le'Veon Bell has had 21 total air yards in the last 4 years combined.  So Johnson isn't going to have to just rely on dump off receptions to get his stats.  I'm not denying that Johnson could do well.  But injury is the only thing that could prevent a receiver like Hopkins or Thomas from being top 5.  Why take an unnecessary risk in the first round of the draft when such safe options exist?

 

Im not saying that what Im about to say is any sort of proof of anything...but I wont a 12 team ppr, high stakes, league that is pretty competitive last year and didnt draft my first wr till the 4th round...granted that guy went for 111-1400...but lol

 

i get that hopkins and adams, maybe thomas too, seem safe in the 1st....its just to me that if are picking in the 5-8 range you will prob still be able to nab a receiver that can you get close to hopkins/adams numbers in the 2nd....it really depends on how your league/draft goes...but AB might still be sitting around....ODB...maybe even evans...kelce...julio.....might all be able to come closer to meeting hopkins/adams than a mid 2nd round rb will come to duplicating cmac, zeke, barkley and kamara....you feel me??

 

my own personal philosophy never has me really playing it safe....im much more willing to roll the dice than most people

 

but if i go WR in the 1st the RB options to me dont give me alot of goosebumps in the mid 2nd...the only possible guy in that range that has me a lil bit excited is damien williams....i actually picked him up later in the year a couple of years ago when he and drake started splitting work in miami and when i watched i saw something....plus watching my pats play them twice last year its obvious hes a good fit there....but gordon scares me...freeman scares me and doesnt appeal to me much....derek henry, while intriguing, doesnt do it for me there....dalvin cook? i drafted him in the 3rd a couple of years ago and prob would have won it if he stayed healthy(also had cmac and kamara)....but im not super excited about him either although i like him more than henry or freeman

 

i see potential 2nd round wr targets coming closer  to the top WRs than i do the 2nd round rbs coming close to the top 4 rbs...and i think david johnson can approach those top 4 guys if not actually be one of them 

 

 

 

 

Edited by forever in debt to mo lewis
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32 minutes ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

i see potential 2nd round wr targets coming closer  to the top WRs than i do the 2nd round rbs coming close to the top 4 rbs...and i think david johnson can approach those top 4 guys if not actually be one of them 

 

 

Why not draft receivers in the 1st and 2nd round?  Is it a 2rb/2wr/2flex league?  Or a standard league?

 

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51 minutes ago, darin3 said:

I'd be happy to get high-RB2 / low-RB1 numbers out of DJ this year since I own him in a dynasty format with Barkley as my RB1.

 

In redraft leagues there'd be no way I take him at 1.05.

Agreed, I'm taking quite a few WRs before him. 

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i wouldnt put chubb in the top 5...but i dont think its a stretch to have him in the next....in the top 10

 

hunt is still out 8 games...so you know chubb will be the guy for at least that long....

 

if chubb is healthy and rolling they wont slow that down by forcing hunt in....theres something to be said about a guy thats been there with the team....a guy that went through camp and the first 8 weeks with the team....i dont think guys in the locker room will like to see a guys whos been there the whole time get "forced out" of work just for the sake of it.

 

that being said....teams watch what goes on around the league...people saw what happened to gurley last year...and they are hedging....it cost cleveland nothing to add a talented back to a team they think its ready to make a major jump....im sure hunt will be worked in...hes a talent for sure....and if things are going well in cleveland they may decide to lighten chubbs load(oh god i cant believe i said those words)....but if the offense is humming the way some people think they can, and the way it looks like they could on paper, there will still be enough there for chubb to be a rb1 even with some sort of split....chubb will still be the first in line IMO

 

when i watch my own homer team i see a team that is deep with 4 backs that can play...and in todays NFL you may need them all..and the patriots do use them all....they had 3 guys that can play and even decided to spend a 3rd on another one....

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Chubb will be a work horse, from the time he took over the starting job (week 7) last year he had 18 or more carries in 7 of the 10 games, One of those was a runaway loss to the Texans, another was the loss in the finale at BAL. He averaged 17.6 attempts/game as a starter.

 

That will continue this year, they may try to throw a bit more but should lean on the good running game if the line can block. Duke will fill in a bit, but more in the passing game. When Hunt comes back he will be slowly mixed in, and will bite into the load of both guys a bit. (Duke could still be traded before the deadline which is before Hunt returns). I think they will be smart and lighten the load for Chubb as the season winds down, especially if the playoffs are on the horizon. 

 

Don't think they even know what their long terms plans are at RB, how the Chubb/Hunt combo works will play a big role in how they handle it. Since Hunt cost so little, either one could be used to acquire other assets. 

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On 8/7/2019 at 11:00 PM, mitpdub said:

Isn’t the new coach pass first (happy)? They have a running QB, and their line questionable ?  

line is a bit questionable but they did add marcus gilbert....pass happy? maybe...but it is a rookie qb and you and rbs can still produce points in "pass happy" schemes.....so i dont see where that line of thinking would influence anything.......if you actually read the thread theres evidence that supports that rbs are able to achieve things with running qbs at the helm

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On 7/30/2019 at 2:11 PM, League_Champion said:

DJ went 5th in a couple of my early drafts. I think everyone is expecting a big bounce back year from him. I like it. 

Cardinals O-line is sketchy.  At best.  All over local radio that they need drastic Oline upgrades when teams start cutting players.  

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On 8/2/2019 at 9:23 AM, darin3 said:

I'd be happy to get high-RB2 / low-RB1 numbers out of DJ this year since I own him in a dynasty format with Barkley as my RB1.

 

In redraft leagues there'd be no way I take him at 1.05.

I was intially taking this mindset on David Johnson.  But now my tune is changing.  His floor last year was low RB1.  But, upon more research, i didn't realize how historically bad that offense was and while he was used heavily; he was utilized incredibly inefficiently; even with 50 catches.

 

Kingsman is coming in with a QB he wanted, and an offense the QB ran in college hat heavily utilizes the RB position in space and the passing game. The 'coach talk' is all about getting Johnson heavily involved in space.  I think one beat writer said something to the effect of  Johnson getting 100 catches.  That is almost certainty hyperbole, but it's favorable for preseaon wishing.

 

I get the reservations on Johnson.  He was RB9ish last year; but the ppg  was considerably lower than the top tier.  The output was inefficient and you still need to count a rookie scheme and a rookie QB making him a focal point.  Methinks DJs floor is somewhat high.  But, if you nab him in a draft, you are likely betting on a substantial ppg improvement from last year.

 

Our high stakes  conglomerate has 1.4 in two leagues.  I'm hoping that Elliot is back or someone in the top 3 makes a surprise pick.

Edited by Bobby Brown
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