QB TDs Worth 6 pts

[heehawks]

So my long time local has had QBs score 6 pts per TD since the inception.

 

My question to you all, does that change where you would select the top QBs?  I have seen Manning go #1 back in the hayday, and I am sure Mahomes will go somewhere in the first this year.  I am curious to know if you guys think waiting on a QB is still the play here, knowing QBs score hugh. 

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

6pt TDs bump them a tiny bit, but not much. 

 

What you’re looking for is the scoring difference between players, not total points scored. If Mahomes repeats his 50 TD year, and the 2nd QB scores 38, you’re talking about an extra 24pts across 16 games vs a 4pt TD league. And most likely Mahomes won’t repeat. 

 

One other small effect it has is it diminishes the benefit of running QBs a bit. 

[Shaft]

I'm in a 16 team league with 6 points for passing TDs and QBs fly off the board. One year, Newton was drafted as the #1 QB. I've been in this league for about 15 years; these guys aren't scrubs. A few points to people mouthing off about drafting QBs esrly:

 

1. Because of the 6 point TDs, there is a greater disparity in the scoring and final totals compared to 4 point TDs. You can't compare the two equally.

 

2. In a 16 team league, everyone is trying to grab 2 QBs. If a person drafts 3, another team is screwed. I've seen a team without a starting QB because of a bye week and no QBs available.

 

3. QBs have significant value and good ones can be traded for WR2s.

 

I'm expecting the QBs to start flying off the board in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[Shaft]

7 minutes ago, LosGatosEnFuegos said:

6pt TDs bump them a tiny bit, but not much. 

 

What you’re looking for is the scoring difference between players, not total points scored. If Mahomes repeats his 50 TD year, and the 2nd QB scores 38, you’re talking about an extra 24pts across 16 games vs a 4pt TD league. And most likely Mahomes won’t repeat. 

 

 

 

In one league the difference is 72 points and the other is 48, so there is a bigger difference between the QBs. But you're comparing the top ranked QBs. Compare #1 to #15 and see the gap widen.

[Def.]

The more teams there are, the greater the importance on a high point scoring starter.  But that's because of availability, not because of the difference in points on a TD.  Less availability, more demand, higher cost.  Would say you start to notice this in 14-teamers and becomes more apparent as the number of teams rises.  In the 32-teamers with team QB position would regularly see round 18-20 QBs off the board in the first 64 picks.  No one wants to be the chump starting the team with Brock Osweiler at the helm.  

 

 

[Shaft]

12 minutes ago, Def. said:

The more teams there are, the greater the importance on a high point scoring starter.  But that's because of availability, not because of the difference in points on a TD. 

 

 

I think it's both, but it varies on the league settings. In my 6 pt passing TD league, 16 teams:

 

1. Patrick Mahomes finished with 589 points (36.8 per game)

2. Matt Ryan -487 points (30.4 ppg)

 

 

9. Philip Rivers- 411 points (25.7 ppg)

 

RBs. 

1. Todd Gurley -326 points (23.3 ppg)

2.  Saquon Barkley- 315 points (19.7 ppg)

 

 

9. Joe Mixon -204 points (14.6 ppg)

 

There was a bigger disparity in scoring between our top QBs vs our top RBs. 

 

Edited August 14, 2019 by Shaft

[Big Country]

Do you only start 1 RB then?

 

The required RB starters is greater in most leagues, so the comparison needs to be expanded.

 

If using the worst starter method for evaluating value, and using a standard 12 team league with line up reqs of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE you'd be using the #12 QB, #24 RB, #24 WR and #12 TE as your baseline for calculating value at each position.

 

You also have to factor in the massive outlier that Mahomes season this last year was. I generally prefer to take at least 3 years worth of scoring into account.

 

What the post above shows is actually how much steeper the drop likely was at RB compared to QB - QB 2-9, which is the bulk of the range of QB starters, had a 5 PPG difference. RB2 to 9 (again, adjusting for the outlier of Gurley's performance since we don't have multiple years worth of data to smooth this), which is just the RB1s also had a 5 PPG difference. What's likely to be steeper if we extend this to the full range of required starters - the drop from QB9 to 12 or the drop from RB9 to 24.

 

The reason QBs are likely so valuable to the league Shaft is in is more to do with league size as Def. pointed out, and I'd venture a guess there is more in the scoring than just a shift from 4 to 6 point passing TDs to account for the massive amount of points the QBs score compared to other positions (50% more than the top RBs)

 

With Mahomes, in order for him to justify his ADP, he will need to essentially repeat last years performance and not have anyone else close the gap on him. He was so valuable last year because he was being taken in the 14th or later.

[Bobby Brown]

6 hours ago, Big Country said:

The reason QBs are likely so valuable to the league Shaft is in is more to do with league size

Yes.  This. 

[Shaft]

I agree with all of the above, as I said the size of the league matters. I just think the scoring disparity is magnified in a bigger league. 

[purplemonster]

My League is very QB friendly which I don't necessarily like and yes it does make a difference. Ours is 20 yards per point and six points for TD's.  

 

So for instance Mahomes last year in our league had 579 pts

 

The 5th qb was Watson with 432.  

 

That is almost 150 pts or close to 10 pts/wk

 

Standard scoring I see Mahomes 417 

and Watson 332.  That is 85 pts or 4-5 pts/wk.

 

 

Obviously that exaggerated somewhat because of Mahomes exceptional season.  But I have no serious reason to doubt he'll regress hugely.  He still the heavy favorite to be the top quarterback and yes with the scoring you would consider taking him earlier in your league. 

[purplemonster]

And for funsies, last yr I had Mahomes, Gurley, Hill, Hopkins (traded for him had James Conner originally), R. Woods, OJ Howard in a 12 team league. Outscored every team in my league at least by 20 pts/game on average. And I got 5th place.  No joke.  

 

Probably could play that season a hundred times and not do as poorly.  

 

That didnt help anyone but had to get it out of my system. . 

 

Edited August 14, 2019 by purplemonster

[Shaft]

54 minutes ago, purplemonster said:

My League is very QB friendly which I don't necessarily like and yes it does make a difference. Ours is 20 yards per point and six points for TD's.  

 

So for instance Mahomes last year in our league had 579 pts

 

The 5th qb was Watson with 432.  

 

That is almost 150 pts or close to 10 pts/wk

 

Standard scoring I see Mahomes 417 

and Watson 332.  That is 85 pts or 4-5 pts/wk.

 

 

Obviously that exaggerated somewhat because of Mahomes exceptional season.  But I have no serious reason to doubt he'll regress hugely.  He still the heavy favorite to be the top quarterback and yes with the scoring you would consider taking him earlier in your league. 

Yup, Watson scored for 431 in our league.

[Chief Dick]

1 hour ago, purplemonster said:

And for funsies, last yr I had Mahomes, Gurley, Hill, Hopkins (traded for him had James Conner originally), R. Woods, OJ Howard in a 12 team league. Outscored every team in my league at least by 20 pts/game on average. And I got 5th place.  No joke.  

 

Probably could play that season a hundred times and not do as poorly.  

 

That didnt help anyone but had to get it out of my system. . 

 

 

It's like I've always said: fantasy football is 91% luck and 9% luck.

[League_Champion]

For me it wouldn't change anything. All QBs are still playing under the same scoring whether it's 3, 6 or 10 points per TD. 

[c-diddy]

On 8/13/2019 at 6:09 PM, LosGatosEnFuegos said:

6pt TDs bump them a tiny bit, but not much. 

 

What you’re looking for is the scoring difference between players, not total points scored. If Mahomes repeats his 50 TD year, and the 2nd QB scores 38, you’re talking about an extra 24pts across 16 games vs a 4pt TD league. And most likely Mahomes won’t repeat. 

 

One other small effect it has is it diminishes the benefit of running QBs a bit. 

 

 

Most of the replies in this thread make little or no sense.

 

Of course 6point TD QB scoring league make the top end QBs huge difference makers.

 

The math in this reply, for example, is WAY off.

 

QB1 (Mahomes)= 50 TD x 4pt = 200

QB2 (tier guy)= 38 TD x 4pt= 152

48 point difference on the season

 

QB1 (Mahomes)= 50 TD x 6pt = 300

QB2 (tier guy)= 38 TD x 6pt= 228

72 point difference on the season

 

That's the equivalent of having a RB, WR or TE scoring 20 TDs on the season instead of 8.  HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Also, for the record Mahomes will NOT regress to any less than 44 TD passes this season, and it's not inconceivable that he could actually improve!

 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2019 by c-diddy

[Big Country]

6 minutes ago, c-diddy said:

 

 

Most of the replies in this thread make little or no sense.

 

Of course 6point TD QB scoring league make the top end QBs huge difference makers.

 

The math in this reply, for example, is WAY off.

 

QB1 (Mahomes)= 50 TD x 4pt = 200

QB2 (tier guy)= 38 TD x 4pt= 152

48 point difference on the season

 

QB1 (Mahomes)= 50 TD x 6pt = 300

QB2 (tier guy)= 38 TD x 6pt= 228

72 point difference on the season

 

That's the equivalent of having a RB, WR or TE scoring 20 TDs on the season instead of 8.  HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Also, for the record Mahomes will NOT regress to any less than 44 TD passes this season, and it's not inconceivable that he could actually improve!

 

 

 

 

72-48=24 which is the difference in the two scenarios. You have not added 72 points to the difference in the scoring range within the position, you have added 24 points to it.

[Def.]

[Def.]

Oh also, the amount of times the same QB has thrown for 40+ TDs in back to back seasons = 1

 

Let that sink in.  This pass happy era with some of the statistically greatest throwers ever like Manning, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees and only once has one of them put a back to back season effort of 40+.  Food for thought... 

[purplemonster]

I gave exact numbers from my league as did Shaft.  So the difference is right there, it didnt require much math.  

 

I think the biggest reason for regression is the fact teams have had a whole offeason of tape to mull over and will be devising strategies.  Physically he's well and has most of his supporting cast back, except for Hunt, but that could be significant.  I think he'll regress some personally, but not a ton. 

[Big Country]

Your examples though are looking at the entirety of your scoring system.

 

The question is what effect does moving from 4pt to 6 pt TDs have. The answer to that is that the affect is fairly minimal for that one change.

 

Adding in that your league has 16 teams, does a half point per completion and does 1 pt per 20 yards are all additional factors that affect the value of the position.

 

 

Last year QB1 had 50TDs and QB12 had 26 TDs, at a 2 pt. per TD difference that is a 48 point difference across all of the top 12 QBs. When you consider that QB2 had 39 TDs, it's only a 26 point difference across the entire season for the position.

 

2017 - QB1 had 34 TDs, QB12 had 22, a difference of 24 points over the course of the season across the entire starting position for a 12 team league.

 

2016 - The range is 40 TDs to 26 TDs, a difference of 28 points across the position.

 

2015 - The range is 36 down to 29 TDs, a difference of 14 points over the course of the season.

 

2014 - Range is 40 TDs to 27 TDs, a difference of 26 points over the season

 

2013 - Range is 55 (Manning) to 24, a difference of 42 points (QB 2 had 39 TDs, which would make the range 30 points)

 

The reason I showed all the way back to 2013 is to show that in most years, the range of TD passes is so tightly bunched, that a change from 4 to 6 points has minimal overall impact on QB value. It takes a major outlier, ie record breaking year, coupled with no other QB being close in TD throws, to make an impact on value.

 

[stevegrab]

I'd say to the OP "do whatever you've already been doing" since he says the league has been 6pt TDs for QBs since inception.

 

Our league has always been 6PT TDs for QBs, and they generally have more value to us than another 12 team league where they only get 3-4 points per TD. But we also have lower points for passing yardage, only one per 50yards, vs 1 per 10 receiving and rushing. Many more RB/WR get large yardage bonus points (say 8-10) than QBs (5-6 is good). 

[purplemonster]

On 8/15/2019 at 4:27 PM, Big Country said:

Your examples though are looking at the entirety of your scoring system.

 

The question is what effect does moving from 4pt to 6 pt TDs have. The answer to that is that the affect is fairly minimal for that one change.

 

Adding in that your league has 16 teams, does a half point per completion and does 1 pt per 20 yards are all additional factors that affect the value of the position.

 

 

Last year QB1 had 50TDs and QB12 had 26 TDs, at a 2 pt. per TD difference that is a 48 point difference across all of the top 12 QBs. When you consider that QB2 had 39 TDs, it's only a 26 point difference across the entire season for the position.

 

2017 - QB1 had 34 TDs, QB12 had 22, a difference of 24 points over the course of the season across the entire starting position for a 12 team league.

 

2016 - The range is 40 TDs to 26 TDs, a difference of 28 points across the position.

 

2015 - The range is 36 down to 29 TDs, a difference of 14 points over the course of the season.

 

2014 - Range is 40 TDs to 27 TDs, a difference of 26 points over the season

 

2013 - Range is 55 (Manning) to 24, a difference of 42 points (QB 2 had 39 TDs, which would make the range 30 points)

 

The reason I showed all the way back to 2013 is to show that in most years, the range of TD passes is so tightly bunched, that a change from 4 to 6 points has minimal overall impact on QB value. It takes a major outlier, ie record breaking year, coupled with no other QB being close in TD throws, to make an impact on value.

 

 

I understand your point, a TD change from 4 to 6 is not the end all be all.  For simplicity's sake, let's say it makes a 2 pt/ week difference each week, every week.  That's actually fairly significant.  For perspective 2 pts/wk is is the difference between Diggs and Julio Jones, or the difference from Peyton Barber to Sony Michel.  So I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the difference. But you are correct that it's not revolutionary, but you do need to alter rankings a bit, especially for a big hitter like Mahomes.    

Edited August 19, 2019 by purplemonster

[Shorttynaz]

Personally I don't think it makes that much of a difference, unless you think someone will score, on average more than 1TD a game over the next few QBs.