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Shaft

David Johnson Thread

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As I'm prepping for my draft I'm starting to wonder, from a fantasy football perspective, if David Johnson is overrated? I'm sure I will get some flack for this, and I do like him as a player, but what has he done for us lately? I'm sorry for the Janet Jackson reference, but seriously! We keep riding on potential and live in some fantasy nostalgic land based on his one great season. He's only averaging 4.1 yards a carry for his career and hasn't done anything special since 2016. Many people have him as the 5th overall pick and I'm just starting to wonder if he's overrated.

 

 

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I don't know how much stock you put in profootballfocus rankings (I think they are decent) but he rated really poorly last year.  That's part of my pessimism.  Along with a poor OL. I don't watch many Cardinal games. He didn't seem to have much power and seemed smaller than I remember.  Maybe my imagination. 

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24 minutes ago, purplemonster said:

 

how much stock you put in profootballfocus rankings

 

 

PFF seems to have trouble differentiating between a poor performance because of a poor supporting cast and legitimate poor play.  In other words, they're going to give a bad grade to someone who averages 3.6 ypc even if the offensive line and quarterback are horrible.  And Arizona had the worst offensive line and worst quarterback play in the NFL last year.  Although, maybe a good running back should be able to average 4.0+ ypc regardless of his teammates.

 

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Posted (edited)

He had 2 full seasons as a starter, with the injury season in between.  2016 was 4.2 YPC, 80 recs, 2000+ total yards and 20 total TDs.  That was a monster season

2018 was 3.6 YPC, almost 1400 total yards, and 10 TDs.  That was an incredibly inefficient season.  2016 and 2017 are our only 2 season long metrics we have.

I don't think it can be overstated how bad and unimaginative that Arizona's play calling was last year.  Maybe the worst offense of the decade, as supported by statistics.  DJ was primarily used as a run up the middle battering ram against 8 man fronts.  It was shades of 1970s and early 1980s NFL and it didn't work.  Through it all, DJ was still a top 10 fantasy RB.

This year's scheme in Arizona is supposed to be a 180 of last years.  The floor is likely low end RB1.  If the offense is adequate, DJ will likely be a top 5 RB.  If the offense exceeds "adequacy;" think Todd Gurley the year before Sean Mcvay and the 1st year under McVay; DJ being the #1 RB in FF is possible.

I think DJ probably has a higher ceiling than any other RB other than Barkley.  And his floor isn't so bad either. But, that low end RB1 floor is very real.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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11 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

He had 2 full seasons as a starter, with the injury season in between.  2016 was 4.2 YPC, 80 recs, 2000+ total yards and 20 total TDs.  That was a monster season

2018 was 3.6 YPC, almost 1400 total yards, and 10 TDs.  That was an incredibly inefficient season.  2016 and 2017 are our only 2 season long metrics we have.

I don't think it can be overstated how bad and unimaginative that Arizona's play calling was last year.  Maybe the worst offense of the decade, as supported by statistics.  DJ was primarily used as a run up the middle battering ram against 8 man fronts.  It was shades of 1970s and early 1980s NFL and it didn't work.  Through it all, DJ was still a top 10 fantasy RB.

This year's scheme in Arizona is supposed to be a 180 of last years.  The floor is likely low end RB1.  If the offense is adequate, DJ will likely be a top 5 RB.  If the offense exceeds "adequacy;" think Todd Gurley the year before Sean Mcvay and the 1st year under McVay; DJ being the #1 RB in FF is possible.

I think DJ probably has a higher ceiling than any other RB other than Barkley.  And his floor isn't so bad either. But, that low end RB1 floor is very real.

 

Could not agree more to this, he is still a top 5 back on a bottom 5 team last year.  The jury is still out on IF the Cards can get back to an average team with new "unproven" leadership.  I do think that Kyler will take a few TDs away inside the 10.  I see DJ as a double threat and should see a ton of receptions in addition to 80-100 yards most games.  Rosen was a sitting duck and could not move the chains, that will change with a mobile QB and should keep the offense on the field more this year.

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8 hours ago, Bonedaddies said:

 

Could not agree more to this, he is still a top 5 back on a bottom 5 team last year.  The jury is still out on IF the Cards can get back to an average team with new "unproven" leadership.  I do think that Kyler will take a few TDs away inside the 10.  I see DJ as a double threat and should see a ton of receptions in addition to 80-100 yards most games.  Rosen was a sitting duck and could not move the chains, that will change with a mobile QB and should keep the offense on the field more this year.

 

+1

AZ is already better than last year.  Not great strides better, but DJ should be able to improve his performance with a much more quick and mobile QB that can extend plays.

 

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All I gotta say is if he's on the board and it's my pick, I'm passing.  

 

This defense looks putrid.  They can stop no one.  Why's this matter?  Kyler Murray will be passing ~45 times a game playing catch up.  Their receivers are Meh.  Their O-line was the worst in the league last year and Keim did NOTHING to improve it.  Mix that with a rookie QB and yeah.  David Johnson won't put up the same numbers you'd be getting out of your 6th round RB.  I'm 100% letting this guy be someone else's mistake.  

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This topic interested me so I looked at 2016-17 highlights vs 2018 highlights and I don't know if it's my imagination but he doesn't really look the same. And it's not necessarily physically it's the way he runs. In the earlier highlights he's doing jump cuts, fighting for every yard, trying to bury guys. If you watch the run from the first 15-20 seconds he breaks about four tackles and runs for 60 yards when he would have had no gain. There's another one at 8 minutes in that first video where he gives about four jump cuts. I don't see much of that at all in last year's video.  Is it because he got paid? Is it because the Cardinals sucked? No room to run?  The only thing that stayed consistent was he has really nice hands. Which is good because basically he's a good receiver even if he's not burying people.

 

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25 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

So Keim has put together one of, if not, the worst O-lines in the league every season for the past 6 years, and even this article states the moves he made this year are a head scratcher.  

 

Thanks for reminding me that I will not be going anywhere near DJ this season.  :)

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Shorttynaz said:

So

Trading for Marcus Gilbert was not a head scratcher.  You stated they did nothing, in caps even, to upgrade the line.  Acquiring two new O line starters, new offensive coaches, and a new scheme is substantial.  It is similar to what Seattle did last year and their line play improved significantly.  

 

Maybe the Cardinals run blocking will still suck, but they've certainly done a lot more than nothing in the offseason.

 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown

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25 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Trading for Marcus Gilbert was not a head scratcher.  You stated they did nothing, in caps even, to upgrade the line.  Acquiring two new O line starters, new offensive coaches, and a new scheme is substantial.  It is similar to what Seattle did last year and their line play improved significantly.  

 

Maybe the Cardinals run blocking will still suck, but they've certainly done a lot more than nothing in the offseason.

 

 

Ok, so I did step in something stinky when I said they did 'nothing'.  What I should have said was Keim didn't do nearly enough.  I mean he hired a coach who has shown (so far) he's going to use the clap count.  That alone puts a bad O-line at a disadvantage as the defensive line will get the same jump the O-line does.  

 

What I was getting at initially was to whomever takes a chance on DJ, well best of luck to you.  Personally I view this guy as the epitome of the dreaded fantasy "first round bust". 

 

I mean he's already taken that crown twice.  

 

If the guy came with an ADP in the 2nd or 3rd round, it might be worth the risk.  But most lists he's top 5 overall.  

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10 hours ago, Shorttynaz said:

 

 

What I was getting at initially was to whomever takes a chance on DJ, well best of luck to you.  Personally I view this guy as the epitome of the dreaded fantasy "first round bust". 

 

I mean he's already taken that crown twice.  

 

 

I agree that there is some risk with DJ; and you may be right, a disastrous 2019 is not completely out of the question for any player.  But, you're overflowing with hyperbole.  DJ didn't live up to his ADP last year; but he was still RB 9/10 in PPR formats.  Bell, Fournette, OBJ, and Gronk (in 1.5 PPR for TE leagues) were all guys who didn't become a 1 at their respective positions. That is 4 out of 12 guys, 25% of 1st round picks; that had less value than DJ.    DJ disappointed a bit in 2018; but he was nowhere near the king of busts.  

Even if the run blocking sucks in 19; and it can't get much worse than last year,  the run and gun approach should still give him space and lanes.  He is supposed to line up in the slot as WR a lot; a position that suits his talents and a position target that Murray threw to a lot in college. If Arizona is playing from behind a lot, that should improve DJs value as a pass catching back.  He has little competition for playing time.  The scheme is supposed to result in a mother-load of NFL snaps per game; relative to the norm. 

Everyone who has played this game recognizes how important scheme and opportunity are for fantasy value.  Barring a complete flop by Kingsbury and Murray; the PPR ceiling is high.  Assuming a complete flop, the floor still seems relatively low.  Stating you can get a similar RB in the 6th round with these opportunities and circumstances is just silly.  

 

 

 

 

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I sit at 6 tonight in a 12 team work league...low stakes, no big deal.

 

I would like to say all the posts above were great so thank you.

 

Pretty sure Barkley, CMac, Kamara, and Bell are going 1-4. I then assume Zeke goes. 

 

I have no issue with Johnson at 6, but would hope Zeke slips. The situation he was in last year was the worst it could get and they will find a way to get him the ball in space. It is what he needs and his floor doesn't scare me away.

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3 hours ago, gilthorp said:

I sit at 6 tonight in a 12 team work league...low stakes, no big deal.

 

I would like to say all the posts above were great so thank you.

 

Pretty sure Barkley, CMac, Kamara, and Bell are going 1-4. I then assume Zeke goes. 

 

I have no issue with Johnson at 6, but would hope Zeke slips. The situation he was in last year was the worst it could get and they will find a way to get him the ball in space. It is what he needs and his floor doesn't scare me away.

Interesting because I have the 6th pick in high stakes draft and I'm passing on DJ. I drafted him last year and took so long for me trade him, I can't deal with it this year. 

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Zeke 4, DJ 5, so I took Bell.

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Just now, gilthorp said:

Zeke 4, DJ 5, so I took Bell.

I'm considering something similar, high risk/high reward. Actually, I dont consider the risk that high.

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I am also passing, now I admit I may be biased as I had him the last two years (missed 15 games in 2017 and just bad last year), but that offense looks terrible so far.  Rookie qb, patch work offense line and well below receiver talent.  No thanks i would rather go top tier receiver and come back with two lower rated rbs next two picks. 

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6 hours ago, Shaft said:

I'm considering something similar, high risk/high reward. Actually, I dont consider the risk that high.

No I don't think the risk is that high, at least in PPR.  I just don't think he'll perform to his ADP personally.  I think we are putting a lot of pressure on a freshman QB too to really change this offense.  Even if he is that good it may take him a while to figure it out. 

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10 minutes ago, purplemonster said:

No I don't think the risk is that high, at least in PPR.  I just don't think he'll perform to his ADP personally.  I think we are putting a lot of pressure on a freshman QB too to really change this offense.  Even if he is that good it may take him a while to figure it out. 

I was talking about Bell, not DJ. Lol

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On 8/21/2019 at 6:17 PM, dougsul said:

I am also passing, now I admit I may be biased as I had him the last two years (missed 15 games in 2017 and just bad last year), but that offense looks terrible so far.  Rookie qb, patch work offense line and well below receiver talent.  No thanks i would rather go top tier receiver and come back with two lower rated rbs next two picks. 

This!

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Week 1 over-reaction time.  

David Johnson had 25.6 PPR points today.  He had more than 25 points once last year. 

18 carries for over 4.5 yards per carry. There couldn't have been too many games, if any, he had that good of a YPC average last year.  

6 catches with an additional 55 yards and a TD. The motherload of his points came when the Cardinals were down.  

For all of my preseason hype of Johnson,   I think I have 1 share of the guy in my 8 combined redraft/best ball leagues.  If Elliot wouldn't have signed before the season started, I would of had a much bigger exposure to DJ.  

It'll be fun to see how the season works out; but, Week 1 for Johnson was a testament to why his last years mediocrity doesn't mean that this year can't be a goldmine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown

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2 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Week 1 over-reaction time.  

David Johnson had 25.6 PPR points today.  He had more than 25 points once last year. 

18 carries for over 4.5 yards per carry. There couldn't have been too many games, if any, he had that good of a YPC average last year.  

6 catches with an additional 55 yards and a TD. The motherload of his points came when the Cardinals were down big.  

For all of my preseason hype of Johnson,   I think I have 1 share of the guy in my 8 combined redraft/best ball leagues.  If Elliot wouldn't have signed before the season started, I would of had a much bigger exposure to him.  

It'll be fun to see how the season works out; but, Week 1 for Johnson was a testament to why his last years mediocrity doesn't mean that this year can't be a goldmine. 

 

 

 

I was curious especially since the Cardinals started off so rough against a subpar defense, but time will tell. He was still drafted in the first rounds in most drafts, so it's not like he's being undervalued. It's clear, as Murray goes, so will this Cardinals' offense. 

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7 hours ago, Shaft said:

 

I was curious especially since the Cardinals started off so rough against a subpar defense, but time will tell. He was still drafted in the first rounds in most drafts, so it's not like he's being undervalued. It's clear, as Murray goes, so will this Cardinals' offense. 

Murray was  basically horrendous through 3 quarters today.  They kept doing stuff in the 4th and looked okay. 

Murray threw 54 times today and Johnson had over 13% of those targets. I already mentioned how this massive play strategy should benefit fantasy value for DJ.  It will be advantageous fantasy wise for everyone on the team if they stick with it. 

David Johnson fell to mid 2nd round in a league I drafted in on last Thursday.  I had temporary visions of starting my draft of Elliott and DJ, as I would have picked DJ at 1.5 after the top 4 consensus.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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