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Superbowl: 49ers @ KCC


Bier Meister
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QB: Strong edge KCC

RB: Strong edge SF

WR: edge KCC

TE: very slight edge to SF for kittle's blocking (rec is a push)

PK: push

ST: edge KCC

Defense: Strong edge SF

Coaching: edge SF

 

Keys for SF:

- minimizing mahomes. do not let him roll right. cannot give him a third chance to throw.... he makes a first defender miss. sf needs that second guy in to alter the pass.

- minimize the big play (something SF is susceptible to) , and KCC can thrive on.

- run efficiently to open up play action.

- coverage of d. williams in the passing game... very sneaky weapon 

- turn kcc tds into fgs

 

Keys for KC:

- pass protection for mahomes

- contain SF's running game

- build a lead where SF needs to pass more than they would like

 

 

31-27 SF

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29 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

QB: Strong edge KCC

RB: Strong edge SF

WR: edge KCC

TE: very slight edge to SF for kittle's blocking (rec is a push)

PK: push

ST: edge KCC

Defense: Strong edge SF

Coaching: edge SF

Victory Pants: Strong Edge KC

Victory Hair: Strong Edge SF

 

Keys for SF:

- minimizing mahomes. do not let him roll right. cannot give him a third chance to throw.... he makes a first defender miss. sf needs that second guy in to alter the pass.

- minimize the big play (something SF is susceptible to) , and KCC can thrive on.

- run efficiently to open up play action.

- coverage of d. williams in the passing game... very sneaky weapon 

- turn kcc tds into fgs

 

Keys for KC:

- pass protection for mahomes

- contain SF's running game

- build a lead where SF needs to pass more than they would like

 

 

31-27 SF

 

Fixed for accuracy.

 

Gonna be a good one old friend. And I like your break down. The only thing I would change is Mahomes is equally good both left and right. Once he breaks that pocket he can do ANYTHING. 

 

San Fran has to keep him in the pocket. I expect Reid to have more receivers near the line of scrimmage early to help with that for checkdowns - Damian Williams and Kelce.

 

The key to this game is intensity. Which team comes balls out from the get go and gets after it. I believe San Fran has that edge. The Chiefs will need to match that to win this game. 

 

On paper, your team is a better overall team. Should be fun.

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7 minutes ago, Chief Dick said:

 

Fixed for accuracy.

 

Gonna be a good one old friend. And I like your break down. The only thing I would change is Mahomes is equally good both left and right. Once he breaks that pocket he can do ANYTHING. 

 

San Fran has to keep him in the pocket. I expect Reid to have more receivers near the line of scrimmage early to help with that for checkdowns - Damian Williams and Kelce.

 

The key to this game is intensity. Which team comes balls out from the get go and gets after it. I believe San Fran has that edge. The Chiefs will need to match that to win this game. 

 

On paper, your team is a better overall team. Should be fun.

:tup:

 

Mahomes is more dangerous moving right.  That long run for a touchtown (rolling left) would not have happened vs SF due to teams speed (SF vs tenn). 

Yeah... I was thinking the same thing about quicker, shorter routes.  when mahomes gets time, he will find the open track star down field. very scary passing game.

 

:brew:

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1 minute ago, League_Champion said:

 I personally don't trust Andy Reid in a big spot, he tends to spin himself out when having to think on his feet. 

 

The good thing is that Mahomes offsets this somewhat. He helps a ton with the on field time management stuff, and he never panics. I think he is a good yin to Reid's yang.

 

That being sad, as I posted before: it's all about the mind set of the team coming into this game. Reid's Chiefs start slowly at times and they STILL have a lot of mental mistakes. My worry is that we will see:

 

Frank Clark jumping offsides again

 

Kelce et al with some early nerves

 

Some early penalties everywhere

 

The Chiefs have to come out fast and clean in this game. But hell, even if they don't, Mahomes has the power on that sideline to get everyone back on track. But San Fran is so good and technical in all phases of the game the Chiefs can't afford to get down against them. 

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1st off, leave it to an Eagles fan to talk smack about Andy Reid.  Dude is a great coach.  Coaches don't make plays, they just work to get the best out of their players.  Dude is probably one of the best in the game to do that - way better than Chip Kelly was and a far step ahead of Doug Pederson.  Don't knock the guy cause your GM didn't put together a solid enough team to take home the hardware when he was there. 

 

2nd off, I see some pretty thick homer goggles from 49ers fans.  Everyone still wants to talk up Richard Sherman.  He still makes the occasional smart play, but dude gets burnt, a lot.  If SF is smart, they will NOT put him on Tyreek Hill.  And sure, SF has a solid pass rush.  While talented, they're tasked with chasing down one of, if not the most mobile and elusive QBs in the game.  They might get to him a time or two, but it won't be enough to disrupt his game. 

 

The reason SF will struggle is their lack of a sound passing game.  Sure, the SF homers will try to tell me that Garoppolo is for real, and you have (a beat up) George Kittle, (an aging) Emanuel Sanders, and (a decent but raw rookie) in Samuel.  You will talk up the run game too, but look what just happened a few days ago, not to mention Colemans separated shoulder.  Tennessee has (well, had) the best run game in the NFL, and ask them how well that worked out for them against KC.  Their passing game is also similar to that of SF.  Just like they did with Tennessee, KC will make SF one dimensional, and that D line will eat up Garoppolo the entire 2nd half.  It's going to be ugly. 

 

I don't want to take the wind out of the sails of the 49ers fans, and I do like to cheer for the underdog to which that would have me cheering for SF.  That said, I really don't care who wins this game, and wouldn't be disappointed to see KC win either - all I want is a close game that comes down to the last drive.  Unfortunately, I don't see that happening in this one. 

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2 minutes ago, Shorttynaz said:

1st off, leave it to an Eagles fan to talk smack about Andy Reid.  Dude is a great coach.  Coaches don't make plays, they just work to get the best out of their players.  Dude is probably one of the best in the game to do that - way better than Chip Kelly was and a far step ahead of Doug Pederson.  Don't knock the guy cause your GM didn't put together a solid enough team to take home the hardware when he was there. 

 

2nd off, I see some pretty thick homer goggles from 49ers fans.  Everyone still wants to talk up Richard Sherman.  He still makes the occasional smart play, but dude gets burnt, a lot.  If SF is smart, they will NOT put him on Tyreek Hill.  And sure, SF has a solid pass rush.  While talented, they're tasked with chasing down one of, if not the most mobile and elusive QBs in the game.  They might get to him a time or two, but it won't be enough to disrupt his game. 

 

The reason SF will struggle is their lack of a sound passing game.  Sure, the SF homers will try to tell me that Garoppolo is for real, and you have (a beat up) George Kittle, (an aging) Emanuel Sanders, and (a decent but raw rookie) in Samuel.  You will talk up the run game too, but look what just happened a few days ago, not to mention Colemans separated shoulder.  Tennessee has (well, had) the best run game in the NFL, and ask them how well that worked out for them against KC.  Their passing game is also similar to that of SF.  Just like they did with Tennessee, KC will make SF one dimensional, and that D line will eat up Garoppolo the entire 2nd half.  It's going to be ugly. 

 

I don't want to take the wind out of the sails of the 49ers fans, and I do like to cheer for the underdog to which that would have me cheering for SF.  That said, I really don't care who wins this game, and wouldn't be disappointed to see KC win either - all I want is a close game that comes down to the last drive.  Unfortunately, I don't see that happening in this one. 

 

I love you.

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A key to the game for me:  Mahomes sack rate was crazy low this year at 3.4%.  Obviously, the niners will be the best D line he's faced in the playoffs, but I don't think they will be very close to their crazy rate of nearly 10% or so.  I'd expect 2 or 3 sacks, 5 or 6 and it swings to 49ers favor.  Niners have decent pressure with front four, so it's not like I expect Mahomes to be totally comfortable.  However, San Fran has been exposed a bit by QBs who can scramble and improvise.  

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@Shorttynaz

 

try not to pretend that you haven't had an anti-49er take since you have been on here.

 

I am a pretty objective 9ers fan.  JG is a contributor who can make critical conversions/plays.

 

my observations of him: 

- early on, i say enough of him that I was happy with the office going with him long term we can go back a few years to find my posts on it).  I never thought he was going to be a big number/stat guy, but made solid decisions.  his footwork was very good and put himself in a good spot to make a throw

- this year, especially early on, I felt like he was holding it a little long in the pocket... either allowing the pass rush to get in or not get enough power on his pass.  I believe coach caught this as i haven't seen as much of it the 2nd half of the season.

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10 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

A key to the game for me:  Mahomes sack rate was crazy low this year at 3.4%.  Obviously, the niners will be the best D line he's faced in the playoffs, but I don't think they will be very close to their crazy rate of nearly 10% or so.  I'd expect 2 or 3 sacks, 5 or 6 and it swings to 49ers favor.  Niners have decent pressure with front four, so it's not like I expect Mahomes to be totally comfortable.  However, San Fran has been exposed a bit by QBs who can scramble and improvise.  

... running qb's.   they have been solid vs scramblers.

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33 minutes ago, Shorttynaz said:

 

 

2nd off, I see some pretty thick homer goggles from 49ers fans.  Everyone still wants to talk up Richard Sherman.  He still makes the occasional smart play, but dude gets burnt, a lot.  If SF is smart, they will NOT put him on Tyreek Hill.  

 

 

 

 

 Sherman almost always covers a part of the field and not a guy.  I do agree with you that he can be exposed on deeper passes on occasion; and Tyreek Hill could certainly do that during the SB.  Sherman is not a spring chicken anymore.  However, I'm curious if you have statistical data to support your assertion.   Sherman was all pro and PFF ranked him as the best CB in 2019 noting the following:

 

ETA: stupid quote feature I can't seem to edit; but the second bullet dismisses the idea that Sherman is getting torched a lot. He rarely gets beat for a first down.    

Quote

The NFL’s 10th-best forced incompletion rate (17.6%) and has allowed only one touchdown across 517 coverage snaps.

- In 2019, he allowed only 8.4 yards per reception, third-best in the league, while just 13 of his 51 targets were converted to a first down, which  was the fourth-best total by any player at his position.

- Opposing quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of just 46.8 when throwing in Sherman's direction.

 

That second point seems to diametrically oppose the idea that Sherman gets "burnt a lot."

 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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12 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

@Shorttynaz

 

try not to pretend that you haven't had an anti-49er take since you have been on here.

 

I am a pretty objective 9ers fan.  JG is a contributor who can make critical conversions/plays.

 

my observations of him: 

- early on, i say enough of him that I was happy with the office going with him long term we can go back a few years to find my posts on it).  I never thought he was going to be a big number/stat guy, but made solid decisions.  his footwork was very good and put himself in a good spot to make a throw

- this year, especially early on, I felt like he was holding it a little long in the pocket... either allowing the pass rush to get in or not get enough power on his pass.  I believe coach caught this as i haven't seen as much of it the 2nd half of the season.

I'm not anti-49er.  Hell, I even said I'll probably cheer for them.  Not sure why you'd say that.  I'm anti-Sherman cause I think he's the most overrated DB in the game, but that's not here nor there.  He doesn't make or break a team.  All I simply said was that I believe KC is the better team.  

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3 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

 Sherman almost always covers a part of the field and not a guy.  I do agree with you that he can be exposed on deeper passes on occasion; and Tyreek Hill could certainly do that during the SB.  Sherman is not a spring chicken anymore.  However, I'm curious if you have statistical data to support your assertion.   Sherman was all pro and PFF ranked him as the best CB in 2019 noting the following:

I dont have statistical information.  He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.  I just recall throughout these past few seasons seeing more highlights of him getting burnt than I do see of him making plays.  I mean even during the Packers game the other day, I didn't watch the entire game cause I fell asleep - but I woke up and the next play Davante Adams burnt him for a 60 yard reception.  And to his credit, yes, I did see Sherman's interception to end the game.  I'm not going to take that away from him, but I will say that it was an overthrown ball.  He's a smart player, and was in the right place to catch it.  

 

I saw he was in a Twitter battle with Revis the other day.  I never really liked Revis, but dude had a point.  Told Sherman to cover someone all game and then talk about how great he is.  Instead of Sherman saying OK, you got me, he told Revis to enjoy watching him (Sherman) from his (Revis's) couch.  Pretty stupid response if you ask me.  Revis is retired, and it's not like Sherman is the reason the 49ers are in the superbowl.  

 

I just flat out don't like the guy.  He's talented, but he's not the best in the game, not anywhere close in my opinion.  

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1 hour ago, Bier Meister said:

QB: Strong edge KCC

RB: Strong edge SF

WR: edge KCC

TE: very slight edge to SF for kittle's blocking (rec is a push)

PK: push

ST: edge KCC

Defense: Strong edge SF

Coaching: edge SF

 

Keys for SF:

- minimizing mahomes. do not let him roll right. cannot give him a third chance to throw.... he makes a first defender miss. sf needs that second guy in to alter the pass.

- minimize the big play (something SF is susceptible to) , and KCC can thrive on.

- run efficiently to open up play action.

- coverage of d. williams in the passing game... very sneaky weapon 

- turn kcc tds into fgs

 

Keys for KC:

- pass protection for mahomes

- contain SF's running game

- build a lead where SF needs to pass more than they would like

 

 

31-27 SF

 

My assessment as an unbiased onlooker....

 

There are a lot more things that San Fran needs to do in order to win this game so I think you're right on that.  I disagree with you on a few things.

 

First, The WR assessment is a strong advantage in KC's favor, especially when considering D Williams out of the backfield. When Sammy Watkins is the 4th option, and your 5th option runs a 4.3/ 40, that is frightening. 

 

I would also argue that while San Fran's defense is better, I don't believe they have a strong edge in this particular matchup. The 9ers secondary is very vulnerable with the Chiefs speed at WR. The KC offensive line is ranked 4th in Pass protection this season so I don't see them being bullied by the 9ers d-line like we've seen. On the flip side, the 9ers o-line is ranked 15th in Pass pro, so the defensive line of KC could certainly swing the defensive battle a bit towards KC. KC's defense is greatly improved over the second half of the season. Honey Badger has been an absolute force, So again, I agree, overall, 9ers Def ha the edge BUT to me, in this particular matchup, its a slight edge. 

 

I also don't agree that the coaching edge is with San Fran. Lets not forget who designed the defense that shut down the 18-0 Patriots in 2007. Spags has a lot more weapons on this defense than he did back then. Chris Jones is a run stopping force and he came out of last weeks game without aggravation of his injury. 2 more weeks off will work wonders for him.  Andy Reid is an absolute force coming off a bye week (17-3). People will argue he has had some late game management issues, that's somewhat fair but overblown in my opinion. If we are going to knock him for that, lets not forget who the OC was for the Falcons in that utter collapse vs NE a few years ago. 

 

Ultimately this should be a classic game.   

 

QB: Strong edge KCC

RB: Strong edge SF

WR: Strong edge KCC

TE: Very slight edge to SF for Kittle's blocking (rec is a push)

PK: Push

ST: Edge KCC

Defense: Edge SF

Coaching: Edge KC

 

34-27 Chiefs

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5 hours ago, Shorttynaz said:

1st off, leave it to an Eagles fan to talk smack about Andy Reid.  Dude is a great coach.  Coaches don't make plays, they just work to get the best out of their players.  Dude is probably one of the best in the game to do that - way better than Chip Kelly was and a far step ahead of Doug Pederson.  Don't knock the guy cause your GM didn't put together a solid enough team to take home the hardware when he was there. 

 

2nd off, I see some pretty thick homer goggles from 49ers fans.  Everyone still wants to talk up Richard Sherman.  He still makes the occasional smart play, but dude gets burnt, a lot.  If SF is smart, they will NOT put him on Tyreek Hill.  And sure, SF has a solid pass rush.  While talented, they're tasked with chasing down one of, if not the most mobile and elusive QBs in the game.  They might get to him a time or two, but it won't be enough to disrupt his game. 

 

The reason SF will struggle is their lack of a sound passing game.  Sure, the SF homers will try to tell me that Garoppolo is for real, and you have (a beat up) George Kittle, (an aging) Emanuel Sanders, and (a decent but raw rookie) in Samuel.  You will talk up the run game too, but look what just happened a few days ago, not to mention Colemans separated shoulder.  Tennessee has (well, had) the best run game in the NFL, and ask them how well that worked out for them against KC.  Their passing game is also similar to that of SF.  Just like they did with Tennessee, KC will make SF one dimensional, and that D line will eat up Garoppolo the entire 2nd half.  It's going to be ugly. 

 

I don't want to take the wind out of the sails of the 49ers fans, and I do like to cheer for the underdog to which that would have me cheering for SF.  That said, I really don't care who wins this game, and wouldn't be disappointed to see KC win either - all I want is a close game that comes down to the last drive.  Unfortunately, I don't see that happening in this one. 

 

4 hours ago, Shorttynaz said:

I dont have statistical information.  He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.  I just recall throughout these past few seasons seeing more highlights of him getting burnt than I do see of him making plays.  I mean even during the Packers game the other day, I didn't watch the entire game cause I fell asleep - but I woke up and the next play Davante Adams burnt him for a 60 yard reception.  And to his credit, yes, I did see Sherman's interception to end the game.  I'm not going to take that away from him, but I will say that it was an overthrown ball.  He's a smart player, and was in the right place to catch it.  

 

I saw he was in a Twitter battle with Revis the other day.  I never really liked Revis, but dude had a point.  Told Sherman to cover someone all game and then talk about how great he is.  Instead of Sherman saying OK, you got me, he told Revis to enjoy watching him (Sherman) from his (Revis's) couch.  Pretty stupid response if you ask me.  Revis is retired, and it's not like Sherman is the reason the 49ers are in the superbowl.  

 

I just flat out don't like the guy.  He's talented, but he's not the best in the game, not anywhere close in my opinion.  

  Not sure where the 9ers homer goggles comment is coming from. I’ve seen nothing on here of actual knowledgeable 9er fans being anything but optimistic about a pretty darn good team. I do think they have a great shot to win but KC has a great shot as well they are a dynamic offensive juggernaut.

 

  And as far as the Sherman thing it seems like you may have the anti-Sherman goggles on. As you have stated you can’t stand him and in YOUR OPINION he’s not a very good CB. I’ve watched every second of every niner game this year and as BB stated he’s no spring chicken anymore but more than holds his own as a very solid CB. There’s a reason QBs don’t throw his way often and when they do they have a 48 QBR.
 

  I’m excited for the chance to win the big one again and am really glad that most everyone I’ve talked to already has KC raising the Lombardi... love being the underdog it only gives you room to go up! Not many expect them to beat mahomes and co. It has really been a year of proving themselves worthy week in and week out! So why the hell not go be special one more week in the big one!  
 

Hi Bier!   :brew: I’ll be having a beer in spirit with you during the game as we did when we watched the niners playoff game years ago at my house! ( And FYI as CD said Mikes hair is glorious) :lol:

 

Good Luck CD! And if it was any other year I’d be rooting for you as I really like KC and Reid! Should be a good one but I hope you piss your victory pants! :brew:

 

Let Go Niners!!:coach:

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35 minutes ago, Sunday Couch Potatoe said:

 

ove being the underdog it only gives you room to go up! Not many expect them to beat mahomes and co. 
 

 

Pump the brakes on the disrespect card a bit.  :lol:

I'm seeing the Vegas line at pickem to -1 with public money nearly 50/50.  The main points I hear repeated is that while KC has the decided edge at QB; San Fran is the better all around team.  So far this truly seems like a SB where there is no consensus on who is going to win.  

 

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SF is the better team with the better coach. KC is the better QB and sometimes that can make a BIG difference. So, basically what Bobby Brown just said. :lol:

 

A KC win would surprise no one. In a close game though, Andy Reid's legendary clock management could be in play.....so yeah I'm going SF.

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56 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Pump the brakes on the disrespect card a bit.  :lol:

I'm seeing the Vegas line at pickem to -1 with public money nearly 50/50.  The main points I hear repeated is that while KC has the decided edge at QB; San Fran is the better all around team.  So far this truly seems like a SB where there is no consensus on who is going to win.  

 

Um... Reread that paragraph again. I never said disrespect by analysts. I said the people IVE talked to in my circle of football fans are saying that about them not the consensus of experts. But It’s still funny how that was cut out of the part you grabbed to quote nicely done... :lol:

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Should be a great game.  I am surprised to see that the over/under for total TD's in this game is 3.5.  I'd take the over on that all day.  I'm pulling for KC for a few reasons.  Can't help but pull for Reid, have family in KC, and part of it might be just a Midwest thing.  Not to mention, there are a lot of people here in SoCal who pull for anything "West Coast," and I have a tendency to cheer for the underdog (or against what the majority is pulling for).  Don't particularly care for bandwagon fans, and the bottom half of CA is full of them.  Probably why they've never been able to sustain a pro team, much less two.  When things go sour, people go find something else to do.  

 

Speaking of underdogs, I certainly do not see the Niners as the underdog in this game.  To me, they are the more impressive team, in terms of what they've done coming into this matchup.  Their D is legit.  Ohter than the second CB, there are no weaknesses.  And, as much as I don't really like Sherman, he's still very good.  Good enough, anyway, that opposing QB's (even the best) tend to not throw his way as much as possible.   I do agree that he's not fast enough to keep up with Hill, so that may be a concern, but we'll see.

  

Another thing about SF.  They are seasoned.  Toughest second half of the season in the league, and they got through a big chunk of it with major missing pieces.  Still managed to grab the 1-seed (albeit barely).  Then, went on to absolutely throttle MIN and GB.  Meanwhile, KC trailed big in both of their two playoff games.  Ended up winning both convincingly, but it wasn't pure domination from the start like it was for SF.  Not sure that means anything, but SF just feels like they're on a mission.  There's no letting up with them.  KC, meanwhile, had better not get too comfortable coming from behind... If they get down big to SF, I don't see them coming back in the same fashion that they have the past two weeks.  

 

I look at it like this.  The SF defense and KC offense are arguably both the best in the league.  But, SF has a dominant offense as well.  The Chiefs' defense is average.  Eye test, statistically, or whatever form of measurement you want to use.  They're better than past years (when they were ranked 30+), but they're still middle of the pack.  Coaching and special teams, you can make an argument for either side.  Reid has the experience.  Shanahan has the pedigree.  Butker is great, but Gould isn't bad himself.  And, as much as I love the speed of the Chiefs, that James guy is pretty fast also.  So, it comes down to which defense can make the opposing offense the most uncomfortable.  And, as much as I would like KC to win this game, I can envision SF's defense dominating this game much easier than I can imagine the KC defense stopping the Niners rushing attack.  

 

All of that said, Mahomes is special.  And Jimmy G isn't.  Big edge for KC there.  That's not to say that Jimmy isn't talented, but as much as I wouldn't want to be behind in this game if I"m KC, I could say the same about SF.  Man, this is a tough one to call.  I think that is what it comes down to.  Which team will win... the one with the best player on the planet with the average defense, or the team that is REALLY good on both sides of the ball, but has an average QB.

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1 hour ago, Sunday Couch Potatoe said:

 

 Not sure where the 9ers homer goggles comment is coming from. 

Clearly you did not read the OP's comments in the beginning of this thread.

 

 

1 hour ago, Sunday Couch Potatoe said:

I’ve watched every second of every niner game this year 

So.. you're a homer with a biased opinion.  I'm glad you like Sherman.  :tup:

 

 

12 minutes ago, Sunday Couch Potatoe said:

Um... Reread that paragraph again. I never said disrespect by analysts. I said the people IVE talked to in my circle of football fans are saying that about them not the consensus of experts.

Actually, you didn't say that in your original post, so there's that.  

 


 

1 hour ago, Sunday Couch Potatoe said:

(when referring to Richard Sherman) There’s a reason QBs don’t throw his way often and when they do they have a 48 QBR.

You are correct.  The reason they don't throw his way is because on the other side of the field is the vaunted Ahkello Witherspoon.  Dude got benched twice in the past 3 weeks in favor of an undrafted free agent.  So yeah, put anyone out there in favor of Sherman and their stats are going to look better than they should as well.  

 

 

 

Look dude, I'm not going to fault you or any other fan for being optimistic for his/her team.  I mean it's not like going to the superbowl is a yearly thing, unless you're a fan of the Patriots. 

 

With that, this is the 3rd time I've said this in this thread now...   I like to root for the underdog and I will be rooting for the 49ers, and I also said I would not be disappointed to see the Chiefs win either.  Whether it be here, other forums, other social media outlets, fans of San Fran (in general) are already dubbing their team the SB champs.  Not saying it's not going to happen, but they are the underdogs.  If I did bet on sports, I would take the Chiefs to easily cover the spread.  

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