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michaelredd9

Super Bowl gambling thread

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This is the most evenly matched Super Bowl possible.  Either offense and either defense could do well.  The most sure thing is that the 49ers' run game will do well, but a run game can't win it alone.  Is anyone confident on any bets?  I'm thinking prop bets are the most prudent bets.

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1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

This is the most evenly matched Super Bowl possible.  Either offense and either defense could do well.  The most sure thing is that the 49ers' run game will do well, but a run game can't win it alone.  Is anyone confident on any bets?  I'm thinking prop bets are the most prudent bets.

I know I won't be betting.  I guess if I was forced I'd go Niners just because I think D usually wins between potent offenses and defenses.  O/U looks fairly priced at 53 so not sure I'd bet on that either.  What prop bets were you thinking?

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Opening odds:

Chiefs: -1.5

49ers: +1.5

Opening moneyline:

Chiefs: -120

49ers: +100

Opening over/under: 

52.5

I don't love any of them but with a gun to my head I'd probably take the under. 

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If I was betting this game, strictly from a gambling aspect, I'd take the niners.  I just believe they have the better overall team. 

 

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6 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

The most sure thing is that the 49ers' run game will do well

 

Is it a sure thing though ?? Ask Derrick Henry ...

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1 hour ago, League_Champion said:

Opening odds:

Chiefs: -1.5

49ers: +1.5

Opening moneyline:

Chiefs: -120

49ers: +100

Opening over/under: 

52.5

I don't love any of them but with a gun to my head I'd probably take the under. 

 

oh no... take the over on this.  It's going to be a 70+ point game.  Just a strong hunch

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staying away from the point spread and the money line.  I like the Over.  I will probably load up on player prop bets.  Struck gold with them in the Championship games.

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Dcat said:

staying away from the point spread and the money line.  I like the Over.  I will probably load up on player prop bets.  Struck gold with them in the Championship games.

 

 

 

 

I bet that Andy Reid kicks an onside kick to start the game, book it! Haha 

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Was browsing the prop bets, and this one is interesting.  Does this mean you can bet on whether or not the performer will be wearing pants? :unsure:

 

4AB0799D-2CA8-465F-97CD-1BBAE1C89FDF.jpeg

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If I had more on it I would bet the 49ers to hedge my bet but I'm just gonna stick with my 6 to 1 odds and put money into squares

 

 

Ticket#:38291842
Jan 21 05:00 AM
INTERNET / -1 Dec 27 05:30 AM
PROP
WINNER OF 2019-2020 SUPER BOWL?
[2016] KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +600

20.00 / 120.00
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5 hours ago, Gourdeau said:

 

Is it a sure thing though ?? Ask Derrick Henry ...

 

Completely different runner(s), and different scheme to boot.  

 

Just because KC was able to keep Henry in check does not mean they will be able to handle SF's ground game.

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I like Tyreek Hill at 8-1 to score first TD.

 

First TD is always one of my favorite bets... although I'm not betting online anymore haha.  

 

But if I were... that's the one I'd lay.

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One of my favorite props for the sb is will the longest score be a FG or a TD. I like to take TD. One bomb or pick 6 , or special teams long td and its over

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4 minutes ago, darin3 said:

 

Completely different runner(s), and different scheme to boot.  

 

Just because KC was able to keep Henry in check does not mean they will be able to handle SF's ground game.

 

I don't disagree with you, i'm just playing devils advocate. Spagnola contained a dynamite run game last week, he designed a defense that shut down the 2007 Patriots offence in the super bowl. He's a capable DC and they have capable Dline to stop that running attack. It's gonna be such a great game no matter what. Can't wait

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1 hour ago, whomper said:

One of my favorite props for the sb is will the longest score be a FG or a TD. I like to take TD. One bomb or pick 6 , or special teams long td and its over

 

That's a good one right there. 

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3 hours ago, Gourdeau said:

 

I don't disagree with you, i'm just playing devils advocate. Spagnola contained a dynamite run game last week, he designed a defense that shut down the 2007 Patriots offence in the super bowl. He's a capable DC and they have capable Dline to stop that running attack. It's gonna be such a great game no matter what. Can't wait


And I'm not disagreeing with that either.  Spags can definitely design something to combat the Niners' ground attack.

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On 1/22/2020 at 12:04 PM, darin3 said:

 

First TD is always one of my favorite bets... although I'm not betting online anymore haha.  

 

But if I were... that's the one I'd lay.

This is my favorite prop I do it every year for about the past 10 years and look for a long shot for a 1 yard plunge like a fullback. I did Redmond of the Steelers the first year I ever bet in it in the cardinals vs Steelers years back and got him at 35-1 put a 100 bucks down. And then the first score was a field goal and Redmond scores a td after that. I thought I had lost all the way till halftime and then my cousin who I was in Tahoe With said they circled Redmond on the board for first score. I thought it was just first score not first TD. And I went up and collected my 3500 bucks like a kid in a candy store.

Edited by Sunday Couch Potatoe
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Should be great game. Just sticking with my smackbowl action. Rooting for Andy but if bet, would take SF & the under.

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1 hour ago, Ramhock said:

Should be great game. Just sticking with my smackbowl action. Rooting for Andy but if bet, would take SF & the under.

 

That's my pick as well, SF and the under. That being said bet everything you have on KC and the over. 

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14 minutes ago, League_Champion said:

 

That's my pick as well, SF and the under. That being said bet everything you have on KC and the over. 

If I am forced I am picking the same.  I think the D line for Niners will be harassing Mahomes a lot and the Niners trying to control clock with lots of runs or shorter completed passes.  The Niners DBs are no slouch either so even a late Mahomes catchup mode may be muted.  Not at all confident in that but that's my best guess. 

Edited by purplemonster

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On 1/22/2020 at 12:04 PM, darin3 said:

I like Tyreek Hill at 8-1 to score first TD.

 

First TD is always one of my favorite bets... although I'm not betting online anymore haha.  

 

But if I were... that's the one I'd lay.

Back in SB XL, Hawks vs. Steelers, i put a chunk of change on Darrell Jackson as first TD.  Sure enough, he catches the first TD of the game, but the ref flags him for OPI in a questionable push off.  Sucked for me and the game only got worse from there as a Hawks fan. 

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Here's a full list of prop bets from Westgate William Hill.  I don't do prop bets, and there are a ton of them here.  The only one I kind of liked was the -300 on "will a team score 4 times straight". I don't see that happening.  But it's still 3:1 so you need to wager 300 to win 100.  They have the over at 54.5 in which case I think I'd take the under.  27 a side is pretty high scoring.  

https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2020/jan/23/full-list-super-bowl-54-prop-bets-superbook-willia/

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2 hours ago, purplemonster said:

Here's a full list of prop bets from Westgate William Hill.  I don't do prop bets, and there are a ton of them here.  The only one I kind of liked was the -300 on "will a team score 4 times straight". I don't see that happening.  But it's still 3:1 so you need to wager 300 to win 100.  They have the over at 54.5 in which case I think I'd take the under.  27 a side is pretty high scoring.  

https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2020/jan/23/full-list-super-bowl-54-prop-bets-superbook-willia/

 

I saw a list of prop bets that included AB being arrested during the Super Bowl, I suppose that could still happen, but wonder if it was done based on the recent problems and there being an arrest warrant for him.

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I like the under on the prop bet of Kittle getting 6.5 receptions.  I don't think the 49ers are going to get cute and go away from the run game.  They have run the ball dominantly all season.  Teams know it's coming and still can't stop it.  Why change things up when it has worked brilliantly all year?  And I don't think that their defense will allow them to fall far enough behind that they have to abandon the run. 

 

Kittle had more than 6.5 receptions 4 times out of 16 weeks this year including the playoffs (he missed 2 games).  It should be noted that he had exactly 6 receptions on 6 occasions so he could have easily had 7 receptions a few more times.  The Chiefs gave up more than 6.5 receptions to a tight end 1 time this year when they gave up 7 receptions to Darren Waller in week 13.  They did give up 6 receptions on 3 occasions. 

 

So this year's history would indicate that Kittle isn't likely to get 7 receptions.  And with how the 49ers have been gameplanning in the playoffs, it is highly unlikely that they pass enough for Kittle to have a big day unless they fall behind by a large margin which is not likely.  I put his odds of getting more than 6.5 receptions at 23.7%.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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Here are some prop bets you didn't know you wanted.  Bubba Watson final round longest drive vs Mahomes passing yards (Bubba is favored) and George Kittle receiving yards vs Xander Schauffele final round score 

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/super-bowl-exotic-betting-prop-odds

 

Actually though one I do like is whether Joe Buck or Aikman say the word "Patriots".  Hard to envision them not saying it at some point.  -250 on that one. 

Edited by purplemonster

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