Week 13 mismatches

[Brentastic]

The NFL game is all about individual matchups. They're what send coaches to the film room for hours on end, looking for any advantage. Sometimes the mismatches are obvious; other times, not so much. Our scouts have identified the one matchup in each of this week's games in which one team has a clear edge.

 

Minnesota at Chicago

Chicago WR Bobby Wade vs. Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield

 

Wade possesses good quickness and runs sharp routes for a second-year player, but his lack of strength and speed will cost him in this matchup. While he is undersized Winfield plays with a mean streak and is extremely physical at the point of attack. He will jam Wade at the line and he will muscle Wade out of his routes, which will disrupt Wade's timing with Hutchinson.

 

Wade won't have much success getting open in the vertical passing game either. He doesn't have the speed to get behind Winfield or the height advantage to consistently win jump balls downfield. It doesn't help Wade any that Winfield is a technician who will wrap him up immediately after the catch. Winfield's ability to cover Wade without any safety help over the top will allow Cottrell to commit a safety to run support and/or roll the coverage to WR David Terrell's side of the field.

 

 

New England at Cleveland

New England WR Deion Branch vs. Cleveland CB Daylon McCutcheon

 

Branch is the Patriots biggest threat to make a huge play in the passing game. He does an excellent job of creating separation and he will make the tough catch on third down. While he can work on the perimeter, he can also work out of the slot with equal success.

McCutcheon will try to get physical with Branch. While he is a good tackler, he does not have elite speed and he will struggle to keep up with Branch. With so many weapons in the passing game, it will be tough for the Browns to give McCutcheon help in this matchup.

 

 

Arizona at Detroit

Arizona LOG Reggie Wells vs. Detroit RDT Shaun Rogers

 

Wells has the lower body strength and size to control the point of attack when he gets into position working against Rogers, but Rogers will rarely allow that to happen. Rogers has the first-step quickness to shoot gaps and should have success beating Wells, who lacks ideal initial quickness, right off the snap.

 

Once in the backfield Rogers has the lateral mobility to make plays in space. The Cardinals will also have to find ways to give Wells some help when QB John Navarre drops back to pass. Besides using his burst to shoot gaps, Rogers has the change-of-direction skills to redirect inside after starting upfield and shows a wide variety of pass rush moves. Wells' inability to get into consistent position working against the quicker and more athletic Rogers will ultimately present problems for the Cardinals both in pass protection and in the running game.

 

 

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Tennessee LOT Jason Mathews vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney

 

Freeney's biggest weakness is his inability to hold his ground at the point of attack when teams run directly at him. The problem is Mathews won't be able to take advantage, as he lacks the upper body strength to lock onto Freeney's frame and the lower body strength to drive him off the ball.

 

Freeney also has the athletic ability to make the play in space once he's disengaged the block. Mathews, who has lost a step with age won't have much success keeping Freeney out of the backfield when Tennessee drops back to pass either. Freeney is fast enough to run around Mathews when he tries to take away the inside, and he has the explosive first step to shoot the gap when Mathews tries to take away the outside.

 

 

San Francisco at St. Louis

St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. San Francisco RCB Shawntae Spencer

 

Holt hasn't been 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury, but he played on Monday night and should be even closer to full strength after another six days to recover. The 49ers will try to utilize Spencer's size and long arms by having him press Holt at the line of scrimmage. While Spencer could impede several of Holt's releases, the veteran receiver will still find ways to get off the line and into his routes.

 

Once Holt has released, Spencer lacks the fluidity, speed and savvy to keep up with him one-on-one. If QB Marc Bulger gets the time he needs to set up in the pocket and step into his throws, Holt should become his favorite target in this game. And if the 49ers are forced to overcompensate by rolling coverage to Holt's side, the matchup of Isaac Bruce vs. former safety turned cornerback Dwaine Carpenter on the opposite side is just as enticing.

 

 

Buffalo at Miami

Buffalo RB Willis McGahee vs. Miami WLB Morlon Greenwood

 

Greenwood has good quickness and athletic ability but his lack of recognition skills and power gives McGahee the edge in this matchup. While Greenwood is a reliable open field tackler, he can be overaggressive and will get caught out of position at times. McGahee has the vision to recognize when Greenwood overruns the play and the lateral mobility to exploit the cutback lanes.

 

In addition, he is a surprisingly patient runner that allows his blocks to develop and Greenwood struggles to disengage once he's been reached by a blocker. Greenwood won't have much success staying with McGahee in coverage either. McGahee has the burst and change of direction skills to consistently separate from Greenwood.

 

 

Carolina at New Orleans

New Orleans ROT Victor Riley vs. Carolina LDE Julius Peppers

 

Peppers has come on strong in the last month registering seven sacks during the last four games. He is one of the most explosive edge rushers in the entire league and should be looking forward to his matchup with the inconsistent Riley.

 

Riley, who is a much better run blocker than pass protector, lacks ideal change of direction skills and he will have problems mirroring Peppers. He also doesn't show great footwork, he loses his balance too easily and he is extremely vulnerable to double moves. This will leave Riley vulnerable when Peppers starts outside and then uses his quickness to redirect back inside. As for pure athleticism, Peppers holds a clear edge and should have little trouble turning the corner working against Riley.

 

 

Houston at NY Jets

Houston ROT Todd Wade vs. NY Jets LDE Shaun Ellis

 

Wade is a blue-collar player who works hard to sustain his blocks and is physical at the point of attack, but he lacks the technique and natural ability to hold his own working against Ellis. While Wade weighs over 30 pounds more than Ellis, he doesn't play with a wide base or great leverage. Ellis, who has experience playing defensive tackle, should be able to get under Wade's pads and he has the strength to hold his ground once in position. He can then use his hands to shed the block quickly.

 

Wade will also need almost constant help when Houston drops back to pass. Ellis will set Wade up with an upfield move before redirecting inside, and Wade lacks the lateral mobility to counter. In addition, Wade has some problems holding his ground working against bull rushers. Ellis is powerful enough to drive him back into the pocket.

 

 

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Atlanta LOT Kevin Shaffer vs. Tampa Bay RDE Simeon Rice

 

Shaffer has the bulk and power to engulf the undersized Rice at the point of attack when Atlanta runs behind him, but he will struggle in every other aspect of this matchup. Rice is extremely active and should be able to disengage from Shaffer's blocks fairly quickly when the Falcons run away from him.

 

Rice also has the closing speed to make plays in pursuit and takes excellent angles to the ball. Atlanta will have to give Shaffer plenty of help when QB Michael Vick drops back to pass. Although Shaffer has long arms that he uses to ride edge rushers past the pocket, Rice won't give him the opportunity. Rice has the explosive ability to redirect inside while Shaffer simply doesn't have the footwork or balance to mirror him in protection.

 

 

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Baltimore LOG Edwin Mulitalo vs. Cincinnati RDT Langston Moore

 

Moore has the potential to develop into an effective situational run stuffer but Williams' injury has forced him to play an every-down role which will cost him in this matchup. Mulitalo is a powerful run blocker who does an excellent job of sustaining his blocks and he weighs some 35 pounds more than Moore.

 

Although Moore plays with a wide base and he is physical at the point of attack, he lacks ideal stamina and plays high when he gets tired. Look for Mulitalo to start driving him off the ball as the game wears on as a result. Moore won't have much success rushing the passer either. Mulitalo rarely gives ground to bull rushers and Moore lacks the arsenal of pass rush moves to exploit Mulitalo's lack of lateral mobility.

 

 

Denver at San Diego

San Diego TE Antonio Gates vs. Denver SS John Lynch

 

Gates had four receptions in the first meeting versus Denver and has continued to make significant strides since then. On the season, the second-year tight end has a league-high 69 receptions for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns. From a size and toughness standpoint, Lynch should be able to hold his ground in this matchup. Lynch isn't nearly as big as Gates, but he understands leverage and he's a powerful player for his size.

 

The problem that Gates will present, however, is down the seams in the passing game. Lynch frequently is cheated up near the line of scrimmage as a fourth-linebacker type versus the run and his responsibility in coverage often will be to lock up on the opposing tight end one-on-one. Because Gates is so much faster and has the potential to run by Lynch, the Broncos may need to adjust their scheme and be less aggressive with Lynch in run support. That obviously will hurt their chances of containing RB LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

 

Kansas City at Oakland

Kansas City WR Eddie Kennison vs. Oakland CB Charles Woodson

 

Kennison has excellent speed and generally does a good job of opening up the underneath routes for Johnny Morton by stretching opposing defenses vertically. The problem is Woodson is fast enough to run with Kennison downfield and has the size to knock away any jump balls.

 

Oakland will frequently leave Woodson on an island and that means Morton should have a harder time getting open. Kennison, who is an inconsistent short-to-intermediate route-runner, won't have much success getting open underneath either. Woodson has the strength to muscle him out of the routes and the quick feet to mirror his every move. He is also a powerful open field tackler capable of limiting Kennison's production after the catch.

 

 

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Philadelphia TE L.J. Smith vs. Green Bay SS Mark Roman

 

Roman has provided the Packers with surer tackling and better man-to-man coverage skills than the team had at the position a season ago, but his lack of size can frequently create problems. Roman has the cover skills to match up against a lot of slot receivers in the NFL, but the four inches and 58 pounds that he gives up against Smith in this matchup could pose a problem.

 

Smith won't be able to run past Roman but he will still be a weapon down the seams when he gets matched up one-on-one against the Packers' strong safety because he can use his frame to shield Roman and strength to outmuscle him. With the Packers needing to use FS Darren Woodson on double-coverage versus WR Terrell Owens, Smith could have an extremely productive afternoon as a receiver down the middle.

 

 

NY Giants at Washington

Washington LOG Derrick Dockery vs. N.Y. Giants RDT Fred Robbins

 

Robbins has 4.5 sacks on the season, two of which came against Dockery and the Redskins in their first meeting. Patrick Ramsey took over for Mark Brunell in that game. Ramsey was consistently pressured and wound up throwing three interceptions. In just four games played, the immobile Ramsey has been sacked 12 times. If Robbins can use his superior quickness and athletic ability to beat Dockery one-on-one and keep the pressure coming up the middle, Ramsey will undoubtedly make more key mistakes that should lead to takeaways for the Giants.

 

 

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward vs. Jacksonville CB Dewayne Washington

 

Ward is the blue-collar receiver who does all of the "dirty work" in the Steelers' offense. He will make the tough catches in traffic and helps out his rookie quarterback by rarely making a mistake. Washington is a savvy veteran who lacks great speed and cover skills, but he doesn't make many mistakes either and closes on the ball well. Luckily for Washington, Ward won't try to take him deep a lot, so most of their battles will be on intermediate routes. Washington would like to play some press coverage but Ward is physical enough to get off the jam. Expect Ward to get the better of this matchup.

 

 

 

 

Dallas at Seattle

Seattle FB Mack Strong vs. Dallas MLB Dat Nguyen

 

It might not look like a mismatch on paper but Strong's size, strength and lead-blocking ability should frustrate Nguyen to no end. Nguyen is an undersized middle linebacker who uses his instincts and athletic ability to chase down the run from sideline-to-sideline, but he struggles against teams that can get blockers out on him at the second level. He doesn't have the bulk or lower body strength to consistently take on and disengage from isolation blockers, which leads to him frequently coming off of blocks too late. Because of this, look for the Seahawks to use a lot of two-back sets with Strong leading the way for RB Shaun Alexander on Monday night.

[Jumpin Johnies]

Thanks for the posting. It's certainly helpful.

[DexterDew]

great read! Thanks for the post

[Down Goes Frazia]

THAT is a quality post.

[phenom]

THAT is a quality post.

 

591955[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

Beware of the post padder!

 

 

Good info............

[Brentastic]

Thanks and bump for Sunday crew! Peace and good luck today.

[pseudolefty]

Good info. One note, however, today's San Diego Union Tribune suggests that Denver may put Bailey on Gates. Bailey's definitely a tougher matchup for Gates than Lynch.

[WaterMan]

Anybody from New Orleans against Peppers is a mismatch.

[Front Row]

Thanks for the insights.

Kennison to the pine.