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Free Fantasy Advice - Week 16 - Playoff Edition


Hugh 0ne
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Hey Hugh, who would you start this week at qb.  My choices are Greise vs. Carolina or Delhomme vs. Tampa.  Our scoring is 6 points for every passing or rushing td, 1/2 point for every completion and 1 point for every 25 yards passing.  Thanks for the help.

 

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Tampa pass D: #1 in the league, 161 YPG, 17 TD's.

Carolina pass D: 17th in the league, 213 YPG, 14 TD's.

 

Granted, Carolina has been hot, on both sides of the ball, but I'd still play the matchup and go with Griese.

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The scientist is BACK! Happy Holidays! I'll make it short and to the point...I'm in the Superbowl...I need help with the flex position...Do I start...Rueben Droughns vs. Tenn or Antonio Bryant vs. Miami...I am leaning towards Droughns...What do you think?

Unfortunately I don't have any other options.

 

Thanks!

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Ok Hugh, got 2 dilemmas this week.

 

Scoring: Standard Performance - 1 point per 25 Pass, 1 point per 10 Yards Rush/Rec, 6 points per TD

 

1. I am stuck on picking my QB for this week. I have Hasselbeck (vs AZ) and Griese (vs CAR) on my roster and as of right now, I was planning on starting Griese. I just hope he can make up for his performance last week. I am also looking at picking up Volek (vs Den) from the free agent pool. I am weary of Hasselbeck, cause he might not play the whole game or there could be a heavy dose of Alexander this week. So, would you stay with Griese or pick up Volek?

 

2. I am having a little trouble picking my second RB. Right now I am starting Ahman Green (vs MIN) as my first and am debating between Warrick Dunn (vs NO) and Fred Taylor (vs HOU) as my second. I am thinking Fred Taylor right now, but he has had a lot of trouble getting into the endzone lately. I think last week was his second of the year and he had numerous chances. Dunn looked pretty solid last week. I just don't know if Duckett is expected back. So, do I keep Talyor in?

 

Thanks in advance for the help and have a great holiday!

Edited by Lost
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Hi Hugh:

 

Standard scoring, plus 0.5 points for each reception. My lineup's in my sig -- I've pretty much decided to start the players who are off the bench already. But do sound off if you have any violent objections.

 

As to the rest of the positions (RB, flex, and DEF), who do you think I should start? For the RB+flex positions I'm thinking Clayton, Julius, or Morris. Can't figure out one over the other, though. And for DEF I'm thinking it's either MIA or DET (vs CHI). Leaning towards MIA. Shutouts are great and all, but INTs and sacks are nice too, no? Case in point -- I played SD last week. They got their shutout, but not a whole lot of sacks and INTs, so only decent pointage. Not really considering Droughns because I think it's too risky a play, and I feel Roy Williams is going back to no-TD mediocrity this week. Let me know what you think. Thanks!

Edited by abishagenaden
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Pick 2 WR of the 3

 

Walker @ Vikings - Like that matchup in the dome.

Williams vs Bears - Ditto

Clayton vs Panthers

 

I have been starting Walker and Clayton.

Now, with Roy's big game, and the fact that they are home against the Bears has me leaning towards Walker and Williams.

 

At RB, I have LT starting, need to pick 1 more.

Right now, I am going with Bell.

Bell @ Tenn

Shaud Williams @ 49ers. I picked up Williams and dropped Duckett in case something happened to Bell late in the week.

 

Chis Brown and Onterrio Smith are not options, obviously.

Scoring and other info below....

 

Thx Hugh

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Hugh:

 

I have two RB studs that unfortunately have less-than-desireable matchups this week with the two toughest RB defenses:

 

Jamal Lewis @ Pittsburg

Julius Jones vs. Washington

 

I have as a backups:

 

Warrick Dunn at New Orleans (Dunn has a nice matchup here at New Orleans, so I am tempted to keep him active. But who should I swap out - Jones or Lewis?)

 

Reuben Droughns @ Tennessee (T. Bell got more carries than Droughns against the Chiefs and now appears to be the No. 1 Fantasy back in Denver, so it would be foolish to start him even though he has a more favorable matchup if he plays.)

 

One thought about Jamal Lewis is that Tiki Barber had a decent game last week against the Steelers, so Lewis could do better than expected.

 

Any thoughts on who to start here? Your help is much appreciated.

 

1 pt /20 yds running or receiving, 6 pts/TD

Edited by dbwebhead
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Hi Hugh,

 

I'm in the finals and need to decide on a defense. 

 

Choices are:

 

ATL v. NO or

CIN v. NYG?

 

10 Points for a shutout. No other score based points (so once the offense scores, it doesn't matter how many points they put up.) Then pretty standard defensive scoring, DTD's (worth more points than offensive td's), sacks, fbr, int etc.

 

I've got the rest of my lineup just about set (see below if you're interested), but the defense could make a difference.  What do you think?

 

Thanks and Happy Holidays.

 

Volek

DDavis

Pittman

R.Moss

Kennison

B.Williams or K.Dilger

J.Feely

??????

 

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Defenses are really a crap shoot. I normally play the matchups. I think I'd play Cincy and hope that Manning makes some mistakes. I could see one of those Deltha O'Neal TD's this week.

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Tampa pass D: #1 in the league, 161 YPG, 17 TD's.

Carolina pass D: 17th in the league, 213 YPG, 14 TD's.

 

Granted, Carolina has been hot, on both sides of the ball, but I'd still play the matchup and go with Griese.

 

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Thanks Hugh, you da man!

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okay - two - leftwich, bledsoe or brooks?? and will wheatley play??  thanks

 

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Leftwich against Houston is a great option this week, and your best option.

 

I don't know about Wheatley, but I would expect Oakland to thrash the KC secondary with the pass, not the run. You must have better options.

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Hi Hugh, I have a couple of dilemmas going into the SB.

 

 

at WR two of these Mason, Driver, Moulds kennison. (kennison seems to have been on fire lately.

 

RB, I'm feeling Mcallister and Bettis. should I even be conmsidering M Faulk or is that completly out of the question?

 

my opponent is playing Manning, dillon, C martin, Muhammed, A johnsom, graham, vinatieri and redskins.

 

 

thanks in advance

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Standard 12 team performance league (except WRs get 1 point per reception} and my opponent has ALL the matchups this week (Collins @ KC, LJohnson vs OAK, Kennison vs OAK, CJohnson vs NYG, Evans @ SF) so I need to maximize my lineup this week to have a shot for the title.

 

Okay after last week's debacle I have to start Brett Favre @ MIN over Griese vs CAR, right. Never mind that Favre often struggles in domes and very often struggles in the one at Minnesota.

 

It seems like I can't make a mistake with my running backs this week. McGahee is supposed to sit and apparently OSmith has lost his job (glad I resisted the temptation to start him last week). So I'm "stuck" with Edgerrin James vs SD and Julius Jones vs WAS. Neither are great matchups ... but at least both are home games.

 

Now to the tough part. I really missed the boat on my WRs last week, a by product of having so many good ones to choose from :D Anyway here's what I got and their Huddle projections in blue

 

Wide Receivers: Jimmy Smith has scored three times in the last two weeks with about 85 yards in both games. He had 117 yards on nine catches in the first meeting against the Texans. Troy Edwards brief fling with significance started and ended with the Pittsburgh game - he only had 10 yards last week and only 43 yards in the first meeting with Houston. The rookie Reggie Williams was the ninth pick in the draft, but he looks like a bust so far. Other than his one score and 62 yards against the Bears, Williams has never had more than 42 yards in a game even though he gets up to nine passes per week. 120 yards, 2 TDs

 

Wide Receivers: Drew Bennett has caught eight touchdowns in the last three weeks - something done only by Jerry Rice in NFL history. Bennett has 517 yards in the last three games and since opponents still think that Derrick Mason is the biggest worry, Bennett is killing the secondary. He's had 17 passes in each of the last two games and had 25 catches total for 393 yards. His explosion is relatively without precedent since he only had nine catches for 118 yards and no scores in the two games previous to this three week bonanza. Derrick Mason hasn't produced the eye-popping numbers of Bennett, but he's still been solid with 121 yards and a score last week. That would seem great if he was not lining up across from Super-Bennett. 90 yards, 2 TDs

 

Wide Receivers: Michael Clayton's hot streak earlier this year is still sputtering with only four catches for 53 yards last week and only 15 yards three weeks ago. The problem is less about Clayton, he's just not getting nearly the same amount of passes now that Joey Galloway has been a bigger factor during the last three weeks. Galloway has scored four times in those last three games and accounted for 19 passes and 11 completions by Griese that used to head to Clayton. Clayton had eight catches for 77 yards the last time against the Panthers while Joey Galloway only managed 34 yards on three catches in the final game before he began to reassume his productive ways this season. 80 yards, 1 TD

 

Wide Receivers: Anquan Boldin still has not scored this season and after recording a 109 yard effort against the 49ers in week 14, he fell back to only 48 yards on four catches last Sunday. Larry Fitzgerald only had four catches for 37 yards against the Rams but he scored two touchdowns for his first career multi-score game. Fitzgerald had six touchdowns on the season but last week was the first time he had scored in the last month. Back in week seven against the Seahawks, Boldin was still out and Fitzgerald turned in one of his best games when he had 73 yards and one touchdown. Though he has scored only once this year, Bryant Johnson has been quietly effective for the last couple of games with 77 and 69 yards. With McCown showing more poise, Johnson has been able to be productive in three receiver sets. 70 yards, no TDs

 

Wide Receivers: The Bills handed Chad Johnson his worst career effort - only ten yards on two catches. Prior to last week's effort in the howling winds, Johnson had scored in the four previous games and not fallen below 80 yards per game. Even T.J. Houshmandzadeh was held in check last week, gaining only 43 yards after two straight weeks of 140+ yard performances. 80 yards, 1 TD

 

Wide Receivers: Finally, Antwaan Randle El had a big game as an NFL wideout. He gained 149 yards on five receptions last week with one touchdown against the Giants while Hines Ward gained 134 yards on nine catches for his second best effort of the year and only his second time over 100 yards in a game this season. Plaxico Burress was held out last week for the fifth straight game. Back in week two, Ward did have his best game of the year when he totaled 151 yards and one score on six receptions against the Ravens. It was the final game of Tommy Maddox and until last week, the last time that Ward had a disproportionately higher production than any other wideout. Plaxico Burress only had two catches for 30 yards in that game. 70 yards, 1 TD

 

Jimmy Smith vs HOU ~ 120 yards, 2 TDs

Derrick Mason vs DEN ~ 90 yards, 2 TDs

Micheal Clayton vs CAR ~ 80 yards, 1 TD

TJ Houshmandzadeh vs NYG ~ 80 yards, 1 TD

Anquan Boldin @ SEA ~ 70 yards, 0 TD

Hines Ward vs BAL ~ 70 yards, 1 TD

 

Okay even without the help of the projections the no brainers are Jimmy Smith and Derrick Mason (that debacle last week with his "injury" almost killed me). That leaves me choosing 1 more.

 

Clayton's numbers have been depressed since Galloway returned and I'm nervous about starting him.

 

Boldin has what looks like a nice matchup ... but I thought the same last week and he let me down ... AND he has NO TDs on the year.

 

Ward has been hit or miss since week 10 and has a tough Baltimore defense. He did okay against BAL earlier in the year, but that was with Maddox at the helm. He is also coming off a nice week, but that was against the Giants.

 

I am intrigued by TJ's matchup. He didn't have a great week last week ... but could rebound this week. 3 out of the last 4 weeks TJ was a monster. Am I over thinking if I bench Clayton, Boldin and Ward so I can start TJ?

 

Okay ... last one. I can bench Edge or Julius and go with a 4th WR. Is there value in exploring that option?

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Oh great master...

 

I have these choices for WR & TE

 

Ward @ Baltimore

J. Smith @ Houston (Given)

Santana vs. NE

Rice vs AZ

Gariel @ KC

 

TE:

 

Shockey @ CIN

McMichael vs CLE

 

Haven't let me down yet...let's give it one more shot! Thanks and Happy Holidays!

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Oh Great one...

 

who do you think I should start as my Def: Jets vs Pats, Mia vs Cle or Bucs vs Car.  Also, as far as my flex, do I go with T. Bell or D-Jax?

 

Scoring is standard btw...

 

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Miami. I said it earlier, Cleveland has scored 7 points total in the last 2 weeks.

 

I'm not a fan of the Shanahan RBBC clusterf*ck, not to mention Bell is banged up and in Shannie's doghouse. Denver will be able to run on Tennessee, but it's a risk as to who will get the carries. DJax is the smarter, safer play.

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Defenses are really a crap shoot. I normally play the matchups. I think I'd play Cincy and hope that Manning makes some mistakes. I could see one of those Deltha O'Neal TD's this week.

 

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Thanks Hugh. If you'll indulge me with a second bite at the apple: Having read your WR comments on this thread, I'm curious how you feel about E.Kennison as my 2nd WR with R. Moss. Would you recommend Burleson or Moulds instead?

 

Kennison has been very hot, and Moulds has not so I think I'd start K over M....but what about Burleson and R.Moss against GB?

 

6 pts. for TD, 1 pt. per 10 yds receiving. Moss/Burleson v. GB; Moulds v. SF; Kennison v. OAK.

 

Thanks again.

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Defense question

 

I have been using Pittsburgh (hosting Baltimore this week) all year

 

I recently picked up Indianapolis (hosting San Diego this week)

 

And Miami (hosting cleveland) is available that I could pick up. the scoring is below, my question is who to start (1 team) this week in first round of playoffs

 

Sack (1)

Interception (2)

Fumble Recovery (2)

Touchdown (6)

Safety (2)

Block Kick (2)

Return Yards (20 yards per point)

Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns (6)

Points Allowed 0 points (10)

Points Allowed 1-6 points (7)

Points Allowed 7-13 points (4)

Points Allowed 14-20 points (1)

Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)

Points Allowed 28-34 points (-1)

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Hey Hugh, Super Bowl time! I have a question at RB, I made the wrong choice last week in starting Droughns and benching Lewis but was lucky to catch a break and make it through anyway. Now I am questioning again. Points are 1 per 10 yds and 6 for TD

 

I have:

Lewis vs. Steelers (very tough matchup)

J. Jones vs. Washington (another tough matchup)

Droughns vs. Tennessee (doesn't look like he will be getting the carries)

L. Suggs vs. Miami

 

I have pretty much decided I am benching Droughns, based off of the last two weeks. Now I have Suggs in the mix and Miami can be run on.

 

I usually stick with the start your studs theory but those matchups against the No. 1 and 2 defenses concerns me. Like you have said before it is always more difficult when it is your own team.

 

Thanks and have a Merry Xmas!

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I've started NE D every week this season (exluding bye week). They have provided me with a lot of points. Our D"s get points based on the amount of yardage given up.  Am I crazy for thinking about starting Miami D this week at home vs the Browns or should I stick with NE D @ Jets? I can't decided and I am in my Superbowl!

 

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In line with the ASYS theory, I don't think I'd bench NE for MIA. The Fins are a great option at defense this week, but NE has been solid all year, and the Jets aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut.

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Yes and no. Based on last week I assume you're asking the questions and then will do the exact opposite of what I recommend. :D

 

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Nope. I ask your advice, take it into account and make my own decision. You are a "sounding board" so to speak.

Edited by Grits and Shins
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I figured it would be a slow week, you mean to tell me that all you Oprahers made the playoffs? :D

 

:D

 

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The board's been extremely active today. A lot of newbies for Grits to abuse. B)

A lot of people off work or just not working. A little extra stress for the holidays.

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