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Who do I keep?


Klinger
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I am in a twelve team league where we keep up to three players each year. You start a QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, a TE, and a K for offense. The league's scoring values RB heavily. In my league, you have to fill every position including IDP before you can draft backups.

 

Before I tell you my situation, I should note that through some trades I aquired the first three picks when picking backups begins. This means then that I can get first grabs at all the high potential picks that weren't worthy of starting spots.

 

I have Peyton, who is my obvious first round keeper. What I do with my other keepers is more confusing for me. I have Rudi Johnson and Julius Jones who I figure I could either keep or dump. I like Rudi but I don't trust Palmer as a leader. I like Julius too, and with Witten, Keyshawn, and Glenn, there may be some targets to throw to is Bledsoe can stay up. I am not 100% sure that either would be worthy of a second round pick. Though, they are definitely worthy by the third round.

 

I am thinking about dropping one or both of them and picking up some high quality WR. Then with my first rounds of open picks, I can get some high potential RBs like JJ Arrington, Cadillac, and maybe someone like Steven Jackson if the fantasy gods are generous.

 

I sort of switch my opinions every day. I am a little hesitant to keep them RBs because I have been screwed in the past. I have kept Ricky Williams and William Green two years ago and had to drop both of them for last year when I kept Barlow and Rudi. I am scared that my high potential back will be a bust... AGAIN.

 

What I could always do is keep both of them and STILL draft some high potential backs and some high potential WR.

 

Any thoughts?

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Given that "the league's scoring values RB heavily", I think you almost have to keep Rudi & JJ ... chances are, other owners will be retaining the "studly" RBs that they already have, perhaps lowering your chances of getting replacement backs of similar value.

 

Likewise, with all 12 teams potentially keeping 3 players, what "high quality WR" do you really expect will be available to you ... Jerry Porter? D. Branch? I'd expect that R. Moss, Marvin, TO, and even guys like H. Ward & P. Burress would/could be kept ... again lowering the chances that you get replacements for Rudi / JJ that will end up being similar in overall value.

 

You'll still be in fine position to get "the best of the rest" in the draft after all keepers are declared, since you already have those high picks in your back pocket.

 

Overall, I'd rather have Rudi & JJ in hand rather than gambling on getting a star WR or iffy RB on draft day. Sometimes "conventional wisdom" actually does make sense.

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Thanks for your advice. The high quality WRs I was hoping to get would be someone like a Joe Horn, Derrick Mason, Darrell Jackson type, but I guess they are not second rounders. I see your point, I just hate looking for WR all year on FA and Waivers.

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Thanks for your advice.  The high quality WRs I was hoping to get would be someone like a Joe Horn, Derrick Mason, Darrell Jackson type, but I guess they are not second rounders.  I see your point, I just hate looking for WR all year on FA and Waivers.

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Horn, Mason and DJax aren't even 3rd rounders imo. And, this year will be no different, RB's not in a RBBC will be at a premium. Granted, neither JJ or RJ are first round picks, so you're lacking the true stud RB, they will both be very solid RB options. Throw in the highest scoring player in fantasy football, and you'll be in good shape with the 2nd tier WR's you mentioned.

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Keeping Manning is a no-brainer.

 

You could do ALOT worse than have JJ and Rudi on your team. I'd keep them. Go for a WR with your first draft pick.

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Manning and Julius are DEFINITELY keep-worthy. Rudi is a bit riskier long-term, simply due to the Bangles inability to commit to him... but I'd still hold onto him as well. He is probably better than any other RB you might pick up.

 

If you have to scavenge for some position during the season, the easiest one to do that for is WR. There are always a few guys who have surprise break-thrus at wideout. Happens much less at RB. Keep the known.

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Manning and Julius are DEFINITELY keep-worthy.  Rudi is a bit riskier long-term, simply due to the Bangles inability to commit to him... but I'd still hold onto him as well.  He is probably better than any other RB you might pick up.

 

If you have to scavenge for some position during the season, the easiest one to do that for is WR.  There are always a few guys who have surprise break-thrus at wideout.  Happens much less at RB.  Keep the known.

 

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You know they signed Rudi to a long term contract, right? That sounds pretty much like a commitment to me. I am still not sure though. Glad I have a few months to think about it.

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  I am a little hesitant to keep them RBs because I have been screwed in the past.  I have kept Ricky Williams and William Green two years ago and had to drop both of them for last year when I kept Barlow and Rudi.  I am scared that my high potential back will be a bust... AGAIN.

 

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What happened with Ricky was an anomaly, Green was all potential and no meat and Barlow, well the 49ers were just awful, period. JJ and Rudi have shown that they can actually produce pretty consistently.

Given that "the league's scoring values RB heavily", I think you almost have to keep Rudi & JJ ... chances are, other owners will be retaining the "studly" RBs that they already have, perhaps lowering your chances of getting replacement backs of similar value.

 

 

Overall, I'd rather have Rudi & JJ in hand rather than gambling on getting a star WR or iffy RB on draft day. Sometimes "conventional wisdom" actually does make sense.

 

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Agree with this completely.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Thanks for your advice.  The high quality WRs I was hoping to get would be someone like a Joe Horn, Derrick Mason, Darrell Jackson type, but I guess they are not second rounders.  I see your point, I just hate looking for WR all year on FA and Waivers.

 

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I also agree with keeping all 3. I understand that you hate looking for WR all year long on FA but I would rather look for WR's on FA than a RB.

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if i read ur origional post correctly you have the first 3 picks after the keepers rounds. You should definately be able to get a quality wr and maybe even a decent back. i say you stay put keep all 3 and see whats there come draft day.

Edited by alchico
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Something I never mentioned because I never really considered it, is that I have Steven Jackson too. Would you consider keeping Jackson over Rudi or Julius? I could see Julius, Steven, and Peyton as being good this year and lethal in the future.

 

Thanks.

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Something I never mentioned because I never really considered it, is that I have Steven Jackson too.  Would you consider keeping Jackson over Rudi or Julius?  I could see Julius, Steven, and Peyton as being good this year and lethal in the future.

 

Thanks.

 

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I wouldn't consider keeping Jackson over those other two backs because you know that Marshall is going to steal a LOT of passing downs from the guy....

I know that Julius and Rudi are spelled sometimes in passing downs, but who knows how that faulk/jackson dynamic will work out ? :D

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