DMD

A few observations about drafts this year

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Just finished a 14 round draft (6 come later in August) and the same patterns hold true from my other two drafts/auctions.

 

QB's - Manning always in the first, CPep at end of 2nd and then just a constant smattering of one or two every round. They are falling FAR deeper than I have seen before. If you can live with the #6 QB or more, you can really wait a long time.

 

RB's - Just nothing short of an all out feeding frenzy. Like the first 2 rounds are ending up literally 20 to 22 RBs. The odd thing is that after LT, Alexander, James and Holmes - the order just goes almost completely unpredictable. They all go, but in recent memory I have not seen such a wide variety of how they are valued ever. And yet - everyone HAS TO HAVE ONE, MORE MORE MORE. If you select a QB or WR in your first 2 picks, you can just about write off having two legitimate starting RBs.

 

WRs - Moss' move to OAK has zero effect on his drafting. Owens contract squabble has zero effect on him. Harrison, Holt, Chad Johnson and Javon Walker always go next and then it jumbles like no one is sure who is going to do well. Andre Johnson, Roy Williams and Michael Clayton - all pretty high though.

 

TE's - Gonzo/Gates always gone in late 3rd to early 4th. Then it waits to the 6th or 7th and Witten goes. Then in 8th, maybe crumpler. Then by 9th or 10th, the dam breaks and they all spill out.

 

PK - who cares really. Akers and Vinatieri always 1-2 or 2-1.

 

DT - BAL, NE, BUF always in top three, then the rest are like people throwing darts.

 

 

Just finished my 14 rounds and here's where I ended up:

 

 

QB Marc Bulger

QB David Carr

(got Bulger with the 6.04 - think that was a steal but QBs really fall this year)

 

RB Domanick Davis

RB Julius Jones

RB Correll Buckhalter

RB Vernand Morency

 

Went Davis (1.09) and Jones (2.04). By my 3rd pick there was just nothing left. Wanted Cadillac Williams or JJ Arington for my #3 but both gone. (Figured I would take Staley next but that didn't happen) Buckhalter came in round 8. Man - RBs have never ever been hotter. Morency just a BU for Davis.

 

WR Torry Holt

WR Lave. Coles

WR Keyshawn Johnson

WR Charles Rogers

WR Brandon Lloyd

(reception points is why KJ is there. I like the crew and there will be one or two more in August to join the roster)

 

TE Tony Gonzalez

 

Had no intention of taking Gonzo but at the 4.04 he was still there (Gates went 3.03). It was either him or Kevin Barlow. You pay a big price for not getting 3 RBs by the end of 4th round but I could not pass Gonzo.

 

PK Mike Vanderjagt

 

We had to take a kicker in the first 14 rounds so I like Mike.

 

DT NE

 

3rd DT taken - BUF was first then BAL of course. Nothing wrong with NE

 

Pretty solid team overall with obvious holes at RB depth but to get that you had to really scrimp on all other positions like WR or QB.

 

I'm telling you - if you think you have a sleeper QB, you can get him VERY late this year. But RB-RB-RB is what most drafters start with and you have to respect that. Drafting earlier in the first round means you have a shot at it. Drafting at the 1.08 and beyond means likely NO WAY you get 3 decent RBs. But great WRs are really falling this year.

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Did I mention that RB's are hot this year?

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I'll assume it's a re-draft, and not the inagaural draft of a dynasty league. That being said, Davis and J. Jones is about as nice a 1-2 punch you can expect at RB imo. I think you're real weak at WR. After Holt, there are a lot of serious question marks and risks. QB, meh, Bulger should be solid, and maybe Carr will finally turn it up a notch. Not horrible. Besides. Cpep without Moss and McNabb without Owens (maybe) could drop them down and put them more on a level with guys like Bulger, so I like the pick. Gonzo over Barlow is a very good move imo. Solid D and solid PK. Nice work overall. WR's will hurt you though.

 

:D

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Did I mention that RB's are hot this year?

 

820134[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Post padder! :D

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Did anyone take Ricky Williams?

 

820153[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I would assume, that since this a re-draft, that he probably did not go, since I really don't think he has much value, as of right now, unless it's a dynasty or keeper league, then he might be worth a flyer. That being said, this was a 14 team league, so I guess it is possible. :D

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I knew it! Someone posted about taking QBs high this year as several had good Seasons...not me, man...

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Did anyone take Ricky Williams?

 

820153[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Went at the 9.06 pick. I would not have touched him.

 

It is a redraft league.

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Did anybod win a re-draft in 2004 without taking 2 RBs in their first 3 picks?

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Went at the 9.06 pick. I would not have touched him.

 

 

820186[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Wow.

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Interesting info.

 

There seemed to be some chatter after last year that QBs should be drafted earlier.

 

Maybe not.

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Interesting info.

 

There seemed to be some chatter after last year that QBs should be drafted earlier.

 

Maybe not.

 

820202[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Here is what happened today

 

1.05 Manning,Peyton

2.12 Culpepper,Daunte

3.12 McNabb,Donovan

5.07 Green,Trent

6.02 Favre,Brett

6.04 Bulger,Marc

6.09 Vick,Michael

8.03 Collins,Kerry

8.11 Hasselbeck,Matt

8.12 Plummer,Jake

9.01 Palmer,Carson

9.03 Brooks,Aaron

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Here is what happened today

 

1.05 Manning,Peyton

2.12 Culpepper,Daunte

3.12 McNabb,Donovan

5.07 Green,Trent

6.02 Favre,Brett

6.04 Bulger,Marc

6.09 Vick,Michael

8.03 Collins,Kerry

8.11 Hasselbeck,Matt

8.12 Plummer,Jake

9.01 Palmer,Carson

9.03 Brooks,Aaron

 

820204[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I would list Vick at the bottom of all the QBs on that list.

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This is the stuff that people pay for DMD! You give it away free?? That is why The Huddle is #1 every year!

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Interesting info.

 

There seemed to be some chatter after last year that QBs should be drafted earlier.

 

Maybe not.

 

820202[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Not sure what chatter you're referring to Furd, but, I kind of remember talk about Manning & Pepper going earlier. 1.5 on Manning I'm sure is earlier & I'm pretty sure Pepper would've gone earlier if Moss was still around.

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Did anybod win a re-draft in 2004 without taking 2 RBs in their first 3 picks?

 

820194[/snapback]

 

 

 

Believe it or not, 3 of the final 4 playoff teams in ours went QB,WR,RB(not necessarily in that order) with their 1st 3 picks. One of those 3 won the whole thing. It's a pretty competitive league but just one of those years.

 

 

DMD, although those trends do surprise me a bit because I figured everybody to be QB crazy this year, I tend to agree with them. Instead of everyone taking their time with RBs due to the depth, it appears everyone is going bonkers over them because RBs are all we've been hearing about. Speculation of course but thats the way it seems.

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DMD you and others will think this is crazy...but if you listed your WR's in order I think you got a good value pick in Brandon Lloyd.

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Well, I bit on the Manning frenzy, taking him at 1.3 in the IDP mock. With the Owens situation, and a Moss-less Cpep, I gambled that the point differential between Manning and the next QB could be sizable. Still managed to get Martin and Jordan, despite that, but it left me high and dry for a third RB. Not a happy place to be. Talk about RB's, I coundn't even manage to get a Blaylock handcuff to Martin, which would have been nice.... Blaylock went loooong before I thought he would. I was left with taking Faulk as a bye week RB.

 

DMD, did some of that Dallas homerism get to you with the JJ pick? After the A-Train and rookie pick up, I shied away from JJ some. Parcell's boss has been talking about keeping JJ's carries at, or under 20/game. I'm not sure how much to faith to put on that, but it was enough to red flag him some, for me anyways.

 

Seems like you got a good team there, best of luck!

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DMD, did some of that Dallas homerism get to you with the JJ pick? After the A-Train and rookie pick up, I shied away from JJ some. Parcell's boss has been talking about keeping JJ's carries at, or under 20/game. I'm not sure how much to faith to put on that, but it was enough to red flag him some, for me anyways. 

 

 

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Hey, it is sort of wierd for the Cowboys to have any players that are fantasy starters. I honestly do love the Cowboys rushing schedule, the additions to the defense should make the running game even more important this year and Jones looked like the read deal last year. I actually have Kevin Jones ranked slightly higher and I would have taken him but I already had D Davis who has the same bye week as Kevin. This league has no playoffs so it is overall 17 straight weeks and best record. I didn't want to already have a week with no RB only 3 weeks into the season.

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There's no doubt you need to respect that RBs are going to fly off the board. However, I for one won't be getting sucked into that hype. The reason is I've had much better luck finding RBs in the mid rounds of my recent drafts and on the waiver wire than I have landing QBs in those same locations.

 

Who were last year's "sleeper" QBs?

 

Brees

Delhomme

...and that's about it. The QBs who were drafted in the mid-rounds last year (Plummer, Hasselbeck, Brooks, Bulger, Green, etc) were junk -- terribly inconsistent. If you didn't get one of the top three (Manning, CPep, McNabb) or get Brees off the wire, your QB had you worried each week.

 

And what about last year's "sleeper" RBs?

 

Curtis Martin

McGahee

Tiki Barber

Julius Jones

Westbrook

Droughns

Larry Johnson

Pittman

Jerome Bettis

You could even get by with guys like Duce, Emmitt, Nick Goings, Steven Jackson, and others

 

 

I still tend to take two running backs in the first three rounds in most leagues. That's a general guideline, but no way will I go RB-RB-RB. And I certainly won't sweat taking a QB or WR if he drops too far.

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Not sure what chatter you're referring to Furd, but, I kind of remember talk about Manning & Pepper going earlier.  1.5 on Manning I'm sure is earlier & I'm pretty sure Pepper would've gone earlier if Moss was still around.

 

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Yeah , I think the chatter was basically saying if you take Peyton Manning in the top 5, you aren't crazy as he deserves to be there and CPEP/McNabb in the first round are solid moves too. I think beyond that, QBs are going to be the same as every year.......FREE - FALLIN'

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Did anybod win a re-draft in 2004 without taking 2 RBs in their first 3 picks?

 

820194[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Yes.

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Curtis Martin

McGahee

Tiki Barber

Julius Jones

Westbrook

Droughns

Larry Johnson

Pittman

Jerome Bettis

 

 

821061[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Many people who did well in their leagues last year picked up McGahee, Jones or Bettis off the WW early ... including me (McGahee and Jones), to pair with A. Green ...

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I think you're real weak at WR. After Holt, there are a lot of serious question marks and risks. WR's will hurt you.

 

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This was my first thought too. Your team is strong everywhere else. That being said, I realize WR's are a crap-shoot every year and there is always the waiver wire or a trade that can add a WR that's having a hot season.

 

If you're talking about a "sleeper" QB, don't forget Brees. If anything, he'll have even more weapons at his disposal than last year!

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Yes.

 

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We'll talk more when you get here but I'm looking for some sort of strategy to combat the RB frenzy.

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