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Early thoughts on Tatum Bell?


yo mama
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It's obviously too early to nail down anything in the Denver backfield. But any featured back in that system will have superior upside and opportunity.

 

I'm keeping LT for sure in my local. (12 team, Standard scoring, plus a little bonus for individual OFF players who do return duties). I'm leary of keeping Chris Brown as my #2 keeper, especially if Travis Henry goes to the Titans. But I just can't shake the feeling that Bell might be worth spending my 2nd rounder on.

 

Anyone care to share their thoughts on Bell?

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I like Bell alot..... he is worth a 2nd round pick.... just get Mike Anderson as a handcuff later on (I don't think Griffin will be his back-up). I am a little skeptical of Tatums durability but feel when he is healthy, he will be a stud (as every running back is) in Shanny's system.

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I like Bell alot..... he is worth a 2nd round pick.... just get Mike Anderson as a handcuff later on (I don't think Griffin will be his back-up). I am a little skeptical of Tatums durability but feel when he is healthy, he will be a stud (as every running back is) in Shanny's system.

 

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Regarding Anderson, I'm curious to see if he gets used primarily as a fullback or not. With the departure of Droughns, I'm inclined to believe Anderson will serve as mainly a fullback. And by all accounts, Anderson (no spring chicken, mind you) is back to 100% after tearing his groin last preseason. However, this article says (near the bottom) that Anderson is currently working out in a halfback capacity. http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=334&storyID=4159 So who knows.

 

Plus, Clarrett is in the mix. The Broncos didn't draft him just to fetch coffee and scones.

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I think Bell is the starter, period, and Shanny tends to like having one RB carry the vast majority of the load as long as he's getting it done. And we all know how Denver turn base metal into gold at the RB position.

 

The fly in the ointment, if there is one, is Clarett.

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I think Bell is the starter, period, and Shanny tends to like having one RB carry the vast majority of the load as long as he's getting it done.  And we all know how Denver turn base metal into gold at the RB position.

 

The fly in the ointment, if there is one, is Clarett.

 

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The fly in the ointment is Shanahan. I have absolutely no inclination that Bell is the starter, period, either. I have no doubt he is the most talented back there, but that doesn't seem to mean a whole lot to Shanny sometimes. He was the most talented there last year. Injuries, his status as a rookie, and coaching decisions kept him out quite a bit. Perhaps Denver homers can provide some insight, whatever that is worth, considering how notoriously tight Skeletor is with info.

 

Even if Bell is named the starter, he is just a fumble, injury, or whim away from being recycled to the end of the bench behind Quentin Griffin, Maurice Clarett, Mike Anderson, and yes, Ron Dayne. And trust me, if Rueben Droughns can emerge in Denver, so can Dayne.

 

What's worse, from a fantasy football perspective, is how quickly Shanahan can act on his whims. It's not like you can see them coming a week away. They happen while the game is being played that week. Start Bell, see him fumble, and never get another carry while one of the aforementioned RB's takes over the job for X number of weeks. I personally couldn't gamble a top pick on him.

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The fly in the ointment is Shanahan.  I have absolutely no inclination that Bell is the starter, period, either.  I have no doubt he is the most talented back there, but that doesn't seem to mean a whole lot to Shanny sometimes.  He was the most talented there last year.  Injuries, his status as a rookie, and coaching decisions kept him out quite a bit. Perhaps Denver homers can provide some insight, whatever that is worth, considering how notoriously tight Skeletor is with info.

 

Even if Bell is named the starter, he is just a fumble, injury, or whim away from being recycled to the end of the bench behind Quentin Griffin, Maurice Clarett, Mike Anderson, and yes, Ron Dayne.  And trust me, if Rueben Droughns can emerge in Denver, so can Dayne. 

 

What's worse, from a fantasy football perspective, is how quickly Shanahan can act on his whims.  It's not like you can see them coming a week away.  They happen while the game is being played that week.  Start Bell, see him fumble, and never get another carry while one of the aforementioned RB's takes over the job for X number of weeks. I personally couldn't gamble a top pick on him.

 

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A lot of truth in what you say. I was basing my feeling about Bell being the starter on him clearly being the most talented of the Denver crew. Shanahan is notorious for dumping an RB for one error, though - which is why he maintains a pool of potential starters.

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i'm not sure he's worth a 2nd round pick, but i'm also not sure of all your league details, but it sounds like a 2 team keeper with a draft pick as the cost for each. not sure how else tatum would be costing a 2nd rounder. anyway, going into this season, there are 2 things that have changed since draft time last year. the first is that top tier quarterbacks are now more highly coveted. the second is that running backs seem to be deep. with those 2 conditions in mind, there should be plenty of quality backs even if everyone only keep one player. i don't trust shanahan to not change his mind, so i guess it all depends on when you have to declare. as said, it kind of depends on your league and keeper rules, but right now, i don't think bell is worth a 2nd round pick. good luck.

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i'm not sure he's worth a 2nd round pick, but i'm also  not sure of all your league details, but it sounds like a 2 team keeper with a draft pick as the cost for each.  not sure how else tatum would be costing a 2nd rounder.  anyway, going into this season, there are 2 things that have changed since draft time last year.  the first is that top tier quarterbacks are now more highly coveted.  the second is that running backs seem to be deep.  with those 2 conditions in mind, there should be plenty of quality backs even if everyone only keep one player.  i don't trust shanahan to not change his mind, so i guess it all depends on when you have to declare.  as said, it kind of depends on your league and keeper rules, but right now, i don't think bell is worth a 2nd round pick.  good luck.

 

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Depending on the actual rules, in most keeper leagues the principle to bear in mind when keeping a player (or not), is whether that player would still be on the board in the round the pick is being sacrificed for. In the case of Bell, would he still be on the board in the second round, given that so many top RBs will be kept and therefore won't be on the board at all? I would venture that he would go in the first round in this case, thus he is worth keeping.

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Depending on the actual rules, in most keeper leagues the principle to bear in mind when keeping a player (or not), is whether that player would still be on the board in the round the pick is being sacrificed for.  In the case of Bell, would he still be on the board in the second round, given that so many top RBs will be kept and therefore won't be on the board at all?  I would venture that he would go in the first round in this case, thus he is worth keeping.

 

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i agree with the logic, and that's why i stated i think we need more details on the keeper rules. but assuming that everybody at least keeps 1 player and forfeits their 1st round pick, then the 2nd round is in essence the "1st" round. if half of the teams keep 2 players, then any pick in the 2nd round is really a top 6 pick overall. i also am figuring that manning, moss, and owens (maybe more) are kept. so i think if you sacrifice bell to keep your 2nd rounder, your pretty likely to be able to spend that 2nd round pick on a solid 2nd tier running back (12-20 overall). personally, i don't trust shanny to not change his mind or wouldn't risk bell getting injured because i think you could get an equivalent or better with your 2nd round pick.

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i agree with the logic, and that's why i stated i think we need more details on the keeper rules.  but assuming that everybody at least keeps 1 player and forfeits their 1st round pick, then the 2nd round is in essence the "1st" round.  if half of the teams keep 2 players, then any pick in the 2nd round is really a top 6 pick overall.  i also am figuring that manning, moss, and owens (maybe more) are kept.  so i think if you sacrifice bell to keep your 2nd rounder, your pretty likely to be able to spend that 2nd round pick on a solid 2nd tier running back (12-20 overall).  personally, i don't trust shanny to not change his mind or wouldn't risk bell getting injured because i think you could get an equivalent or better with your 2nd round pick.

 

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You've pretty much got it right, rhippens. Teams can keep 2, 1, or 0 players off last year's roster. I'll keep Tomlinson for sure, which means I spend my first round pick "drafting" him. If I keep Bell, I use my 2nd round pick to keep him. If I don't keep a second player, I am free to use my 2nd round pick to draft any player not already designated as a keeper by another team. (Pretty standard).

 

I figure 8 of the 12 teams will keep 2 players, meaning their decisions are locked in for the first two rounds. I figure the other 4 (including me) will keep only 1 player. Don't know my draft order yet. I also figure Manning, Culpepper, Moss, Owens, and at least 12 RBs are certain to be kept. That leaves an additional 4 players will also be kept and that list could include players like Vick, McNabb, Harrison, Holt, and maybe some more running backs.

 

If I throw back Bell and Chris Brown - and I'm only 1 of 4 players free to use their 2nd round pick on whoever they want - then I've got a pretty good shot at picking up Bell and/or Brown in the 2nd round if they are still on the board and they are the best value. However, if someone less risky is available, I could draft them instead. Plus, depending on my draft position and what the people ahead of me do, it is also conceivable that if I pass on Brown or Bell in the 2nd, one or both might *still* be there for my 3rd round pick. Though, its hard to get any comfort level on that just yet, because their availability at 3.1 is alot more certain than say at 3.12.

 

I suppose with the host of rookie RBs that will also be available, there shouldn't be any rush on my part to keep Bell or Brown as my second keeper. However, I just can't shake the hunch that Bell will be given every opportunity to succeed in one of the most RB-friendly systems around.

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I would definitely keep Bell. Let Brown go, you'll have a more reliable team for it. Trust me. Most projections have Bell going in the second anyway, so odds are that he will be the best player available for you. There is major downside if you let him go. You may not get him back. I'm a little concerned about RBBC with all of the rookie RB's at this point. The one with the least concern is Brown, but it looks like Williams is coming back. Use your 3rd round on the best player available and keep Bell. LT and Bell will make a great combo.

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i agree with the logic, and that's why i stated i think we need more details on the keeper rules.  but assuming that everybody at least keeps 1 player and forfeits their 1st round pick, then the 2nd round is in essence the "1st" round.  if half of the teams keep 2 players, then any pick in the 2nd round is really a top 6 pick overall.  i also am figuring that manning, moss, and owens (maybe more) are kept.  so i think if you sacrifice bell to keep your 2nd rounder, your pretty likely to be able to spend that 2nd round pick on a solid 2nd tier running back (12-20 overall).  personally, i don't trust shanny to not change his mind or wouldn't risk bell getting injured because i think you could get an equivalent or better with your 2nd round pick.

 

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Good post. In my two 12 man keeper leagues, we keep up to three, so I was basing my thoughts on the possibility / likelihood of up to 20 RBs being retained, or even more. If Bell was released under those circumstances, he'd be gone in the first, I think, unless Shanny makes a declaration in a different direction, or injury strikes.

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