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Green Bay IDP outlook


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Well, IDPers, here’s the initial outlook on all the Green Bay Packers who figure to be on the field a LOT this year.

 

Defensive Linemen

 

Starting LDE: Aaron Kampman – “Kamp” had a very solid season for both the Packers and his IDP owners in 2004, finishing with four sacks and one of the highest solo-tackle totals among NFL DEs. He’s not a “special” player by any means, but he’s pretty much what you look for in a strongside DE starter. He consistently finds the ball-carrier near the line of scrimmage and will add the occasional sack and batted pass. Last season, he had very little help along the D-line and still produced top-20 fantasy DL numbers. There’s no reason to believe he won’t at least duplicate, if not exceed, the same production – especially if the rest of the line improves.

 

Primary Backup LDE: Kenny Peterson – A former DT standout at Ohio State, Peterson is somewhat undersized, so he’s been learning the DE position since being a 3rd-round pick in 2003. He's still the favorite for backup strong-side DE, but he hasn't been very impressive in camp this year. I'm beginning to think they need to get him to gain weight and move back to DT. He just doesn't seem like a natural at DE. Meanwhile, Cullen Jenkins continues to impress and will see plenty of playing time in the D-line rotation.

 

Starting NT: Grady Jackson – Packers fans have grown to love the big man in the middle, mainly because he’s the only real run-stuffing presence we’ve had since Gilbert Brown in his prime. His forte is eating up blockers, not necessarily making plays. Probably not worth a roster spot in most IDP leagues, especially dynasty, since he’s a couple years from retiring.

 

Primary Backup NT: Corey Williams – James Lee hasn't excited anyone this offseason, so 2nd-year DT Williams (6-4, 310) took the opportunity to show the coaches he can play. Judging from all the camp notes, Williams is now the main backup to both DTs.

 

Starting RDT: Cletidus Hunt – Bane of the Packers salary cap, thy name is Cletidus. A few years ago, Hunt was considered to be on the verge of joining the elite group of NFL DTs. After signing a lucrative extension, though, he’s underachieved tremendously. The 2005 season will be critical for Hunt and, therefore, the entire D-line. If Hunt can return to the disruptive, virtually unblockable player he used to be, he’ll remain a Packer – and put up numbers similar to Shaun Rogers or Cornelius Griffin. If not, his future in Green Bay is doubtful and he’ll be a backup fantasy DL at the very best.

 

Primary Backup RDT: Committee of Cullen Jenkins, Corey Williams, & Donnell Washington – Okay, so there's one thing worse for fantasy owners RBBC. It's BUDTBC (backup defensive tackle by committee). Feel free to stay away from these guys.

 

Starting RDE: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila – What you see is what you get. KGB is one of Green Bay’s more consistent defenders, but he really only does one thing well – rush the passer. His improvement as a run defender has been slow, but he is getting better. He has the potential for 40-50 solo tackles and as many as 17 sacks, but he’s much more likely to remain at the 30-tackle, 11-14-sack plateau. KGB will remain a top-25 D-lineman in most IDP leagues.

 

Primary Backup RDE: R-Kal Truluck – In the event that KGB sustains an injury, the coaches believe Truluck will fill in nicely. They think highly enough of R-Kal to have made re-signing him one of their first offseason priorities. Truluck is approaching 30 years old, but he's only played 3 years in the NFL. If KGB were to go down, Truluck would get most of the snaps at his spot, but rookie Mike Montgomery is also getting some rave reviews, so he would figure to play a little.

 

DL Conclusion: Don’t expect much from any of the DTs. Kampman will keep his job on the strong side and should continue to score well. If KGB improves the rest of his game, he could be a top-15 fantasy player. If he continues to simply attack the QB, his tackle totals won’t be high enough to make him more than a decent starter. Out of training camp, Montgomery, Williams, and Jenkins have earned the most praise.

 

Starting SLB (projected): Na’il Diggs – Right now, most depth charts list Hannibal Navies as the starter on the strong side, but Diggs played SLB his entire career prior to 2004. Newly acquired Ray Thompson is a better fit at weakside ‘backer, so Diggs is expected to return to his natural position. Diggs is a solid defender, but nothing about his game is spectacular. He has the ability to blitz well and can make plays in coverage, but he doesn’t have the nose for the football that the game’s great tacklers possess. Among NFL SLBs, he’ll finish with mediocre fantasy numbers. Now, Diggs has a knee injury that will keep him sideline until almost the first week of the season.

 

Backup SLB (projected): Hannibal Navies – Navies displays good speed and athleticism, but he just doesn’t seem to be in the right place at the right time as often as he should. He doesn’t belong as an NFL starting linebacker, but he’s a good backup, especially on the strong-side. *Rookie Watch* Brady Poppinga could still develop into a good OLB, but he's been plagued by minor injuries recently, so he's not caught up.

 

Starting MLB: Nick Barnett – Remember the name, people. When guys like Ray Lewis and Donnie Edwards retire, Barnett will be the class of the MLB position. In 2004, he improved on his impressive rookie numbers and he figures to continue to get better for the foreseeable future. He could stand to add a little more bulk, but he still finds his way around blockers to become the only consistent tackling presence on the team. He’s not just a tackle machine, though – he can blitz well and he’s already one of the best coverage linebackers in the league.

 

Backup MLB: Unknown – Yes, that’s a cop-out. Fortunately, Barnett has a clean injury history, which is why the Packers chose him over E.J. Henderson and Gerald Hayes in the 2003 draft. Unfortunately, there’s no proven players behind him on the depth chart. I still believe that if Barnett actually went down, the coaches would try multiple players at the position and see who stuck. However, Roy Manning has been one of the stars of camp and, apparently, he's been learning well from Barnett. Reports are positive right now, so he could realistically end up as the firm backup MLB.

 

Starting WLB (projected): Ray Thompson – All signs point to Thompson becoming the Packers’ new weakside linebacker. He’s got the speed required of the position and he’s been productive there before (two years ago, in Arizona). Bates liked what he saw in Thompson before his injury last year, so he figures to be an immediate and consistent contributor in the new defensive scheme. Considering the lack of tackling prowess elsewhere on the team, Thompson has good upside at WLB. If teams try to avoid Barnett, Thompson will be the biggest benefactor.This isn't really news, but I've been reading more and more about how Bates and Co. are expecting a big impact from Thompson this year. He might still be a free agent in your league, so pick him up and expect 90 tackles and a few sacks. [/color]

 

Backup WLB (projected): Na’il Diggs – If Thompson were unable to go, it’s likely that Diggs would move back to the position he played last year. Then, the team would insert Navies into the SLB vacancy. Other than Paris Lenon, a below-average player better suited for the strong side, the only players in the mix for the backup WLB spot are brand new free agents.

 

LB Conclusion: Barnett and Thompson should be starting-caliber fantasy LBs, but Diggs will probably only deserve a bench spot for Barnett/Thompson owners. If one of them went down, Diggs would have a better opportunity to score.

 

Starting CBs: Al Harris & Joey Thomas – Harris proved last year that he was a legitimate #1 NFL cornerback. With the other CB spot in constant flux, Harris consistently played well against opposing teams’ best wideouts, leading the league in passes defensed through the middle part of the season. Down the stretch, Carroll (last year's 1st-rounder) started to show flashes of competency, all but assuring himself the starting spot opposite Harris. Under the new defensive coaching staff, however, Carroll has fallen out of favor quickly, opening the door for last year's 3rd-round pick, Joey Thomas. If Thomas keeps the job, teams will throw at him routinely throughout the season, so he should be a good value pick-up. However, if he struggles, the coaches will probably rotate him and Carroll quite a bit, eliminating the value of both.

 

Backup CBs: Don’t bother. Behind Harris and Thomas, Ahmad Carroll, Chris Johnson, and Jason Horton are all serviceable nickel corners, but none of them have any real fantasy value. I still believe the Packers' #2 CB will score well, so keep your eye on the competition between Thomas and Carroll.

 

Starting FS: Earl Little – Little was a cheap free-agent signing this year, giving the Packers some veteran help in the secondary. For fantasy players, though, he won’t be a significant contributor. He’s on the downside of his career, so he’ll only be expected to avoid mistakes in coverage and make the occasional tackle downfield. You can expect a few INTs, some batted passes, and 40-50 tackles…if he’s healthy all year.

 

*Rookie Watch* Backup FS (projected): Marviel Underwood – Green Bay’s other 4th-round pick, Underwood looks like he’ll be groomed to be the free safety of the future. Little will be very difficult to supplant in training camp, but in the event of injury, DC Bates would probably look to give Underwood some experience instead of tossing journeyman Todd Franz into the lineup.

 

*Rookie Watch* Starting SS (projected): Nick Collins – This “projection” is based on where the Packers took Collins in the draft and the comments Sherman made about him soon after. He’s a bit short for the position, but he’s got good stature and he plays physical. He’s also blazing fast. During training camp, there will almost certainly be a fair competition for the strong safety spot. So, Collins will have to beat out Arturo Freeman, a former Dolphins starter under Bates, and Mark Roman, a 2004 free-agent acquisition who played miserably throughout last year. I figure Collins to have the slight edge over Freeman, based on his superior athletic ability. Assuming he lands the gig, Collins will probably score well for his fantasy owners, mainly because the Packers won’t be very good against the run or the pass. Ballcarriers and wide receivers will frequently make it past the first and second levels of the defense, giving Collins opportunities to make tackles. He should also add 4-5 INTs and a couple of sacks. Jim Bates has been keeping Collins with the 2nd team (along with Underwood) throughout mini-camps, but I still believe he'll have a chance to win the starting job in training camp.

 

Backup SS (projected): Mark Roman – Given the probable competition during training camp, whoever doesn’t win the starting job will obviously become the backup. Roman has apparently used his "clean slate" with the new coaching staff to his advantage, because he's not on the street right now. Instead, the Pack surprisingly cut Bates's boy, Arturo Freeman, basically making it a 2-horse race between Collins and Roman for the starting SS gig.

 

DB Conclusion: Thomas is worth owning because teams will probably avoid Harris and throw at Thomas often. Among the safeties, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but it's a little less muddled now that Freeman is gone. If I were to guess, that would be a sign that they're confident in Collins's progress, but you'll obviously need to continue to pay attention to the safety competition right up until Week 1.

Edited by Swiss Cheezhead
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Excellent report there, hole Cheese man! This is like someone asking me about Vilma's future, but here goes anyway: Is Barnett that good, or is it a combination of a bad D, the system and his talents? I know he's put up great numbers, do you think he has staying power at MLB over the long haul? What's his role in the nickel and dime? Is he a good cover LB with enough speed to stay in on every down in the long term?

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Excellent report there, hole Cheese man! This is like someone asking me about Vilma's future, but here goes anyway: Is Barnett that good, or is it a combination of a bad D, the system and his talents? I know he's put up great numbers, do you think he has staying power at MLB over the long haul? What's his role in the nickel and dime? Is he a good cover LB with enough speed to stay in on every down in the long term?

 

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Is Barnett that good? I believe so. Like I said, his only "weakness" is his smaller frame (6'2", 233). He's one of the few linebackers in the league who can reliably make the interceptions he should make and he's proven to be a good blitzer. He also has good instincts; I've seen him make good risk/reward decisions on the field quite often. Yes, he has the speed and, yes, he stays in on passing downs.

 

You can't really say the system is responsible for his production, since he's played under two different D-coordinators. The defense is generally bad, yes, but Barnett definitely stands out as an elite defender.

 

As far as him staying at MLB "over the long haul", I'd say that's about 90% or so. First of all, I think he'll continue to gain muscle weight until he hits 240-245, so eventually the coaches won't worry about him getting "swallowed up" as much. Ray Lewis had the same concerns as a young player, though. Secondly, the only possible scenario in which I could see the Packers moving Barnett to OLB would be if an outstanding, ideal MLB prospect fell to them in the draft. The chance of that happening in the next several years is pretty slim. And if Barnett WERE to switch positions, his playing style would suit the weak side much more than the strong side.

 

So, from an IDP perspective, I'll make a bold statement: over the next 6 years, Nick Barnett will score more fantasy points than any other player in the NFL.

 

Does that answer your question? :D

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I'll take a piece of that action.... Vilma vs: Barnett. What say?

 

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Gee...how'd I know that was coming? :D

 

Barnett and Vilma are very similar players, actually, and I'd say Vilma is probably the only LB in the league who could challenge Barnett for the 6-year production total. But, if I'm not mistaken, he had some injury concerns in college, right?

 

Barnett was healthy in college and hasn't missed a game yet in his career. If it's a race between Barnett and Vilma, durability could become a big factor, so I'd give the slight edge to Barnett.

 

If we're still in DW2 together 6 years from now, I'll pay your 7th-year dues. :D

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  • 2 weeks later...
From today's Wisconsin State Journal...basically says that the new coaching staff is all over Ahmad Carrol, who does not look like he's progressed since last season.  Joey Thomas should have every opportunity to win the starting job opposite Al Harris.

 

http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/sports/ind...d=42370&ntpid=4

 

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By the way, FM, thanks for cluing me in to the Carroll/Thomas situation. :D

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There was another article today on jsonline.com saying that it appears Thomas has taken the lead in the race for the spot opposite Harris.  It even quoted Carroll basically conceding the fact that he is being outplayed by Thomas.

 

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I like Carroll, but I'm just happy somebody is out there with something to prove. If Thomas earns that spot, I'll be ecstatic -- Carroll would do well in the nickel role and would eventually replace Harris. :D

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I like Carroll, but I'm just happy somebody is out there with something to prove. If Thomas earns that spot, I'll be ecstatic -- Carroll would do well in the nickel role and would eventually replace Harris. :D

 

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Another point made by the article was that one of these players stayed in Green Bay for offseason training and the other did not. Can you guess which one?

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Another point made by the article was that one of these players stayed in Green Bay for offseason training and the other did not.  Can you guess which one?

 

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Yeah, I heard about Carroll "working out" elsewhere. Not sure what the hell the kid's thinking.

 

Still, it sounds like his "issues" can be coached out of him, so I'm still confident he'll turn into a good player.

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  • 1 month later...
Backup SS (projected): Arturo Freeman – Given the probable competition during training camp, whoever doesn’t win the starting job will obviously become the backup. I personally believe Roman is a slug, so I predict it will come down to Collins and Freeman. Roman could, however, enter the mix as a backup.

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Freeman was just cut by the Packers. :D

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Packers | Freeman Released

Sun, 14 Aug 2005 07:08:59 -0700

 

The Green Bay Packers have released S Arturo Freeman. He had signed with Green Bay this past offseason after beginning his career with the Miami Dolphins.

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Packers | Freeman Released

Sun, 14 Aug 2005 07:08:59 -0700

 

The Green Bay Packers have released S Arturo Freeman. He had signed with Green Bay this past offseason after beginning his career with the Miami Dolphins.

 

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Under Bates, who is the better IDP play? The SS or FS? What was it like in Miami?

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News: Since Joey Thomas has been nursing a hip injury throughout most of camp, Ahmad Carroll has taken back his starting LCB spot...for the time being. It seems that the coaches like Carroll in the slot in nickel and dime, so it would surprise nobody if Thomas re-emerges as the starter once he's healthy. The potential for a "revolving door" scenario can't be ignored.

 

Also, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Nick Collins is now a starting safety. FS or SS, you ask? I have no idea. He's been playing both and various reports have him as the starter at each position. Maybe we'll have one guy playing both FS and SS this year. :D It couldn't end up much worse than the safety play we got last year. :D Anyway, there hasn't been much difference in production, historically, between the FS and SS in Bates's scheme.

Edited by Swiss Cheezhead
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:D Now I dont feel quite so stoopid!!

 

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Roman is actually emerging as a favorite to start opposite Collins as well (which would pretty much mean Collins stays at FS, since Roman is a slow, unaware piece of crap).

 

Roman may have just been a terrible fit in last year's scheme, but he certainly looked like he didn't belong on an NFL team. If he's starting, I'm afraid it says something about the rest of our DBs. :D

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