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"10 Fearless Predictions for 2005"


rajncajn
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From FoxSports.com

From FoxSports.com

Ten fearless predictions for 2005

Gregg Rosenthal, Senior Editor / Posted: 6 days ago

 

 

I wanted to rank Anquan Boldin as a top five wide receiver. That's what hit me, with some regret, while reading through our new RotoWorld.com magazine (hint, hint). Boldin is my guy. He has more catches in his first 26 games than any receiver in NFL history. He finished fourth among fantasy wideouts as a rookie, while catching passes from Jeff Blake and playing for Dave McGinnis. That's like winning the league's rushing title with a placekicker strapped to your leg.

So why didn't I have Boldin ranked higher? I didn't have the stones. It didn''t fly well in the RotoWorld.com headquarters. This article is my second chance — a place to predict the outcomes too shocking for The Man. No matter how bold the predictions, it's comforting to know they won't approach the impending insanity this season. Just try to remember what people were saying a year ago about Reuben Droughns, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Billy Volek and Brian Griese. Nothing. With that in mind, here are 10 outcomes we can see unfolding this season.

 

His list with my comments

 

1. Anquan Boldin will lead the league in receptions and be a top five receiver.

This isn't so bold. Boldin has played only one full season as a pro. He was a top five receiver at a notoriously difficult position for rookies. Now entering his third year, Boldin is healthy, playing for Dennis Green, and will come cheaply after an injury-marred second season. Back at his natural flanker position, Boldin barely needs a third-year leap to catch more than 100 balls and be a monster in points-per-reception leagues.

 

My thoughts exactly. Precicely why I traded for him in Fusion last year while he was still injured & why I also have him in DWII.

 

2. Larry Johnson will score more fantasy points than Priest Holmes.

No, we'd never draft LJ ahead of Priest. We've been picking Johnson up as a RB3 or RB4 in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts (6-7). He's a nice gamble there. That's because we absolutely question the desire and health of Priest Holmes. Holmes is a player who talks about retirement every off-season. Respected Kansas City Star columnist Jason Whitlock put it succinctly last year, "Holmes suffered a season-ending excuse to sit out the rest of the season," once his team was out of contention. The Chiefs originally expected Holmes back shortly after his MCL strain, and he missed eight games. No surgery was required. He'll be huge if healthy, but that isn't the type of guy we want to use a top five pick on.

Had multiple offers come in for him in DWII. Traded for him and Leftwich last year giving up Bulger & a 3rd round rookie pick. I expect big things from LJ by mid-season opening the door for Holmes to ride off into the sunset.

 

 

3. Brian Griese will be a top eight quarterback.

Here are 10 of Brian Griese's 2004 starts projected over a full season: 3,900 yards, 30 TDs, 19 INTs. That's remarkable considering Griese was with a new team and had a terrible offensive line with only one decent receiver. He only needs to keep that pace up to make this prediction true. With an improved offensive line and Cadillac Williams in the fold, look for it to happen.

It's not about Griese anyway. It's about Gruden. It's about Gannon. Don't believe us? Listen to Bill Walsh, who knows something about quarterback play. "Jon's on the cutting edge of offensive football,'' Walsh said. ''I don't think there's anyone more innovative than Jon Gruden and, consequently, I think he has a real edge on a lot of his opposition."

How about Griese?

''I think he's matured each year, and at this point he's at his very best,'' Walsh said. ''He's at the peak of his career, and I think that'll demonstrate itself this year.''

That's good enough for us.

Not so sure about this one. Griese is a notorious choker.

 

 

4. J.J. Arrington will lead rookie running backs in fantasy points.

It's all about touches. The "Big Three" rookies (Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson) have productive veterans looming behind them. Thomas Jones will take most of the passing down work from Benson. That could be considerable if they are always trailing. Starting in Week 5, Ricky Williams could make a forceful running back by committee in Miami. Michael Pittman and/or Charlie Garner will allow the Bucs to ease Cadillac Williams into NFL life.

A lot of fantasy owners are probably thinking right now, "What about Marcel Shipp?" What about him? This is the same guy who lost his starting job to Emmitt Smith. That was before breaking his leg and hurting his ankle last season. Coach Dennis Green has already said he expects big things this season from Arrington. We do too.

While I'll agree Arrington will likely get more touches I still think that Brown will be the best of the bunch.

 

5. Brandon Jacobs leads the Giants in touchdowns.

We can already imagine the future message board cries from Tiki Barber owners. Duce Staley owners knew the drill for the first part of last season. Staley did the work, Jerome Bettis got the glory. Based on early reports, the full-bodied Jacobs could be a remodeled 'Bus' — or more. We only have to look back to 2003 to find a season where Tiki gained over 1,700 total yards, but scored only three times.

After trading for Tiki in DWII I made sure I nabbed Jacobs in the rookie draft. I'll have the NYG RB position locked up for a long time. Hopefully it doesn't stay RBBC.

 

6. Kelly Holcomb finishes the season as the Bills quarterback.

Honestly, we're starting to feel bad for dumping on J.P. Losman. He's impressed teammates with his work ethic this off-season, and obviously the coaching staff believes in him. He's very talented, but there is a combination of factors working against Losman making it all 16 games. His scrambling style of play and the poor offensive line in Buffalo could result in a ragged first year.

The Bills haven't made the playoffs this century and are desperate to please their incredible fans. With a very tough schedule in the second half, Holcomb may be Buffalo's best chance to win, even if Losman is healthy.

Not exactly a bold prediction IMO, but I'll disagree regardless. I think Losman will definately struggle this year. But the Bills can't possibly expect to have a chance at the playoffs & therefore will let him gain the experience.

 

7. Travis Henry leads an AFC South team in rushing.

Perhaps this isn't that bold. But considering we grabbed Henry with the 119th pick in our latest "Expert's" Draft, not many owners project a trade yet. As a Henry owner, I'd rather see him end up in Jacksonville if Fred Taylor's status deteriorates. It's more likely, however, that Henry ends up in Tennessee. The Titans offered a fourth round pick; the Bills want a third-rounder. Chris Brown is an injury waiting to happen and Tennessee's current backup is … Damien Nash? Henry also has a similar workmanlike style to Eddie George. That appears to agree with Jeff Fisher more than Brown's boom-or-bust style. Look for Henry to get dealt and make an impact.

 

Could be very likely if he goes to either team.

 

8. Tatum Bell leads the AFC in rushing yards.

In Mike Shanahan's 10 seasons as Broncos coach, they finished in the top five in rushing eight times. They've finished in the top two four times. Even in a season where Denver was stuck playing their fourth-stringer most of the season (Reuben Droughns), they finished fourth last year. Enter Tatum Bell.

Like Clinton Portis, Bell was drafted in the second-round of the NFL Draft. Bell is now a safe bet to get drafted in the second round of fantasy drafts. It's a somewhat risky mid-summer pick because of the depth in the Denver backfield. But Shanahan's history is clear — he doesn't do committees if he can help it. If Bell stays healthy, he should top 1,500 yards.

 

I wouldn't trust a Denver RB if my life depended on it...especially in a keeper or dynasty league.

 

9. Ahman Green falls off a cliff.

There's a lot to like about Ahman Green this year if we just ignore that … 1. After five years of starting and 461 touches in 2003, his body broke down last season; 2. He has an excellent backup; 3. He lost two Pro Bowl-caliber guards from his offensive line; 4. His team led the league in passing attempts last season because of their terrible defense; and 5. Their defense looks worse than ever.

Something I've been predicting the past couple of seasons & finally, with his dynasty contract up after this season, decided to bite the bullet and trade him away rather than have to either shell out the cash to keep him or risk losing all value in him if my predictions turn true.

 

10. Saints hire Jim Mora Sr. after 1-4 start, and he leads the ''Aints" to their first Super Bowl.

We can just imagine his reaction to this prediction, "Super Bowl? Super Bowl? We can't be thinking of the Super Bowl! We're trying to win one game." Of course, the Saints would ultimately lose Super Bowl IX to New England after a missed extra point by John Carney in the closing seconds.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D :violin: :D

Edited by rajncajn
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# 1 - he forgets about Larry Fitzgerald. Too much good young talent in Arizona for either to lead the league, IMHO.

 

#2 - he's a year early plus based on how early Johnson is going in at least every mock around these parts it realy isn't fearless.

 

#4 - it will be Arrington or Brown so I don't see the prediction as fearless either.

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# 1 - he forgets about Larry Fitzgerald.  Too much good young talent in Arizona for either to lead the league, IMHO.

 

853370[/snapback]

 

 

 

There have been plenty of offenses that have supported two top fantasy WR's. Carter & Moss, Holt & Bruce, Harrison & Wayne... Arizona will still have to put the ball in the air a lot this year to keep up with their division, I see no reason why Boldin can't put up big numbers.

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There have been plenty of offenses that have supported two top fantasy WR's. Carter & Moss, Holt & Bruce, Harrison & Wayne... Arizona will still have to put the ball in the air a lot this year to keep up with their division, I see no reason why Boldin can't put up big numbers.

 

853393[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I'm not saying Boldin cannot put up good numbers I believe he will but I don't believe that he will lead the league in receptions.

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re 3: I took Griese as my backup QB in the first Huddle mock draft for these very reasons. I took heat for the QB's I picked, but Carr was my first pick and I think both QB's will be better than predicted (not great but steady producers)!!

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I enjoy the effort thoroughly. I'm sure you'll get lucky on a handful of these due to the NFL's random nature. Not that you asked but I'll throw in my analysis for fun.

 

1. Anquan Boldin had his huge year BECAUSE of Jeff Blake, not despite him. Jeff Blake has always targeted one receiver very heavily which gives him big stats (i.e. Carl Pickens. Note--Darnay Scott's stats where garbage for years until Pickens gets hurt and ultimately leaves and Scott now becomes Blake's "Target". Denny Green won't let that happen, especially since Larry was handpicked by Green himself. I like Boldin alot, just not top 5 alot.

 

2. I love LJ and can't wait to take him way too early in my keeper league and stash him away, but Priest is gonna have a big year in what should be a rejuvinated Chiefs 05.

 

3. Though improved, still not enough weapons on the Bucs. Sorry, just not into Griese or the Bucs.

 

4. JJ Arrington will be fantastic but will NOT have the most fantasy points of rookie RBs. The quote said to go with Arrington because of touches......however, his biggest detraction is that he isn't big enough to handle that many touches. One of the other 3 will have a very big year. Don't know which one, but one will.

 

5. Brandon Jacobs?? You gotta be kidding me.

 

6. Losman will be their QB, win or lose this year, they have no choice.

 

7. I like Travis Henry alot, I think he runs as hard as anyone. You could be right on the money with this one. However, it seems like Fred is now going to be ready for camp, so hold your breath. I don't understand how Henry's not a Titan right now.

 

8. Man I love Tatum Bell in the short term. Man. Awesome prediction.

 

9. I just don't have it in me to write off Ahman at this point. I've thought the Packers were going to be bad for years now and they just continue to will themselves towards the playoffs. This year, I think Ahman kind of wills himself to fantasy points.

 

10. I really can't figure out what is wrong with the Saints. For some reason its kind of starting to bother me.

Edited by Seahawks21
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Where do they get the guys who write this crap. I disagree with all 10 of his assertions.

 

1. Anquan Bolden will lead the league in receptions? No way in he11. Way too many other options at wr. Larry Fitzgerald anyone? Isnt Bolden still grumbling about a new contract? Plus an over the hill Kurt Warner is the starting QB in AZ. This prediction is just stupid.

 

2. LJ was in Vermeil's doghouse from the time he was drafted up until the last half of last season because of his poor work habits and worse attitude. Anybody remember Vermeils infamous "He needs to take off the diapers" comment last year? He couldnt even beat out Derrick Blaylock for the starting role once Priest went down. Talk was he was going to be traded to Miami or simply cut. Now he is being annointed the new and improved Priest? I dont think so. If Priest stays healthy, LJ will rarely sniff the field. If Priest goes down then LJ plays. HUGH gamble to take anything but a late flyer on this guy, or to back up Priest if you have him on your roster.

 

3. Griese a top 10 QB? I doubt it seriously. But he isnt horrible either. I think Gruden uses Griese wisely so he doesnt hurt the team and lose games. I am not down on Griese but I can think of at least 15 guys that I think will be more productive at the qb position.

 

4. I like JJ Arrington alot and he is going to the perfect spot in AZ. That said, I like Ced Benson and Ronnie Brown more. I say that they both finish ahead of JJ this year. Cadillac is a bit further back imo.

 

5. Brandon Jacobs could have 3 td's and lead the Giants in touchdowns. I am not high on the G-Men at all again this year. This is a bad offense, a below average defense, led by a coach the players abhor. I want nothing to do with Tiki, Jacobs, and any Giant for that matter.

 

6. Kelly Holcomb is a local kid (Lincoln County High) here in Middle Tennessee and I like the kid. But there is zero chance he beats out JP Losman for this job. Barring injury, Losman will be the Bills starter all 16 games. Whoever thinks otherwise is huffing aerosol spray in a bag.

 

7. To lead the AFC South in rushing, Travis Henry would have to first get traded to an AFC South team, which is likely. Then the starter on that team would have to be out for the season, which is certainly possible with Chris Brown and Fred Taylor's histories. Then he would have to outrush the likes of Edgerrin James(Indy), Dom Davis(Houston), and either Brown(Titans) or Taylor(Jags). The stars alligning just right and all of these things happening is far fetched at best. And the writer saying that Henry reminds him of Eddie George is just stupid and ignorant.

 

8. Tatum Bell could lead the AFC in rushing but he wont be doing it on any of my fantasy teams. I dont trust Skeletor one bit and without Bronco Billy here to tell us who to start each week, its just too big of a gamble. :D

 

9. Ahman Green gets injured last year and this guy is ready to throw him on the scrap heap? Perhaps the dumbest of all this guys predictions. I see Green having a bounce back year. He was ranked in the top 5 rb's last year on everyones cheat sheets. Dont give up on him yet or you will regret it. And who exactly is this excellent backup the guy mentions? Fisher? Davenpoop? Please. Green will have an outstanding year.

 

10. The Saints will never go to the Superbowl. Ever!

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10. Saints hire Jim Mora Sr. after 1-4 start, and he leads the ''Aints" to their first Super Bowl.

We can just imagine his reaction to this prediction, "Super Bowl? Super Bowl? We can't be thinking of the Super Bowl! We're trying to win one game." Of course, the Saints would ultimately lose Super Bowl IX to New England after a missed extra point by John Carney in the closing seconds.

 

 

 

The saints in Super Bowl IX?

 

:D

 

Isn't this going to be Super Bowl XL?

 

:D

 

No, wait ......, What year is this? :D

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The saints in Super Bowl IX?

 

:D

 

Isn't this going to be Super Bowl XL?

 

:D

 

No, wait ......, What year is this?  :D

 

854425[/snapback]

 

 

 

And the Pats first SB appearence was XX.

Edited by Big John
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1. Like Seahawk 21 said, Anquan Boldin had his huge year BECAUSE of Jeff Blake, not despite him. Jeff Blake has always targeted one receiver very heavily which gives him big stats.

 

I don't remember Warner targeting his receivers a lot last season on the NYG.

 

2. Priest will outscore LJ, easily.

 

3. Griese will be top 15 with Clayton and Galloway around.

 

4. I think either Carnell Williams or Cedric Benson will lead all rookie RBs in fantasy points.

 

5. Like Seahawk21 saind, Brandon Jacobs?? You gotta be kidding me.

 

6. If Losman comes unglued, yes, I could see Holcomb finishing out the year as the starter.

 

7. I think Henry will still be on the Bills and be totally honked off about it.

 

8. Love Bell, but I don't trust Shanny.

 

9. Agree with Cajn on Ahman.

 

10. Haslett should have been out last year, but he got lucky. This year is his swan song.

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