The Official #3 Pick Thread

[Roo]

That's not to say it's the worst, but it's the pick that creates a very tough decision.

 

For most of us, because LT and Alex will be taken, the choice is between Manning, Holmes, or a "safer" RB like Edge.

 

Factors:

1. 6 pts or 4 pts per pass TD

2. How many QBs you can start (usually only 1)

3. Number of coaches in league

 

 

I think the first factor is simple. If your league awards 6 points per TD, then you can start to favor Manning slightly. You're talking about roughly 60-70 more points on the season, or about 4-6 per game. It's significant enough.

 

The second factor is key too. If your league starts 2QBs, there is even more reason to grab Manning, knowing there will be an innevitable run to grab QBs, and recognizing that the makes the pool twice as shallow. Paring Manning with any other decent QB gives you a nice advantage over a guy with say Favre and Pennington.

 

The third factor is what I really want to look at, because it really comes down to the wire. If you pick third in a 10 person draft, that means you also pick #18 overall. So do the math. How many RBs are there that are suitable as your #1 RB? Then take that number and subtract it from 18. That's the number of non-RBs you need to be taken before your second round pick.

 

So let's say there are 14 RBs who you consider worthy of being your number 1. And let's say that 14th RB is Rudi. For you to land Rudi, you would need 4 non-RBs to be taken. That could be too much if you think about it (Manning, Moss, Pepper, and Owens?).

 

For a 12 team league, you would need 8 non-RB players to be taken before pick #22, and in my opinion, that is pretty unlikely. This year, the trend, despite a deeper RB pool, is to grab those two starting RBs from the middle positions.

 

The key is knowing your league. If you think enough coaches will start to reach for those top WRs and QBs, it might be worth the gamble on Manning. If you think your league's coaches will favor the RB slot, and most will try to be landing two solid ones in the first 2 rounds, then you could easily be left with someone like LaMont Jordon as your top RB (this is less likely in a 10 man league).

 

Please post your thoughts/advice. Right now I happen to be in a 10 team/4 pts/2QB league, and I am leaning towards gambling on Manning, and hoping Rudi or Tiki falls to me.

[Wolv]

I'm not counting on Manning having another monster year. I'll go Edge. A Manning pick can make for below average #2 RB in bigger leagues....

[playsccr]

im in a 12 team league that starts: 1qb,2rb,2wr,1flex(rb/wr)

 

6 points for all tds..non keeper..im biting the bullet and taking the priest...

[jjpro11]

im in a 12 team league that starts: 1qb,2rb,2wr,1flex(rb/wr)

 

6 points for all tds..non keeper..im biting the bullet and taking the priest...

 

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i have this pick too.. 1 qb 2 rb 3 wr 1 te 1 k 1 d - 10 team league

6pts all td including qb

 

i still am not sure what to do.. theres a small chance someone will take manning or holmes ahead of me, in that case id take alexander in a heartbeat.. ive seen it in mocks. but if they dont i think ill go manning.. then chances are i will land a good #1 rb.. a jones, rudi, barber.. im pretty confident in that.. after that ill see whats there in the 3rd.. i may take a chance with jordan.. if not steven jackson could be around also.. i also cant forget curtis martin might slip that far as well. id say its a lot tougher in a 12 team league and having #3.. in that case you should really go with either edge or holmes.. holmes will do better but only if he stays healthy.. in that case id go with edge.. holmes killed me last year and won it for me 2 years ago. GL

[Clubfoothead]

Nice topic. Glad you forked over the $20.00. I consider you a good addition to this dungeon, not that that means anything.

 

At 6 points per TD Manning is a legit choice but I just can't take a QB before the 5th round at best.

 

For me, I'll take Lewis if I can't trade down.

[BigTen]

I am stuck in the Holmes, Lewis, Edge zone, HELP!!!

 

I have good and bad feelings about all three. But the most upside is definately Priest.

[Clubfoothead]

I am stuck in the Holmes, Lewis, Edge zone, HELP!!!

 

I have good and bad feelings about all three.  But the most upside is definately Priest.

 

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Most downside, too.

 

If you can't trade out of the #3 you just have to go with yer gut. That is the fantasy football kiss of death for me.

[playsccr]

Most downside, too. 

 

If you can't trade out of the #3 you just have to go with yer gut.  That is the fantasy football kiss of death for me.

 

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would you swap with the #12 draft pick instead of your 3rd? i takeover the 12th spot meaing i would get to end and start everyother round

[Clubfoothead]

would you swap with the #12 draft pick instead of your 3rd? i takeover the 12th spot meaing i would get to end and start everyother round

 

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Possibly.

 

My preferred spot in 12 team leagues is 7-9.

[LegFuJohnson]

In a 10 team/2QB league, I think Manning is the easy choice at #3. I think he's the choice at #2. It's a tough call at #1, but not impossible to take him there as well.

[Roo]

In a 10 team/2QB league, I think Manning is the easy choice at #3.  I think he's the choice at #2.  It's a tough call at #1, but not impossible to take him there as well.

 

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I tend to agree, I am just really nervous that my top RB will be C. Mart. It's not THAT bad, as long as I get Blaylock later, but it just doesn't feel like a winning team.

 

And yes I would swap for the 12 hole in a 12 team league. That's a hot spot in my opinion - you let everyone else try to pick between a bunch of great RBs, and you walk away with Jones and Rudi.

[SLGRAF]

I'd definitely pick whomever is left of LT/Alexander/Manning at #3. I think there is a significant gap from LT/Alexander and the other RBs, and, I also think there is a significant gap between Manning and the rest of the QBs. Culpepper lost Moss, and McNabb is on such a great team, that they probably will not need to pass a ton to win their games.

[Clubfoothead]

Roo, I don't think it is but whenever I reply to one of yer posts keep in mind I've missed one season of fantasy football since 1988 and have never won a league.

[playsccr]

im just looking at some numbers...this is a bit lengthy so hang with me...

 

lets say i take manning at 3 overall out of 12....now i have picks 3, 22, 27

 

lets say that between my pick of manning and then my next pick @ 22 the only other non RB taken is Moss...(this is "worse" case scenario)..

 

basically your looking at the #20 overall rb overallon your list or 4/5 big wrs (TO, holt,CJ,marving)...

 

the rb i have on my list would be lamont jordan.....

 

i would take jordan here.... so im sitting with manning, l jordan...and i now youre looking at 4 players that are going to be taken before your pick @ 27 is up.. lets say dante is 1 of those picks (23-26) and then a big wr takes place then you will get your choice of one of the remaing big wr threats....

 

now if the 4 picks end up being the big wrs then you get to choose the 21st rb on your list...

 

so you could look at a team like..manning, l jordan, m harrison

 

or manning, l jordan, jj arrington/m bennett/staley etc....

 

let me know what you guys think

[LegFuJohnson]

In most scoring systems, the QB scores more...

Sure, in a normal setting the reason people pick RB's early, is because people feel safe starting the 8th or 9th best QB, and don't want to be scrounging for backs.

 

But with starting 2QB's, I gotta think people will pick QB's early, and they should.

 

10 team league, you are picking 3rd and 18th. How many RB's do you really think will be taken? If that many RB's are chosen that you are left with Curtis Martin... fine, take him. Then take McNabb or Bulger in the 3rd round. People will be starting Pennington and Palmer and wonder why they keep losing to you.

[Roo]

"or manning, l jordan, jj arrington/m bennett/staley etc...."

 

See that feels rough to me - not a team I would want. That team that would probably be dealing with RB issues all season, and not even have a stud WR, while the guy with LT and Trent Green laughs in your face. Then again, I am used to a 10 man league, so I used to having more talent on my squad.

 

LFG, good points. I persoanlly think in my league, That Pepper and McNabb will go before 18, but Moss may not. However, by me picking Manning, I may send people in to a QB fury that works to my advantage. It's a risk I am probably going to end up taking. Honestly, my league is darn good, that's what really worries me - they are smart enough NOT to let a decent RB drop to me.

 

But you're right if I am running with Manning and Bulger each week, look out.

[BigMikeinNY]

I have the 3rd pick in my draft also.....12 team league

 

As I look more and more, its actually not that bad

 

#3, #21, #27

 

Option 1.Big RB (Priest, Edge, maybe even LT or S.A. if someone takes Peyton) and then two big WR's (Marvin, Horn, A.Johnson)

 

Option 2. Brig RB and then a decent RB (Tiki, Lamont, Steven J) and then a decent WR

 

Either way, I am starting to get more satisfied with the #3 pick, even in a 12 team league. I can have great starters every week!!

 

Whatcha think?

 

BigMikeinNY

[Roo]

Yeah I mean it's not like their aren't great options, it's just a matter of picking one.

 

What if you take Manning and then Moss falls to you 2nd round? You take him?

 

(this seriously might happen in my draft)

[playsccr]

Yeah I mean it's not like their aren't great options, it's just a matter of picking one. 

 

What if you take Manning and then Moss falls to you 2nd round?  You take him?

 

(this seriously might happen in my draft)

 

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i think you have to take him there

[jjpro11]

i think you have to take him there

 

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alexander fell to #3 for me.. so i took him then ahman green in the 2nd and trent green later on. (10 team league)..

[Roo]

I think you'd have to take Moss there too. But wow, that's a dangerous experiment - on the ohter hand you would have the #1 WR and the #1 QB (why did I just get the feeling that neither of them will finish #1).

 

JJpro - you lucky dog. No worries for you, but I am 90% the guys in front of me are going LT and Alex.

[Goopster24]

I'm not counting on Manning having another monster year. I'll go Edge. A Manning pick can make for below average #2 RB in bigger leagues....

 

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I agree with this 100%.

[insideout33]

great topic.

the #3 in a 12 team is definetely the tuff spot this year.

i agree, that the #1, 2 are locks (LT2, SA).

there is also a big drop between manning and the rest of the qbs, and the top 2 RBs and the remaining ones.

 

as for me (12 team), there's a chance that SA will fall to me, with the #2 guy taking manning. if so, i'll be smiling all the way to the #21 but if not, i think i'm going with Edge (though this 'safe' option killed me last year with Ahman in the #4 last year).

i think this year, more than any, there are more QBs that fall into a 2nd tier than before. we score the same for QBs and RBs (other than 1pt/20pass vs 1pt/10run.

getting a STUD rb, and a qb in the 6-8 (i.e. palmer, green,brady) is not bad at all.

will manning get 40+ TDs?

 

right NOW i'm taking edge over holmes, and magahee.

holmes is big upside but big downside. magahee, i don't know why i see him so high. i know he had a good season for the games he played and will be a stud, but with a young qb, i see the box being stacked and he's no LT2 right now.

edge seems to be back (2 full years from knee?), is playing for $$, and you have to figure Def Coordinators will do anything to keep manning from lighting them up again, this year

 

all that being said, i'm taking HEAP!!!

[ROCKNE]

I'm not counting on Manning having another monster year. I'll go Edge. A Manning pick can make for below average #2 RB in bigger leagues....

 

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Why would you not think Manning will have another big year, something like 4500 yds & 40td's? He ahs the same offense in place with everyone back. I'm just curious because I have the first pick in a 10 team league & a 8 team league. I'm going back and forth between LT & Manning. We get 6 pts for passing TD's.

[lynch]

Why would you not think Manning will have another big year, something like 4500 yds & 40td's? He ahs the same offense in place with everyone back. I'm just curious because I have the first pick in a 10 team league & a 8 team league. I'm going back and forth between LT & Manning. We get 6 pts for passing TD's.

 

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Look at the percent dropoff between Peyton Manning and the next couple of QB's. Then look at the percent dropoff between the RB you could take at three and the Rb you could take in the 20's.

 

If you do the math right you will see that there is more of a dropoff at the RB spot. Manning will outscore every other player in most every scoring style, the thing is that the dropoff in the level of QB play is less, especiall from the top QB's to the second set of QB. The second level of RB's produce significantly less points than the top RB's and that is why most people suggest going RB early.