Number of Offensive Plays by team for 2005

[keggerz]

last nite in the Steve Smith thread PanterDave commented on the panther D and how it would effect the offense.

 

Here is what he had to say:

Will Smitty have a 05 season again-No

Why? This is now a very balanced Offense with three more quality WR in Key, Carter and Colbert. The RB are solid and have very nice depth.

This offense can attack in many different ways this year and with the Defense they have this year..well they will be playing from a short feild.

Smith does not have to have the same kind of year for the Panthers to be a much more dominant team, and they are very balanced on both sides of the ball-Fox and Hurney didn't want Smith to have the same kind of year..because it does not put them where they want to be...Super Bowl.

Smith will have a great year 1100-1200 9-11 TD's-good numbers for a WR.

 

 

so I got to thinking and wanted to look at the number of offensive plays ALL teams had last yr along with their avg yrds/play. It really isnt easy to figure out how the short field will effect the panthers numbers but I guess by looking at the avg yards/play and then prognosticating their total number of plays you can come up with a number for a basis to create projections for total yards and then break that down to rushing and passing yards.

 

So here it is:

 

TEAM	PLAYS	AvgYds/Play	AFC	BUF	930		  4.4				  MIA	1026		 5.1				 NEP	1031		 5.5				 NYJ	907		  4.4				  BAL	1056		 4.4				 CIN	1018		 5.6				 CLE	938		  4.9				PIT	960		  5.4				  HOU	954		  4.2				IND	1000		 5.8				JAX	1021		 5.0				TEN	1022		 5.0				DEN	1030		 5.6				KCC	1059		 5.8			   OAK	997		  5.0				SDC	1022		 5.4			   NFCDAL	1071		  4.9NYG	1055		  5.5PHI	1027		  5.0WAS	1037		  5.1CHI	937		   4.4DET	955		   4.5GBP	1051		  4.9MIN	945		   4.9ATL	1021		  5.1CAR	964		   5.1NOS	1017		  4.9TBB	985		   4.8ARZ	1075		  5.2STL	1025		  5.4SFF	865		   4.1SEA	1020		  5.8

 

 

So a few observations:

1. SF SUCKED with by far the fewest OFFENSIVE PLAYS(865)

2. NYJ SUCKED TOO with the second fewest offensive plays(907)

3. If you take SF and NYJ out and take an average for number of plays for all teams

with less then 1000 plays you get an average of 957 plays

4. The average # of plays for all teams that had 1000 or more plays was 1034

5. The average yards/play for all 32 teams comes out to 5.03(not exact since i just averaged the avg for each team but i am sure its still pretty close)

 

 

So I am sure you can use these numbers in many different ways but since we were discussing Steve Smith and the Panthers last nite I am just gonna continue to use the panthers for the rest of this post.

 

In 2003 the panthers had 1008 plays

In 2004 the panthers had 991 plays

In 2005 the panthers had 964 plays

 

2003: 48.21% passing plays, 51.79% running plays

2004: 57.42% passing plays, 42.58% running plays

2005: 49.48% passing plays, 50.52% running plays

 

So it looks like 2003 and 2004 pretty well were evenly balanced between passing/running plays.

One should summize that Carolina will try and use a balanced attack again this yr.

 

Lets look at PROJECTIONS for 2006:(utilizing 03,04,05 for reference points)

1.) 2006: Offensive Plays 957(the avg of 3-12 teams w/ the least plays in the nfl last yr)

2.) 2006: Passing Plays 48.85%*

3.) 2006: Rushing Plays 51.15%*

4.) 2006: Passing Attempts 455

5.) 2006: Passing Completions 269(59.12% completion %)

6.) 2006: Passing Yards: 3355(avg. 12.5/completion)

7.) 2006: Keyshawn Receptions: 50(approximations from #2 avgs in 03/04)

8.) 2006: Keyshawn Yardage: 655(using keys lifetime YPC of 13.1)

9.) 2006: Steve Smith Yardage: 1308**

10.)2006: Steve Smith Receptions: 91***

11.)2006: TD's well you got me I dont know how to come up with a factor for that

12.)2006: Rushing Plays 502

13.)2006: Rushing Yards 1717****

 

The more I look at these numbers and for some reason in my gut feel like they are gonna post slightly more plays and increase the passing and rushing numbers incrementally...anyway you cut it IMO it looks

like a solid year for Smith, Keyshawn Delhomme, Foster & Williams.

 

*I used an average of 2003 & 2005 since there was a spike in total plays in 2004

 

** I used 39% of passing yards to come up with this number, in 03 Smith ended the year

as the number 1 WR and accounted for 36.4% of the recvng yards...but it should be noted that

he didnt start the year out as the #1 WR so that % should be a bit higher. In 04 Mushin was the

#1 WR and he accounted for 38.6% of the recvng yards. In 05 Smith was basically a one man show

and accounted for 47.8% of the recvng yards. Since 05 is a spike and 03 and 04 seem to be much

more in line with what can be expected I used 39% for the #1 WR porjections for this yr. Why did I

make it .4% more then 04 and not just average 03 & 04? Because Smith is firmly entrenched as the play maker and cog that makes things happen in Carolina so I felt that adding .4% wasnt much of a stretch.

 

***Used Smith's YPC avg of 14.4 to come up with 91 catches

 

****I used 5.3/yrds/Play, so 957plays*5.3=5072.1-3355(passing yrds)=1717.1

 

So I guess in the end if you really want to try and project out what a specific player is going to do hit NFL.COM and ck out their 3 year averages and factor in the other things that could change those averages. Not sure if this post is going to be any help for anyone but I did put a good amount of time into researching the numbers, so if you dont like it

Edited August 16, 2006 by keggerz

[LooGie]

 

jeez dood. You're like...a little mini god or something. Great post man....now stop slacking and do it for the other 31 teams already

[Brentastic]

Nice post but...............

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

tell me something I don't know All that work to decipher that S. Smith is the rawest WR in the league.

 

Still a great read I had to razz you a bit.

[Big Score 1]

This post is strangely familar...where have I seen it before

[wildcat2334]

interesting post I wish I had that kinda time- all those numbers make give me a buzz.

[keggerz]

Nice post but...............

tell me something I don't know All that work to decipher that S. Smith is the rawest WR in the league.

 

Still a great read I had to razz you a bit.

 

if you want to give me another player to project out I can give it a shot

 

This post is strangely familar...where have I seen it before

 

 

 

 

so seriously if someone wants me to try this for another player let me know

[Brentastic]

if you want to give me another player to project out I can give it a shot

so seriously if someone wants me to try this for another player let me know

 

How bout a Harrison/Wayne comparison? Harrison has to slow down eventually. Is this the year?

[keggerz]

How bout a Harrison/Wayne comparison? Harrison has to slow down eventually. Is this the year?

 

i had a feeling that someone would come up with this one....give me some time and let me see what I come up with....fwiw the problem with this one is the fact that they lost edge and there is really only one sample season to look at for that and it will take some subjectivity to figure out if harrison is going to continue to give way and by how much...but I will give it a shot....one that probably would have been a good stats one to use would have been the JAX situation

[Brentastic]

i had a feeling that someone would come up with this one....give me some time and let me see what I come up with....fwiw the problem with this one is the fact that they lost edge and there is really only one sample season to look at for that and it will take some subjectivity to figure out if harrison is going to continue to give way and by how much...but I will give it a shot....one that probably would have been a good stats one to use would have been the JAX situation

Hey,

 

You can roll with that one if you like. I just kept M. Jones in my BOTH league, so I'd certainly be interested in that analysis as well.

[keggerz]

Hey,

 

You can roll with that one if you like. I just kept M. Jones in my BOTH league, so I'd certainly be interested in that analysis as well.

 

 

Ok so here goes:

 

I again looked at the previous 3 yrs

 

Offensive Plays Ran:

2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass)

2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays)

2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays)

3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays)

 

I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections

I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays)

 

PASSING STATS:

2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9%

2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5%

2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1%

 

going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections

 

RECVNG STATS:

2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds)

WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

*Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games)

 

2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds)

WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

 

2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds)

WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds)

WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds)

 

 

OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections

There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course):

1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04

2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006.

 

2006 Projections:

1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass)

PASSING

59% Completion %

295 Completions

500 Attempts

3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds)

 

RECVNG

WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards

WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards

WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage)

 

So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be:

WR1=72/1122

WR2=45/612

WR3=39/442

 

as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs....

 

hope someone finds that this helps if not