muck Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 (edited) After three weeks, things have started to fall in line a bit. Point spread predictions are new this week (prolly a few of you won't like them). For a quick refresher to those who are new to the weekly thread, I have used a combination of (i) backwards looking strength of schedule, (ii) forward looking strength of schedule, (iii) historic margin of victory and (iv) the historic margin of victory of a teams' future opponents to calculate projected W/L % for each team. Below is a projection for the playoff teams, the top few picks in next years draft, and projections for the winners and losers of week four: Playoff teams: 12-4 BUF (2nd easiest forward looking schedule in the NFL) 12-4 DEN (5th easiest forward looking schedule) 12-4 TEN (1st easiest forward looking schedule) 9-7 BAL (13th HARDEST forward looking schedule) 8-8 PIT (8th HARDEST forward looking schedule) 8-8 JAX (7th easiest forward looking schedule) 12-4 DAL (7th HARDEST forward looking schedule) 10-6 ARI (16th easiest forward looking schedule) 10-6 GB (6th easiest forward looking schedule) 9-7 TB (14th easiest forward looking schedule) 11-5 NYG (3rd HARDEST forward looking schedule) 10-6 WAS (12th HARDEST forward looking schedule) Top Picks in the 2009 NFL Draft: 1.01 3-13 KC (4th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.02 3-13 STL (1st hardest forward looking schedule) 1.03 4-12 DET (14th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.04 5-11 CLE (2nd hardest forward looking schedule) 1.05 6-10 IND (8th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.06 6-10 HOU (4th EASIEST forward looking schedule) 1.07 6-10 NYJ (10th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.08 6-10 CIN (9th EASIEST forward looking schedule) 1.09 6-10 SEA (5th hardest forward looking schedule) 1.10 7-9 MIN (11th EASIEST forward looking schedule) Week Four Winners (19-12 after two weeks) --- point spreads are new this week: BUF wins at STL by 13.0 ARI beats NYJ at home by 5.0 BAL wins at PIT by 2.0 CIN beats CLE at home by 2.0 TEN beats MIN at home by 5.0 JAX beats HOU at home by 4.5 DEN wins at KC by 9.0 SD wins at OAK by 3.0 DAL beats WAS at home by 2.5 PHI wins at CHI 1.5 GB wins at TB by 0.5 CAR push ATL (i.e., conflicting predictions) SF wins at NOR by 2.0 Edited September 23, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 wondering where Philly falls? If they win (as you predict) this week, they move to 3-1, with the easiest part of their schedule ahead of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 wondering where Philly falls? If they win (as you predict) this week, they move to 3-1, with the easiest part of their schedule ahead of them. I've got them at 10-6 and just out of the playoffs ... one big reason of which is that their forward looking schedule (per me) is the 6th hardest in the NFL (WAS's is 'only' the 12th hardest) ... also, WAS gets more 'credit' for having built its record against teams that have performed better in non-WAS games than PHI has against teams that have not done as well in non-PHI games (hope that makes sense). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 As we saw last year, there are a few teams currently projected to the playoffs that are more likely to fall off the pace than other teams projected to the playoffs due to their harder-than-average schedule -- BAL, PIT, DAL, NYG and WAS. At the same time, a few teams projected to the playoffs have a comparative cakewalk -- TEN, BUF, DEN, GB, JAX... Regarding the crappiest teams, HOU, CIN and MIN all have pretty easy schedules and will have an easier time of righting the ship than will STL, KC or CLE due to their substantially more difficult forward-looking SoS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 I love this weekly thread - keep up the great analysis Muck I'm curious what ATL's forward looking SOS is - I don't see them listed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 24, 2008 Author Share Posted September 24, 2008 I love this weekly thread - keep up the great analysis Muck I'm curious what ATL's forward looking SOS is - I don't see them listed. ATLs forward looking SoS is the 13th easiest in the NFL; projected out at 8-8 for the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 (edited) ...this weeks' action is going to make the predictions for next week rather interesting... BUF wins at STL by 13.0 (BUF wins by 17) ARI beats NYJ at home by 5.0 (NYJ wins by 21) BAL wins at PIT by 2.0 (tbd) CIN beats CLE at home by 2.0 (CLE wins by 8) TEN beats MIN at home by 5.0 (TEN wins by 13) JAX beats HOU at home by 4.5 (JAX wins by 3) DEN wins at KC by 9.0 (KC wins by 14) SD wins at OAK by 3.0 (SD wins by 10) DAL beats WAS at home by 2.5 (WAS wins by 2) PHI wins at CHI 1.5 (CHI wins by 4) GB wins at TB by 0.5 (TB wins by 9) CAR push ATL -- no prediction due to conflicting predictions (CAR wins by 15) SF wins at NOR by 2.0 (NOR wins by 14) Edited September 29, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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