matt770

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Everything posted by matt770

  1. There are two types of people in the world, those with short attention spans and

  2. There are two types of people in the world, those who have narcolepsy aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

  3. There are two types of people in the world -- I forget the first kind, but the second kind is racists.

  4. 4000 square feet of gorgeous, emerald green fescue takes hard work.

  5. Turkey wrap for lunch today...no, wait...tuna?

  6. Dolphins

    Trent Green -- Getting up there in age, coming off a concussion, in a new offense, with a rookie QB who they want to be the future waiting in the wings. Seems 50/50 that he plays 16 games, and that may be optimistic. Which brings me to: Ronnie Brown -- As goes the QB situation, so will go Brown's season. We saw how he did with a mediocre passing game to protect him last year. His high ranking must assume the QB situation will be solid, i.e., Green plays well for most of the season, forcing defenses to defend the pass as well as the run. Is that an assumption in which I can be confident enough to take Brown in the middle of the first round?? Brown may be the ultimate high risk/high reward player this year. Chambers -- Same situation. With a healthy Green, will likely produce at his expected value. Without Green, who knows?? Green and Chambers are easy enough to pass up and let someone else draft. I think Brown is going to give owners fits in the middle to late first round when there is a drop off in value to the next RB. Take a chance and gamble your season on him, or take a "safer" RB who may have much less upside?
  7. Dolphins

    Not saying anything about Payton, but Brees, Colston, Bush and a healthy Deuce had a lot more to do with their turnaround than he did. A weak division helps too. The Phins are largely unchanged except for an aging QB, a very questionable first round WR choice, and a first time HC, and they face much stiffer competition.
  8. Michael Vick's Property Raided again

    Fair enough...but I'm not a Colts fan, and my impression of him before the big miss was probably similiar to most casual observers -- the most accurate kicker in the NFL. Granted he played his home games in a dome which didn't hurt, plus the rest of the division is in the south as opposed to, say, Soldier Field, but still, very impressive. Then he misses the most clutch kick of his career (at home, in the dome), and now he's done. It's always fascinating when someone falls that far. Come to think of it, he's not unlike Michael Vick...
  9. Dolphins

    That is not the consensus on him but that would be about right in my opinion, maybe slightly overvalued. If he stays healthy, I think he can be serviceable. He's not going to touch his KC numbers at his age with that supporting cast. A reasonable hope is that Green stays on the field and is able to move the ball and keep defenses from stacking the box. That is the only way Brown is worth his ADP. LT was a superstar since high school, and is a unique talent to say the least. Brown is no LT. People talk about Cameron like his play calling made LT the player he is today. In his first year of coaching a team that has been very bad lately, that plays in a very good division, and faces a daunting schedule, Cameron better be Vince Lombardi. Even the best coaches usually need 2-3 years at the very least to turn a team around, though there are notable exceptions. When I pick in those two rounds, I also want a high floor, and the less risk, the better. I want the guy to offer a solid baseline number, with upside for a lot more. I can see Brown being a complete bust this year and no one would be particularly surprised (look no further than '06). I think a breakout year could happen, I just wouldn't want to gamble my season on it. My comments are more aimed at the top 10 RB ranking I've seen of him. If he's going 2.04 in drafts, I can't argue with that TOO much.
  10. Dolphins

    You have to consider that Green just turned 37 and is not exacly a lock to set the AFC on fire. He is coming off a severe concussion and walking into a new offense. He has a serviceable WR in Chambers and a good pass catching RB in Brown but not much else to get excited about. The offensive line is worrisome, to say the least, and that cannot be ignored. And even if Green manages to stay upright, there is a second round pick waiting in the wings who they hope will be their future franchise QB. So they better win games. What happens if they start off 1-7 and the fans and media start screaming for a QB change -- this season is lost, give the kid some playing time. So there are legit reasons to fear that Green doesn't play 16 games, which could all but kill Brown's production. He's not going to be a #1 caliber RB without a good passing game to keep defenders honest, and simply to move the ball to give him some scoring chances. Is Brown good enough to carry the entire offense? He wasn't last year. Granted this is all worst-case scenario stuff, but I still say that the conditions will have to be almost perfect for Brown to be worth a first round selection, and there is no precedent with Brown to be overly confident. If all this wasn't bad enough, take a look at the Dolphins' schedule, particularly late in the year. They face a lot of tough run defenses, especially in FF playoff weeks. They play the NFC east, and throw in the Steelers (week 11) and Ravens (week 15 ) Four games against the Jets and Pats (week 16 ) will be tough too. All in all, an uphill climb for Brown to be a stud RB and worthy of a 1st round pick.
  11. Are the Pats getting sentimental?

    I was surprised when I saw this too. My guess is he's there for veteran leadership and depth in the secondary?
  12. Michael Vick's Property Raided again

    You know who I've been thinking about? Mike Vanderjagt. Guy was the NFL's most accurate kicker, now seems to have fallen off the face of the earth. That one miss negated everything positive he did in his entire career, and now that is all anyone will remember. Man, I don't shoot heroin, but I would if I was that guy.
  13. Keeper League Commissioners

    In my league we announce keepers on the day of the draft, in order of last year's finish. Then in reverse order, each guy selects his draft position. Last year's turd can pick any slot from 1-12, then #11 picks from what is left, etc. It works out pretty well.
  14. Michael Vick's Property Raided again

    No, but one was named Valtrex.
  15. Michael Vick's Property Raided again

    I'm still trying to figure this one out. My neighbor bought a pit bull pup at around 6 months of age. He has 2 young kids, which would be enough for me to avoid the breed altogether. But he defended the choice, saying it's not the dog, it's the breeder and the owner. Then he tells me he thinks the dog was beaten because it flinches when he raises his hand up to pet her. So he encouraged me, and anyone else around to come over and pet her, to help "socialize" the dog. At first the dog loved me and I would often go over and pet her. She is now around 15 months old and I don't like going near her. One time she growled and looked like she was about to snap at me, and often she looks a little tentative when I approach, like she can't decide if she wants to be nice or go for the jugular. At this point she probably senses fear in me, but honestly every dog I've been around has loved me and I think this one is just a rotten apple. I have this sense of impending dread that this guy's little daughter is going to be rushed to the hospital one day because the dog snapped and decided to bite her face off. How a parent of young kids could bring a dog like that into the house, knowing their history, just boggles my mind.
  16. who to take at 10 and 15?

    Bring a cheat sheet to the draft either from a site that you trust or your own rankings, or a combo of both. All players should be arranged in tiers to help you decide if a certain player is worth drafting at a certain spot. At #10, you will probably be deciding between a tier 2 RB or a tier 1 WR. The number of players at each position drafted before you, and the number left in each tier, and your best guess of what the owners will do with their next picks will be your determining factors for who to pick at 10 and 15. In most drafts, a lot of RBs are drafted in the first round, and in your case, probably the best receiving RBs will be off the board at 10. Maybe you will get lucky and some other idiot owners will go after WRs or Peyton in the 1st, and Westbrook, Bush or Addai will fall to you. Even if they don't, I would still probably take the top RB available and a WR at 15.
  17. Dolphins

    many thanks.
  18. Dolphins

    Many of you are probably not aware that they dropped the "i" from their name this year. Why can't I edit the subject heading?? [putting on flame suit]
  19. favorite football announcer

    Al Michaels. I liked Madden when he was in his prime but now I feel sort of embarrassed for him.
  20. On the other hand, many of us feel that this kind of hateful attitude has no place here, and Grits was way out of line last year for dictating to others what they could and could not post. People were posting "rate my team" messages and he would reply something inane like "10093998473.933272" to EVERY one. Someone called him on it, and he went on a diatribe about how useless RMT threads were, then when someone would disagree he would make a show of adding them to his ignore list. I for one was happy to be on his ignore list, and annoyed when he later responded to one of my posts. And meanwhile, plenty of helpful, interested users were participating in those RMT threads, so the obvious takeaway was, if it bothers you so much, just don't read those threads. Bronco Billy had good advice on the tone and unwritten rules around here. Good stuff. There is a wealth of collective knowledge here, and the more you read, the more addicted you will become, and speaking from experience, the better you will do at FF.
  21. I think I got a great deal but you be the judge. 10 team IDP keeper league, standard scoring. Keep one offensive player, one IDP, plus any '06 rookie. My potential keepers: Cadillac, Wayne, Dunn, Eli. My rookie keeper is DeAngelo Williams. Cadillac seems like a no-brainer as my second keeper, but honestly I have probably the worst 2 keepers in the league. Another owner offered me Reggie Bush and his #7 pick for DeAngelo Williams and my #1 pick. His other keeper is Larry Johnson. Since there will be no huge names available early in the first round, my plan was to move down in the draft order anyway (each owner gets his choice of remaining draft slots, so at #1 I could pick anywhere I wanted and was planning to move to the 4, 5 or 6 slot). After everyone makes their keeper selections, here is who I expect to be available: McGahee, Westbrook, Henry, Edge, Parker, Ronnie Brown, Chester Taylor, plus ALL the top WRs except Colston. So at 7 I can land one of those RBs or possibly a T.O., Harrison, Fitz, etc. Tiki helped me win this league in '05, but thanks to his and Cadillac's disappointing seasons last year, I fell to dead last. And with Tiki retiring, I was the weakest team coming into this season. I took this trade without hesitation. With Deuce still in the mix, I will temper my expectations for this season, but down the line I think Bush's role will continue to increase and certainly by next year he could be a top 5 back. I was trying to get excited about DeAngelo, and I do think he will be much improved this year, but Bush's raw talent and supporting cast make me believe he could be putting up LT-like numbers over the next few years, and is head and shoulders a better prospect than DW at this point in their (very young) careers. And given that I didn't want the #1 pick anyway, I don't feel like I gave much up. Good trade, great trade or a wash?
  22. Pick a keeper

    10 team keeper league, standard scoring. I thought I had my keepers figured out but I'm not so sure now. In my league I get to keep an '06 rookie and mine is Reggie Bush. I then have one more keeper and am stuck between: Cadillac Reggie Wayne I pick 7th. Last year most teams kept 2 RBs and 6 of the first 10 picks were WRs. This year I project the following RBs to be left unprotected: Westbrook, Edge, McGahee, T. Henry, Parker, R. Brown. My plan all along was to keep Cadillac, but now I'm thinking keep Wayne and figure one of the above will fall to me at 1.7. If not, then Caddy will be there and I'll just snag him anyway. The above is assuming Cadillac continues his mediocrity and Wayne goes for ~1100 yds and double digit TDs, both of which are reasonable bets. Plus, the RBs above are all better or equal to Cadillac in my estimation, so I'm not risking much. Anyone think I'm underestimating the Cadillac this year? Or overvaluing Wayne?
  23. Pick a keeper

    Next question, rank the following RBs: McGahee Westbrook Parker Edge J. Jones T. Henry R. Brown C. Benson B. Jacops Cadillac
  24. Average Draft Position

    Over the past few years I've been trying various drafting tools and techniques. The tools I have used include FF magazines (as a beginner) and the player rankings here on the Huddle and other sites. One technique I dabbled in last year was value based drafting, which I found fascinating but I don't know that I could rely on it over my own intuition. But I was just checking ADP on one of the popular mock draft sites (guess which one?) and I got to thinking: guys doing mock drafts in June must be pretty serious, right? And their picks would reflect whatever source(s) they use to rank players, whether it be this site, other sites, message boards, or whatever. So in effect, those ADP rankings are a pretty nice cross section of all the opinion out there, sort of a consensus of each players' value. I bring this up because I have been burned in the past by "experts" who were high on certain players and turned out to be way off. I now know better than to rely on any site's rankings over my own common sense and judgement, but with FF being far from an exact science, I just can't get away from the idea that ADP would have to be the most safe and sane method of starting a cheat sheet (and of course tweak based on your own preferences and judgement). Assuming of course the data is from a reliable source ("serious" knowledgable players doing mock drafts) and a large data sample (preferably hundreds of mocks). I would be interested in hearing opinions on this, and if anyone has actually used ADP as their primary source of player rankings.