Tford

Terrorists are compelled by the power of our maple syrup.

Feeling lazy tonight, probably just going to make a stirfry or something.

Does anything ever get by you? I won't lie to you, you are kinda scary knowing everything about everyone.

#45, twas my number in hockey.

The salsa in my house get used more at breakfast than any other time. I could live off of breakfast burritos.

Albeit short, McFedries v. Kampmann was one of the better matches on the card. Nothing could match the raw emotion of the main event but I think this one symbolized the versatility of Martin. Drew was really laying a beating on Martin in the stand-up game. He landed alot of heavy shots to Martin's left eye and it was swelling fast. Martin then took the fight to the ground and tried to beat McFedries that way. Drew tried to block a choke attempt from side control but Martin passed across Drew and locked in the triangle from the side. Drew was out. Great fight, great card. I bet Dana will be stoked now that Sylvia isn't the HWC anymore.

Aug 4, 1983, my friend.

No BJ post to shoot me down, looks like I pass for a true 23 yrs old.

I guess that was when I was a kid. Mind you, my total debt is only 250k. That puts me at 200k for the wife and 200k for the daughter. Probably still a little thin, and I do have twins on the way. How bad is the premium increase to get into the million range?

The rule that my father said to me was, "Get enough to cover your house/debt and burial costs and then at least 100k per person you leave behind." Thus I have about 650k for life insurance. That's Canadian dollars though

+1 Agreed. Make this deal while M. Bell appears to be the feature back in Denver. Because in a short while, you know that Shanahan will pull another RB out of thin air to split carries with him. You get a stud WR in Wayne and a cheap prospect RB that may get thrown to the forefront depending on the situation with Warrick Dunn. I like it.

I was born in '83

Can't you do it in Excel and cut it over to the word file?

Gotta say that I like Alstott at the goal line alot more than I do Caddy.

Sorry to hijack the thread but; Wiegie, what do you do for a living? Just curious as you seem to have a solid feel for stats. As you probably assumed already I am an engineer.

I used Probability and Statistics for Engineers by Soong. A wiki reference helped too I guess.

If you assume a geometric distribution, the expected value is not (1-p)/p but it is in fact E(N) = 1/p leaving you with an expected value of 10, very close to my crude methodology answer of 9.96. The variance is the same however. (1-p)/p is the expected value of consecutive failures, not the success expected value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

Last time, I promise, I guess my first post was right. The probability of selling a car is P(success)=1-0.9^K The probability of N=K is P(N=K) = 1 - 0.9^K - P(success at K-1) since the sample stops when a success is reached thus the probability of success at N=1 is 0.1 and the probability of success at N=2 is 0.19, then P(N=2)=0.19-0.1=0.09 This is easy to accomplish with an Excel spreadsheet. Multiply K by the probability of N=K and sum your answers. You should get 9.96.

Nope, love the bewb shake. Not enough to make me watch the whole show though.

What's wrong with unloading a handful of your guys in a trade to make the decision easier? It's worth exploring in my opinion. If the offers turn up nothing, then labor over your decision.

I am going to spend my lunch hour choking down some Chef Boyardee Beefaroni.

He said that Gore will be kept; I'd say try to get Rudi or the best RB available after the first 4 picks. Having three elite RBs (assuming Drew continues as he did despite sharing with Taylor) will open up more doors than getting a top WR will in terms of trading, insurance for RB injuries and the like.

I'm in a bit of an odd situation in a new keeper (keep 3) league that I joined. The inaugral draft order was drawn and I drew 6th of 12; giving me 1.06, 2.07 etc. The team that drew 1.01 repeatedly stated that he was interested in shopping the 1.01 pick. I laid out a modest initial offer hoping to spur some negotiations of my 1.06, 2.07, 6.07 and 08 1st rd for his, 1.01, 2.12, 15.01 and 08 4th rd. He countered swapping out my 6.07 pick for my 4.07 and I accepted. Despite other deals being on the table, he accepted mine. Done deal. About a week after, he emails me back saying that he didn't know that the league was a keeper league depsite the league rules stating it as well as the league invitation. He also says that many people that he has talked to said that he did not ask enough for the deal and he'd like to reopen negotiations. I found out later that he had unsuccessfully lobbied the commish to overturn the trade. This league has gotten off to a rocky start and I'd like to see it succeed but in my opinion the initial deal was fair market value as my deal was the deal out of the offers available. However, I do understand that he may have changed his mind about trading if he had knew about the keepers initially. What would you say to this guy if you were in my shoes? And more importantly, how would you say it?

I thought about offering to trade the pick back to him but ask for more than I originally parted with.

Sigh, who would have thought that a guy would have so many issues surrounding a cheap league? The issue seems to have quelled itself down after I mustered the guts to assert myself a bit (not my forte). Thanks for the responses.