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Everything posted by tomfin2000

  1. Couple observations

    4 -- Leftwich is every bit as terrible as Boller. I'm glad he had four great games last year in shootouts against againt three of the league's worst defenses, but don't let the stats fool you. The Jags may have a new coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball, but it's not going to help as long as Leftwich is behind center. He has no pocket presence (he was sacked at least four times), doesn't make his reads quickly enough, and tends to lock on one receiver (Jimmy Smith). For those of you that have Reggie Williams pegged as a sleeper, don't waste your time. He's going to continue sleeping until we get a better QB under center.
  2. Reggie Williams projected stats--

    As a Jags homer, I had high hopes for Reggie this year as well and like many others, I also had him pegged as a solid sleeper. Well, I just watched their first preseason game tonight, and forget it. Reggie Williams is going to have the same problem he had last season: Leftwich sucks. The guy has no pocket presence, doesn't make his reads quickly enough, and seems to think that he's playing in a one receiver set with Jimmy Smith as the one reciever. Yeah, it's just the first preseason game, but I've watched these guys long enough to know that I'm seeing the same thing I've been seeing for the better part of the past two years. I was excited about the new OC (Carl Smith) but we could have hired Charlie Weiss and it wouldn't have made a difference with this bunch. Del Rio needs to wake up and start Gerrard.
  3. Holt CJ and Harrison

    I actually like Chad Johnson better, and here's why: 1.) He's been a stud for the past three years in spite of playing for two different coaches and two different QBs. 2.) He's been a stud when he's played against the best defenses in the NFL (Ravens, Steelers, Patriots) and when he's played against the best shut down corners in the league (Bailey, McAllister). 2.) He's two years younger than Holt and five years younger than Harrison. 3.) He has a rapport with both Palmer and Kitna. If Palmer goes down, he shouldn't miss a beat with Kitna. 4.) The Bengals offense continues to improve and they return all 11 starters this year. 5.) He was targeted more than any other WR in the NFL last year. Although Houshmandzadeh has become a fine possession receiver, he's still the Keenan McCardell to Chad Johnson's Jimmy Smith. Last year, Bruce and Wayne often played the role of the No. 1 receiver to the detriment of Holt and Harrison's stats. Taking Owen's recent antics into consdideration, the only WR I would rather have than CJ on my roster as of today is Moss.
  4. 2d/3d tier RBs

    Well, I just found out tonight I have the second overall pick, so I'm pumped! Come to papa, Shawn! (Or maybe even LT if the guy at No. 1 decides to take Manning!) Back to your question, I would happily take LT, Alexander, Holmes, McAllister, Lewis and Dilllon in the first round depending on where I was picking. If I was picking late, and they were all off the board along with Manning and Moss, then I suppose I would have to give Edge, Davis, Rudi Johnson, and Barber consideration.
  5. Reggie Williams

    I'm a Jags homer and I have Williams pegged as a major sleeper, but I wouldn't drop one of your guys to get him. Your team is solid from top to bottom.
  6. 2d/3d tier RBs

    McAllister - Has great individual talent, no major changes at the other skill positions, an upgraded line, and a new OC that favors the run. Thumbs up. EJ - The Indy offense and the inability of opposing defenses to stack the box make him look a LOT better than he actually is. Sucks at the goalline even when given oppoturnities. A safe option, but won't give you many monster games and isn't worth a high first round pick IMHO. Holmes - Who's the best player in Fantasy Football? Whoever is lining up at the RB position for the Chiefs. Take Holmes, then take Larry Johnson in the fourth or fifth round before anyone else can get him. You could start both of them each week and probably outscore most of the other teams' RB tandems. If Holmes goes down, you could probably pair Johnson with just about any other chump that gets a handful of touches and STILL outscore most of the the other teams' RB tandems. The Chiefs' running game is just that good. Lock it up and you don't need much else. McGhee - Great individual talent, but way too big a risk to spend a high first round pick on, especially with a new starting QB. I want to see another year of production before I spend a top five pick on him. Portis - I don't care how talented Portis is. That offense sucks and they did very little to upgrade it during the offseason. Expect the same kind of season he had last year and don't take him unless he falls to the second round. R Johnson - One of the most underrated backs in FFL as far as I'm concerned. He's surrounded by great skill players and solid offensive line, so I full expect him to be a top ten back again this year. Great value in the second round (or even at the end of the first) and a very safe pick. Barber - Barber's numbers will decline. He's getting older. He's an injury risk. He'll lose goalline carries. Blah, blah, blah. Sounds a lot like last preseason, doesn't it? Even if he loses a few TDs to Jacobs, he's still a better option than half the guys on this list. J Lewis - Personally, I can't stand him or the Ravens, but honestly, he's solid first round pick. He plays for a run first team with at great defense and a great offensive line. He's going to be out for blood after the year he's had, and the upgrades at the skill positions, although not spectacular, can't hurt. Dillon - No reason why he can't do what he did last year, especially with the talent he's surrounded by. Another solid first round pick. Dom Davis - High risk, high reward. There's always the threat of injury, and the Texans offense makes me nervous as well. Not the best first round pick, but a steal in the second round if he falls that far. J Jones - Great potential, but it's hard to spend a high draft choice on a guy that doesn't have a full year of experience as and NFL starter. After getting burned by William Green in 2003 and Quintin Griffin and Lee Suggs in 2004, taking guys like this makes me nervous. Kv Jones - See above. Probably a safer pick than Julius though do to his skill set and the situation he's in. Martin - I see no reason why he can't turn in yet another solid season. I'm sure there will be a decent drop from last year's stats, but I'd still rather have him than a lot of the backs mentioned above, and he'll come a lot cheaper on draft day. A Green - I would say "see Martin", but the downgraded offensive line and the potentially horrible defense puts him in a less desirable situation than Curtis is. Still a safer option than a lot of the other guys though. L Jordon - Should have a big year by all accounts, but it's hard to trust a guy that's never had a starting gig before. I'd take him in the third, but the second is a little too soon for me, especially if it means passing up on a top five WR, Culpepper, or McNabb.
  7. Manning is going to be Gone!

    Yeah, Edge's pattened "run straight ahead for five yards and dive" running style works great when you're between the 20s and no one can stack the box, but it doesn't work very well at the goalline.
  8. More 3rd Pick Stuff...

    Man, either you guys have short memories or you haven't taken Edge in the first round the past two seasons like I have. Here's what I got out of my No. 1 draft pick last year in a standard scoring league (1 point per 10 yards rush/rec, 6 points per rush/rec TD): Week 1: 16 points Week 2: 24 points Week 3: 13 points Week 4: 16 points Week 5: 20 points Week 6: Bye Week 7: 13 points Week 8: 12 points Week 9: 17 points Week 10: 9 points Week 11: 27 points Week 12: 11 points Week 13: 27 points Week 14: 15 points Yes, he's the model of consistency, but he only had three games out of nine where he scored more than 20 points. Maybe I'm being unreasonable, but I expect more monster games out of a Top 10 draft pick. Edit: That should be "three games out of thirteen" not "three games out of nine".
  9. Draft Advise

    The only problem with the 9-12 turn is that there's usually a big dropoff in talent after the top 30 picks. If you're in the 4th or 5th spot, you can take the Tier 2 RB of your choice, then another Tier 2 RB or Top Five WR, and still have a decent shot at having one of the top Top Five WRs or one of the better Tier 3 RBs fall to you in the third round. If you're picking near the end of the draft, by the time your third pick rolls around, unless a couple of people have screwed up, you're left with fourth round talent (the bottom of the Tier 2 WRs and the bottom of the Teir 3 RBs). No matter which player you choose, you're probably not getting great value at that spot unless the player exceeds expectations, because the same level of players will also be on the board when you're fourth round pick comes around. You can have a great draft and win a championship from any position, but given the choice, I would never trade down from a Top 6 pick.
  10. Thoughts on Lee Suggs

    He killed me last last year as well (along with Griffin). As you can see from my sig line, I have him on my team again this year, but the difference is that I got him in the 12th round, not the 5th. As far as I'm concerned, that's about all he's worth until proven otherwise. I realize that Davis is gone, but I have been burned WAY too many times by Browns players to draft any of them as anything other than backups in the final few rounds.
  11. Manning is going to be Gone!

    I would take Duece at that spot too. I've had Edge on my team the past two seasons, and while he'll give you double digit points week in and week out, you'll be lucky if you get one or two monster games out of him the whole season. That kind of consistency is great for a second round pick, but for a first round pick, especially the fouth overall, you want a guy that has the potential to give you at least half a dozen monster games. Duece can do that because he can take it to the house from anywhere on the field and he's the goalline option of choice. A 20 yard run is big deal for Edge and he's one of a plethora of goalline options.
  12. Lamont Jordon Projections?

    I don't disagree, but even as a viable #2, I think it's a mistake to take him earlier than the third round simply because taking him in the second would probably mean passing on one of the top five WRs, and there's no way that I'm going to pass on Moss, Owens, Holt, Harrison, or Chad Johnson for a guy who has yet to prove that he can be a starter in the NFL.
  13. Lamont Jordon Projections?

    This looks about right to me, but only because of the situation he's in. Career backups always look great until they become a full time starter. Once that happens, it usually becomes obvious why they were career backups.
  14. Which of these WR do you like Best

    I've got Colbert as my No. 3 and I'm a lot more comfortable with him than I would be with the other guys you listed. As mentioned before, he's safe. Even on a bad day he'll get you 40 to 70 yards, and now that Moose gone, I think he may see more scores as well. I like like Llyod, but not with a rookie throwing to him, especially when that rookie isn't surrounded by a whole lot of talent.
  15. Tatum Bell...let's discuss

    Personally, I'd rather have Rudi than Bell, McGahee, K. Jones, J. Jones, L. Jordan, S. Jackson, C. Williams, R. Brown, C.Benson, J. Arrington, and all the other guys out there that have yet to start a full year in the NFL. Yeah, half the guys I just mentioned will be studs this year, but the other half will be busts (at least relative to where they're picked). Rudi has already proven that he can get the job done, and that offense is only going to get better.
  16. Taylor's value now?

    For whatever it's worth, I'm a Jax homer and I read that Toefield impressed the coaches while running plays as the No. 1 back in mini-camp. (Yeah, I know...if you had a dime for every time a player impressed the coaches in mini-camp...) Still though, I think Toefield may not be a bad option if Taylor can't go. The last I heard, the Jags were moving Greg Jones to fullback, so unless they sign another veteran, Toefield may be the man. Now you're probably thinking "If Toefield is so great, then why did they pursue Henry?!?" Because it's Henry. The guy's a pro bowl calibre RB, and no one can question his toughness. If you don't have an established starter (or an established starter that can stay healthy) you're always going to try to sign a guy like that, no matter how promising the talent may be on the bench.
  17. Drafts this year: An observation

    I tried something similar to that last year and I wasn't very happy with the results: Edge/Fred Taylor/Gonzo/Griffin/Suggs/Bulger I know that looks ridiculous now, but there wasn't much difference in the perception of Griffin and Suggs at this time last year and the perception of the rookie RBs and first year starters that are going in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year. The reason I took Suggs is that all the Tier 2 WRs (and even a couple of the Tier 3 WRs) were already gone by the fifth round, and I thought he was too good of a value at that spot to pass up even though I had already drafted 3 RBs. (Yeah, I know...not one of my brighter moments.) I ended up with Stallworth as my No. 1 WR. I don't have to tell you how ugly that was. I had to make some trades, so prior to the start of the season I traded Taylor for Hines Ward and shortly after the start of the season, I traded Gonzo for Chad Johnson. Those two trades ended up pretty even, but I would have been a lot better off if I had gone: Edge/Holt or Owens/Gonzo/Griffin/Suggs/Bulger or Edge/Taylor/Gonzo/DJax/Suggs/Bulger In short, if you wait until the fifth round to grab your first WR, odds are, you're going to spend the rest of the draft (and the season) trying to compensate for it. IMHO, it's not worth getting that 3rd RB (which will typically carry the same risk this year that Griffin and Suggs did last year) early if it comes at the expense of having a Tier 3 WR as your top wideout. You can go for 3 RBs in the first five rounds, or you can go for a TE in the first five rounds, but if you try to do both, you're in trouble.
  18. WDIS @ RB?

    Gotta love Fantasy Football. Some weeks you have one primary ball carrier and some weeks you have three...and they're the same guys! This week I have three and all of them have good matchups. It's hard to sit Goings against the Saints, especially since he's the undisputed goalline back, so I think he will be in the starting lineup. I know it sounds ridiculous to bench Edge for O. Smith, but the frustration level with Edge being kept out of the endzone every week is wearing on me, and the Bears rushing defense has been carved up the past two weeks by Edge and Julius Jones. Thoughts?
  19. WDIS @ RB?

    Man, I haven't been paying attention. How did you get Portis? Did you trade Chad Johnson for him straight up?
  20. What is going on in Jacksonville?

    We're a very small market with a very large stadium. That's really all there is too it. I love living in Northern Florida, but in all honesty, now that I know the area as well as I do, I'm shocked that Jacksonville was awarded an NFL franchise. This isn't a city. It's a town. It's a BIG town, but it's still a town.
  21. Ward and the bench?

    I benched Ward and DJax yesterday in favor of McCardell and Branch. None of the four did anything, but at least I saved myself the aggravation of having to deal with another disappointing Sunday courtesy of Ward and DJax. Funny, but the guy I considered to be the worst member of my underachieving little trio, Chad Johnson, has actually picked up his game in recent weeks. I'm glad I played him and benched the other two.
  22. Will you be changing your fantasy attitude?

    I will definitely re-evaluate the way I draft. Every draft I try to stock up on RBs and every draft I end up with crap at RB anyway. Next year I'm going to take the best player available each round, regardless of position.
  23. Will Edge get a score on Turkey Day?

    How could an Edge owner possibly be upset with the 5th best RB in Fantasy Football? Here's how. Below is Edge's ESPN FFL ranking in terms of standard points scored by RBs each each week. Week 1: 14 Week 2: 2 Week 3: 13 Week 4: 11 Week 5: 5 Week 6: Bye Week 7: 15 Week 8: 13 Week 9: 10 Week 10: 26 Week 11: 2 Do the math and figure out how many FFL games you're going to win when your No. 1 draft pick rarely finishes in the Top Five at his position. Yeah, I won in Week 2 and Week 11. I tied in Week 5. I'm 4-6-1. Once again, do the math.
  24. Hines Ward to the bench?

    Yep. He's getting benched for the newly acquired Deion Branch.
  25. Neon Deion's Available, But ....

    If it ain't broke, don't fix it. However, I think you should be prepared for Givens' production to take a serious hit with Branch's return.