BrooklynCrew
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Hmm... Huddle ranks Indy Def as #30 fantasy option this week.... Not sure how to reconcile those two positions... The very low CK rank lept off the page to me.... Given the public beatdown they just took, coming back home.. I see Indy as a bad defense... a big day from CK seems likely.
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18th ranked QB this week? Does Indy have a defense that I'm not aware of?
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Always. If Mathews scores TDs I'll put the gun down. Greene is another story, I owe him a hug.
Shon Greene doesn't really qualify for matchlight status... but this late season outburst is really helping if you stuck with him.
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This is a good place for constantly updated Giants info. Guy's a beat writer:
http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/beat_wr...blog/index.html
He says Nicks was on the bike watching practice today... yesterday he didn't suit up... not much to draw from this yet. I think he will play, but you can check in here for practice reports tomorrow and Saturday
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He's not technically a rookie, but Hardesty is lining up to be the main back in CLE. I don't believe anything they're saying about bringing Hillis back for any kind of real money. I don't believe a word of that. Whether you think Hardesty can make a real impact with all the touches, who knows, we've hardly seen enough yet... but in terms of guys who might have the opportunity, I put him high on the list next to Thomas.
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It depends on your format. He could easily be the feature back next season. I drafted him in a 12 team dynasty league with my 14th round pick this year. I can keep him for a 12th round pick next year. He's a great stash if you're playing a keeper or have bench depth. He's still only looking at the lesser part of a time share unless Hillis gets hurt or implodes over this contract issue.
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We are also saying that if 80% of the top 10 RBs are coming from the RBs drafted in the first 3 to 4 rounds, you are much more likely to get a top 10 RB by drafting the RBs there. Those guys also outscore the later RBs by a much wider margin.
I know... I get the relative value of QB's and all... but this number above "80% of the top 10rbs are drafted in rounds 3-4" is where I think the pitfall is. I think that is changing a LOT. I don't believe that stat is true at all anymore. I think half the top 10 rb's are often drafted in the mid rounds now - 4-8ish... with so many committees and the uptick in passing...
Personally, I don't think I've ever taken a qb in round 1... it burns. "Can't do it". But I'm seeing more and more guys having success by mixing in early top WR's and a top 3-4 QB over the first 4 rounds and then taking a slew of mid round RB's and striking gold on just one of them. This was not really a viable option 10 years ago because you HAD to have 2 of the top ball carriers who were all off the board by middle of round 3.
Jumbo's article last week speaks to some of this discussion:
http://www.thehuddle.com/x11/season/w04/jum.php
I think it's an interesting discussion... at least in terms that the NFL is changing, which probably means that strategies for Fantasy Football should be changing as well.
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You are missing his point entirely.
He is saying it is 'safer' to find a top 10 QB in the later rounds and use the earlier rounds to draft the RBs that have the highest chances of succeeding ...
I'm not missing that point. I'm saying it's wrong. Drafts are changing and top qb's are going earlier. It's not that easy to get a top qb late in the draft anymore. I see people taking qb's earlier and earlier in my leagues, because of all the reasons cited. There are more busts early among rb's than ever before. The theory that it's safer going RB early and QB late is not true. I'm not missing that point, I think it's false and based on theories from 10 years ago.
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So I got an email from The Huddle for this App that will track my teams from up to seven leagues at once. Seems like a pretty cool thing. I read through their FAQ's but couldn't answer this question.
Does it only track my teams scores or will it track my opponents as well? My suspicion is that it only tracks all my teams since I enter my roster, et al. If that's the case, not as cool of an App. Anyone know the answer?
Yeah, I took quick look, but it's all manual entry = pass
My pda can load my league websites pretty well now...
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I believe you misread what I wrote.. or more likely I wrote it poorly.
I agree, the preseason top 10 ranked QBs do end up top 10 more than the RBs. I also can get one of those QBs in the 6th or 7th round (sometimes later) and expect a minimal drop in production compared to the QB I would be taking in the 2nd or 3rd round. The stats have consistently shown this year over year.
The top 10 RBs, while not neccessarily ranked in the top 10, are almost always taken in the first 3, maybe 4 rounds. You are usually lucky to get 1-2 (ala Foster last year) that are drafted much later than this. The drop off in production from the top 10 RBs to those below that is far more significant than at the QB position.
What I am saying is that, based on this, I much prefer to load my FF gun up with as many RB bullets from the stock that is much more likely to be in the top 10 at the position (read, top 3-4 rounds worth of backs) and then load up on 2 (or more) QBs in the 8-12 round range, where I also have a very reasonable expectation of finding a top 10 performer, whose production is generally not that far off from the guys drafted in the top 2-3 rounds when compared to the RBs drafted in the same range.
Now, all of this is not to say that a team can't be succesful going QB early, or going TE early, etc., it's just that from a purely mathematical perspective, your odds of success increase (at least in my opinion based on the statistics I've studied) by targeting the positions and players where you perceive a greater dropoff in production from one pick to the next. Obviously, luck plays a large role in this as one must still draft the right players, but this approach minimizes that (ie, I'll take the RB early where we usually see 8 of the top 10 come from, and I'll take a QB late where we usually see 4 of the top 10 come from, rather than taking a QB early where 6 of the top 10 come from and an RB late where 2 of the top 10 come from).
What you are not factoring is that HALF of the top 10 rb's year over year are NOT drafted in the first two rounds and are not in the preliminary season picks to be top 10 rb's. They actually come from later rounds because of that higher turnover I noted earlier. That means there are far more RB busts in those picks than QB's. So this old notion that it's safer to draft RB's early is simply not true anymore. The stats do not bear that out. If you load up on lots of rb's early, yes, you are more likely to hit a productive one, and you are also more likely to hit a bust.
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As I said many times in the preseason, and will say again as the numbers this year continue to represent the philosophy, I'll load my gun up with as many bullets from the early RBs, as they are much more likely to end up top 10 at their position (a position, I'll remind you, that has the highest scoring disparity between starters in most setups), and I'll take my chances on a late round QB that is generalyl as likely to be in the top 10 as the earlier QBs (in the position that generally has the least scoring disparity amongst starters).
This is false. The data over the last 7 years shows that QB's are FAR FAR more likely to hit their preseason top 10 status than RB's. There is far more fluctuation in the top 10 rb's than top 10 qb's year over year. It's not even close over the better part of the last decade... especially with the uptick in RBBC's around the league. 10 years ago this was not the case. Things have changed. The top 10 wr's are also a bit more reliable than top 10 rb's, but they fluctuate more than qb's, which of late have been far more stable to hit preseason expectations.
This is not an argument for/against the early qb, but the reality is that QB's hit their preseason expectations far more frequently than rbs or wr's. RB variance has grown dramatically over the last decade.
Now some people will simply respond "this is exactly why I need to hoard them and make sure I get a good one"...
You can argue either way. If I have a top 5 pick I'm getting one of the lone backfield RB's who tend to produce... but the 'wait on rb's' approach is far more viable than it used to be... sure there is lots of luck involved, but that's true for anybody. There just happens to be a LOT more rb's getting touches than ever before. This is reality.
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This being my first year that any of my leagues are using a blind bidding waiver system, I am completely lost (no pun intended) on average bids.
I am assuming you have been using blind bidding for a bit in your leagues and have some insight, and from your response, it looks like for highly sought after pick-ups owners spend around 50% on average of their cap and for less sought after players, they may spend about 15%?
I know this is tough to answer since there are probably some outragious (unusual bets) bids and not all bidding is the same, but I really need a starting point. I really can't imagine spending so much on a pick-up in the first round, but if the player is worth it, it might not be a bad idea. I don't see any significant total game changers this week, but with the injury bug snatching so many victims so far, a pick-up or 2 may be a necessity.
I am assuming that after week 1, bids typically come back down to earth after everyone has tested the waters so to speak?
Anyone have some additional insight on this?
Thanks in advance!It really helps to know your league mates on this question. I've been playing several years with my crowd, so I do know tendencies. In my 12 team keeper with a $250 cap, i can see Starks going for anywhere from 30-75$ ... especially for a couple teams with RB needs. A bigger bid wouldn't surprise me. My other leagues won't see bids over $30 (I don't think) on anybody currently available. Kicker's and D's will go for 1-5$ depending on need. But again, knowing your league tendencies really helps. This first time around is a guessing game for your whole league.
Unless there's a big name on your wire, I'd guess the bids are low at first to feel out what people are willing to pay. In one of my leagues, I have a couple 'early big spenders'... and several other 'hoarders', who hang onto their cash for late season shots. I know at least 2 owners who won't bid much of anything in the first 4 games.
I tend to buy early and grab somebody before they skyrocket in price - this is not an exact science.
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All 3 of my leagues are blind bidding now (traditional waivers seems to be going away)... in one league, somebody dropped Starks (no idea why) in the first round of pickups before week 1, so he will be the big waiver spend there. Not sure how much he goes for, but it will be high. The other leagues there doesn't seem to be a 'big' name... other than Cam Newton in a long term keeper format...
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What are people's strategies around FAAB spending? Do you jump on guys with new roles or hot starts and hope to mine that diamond in the rough? Or do you hold tight with your draft and wait for late season position changes?
I tend to spend early and shore up holes right away, hoping to mine gold.
Last year in one of my leagues, a guy spent his entire season's $ on Vick in week 3. He won the league.
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Eh, I do it all the time (RB-RB that is) with good success in my local ten man. Half of the league will spend a 3rd round pick or better to secure a top Quarterback, so I tend to get a lot of value going against the grain. If I were in a league where the first picks went more stock - ie RB till the 7th pick, only one first round Quarterback - I probably would have to change up my strategy, but that hasn't happened yet.
It seems to me that the top Quarterback/top Receiver strategy is very boom or bust - if your mid/late RBs pan out you probably win your league. If they don't, you're in for a lot of teeth gnashing as the year goes on. Personally, I prefer to take the less risky approach.
Actually, most of the studies I've read recently is that the early 'many rbs' approach is far riskier... because a much higher percentage of 'top 20' rb's are busts than top 10 qb's or top 10 wr's even. I guess that's the point. RB - RB over the recent years is MORE risky. It may just feel safer cuz that's the trend historically.
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Where my draft suffered was at QB ... I waited too long at that position. Played the waiting/chicken game and lost.
Well that's the thing, if I'm waiting on RB's, I'm definitely getting a top 6 qb in the first 3 rounds this year.
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I don't lock into position any more, my goal in the first two rounds is to take the top available RB or WR available when it is my turn to pick. A lot depends on where in the draft I fall as to the make up of my first two picks. This year in my local it was WR-WR from the 10 hole in a 12 team draft. So in my particular case I found more value in taking Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald versus taking Mendenhall, Forte or Gore with the 10th pick + a WR like Vincent Jackson.
As for "waiting on RBs" I did just that drafting my first RB in the 5th round - Shonn Greene. By waiting I was able to cobble together these RBs - Greene, DeAngelo Williams (6th), Mark Ingram (8th), Addai (10th), Daniel Thomas (11th), Starks (12th). Drafted 6 RBs so I have more opportunity to "get lucky".
I think this is a great strategy this year...
And I guess my point is that I don't think "Gore" is safe at all. In fact, I can put like 20 or so RB's in tier 2 and have no idea who scores the most points. On the other hand, I think Brees or Rivers is pretty safe early... comparably.
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I would add that if you have a shot at the top 4-5 solo RB's who get 200+ touches, it's wise to take one, since there aren't many of them... but outside of those draft spots, I think it's ok to be a lot more flexible than in the past when you really needed to collect a lot of rb's early.
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There's a new article from DMD called "Planning your first two picks" that might go along with what you're saying...
I normally like to get out of the first two rounds with a great RB/WR combo, regardless of which I draft first, unless there is tremendous value at a particular postion or scoring/lineup requirements necessitate that I go in a particular direction.
This is a yearly article from DMD... and the general slant is you need 2 rb's in your first 3 picks to succeed (in some fashion). I no longer agree as I think football (and hence fantasy football) is changing from 10 years ago... The rbbc and emphasis on the passing game means you can find more rb value later in your drafts than ever before. I would argue that the winners in recent years (in my leagues) avoid 2 rb's in the first 3 rounds and hope to strike rb gold later in tandem with their strong qb/wr slants... I want a top tier qb/wr combo this year more than ever. Just my thoughts though, I know 2 rb's early is a fairly prevalent mindset.
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I know The Huddle is a bit old-school in terms of advice and 'get yur rb's early' etc... I no longer subscribe to this theory entirely... depending on the season of course.
I find a lot less turnover in the top 6 qb's year to year (others have done this math, but it's true). The turnover in the top 20 rb's and wr's is far more extreme. That is to say, at the end of the year, you will find nearly half the top 20 rb's and wr's were not drafted as the top 20 rb's and wr's... while the top 10 qb's are pretty close to the actual rankings in most seasons... generally speaking with exceptions.
I see the winners of my leagues as the guys who get the big qb coupled with a big wr or rb... and then get lucky in the mid-late draft by striking gold (or mining the wire).
The duo RB anchor teams haven't won many championships in my leagues over the last 3-5 seasons...
Do people find they have strayed from 'rb-rb' more in recent years?
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Just caught this and got TobyG into my lineup... I need 49 yards from that spot to make the finals. Holding my breath now.
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Not watching... is Greg Jennings even getting targeted? I need SOMETHING from him tonight and this is killing me.
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Everything is pointing to Nicks playing now... we'll see.
Thanks in advance!
Huddle Hates Kaep eh?
in Fantasy Football
Posted
Can't say I follow how there's 15 names I'd rather have than him starting this week... there's about 10 on the Huddle list that there's no way I start over him, virtually ever, and definitely not this week... Indy can score... and their D is bad. I don't see a ton of Gore ever, given what Gore is now. We shall see, but I'm in the 'major disagreement' camp with that ranking... not really alone either, scanning just about everywhere else on these here interwebs... just wondering I guess.