2nd Pick...national perspective?

[ryansbucs14]

I got the 2nd pick overall and all I see everywhere is Shaun Alexander, Shaun Alexander easy pick. Being from Seattle and watching him it's frustrating the way he jogs in the back field, I know he gets a lot of td's and I'm sure anything inside the 5 yard line Holmgren will feed him the ball this year more than ever but is this the overall consensus from the national view?

 

I was thinking of Priest if he's healthy in mini camp due to his explosiveness but I know he's more of a risk I guess. I guess I'm just looking for any other views on this one or is it a slam dunk go by the jersey of Shaun today?

 

Thanks

[DelmarJintsFan]

I think your top pick has to be a slam dunk. Alexander is just that. Should have led the league in yards last year, is consistently 16+ TDs a year, is playing for a big contract, and is durable (those 2 games last year notwithstanding). He's a much lesser risk than Holmes. Take the lock and gamble elsewhere.

[Clubfoothead]

If I have the #2 in any draft the pick will be Alexander. I have rounds 2 through whatever to overthink.

[cliaz]

Plus Holmes is old, gets hurt.

 

If this is a keeper league then it's a no brianer, Alexander all the way.

[ryansbucs14]

Yeah I think you guys are right. Take Alexander and don't look back. Thanks for the reassurance.

[yo mama]

Yeah I think you guys are right. Take Alexander and don't look back. Thanks for the reassurance.

 

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However, if you are somehow morally opposed to drafting Alexander, you can always draft and trade him, or trade that 2nd pick. You should obviously demand a premium, but you might just get it.

Edited August 4, 2005 by yo mama

[redcoltfan]

Are passing TD's worth 6?

 

Go with #18 and don't look back.

 

Manning should throw around 40 TD's this year.

 

IF passing TD's are 4....I have seen ALEX #2 everywhere.

 

Will Holmgren use SA like he should?

 

Then take Alexander...

 

Good luck........

[SLGRAF]

"Are passing TD's worth 6? Go with #18 and don't look back. Manning should throw around 40 TD's this year."

 

 

First, if passing TDs are worth 6 pts, ALL QBs get 6 pts, not just Manning. It benefits the QB position relative to RBs and WRs, not just Manning. Second, I doubt Manning gets 40+ TDs this year. Look back at 1985, the year after Marino threw 48 TDs. His TDs the following year took a major drop, then he rebounded in 1986. Defenses will be keying on Manning big-time. I'd take Alexander at #2 regardless of the scoring system.

[yo mama]

Second, I doubt Manning gets 40+ TDs this year.  Look back at 1985, the year after Marino threw 48 TDs.  His TDs the following year took a major drop, then he rebounded in 1986.  ...  Defenses will be keying on Manning big-time. 

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That's certainly possible, but I doubt it. You seriously think defenses didn't know who Manning was last year? That's hilarious. Ya, all of the sudden, he's on every DC's radar screen and they'll be game planning against him this year. Dude, they can't key in on Manning all that much, or Edge kills them. And with 3 solid WRs and a killer pass-catching TE, you can't double cover all of them. That means the pass rush suffers, due to the added nickle and dime defenses. (Which probalby explains why Manning had the 2nd best sack per pass attempt ratio last year, at 2.5 (13 sacks in 510 pass attempts)).

 

And you do realize that Manning's passing schedule is substantially easier this year, relative to last year, don't you?

Edited August 4, 2005 by yo mama

[SLGRAF]

"Dude, they can't key in on Manning all that much, or Edge kills them"

 

 

That is what will happen. Defenses will key on stopping the pass more, and, Edge's numbers will improve significantly as a result. I think Manning is an awesome QB, but, I think last year was one where the stars aligned perfectly for him. What are the chances that everyone around him will stay healthy again?

QBs like Erik Kramer and Scott Mitchell had big statistical years during the 1990's, but, they rarely follow them up, because this year is always different than last year. I see Manning throwing 36-38 TDs, which is more than he threw in the years prior to last year, but, takes into account that lightning rarely strikes twice. And, at 36-38 passing TDs, he is worth a top-5 fantasy pick, but, not worth as much as LT2 or Alexander, IMO.

[yo mama]

he is worth a top-5 fantasy pick, but, not worth as much as LT2 or Alexander, IMO.

 

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I'd agree with that.

[piratesownninjas]

Alexander is the definition of an elite consistant player... You know for sure that your going to get 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns... Can't ask for more than that.

[canman1104]

Some good posts on this question. Here is my 2 cents. You have the #2 pick. If Manning is at #2 how can you pass him up? Eaiser schedule then last year, if they try to stop Manning then Edge runs wild. I see Manning with 45-50 TD's this year. If your league gives 6pts for a TD pass, then Manning is a no brainer pick. NO RB can even come close to the fantasy point production Manning can give you.

[SLGRAF]

"NO RB can even come close to the fantasy point production Manning can give you."

 

 

Comparing Manning to RBs is completely irrelevant. What IS relevant is comparing his expected output to that of other QBs, and, the expected output of LT2/Alexander to that of other RBs. If you do that, I think LT2 and Alexander get the nod over Manning. If total fantasy points mattered, then Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez would not be drafted until the 8th round.

 

Also, I don't see projecting Manning to throw 45-50 TDs this year when he only averaged 28 TD passes from 1998-2003? If last year is all that matters, then I guess I should draft NFL rushing champ Curtis Martin in the first round, correct?

[ryansbucs14]

Sorry not to answer your questions earlier.

 

No passing td's are worth 4 pts as rushing/receiving are worth 6 pts.

 

This is not a keeper league.

 

I don't think I could ever take a qb in the first round, that's just me though. I'm a rb guy 1st and 2nd and sometimes even 3rd round.

 

Manning is tempting if I was around 5 - 7 I think

[Roo]

"NO RB can even come close to the fantasy point production Manning can give you."

 

Comparing Manning to RBs is completely irrelevant.  What IS relevant is comparing his expected output to that of other QBs, and, the expected output of LT2/Alexander to that of other RBs.  If you do that, I think LT2 and Alexander get the nod over Manning. 

 

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While I agree with your logic, let me hit on a couple other angles.

 

1. The output of Manning compared to other QBs IS huge. I am unsure why people are using that argument this year. We're talking 40 TDs versus 25-30 at best, and far more yards. If you start diving in to QBs like Brees and Palmer, you start upping the risk factor and we're talking HALF the number of TDs. The drop from tier 1 QBs to tier 2, is pretty big.

 

2. This year, in some situations, you can land Manning and Rudi (or another RB at that level). So the dropoff at RB is not as significant as in other years. Who's to say Rudi can't run for 1400 and 12TDs? This year, I'd personally rather have Manning and a tier 2 RB, over Alexander and a tier 2 QB.

Edited August 4, 2005 by Roo

[SLGRAF]

"The output of Manning compared to other QBs IS huge"

 

 

I agree there is a big gap. And, that is shown by the fact that Manning is a consensus top-5 pick, while in many leagues, neither Culpepper nor McNabb are being drafted until the 3rd round. But, the fact that LT2 and Alexander are a step above the other RBs, and, that in leagues where you start only one QB, RB is a much scarcer position for fantasy purposes than QB, I cannot see drafting Manning in the top-2. And again, assuming 40 TD passes for Manning is risky, because last season was a huge jump in terms of TD passes compared with the rest of his career.