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Policy's annual Lions report


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Okay, so this is the time of year when I report to the rest of the Huddle on the goings-on in Lionsland--and 90% of you yawn or laugh at me. I haven't let it stop me yet and I'm not ever going to. The way this works, for those unfamiliar, is I break down the Lions position by position, and sum up potential fantasy value along the way. This is long, detailed, and unavoidably colored by my own personal raging homer bias. I absolutely welcome questions, comments, suggestions, and open mocking!

 

EDIT--now includes defense!

 

Let's get to it:

 

QUARTERBACK: This is the big question mark this year. Most of the NFL sees this as starter Joey Harrington's year to shape up or ship out. Most Lions fans have long since decided on "ship out", and you can expect raucous boos to follow Harrington around unless/until the Lions start winning. I think Harrington does have what it takes to be a very good starter in the NFL, but he's *too* smart, too cerebral. He overthinks. It causes him to be slow and indecisive on his reads, and he loses confidence and gets frustrated quickly. The ignorant boo-bird fans are not doing anything to help this. Additionally, the rest of the team has no confidence in him. Everyone in the organization knows this is the year, this is the start, this is when the Lions break out of their funk and win games. However, most of the team sees Joey as the icon of the "horrible" era, and view him as part of the losing days they need to put behind them, not the winning days ahead. Fortunately for him and the team, he will not be asked to win games anymore. The bread and butter of this team will be the running game, and he should have plenty of surehanded talent around him to elevate his play. They don't need Joey to be a hero, just to not be a goat. If he is as improved this year over last year as he was last year over the year before, he will be more than good enough to get this team to the playoffs.

 

The word out of camp is that Harrington looks much much sharper in practice, but that's been the word out of camp every year. In the open practice, Harrington looked great in the red zone drills, but iffy in WR/DB drills and the scrimmage. Honestly, it was hard to tell if it was just him, or the WRs weren't getting open, or the DBs were just playing that well. One very exciting thing was Harrington's newfound use of his legs. In the past, Harrington would decide no one was open, then force it to his checkdown. Now, when no one is open, he leaves the pocket to buy time, and if the space is there, he tucks and runs. If he can effectively add this to his game, it could be huge for the Lions offense.

 

Now, there is a contingent of fans who are rooting for backup Jeff Garcia to take over the starter's job, but word out of camp is that his arm strength is not there. From my observations at the open practice, Garcia still gets good zip on the short routes, but his deep balls are high floaters that take forever to get there--in other words, easy pickings for DBs. If Harrington goes down, Garcia will be an adequate fill-in. A funny irony is that Garica looked far more like a pocket passer than Joey on that day. Garica makes his decisions much more quickly and delivers the ball--for better or for worse. Harrington refuses to make the big mistake, but Garcia refuses to settle for the dump-off or the scramble. Maybe he's just that intent on proving he still has it?

 

Third-stringer Dan Orlovsky, out of UConn, looked okay in what little practice time he got. He's a good-sized pocket passer, definitely a project. Could be a Kelly Holcomb-type, a career backup, who gets a few years in the sun as a sometime-starter.

 

Fantasy value: Harrington has tremendous upside but is a very low chance to hit it. Garcia poses little real threat to Harrington's starter job, and if he does end up the starter (for whatever reason) he won't put up numbers. Orlovsky will not see the field this year, and unless he really wows 'em in practice this year, probably won't get a crack at starting anytime soon. The only QB with any fantasy value is Harrington, and that's a swing for the fences. If your starters' bye week is an easy matchup, and you're looking for a risk/reward man in that spot, Harrington could certianly be that man.

 

RUNNING BACKS: Second-year starter Kevin Jones is going to run for at least 1700 yards and 10 TDs. He's a monster, with speed, power, vision, and moves. He's got a great OL and FB in front of him, and he never, ever, ever gives up on a play. Backing him up is third-year guy Artose Pinner, a straight-ahead guy with power and a little bit of wiggle as well. Pinner is young and the Lions like him, but Jones is 100% The Man in this offense, and barring injury he's what will make the whole thing go this year. Behind Pinner is Jamel White, a multidimensional back who can give the offense a pass catcher out of the backfield if (God forbid) Jones goes down. Eternal rock of granite Cory Schlesinger will again blast open holes for Jones, but he is aging and the Lions are looking for his replacement. Paul Smith has been off and on the roster for a few of years, but he's more of a runner and reciever than a replacement for Sledge. Rookie Will Matthews, however, is a punshing blocker with upside, and he and Smith will battle for a roster spot.

 

Fantasy impact: Kevin Jones will be a Top 5 stud. If you have him, then Pinner is the primary backup. I don't see any of the others making any kind of impact.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS: This is the position everyone is going gaa-gaa over, and with good reason. Charles Rogers and Roy Williams will be the top two wideouts, and will make an explosive pair. Chuck, of course, is the big question mark, as his collarbone has fractured twice in the past two years. The first time, they let it heal naturally. This time, they riveted and plated the snot out of it, and are as confident as they can be that he is 100% and will last the season. He's added about ten pounds of muscle, and looks as fast and explosive as ever. He and Dre Bly have had a great time working against each other. Roy Williams looks fully recovered from the ankle injury, and caught a couple of great passes during the open practice. Those two will be an incredible combo, very fast, with Chuck the faster, and very strong, with Roy the stronger. Anyone who saw the Lions-Eagles game last year will know just what Roy is capabale of. There have been conflicitng reports, but from what I understand, the Lions will mainly use a two-WR set, with Pollard and Schlesinger in. Rogers and Williams will play any of the four WR positions, flip-flopping and rotating to keep fresh and create mismatches. Rookie Mike Willams (already known as BMW--Big Mike Williams--to many Lions fans) is also going to learn all four receiver positions, and be slowly rotated into the offense. Veteran Kevin Johnson is probably the most underrated FA acquisition the Lions made this year, he has been both a mentor and a friend to all the young wideouts, and will create mismatches. He, too, will be used from any of the four WR spots. Return specialist Eddie Drummond returns as the sixth WR who will almost certainly never catch a ball in the regular seaon, leaving one roster spot left for either David Kircus or Scottie Vines[/b]. "Circus" Kircus is a local boy and a fan favorite, but Vines has been consistently outplaying him in practice, and looked better when both were on the field in the regular season last year. The fact that both Kircus and Vines were on the field at the same time last year should give you an idea of A) how terrible the Lions' wideouts have been, and :D how much better they will be this year, even if the injury bug bites again.

 

Fantasy impact: Rogers and Roy Williams will be the primary targets, catch most of the balls, and get most of the TDs as well. Mike Williams and Marcus Pollard will undoubtedly get red zone looks, but on the whole expect the top two guys to see most of the fantasy love. Basically, look for 50-70 receptions, 1000-1300 yards, and 7-10 TDs from both of the top two, and other than that it's a total crapshoot. There will be tremendous value here in all fantasy leagues, but keeper leagues most of all. If you're asking me "which one will do the best" my answer is "Chuck or Roy", and anyone who tells you any different is talking out of their butt. Look for all the Lions WRs to slide, and as long as you don't expect top ten production from any of them, you won't be disappointed. I'm not saying that that's not a possiblity, but frankly with these QBs, so many targets, and the run-first mentality, I just don't see that happening.

 

TIGHT ENDS: Free agent acquisition Marcus Pollard is the starter, and though he may be past his prime, he's much better than Joey has ever had to throw to before. Look for big contributions on third downs and in the red zone, and for the consistent pair of hands to boost Joey's confidence. Casey Fitszimmons returns, but he hasn't flashed much more of that promise he showed his rookie year. I'm not sure he'll ever be a regular contributor, but he will be the #2 TE. The race for #3 TE will come down to veteran Leonard Stephens or rookie (out of MSU) Jason Randall. Stephens provides seasoned hands, but Randall is a 280-pounder who can push the pile at the line and ramble for extra yards. Randall's had a great camp, so I expect they'll take him if they do carry a third TE.

 

Fantasy Impact: Pollard is one of the few TEs you can count on for production every year, but the rise of the three-headed monster in Indy froze him our of some of the love. This year, expect Pollard to produce a little more than the past couple seasons--but he's past the stage of his career where he's going to putup WR-like numbers. None of the others should be on your fantasy team unless you are related to them.

 

OFFENSIVE LINE: Probably the most improved unit. Steady LT Jeff Backus returns, for what may be his last season as a Lion. Smart and tough, he does very well in the run game and pass protection, but is not a shutdown 'bookend' tackle, and isn't athletic enough to stop elite edge rushers. On the whole he's solid, but unspectacular. New left guard Rick Demulling is an excellent younger veteran with experience, athleticism, and techinque. He's fit very well into the Lions' unit, and together with the rejuventated (e.g., 40 pounds lighter) Damien Woody, form one of the best guard combos in the game. Returning C Dominic Raiola is still more potential than reality at this point, but he's Joey Harrington's closest friend on the team, and is good in pass protection. He lacks the strength to get much push in the run game, though. Last year's sixth-rounder, Kelly Butler has the inside track on the RT job vacated by Stockar McDonald's. Butler is big and strong and full of potential, but the Lions are worried that he'll have trouble once the action is live--he's never taken a regular season snap. If Butler can't handle it, they'll probably sign FA Scott Gragg (ex-SF) to take over the starting spot. The 'swing' T/G bacukp is veteran Kyle Kosier (ex-SF as well), and big young Victor Rogers will be the backup at RT. There will be a battle for the backup guard spot, but I think young Tyrone Hopson will beat out crusty vet David Loverne.

 

Fantasy impact: Obviously you don't draft O-lines, but this unit is drastically improved by addition (DeMulling) and subtraction (about 400 pounds' worth of Stocker McHolding and Damien Woody's beer gut). Woody says he was stealing from the team by being so out-of-shape last year, and has dedicated himself to being "the best guard in football". DeMulling looks great and completes the OL. On the whole, I think this is a great group that's better than it has been since '91. Together with Schlesinger they should be great in the run game, especially pulling to either side. The pass game should be even better, especially on the interior. If this unit can come together--and if Raiola steps it up--it will be one of the better lines in the game.

 

 

OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW: The Lions offense has as much youth, speed, and talent at the skill positions as any team in the league, if not more. Kevin Jones is a lock to be a top five back, and once defenses respect that run game, the deep passing game should (finally) open up. If the WRs can finally stay healthy, and give Joey reliable open targets, the Lions offense is limited only by Joey's execution and the imagination. If Joey is as good this year as he was last year, this is an offense that will allow the Lions get to the playoffs. If he's improved as much over last year as he over the year before, this offense should carry the Lions to the NFC North title.

 

DEFENSIVE LINE: This is the strongest unit of the team. Leading the charge is moster tackle Shaun Rogers, who was signed to a big fat contract extension during the season last year. He's a big, strong, athletic monster who is nearly unblockable. He can run-stop and rush the passer as well as just about anybody. Next to him has been Dan 'Big Daddy' Wilkinson, who has been a great veteran compliment to the youthful star--but Wilkinson is finally fading, and the Lions are looking towards the youth movement. Young veteran Marcus Bell was one of the lowest profile, best-value FAs available this year. The "old Lions" would have let this guy get away from them, but instead they re-signed him, and that could be the difference between being thin at tackle and being stacked there. Bell is big, and VERY strong, and he excels in run support. He and Rogers as a duo are pretty fearsome, and you will see that combination on run downs. "Super Agent" featured rookie Shaun Cody will see time at tackle on passing downs, and they're hoping that he and Rogers together will be able to put crazy pressure on the QB up the middle. Cody might theoretically see time at end, too, but I don't think so. They view him as a pass-rushing tackle, rather than a run-stopping end. I didn't get to see much of him at the open practice, and the OL and DL were only running at about 80% of 'full speed' anyway, so it was really hard to tell how effective he might be. At the right end spot, Michigan alum James Hall comes off an eleven-sack season. He's not blazing fast, but he's got just enough speed, strength, smarts, and technique to get at the QB. It doesn't hurt to have Rogers commanding double-teams on every play, either. At the left end spot, Cory Redding takes over the starter's spot. Redding and Rogers started at Texas together as the tackles, but the Lions converted him Redding to left end. Not surprisingly, he's strong and great in run support, and he's getting better at rushing the passer. He'll never have elite burst, though, and he will probably be spelled on ovbious passing downs by Kalimba Edwards. Edwards, best known to Lions fans as "not Clinton Portis", had a monster rookie year three seasons ago where he racked up 9 sacks in (IIRC) 4 starts, including a game where hunted down Mike Vick like a dog. Since then it's been a string of groin injuries, and he may never return to the form he flashed his rookie season. Too bad. Behind them, Jared DeVries will back up both ends. He's a very hardworking roleplayer, who certainly won't ever start, but he's very valuable in his role. Finally, the rookie Bill Swancutt. He has a hellacious motor, but he's very undersized and will have to make a big impact on special teams in order to make the roster.

 

LINEBACKERS: The Lions have a plethora of young, athletic linebackers, to the point that they aren't sure what to do with them all. Champ Bailey's little brother Boss Bailey returns to the strong side. Tall, amazingly fast, and incredibly athetic, Boss reminds me of a slightly smaller, slightly faster Derrick Brooks. A knee injury sidelined him for all of last year, and they've been holding him out of one practice a day during two a days just to be safe. He is supposed to be 100%, and is running and hitting at full speed, they're just holding him back from full practices. The man who manned the strong side for all 16 games last year, Tedy Lehman, will have an interesting role this year. They'd love to have him take the starting job away from stalwart run-stopper Earl Holmes, but Holmes is still too good to just bench. Fast, athletic James Davis has been very effective on the weak side, so he will probably start there. Even-faster speedster Alex Lewis will join Bailey to form the nickel 'backer pair. Lehman will probably see a starter's worth of snaps at all three LB positions, but the MLB job is there for the taking if he earns it. He's tough, smart, and fast, he just needs to add some bulk and he'll be a machine.

 

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Probably the biggest addition to this years' team is SS Kenoy Kennedy. He's a fast player who loves to hit. He's certianly not a complete player, but the swagger and the pop he brings are exactly what this defense needed. The safties have been an absolute joke for the past few years, and many a first down was gained by opponent RBs bowling over the aging veteran tackling dummies like the backup SS, Bracy Walker. At the free safety spot, Torry Holt's little brother Terrence Holt steps into the starter's role. Terrence hasn't gotten much playing time at this point, but he's made the most of what little time he's had, racking up three picks in his rookie year (2003). He's instinctive, agile, likes to hit and has great awareness, but lacks the deep pure speed that would make him a monster. Millen and the fans love him anyway, and everyone has high hopes that Holt can make a big impact this year. Backing him up will be R.W. McQuarters, who has "GAME BREAKER" tattooed across his shoulder blades. Mr. McQuarters must be a master of sarcastic humor. At the corners, Pro Bowler Dre' Bly locks down one side, and the Lions hope last year's FA acquisition Fernando Bryant can get healthy and live up to his billing on the other side. From there, Andre Goodman will battle McQuarters for the nickel back role, and blazing fast rookie Stanley Wilson will take the last remaining roster spot. Wilson has shown a lot in camp, and apparently Millen is giddy over his potential. He could be the nickel back by year's end if he continues to practice well. If Terry Holt is as good as the fans think he is, and Bryant can regain the form he showed for years in Jacksonville, the secondary could be one of the best in the game. If not . . . well, it still has to be better than last years' unit.

 

DEFENSIVE OVERVIEW: The Lions defense is also full of youth and speed, but there are more question marks than on offense. The Lions have about eleven players they'd like to be reglar contributors in the front seven, and that means lots of rotation, lots of different looks, and fresher legs in the fourth quarter. However, it also means instability--not having clear-cut starters and roles is going to be wierd for the players and the fans. I'm hoping guys like Lehman step up during training camp. The defense was not as bad as the stats made it look last year; the offense regularly hung the defense out to dry, especially in the fourth quarter. If Kennedy can make a big impact and Bryant can play up to his contract, the Lions will probably have the best defense in the division.

 

Overall, the Lions are SO much deeper than they've been since their only playoff win (1991). The only real question marks are at QB, DB, and Chuck Rogers' shoulder. Every other position is either rock-solid across the board, or there is enough youth, depth, and talent to fill any holes. IMO they are neck-and-neck with the Vikings in terms of on-paper talent, and something will have to go seriously wrong for them not to make a run at the division title. In fact, if they don't make the playoffs, Mariucci will almost certainly be on the hot seat.

 

Peace

policy

 

Peace

policy

Edited by policyvote
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Great job as always Policy! :D

 

We already do a team correspondant for the IDP forum. Maybe we should start one here in the main forum for all the homers...

Edited by spain
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The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down

Of the big lake they called 'Gitche Gumee'

The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead

When the skies of November turn gloomy

With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more

Than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty.

That good ship and true was a bone to be chewed

When the gales of November came early.

 

The ship was the pride of the American side

Coming back from some mill in Wisconsin

As the big freighters go, it was bigger than most

With a crew and good captain well seasoned

Concluding some terms with a couple of steel firms

When they left fully loaded for Cleveland

And later that night when the ship's bell rang

Could it be the north wind they'd been feelin'?

The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound

And a wave broke over the railing

And every man knew, as the captain did too,

T'was the witch of November come stealin'.

The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait

When the Gales of November came slashin'.

When afternoon came it was freezin' rain

In the face of a hurricane west wind.

 

When suppertime came, the old cook came on deck sayin'.

Fellas, it's too rough to feed ya.

At Seven P.M. a main hatchway caved in, he said

Fellas, it's been good t'know ya

The captain wired in he had water comin' in

And the good ship and crew was in peril.

And later that night when his lights went outta sight

Came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

 

Does any one know where the love of God goes

When the waves turn the minutes to hours?

The searches all say they'd have made Whitefish Bay

If they'd put fifteen more miles behind her.

They might have split up or they might have capsized;

May have broke deep and took water.

And all that remains is the faces and the names

Of the wives and the sons and the daughters.

 

Lake Huron rolls, Superior sings

In the rooms of her ice-water mansion.

Old Michigan steams like a young man's dreams;

The islands and bays are for sportsmen.

And farther below Lake Ontario

Takes in what Lake Erie can send her,

And the iron boats go as the mariners all know

With the Gales of November remembered.

 

In a musty old hall in Detroit they prayed,

In the Maritime Sailors' Cathedral.

The church bell chimed till it rang twenty-nine times

For each man on the Edmund Fitzgerald.

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down

Of the big lake they call 'Gitche Gumee'.

Superior, they said, never gives up her dead

When the gales of November come early!

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Thanks for the time and effort. Great info. :D

 

Here's my take on my team, the 9ers.

 

They suck....draft Barlow as your #3 RB only.

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Thanks for the time and effort.  Great info.  :D

 

Here's my take on my team, the 9ers.

 

They suck....draft Barlow as your #3 RB only.

 

916911[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

3rd RB?...don't give such horrible info :D ...I still like Lloyd as a 5th WR...I'd take Barlow if he's there when I'm taking a 4th or 5th RB...

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3rd RB?...don't give such horrible info  :D ...I still like Lloyd as a 5th WR...I'd take Barlow if he's there when I'm taking a 4th or 5th RB...

 

916915[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I cant believe Im about to argue this point..... :D

Barlow is definatley a decent #3 RB - he is a starter that will get 95% of the carries.....he will be servicable for a couple of games to fill in on your by weeks...of course if you are in an 8 man league then he could be a #4 RB.

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Well done Policy, as always. We'll take it with a slight grain of salt to offset your homerism. :D

 

Question for you: How concerned are you about Rogers and Roy Williams' health and durability? I mean, it has to be a major concern, no? If these guys go down, the Lions are gonna be in deep doo-doo, and fast.

Edited by Hugh 0ne
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Thanks for the time and effort.  Great info.  :D

 

Here's my take on my team, the 9ers.

 

They suck....draft Barlow as your #3 RB only.

 

916911[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I think Barlow could be much better this year. Yea, you're taking a chance with him as a starter, but you could benefit from having him on your roster.

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If Rogers is anything close to Roy, then he will be the steal of the draft this year. I don't see him going very early in drafts. The injuries have been a fluke, imo. Actually I would prefer the collarbone to be 125% because 100% hasn't been very good for him. :D

 

Thanks for the info.

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Well done Policy, as always. We'll take it with a slight grain of salt to offset your homerism. :D

 

Question for you: How concerned are you about Rogers and Roy Williams' health and durability? I mean, it has to be a major concern, no? If these guys go down, the Lions are gonna be in deep doo-doo, and fast.

 

916997[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Well, obviously, Rogers' collarbone is a huge concern. The Lions said that their offseason preparation assumed that Rogers will not play a down--simply because at this point, who knows what will happen? That's why the drafting of Mike Williams and the signing of Kevin Johnson--even if Rogers goes down, then you're looking at Roy, BMW, and Kevin Johnson as your top three, with Pollard as an additional target. Roy's ankle, AFIAK, was never big deal, it just needed a little R/R it couldn't get during the season last year.

 

As I said, the absolute worst-case scenario is that the Lions will have to rely on Vines or Kircus to contribute as a third temporarily . . . and again, since both of those guys started at times last year, that's a big improvement.

 

Peace

policy

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Great job as always Policy! :D

 

916832[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

To everyone who's said thanks . . . thanks! I work hard on these, and I always try to present as "fair and balanced" a view of my Lions as I can muster.

 

You know it's a big step forward for the Lions when my report contains so few instances of the word "if". I mean, these used to say "IF Charlie Batch can get his confidence back, IF James Stewart can stay on the field for 16 games, IF Johnny Morton can beat a double team, IF the Lions can put the same two cornerbacks on the field for a few straight games . . . THEN they might go 8-8."

 

Peace

policy

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To everyone who's said thanks . . . thanks!  I work hard on these, and I always try to present as "fair and balanced" a view of my Lions as I can muster.

 

You know it's a big step forward for the Lions when my report contains so few instances of the word "if".  I mean, these used to say "IF Charlie Batch can get his confidence back, IF James Stewart can stay on the field for 16 games, IF Johnny Morton can beat a double team, IF the Lions can put the same two cornerbacks on the field for a few straight games . . . THEN they might go 8-8."

 

Peace

policy

 

917158[/snapback]

 

 

 

if .. then .. if .. then

 

u a programmer?

 

great job!

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I should be a happy fan this year. There appears to be enough talent on offense that even Harrington shouldn't be able to hold this team back. And even a marginal improvement on the offensive side of the ball should translate to big things on the defensive side, as the Lions have talent there. They were just on the field way, way too much last year, with no rest after the three-an-outs that the offense was producing.

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Behind Pinner is Jamel White, a multidimensional back who can give the offense a pass catcher out of the backfield if (God forbid) Jones goes down.

 

I don't think Jamel White is going to make the team. It's going to be Shawn Bryson as the #3 back, not that I think it should be.

 

He's added about ten pounds of muscle, and looks as fast and explosive as ever.

 

 

From what I understand, he's actually lost some weight this year, he's down to around 210 lbs. But your right in that he has shown better speed this year. Chuck still seems to have a concentration problem, as he dropped a TD in the practice and only put one arm up for another pass that he could have caught with 2 hands.

 

 

leaving one roster spot left for either David Kircus or Scottie Vines[/b].  "Circus" Kircus is a local boy and a fan favorite, but Vines has been consistently outplaying him in practice, and looked better when both were on the field in the regular season last year.

 

 

Kircus won't make the team, he's had his chances and is no longer elible for the practice squad.

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I don't think Jamel White is going to make the team. It's going to be Shawn Bryson as the #3 back, not that I think it should be.

From what I understand, he's actually lost some weight this year, he's down to around 210 lbs.  But your right in that he has shown better speed this year. Chuck still seems to have a concentration problem, as he dropped a TD in the practice and only put one arm up for another pass that he could have caught with 2 hands.

Kircus won't make the team, he's had his chances and is no longer elible for the practice squad.

 

917885[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Chuck gained weight this offseason. I don't know how you figure he "lost weight" and got to 210, because he needed to gain at ten pounds to hit 210. :doah: If you think Charles Rogers has ever weighed anything close to 220 you're out of your mind.

 

Jamel White is hurt at the moment, but he has at least as good of a chance to make it out of TC as Bryson does, IMO.

 

Kircus is at least in the mix for that fifth slot. As I said, Vines looked better last year and looks better this year, I expect Vines to get the spot.

 

Peace

policy

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