TecmoBeast Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 Who here drafts on their gut? I've only been doing fantasy football for 5 strong years. I ain't won crizap. It's become apparent to me that you need to know more than to draft so-and-so who's drafted usually higher. You need make your own conclusions as to who's going to have a super year. You need 1 or 2 super sleeper positions you can pick really late. You need to know who's going to produce. Forget the experts. I turn to Ahman Green who was a staple last few years. Not even on the frickin radar this year!!! It changes every year folks! You draft LT #1 and Alexander #2 when reality it can very much be 2 different people who score 1 and 2. You need expose your balls! Last year was Antonio Gates, Drew Bennett, Javon Walker. These sneaky little picks made a team into a contender. These are the people that have a hunch and have a chance of winning it. I had a guy in my league draft Antonio Gates in the 8th round. I said, "Who is Antonio Gates?". He didn't win it, but he did make the playoffs. And that's all you can ask for in this luck-filled game. So who here does the gut thing? Go out on a limb? I'm drunk and stupid right now, but fantasy football is played out like puppets right now. who's got the sleepers lined up this year. If you really know your stufff, you'd draft Kevin Jones before Alexander. You'd draft Lamont Jordan before Edjerrin James. But it's like the top 10 are lined up like what your're supposed to do. And the top-scorers next year will look nothing like it. I'm done blabblin my drunken self. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RILETT Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 Who here drafts on their gut? I've only been doing fantasy football for 5 strong years. I ain't won crizap. It's become apparent to me that you need to know more than to draft so-and-so who's drafted usually higher. You need make your own conclusions as to who's going to have a super year. You need 1 or 2 super sleeper positions you can pick really late. You need to know who's going to produce. Forget the experts. I turn to Ahman Green who was a staple last few years. Not even on the frickin radar this year!!! It changes every year folks! You draft LT #1 and Alexander #2 when reality it can very much be 2 different people who score 1 and 2. You need expose your balls! Last year was Antonio Gates, Drew Bennett, Javon Walker. These sneaky little picks made a team into a contender. These are the people that have a hunch and have a chance of winning it. I had a guy in my league draft Antonio Gates in the 8th round. I said, "Who is Antonio Gates?". He didn't win it, but he did make the playoffs. And that's all you can ask for in this luck-filled game. So who here does the gut thing? Go out on a limb? I'm drunk and stupid right now, but fantasy football is played out like puppets right now. who's got the sleepers lined up this year. If you really know your stufff, you'd draft Kevin Jones before Alexander. You'd draft Lamont Jordan before Edjerrin James. But it's like the top 10 are lined up like what your're supposed to do. And the top-scorers next year will look nothing like it. I'm done blabblin my drunken self. 918966[/snapback] Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 I normally have the players I want to target and players I am avoiding....even in the 1st round. If I am wrong...then so be it.. But I have usually a coupled set of sleepers....usually 5 for each position...even at defense sometimes...and I make sure I can get these players as late as possible... If I feel a run on #2 WR's coming on and the teir is watering down...I'll make sure to snag my player when I want...but I always make sure to have a group so I can fall back on a player in case someone is on the same page with me... my money league isn't full of chumps exactly...but it's no huddle competition except 2 or 3....maybe 4 or 5 this year...but I usually get the players I want later on...too bad I gave a newbie advice on drafting Gates in the 13th round after I already had Heap.... I will not be offering advice this year...everyone has at least 1-6 years under their belt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 Last year was Antonio Gates, Drew Bennett, Javon Walker. These sneaky little picks made a team into a contender. 918966[/snapback] Drinking and driving or drafting does not go over well. Last year The Huddle had both Waker and Gates rated high. They also suggested Bennett and Larry Johnson as free agents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 For the most part I think the experts do a good job of tiering the players and then I do a lot of shuffling within those tiers based on my gut... and I've been very successful doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REZ Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 For the most part I think the experts do a good job of tiering the players and then I do a lot of shuffling within those tiers based on my gut... and I've been very successful doing that. 919119[/snapback] It's how I do it. I make my own tiers but I do pay attention to adp. That way I don't burn to high of a pick on a guy I personally may like more then the guys that are ranked higher then him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primetime9287 Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 I always have my rankings from the huddle at the draft, but I don't ever follow them 100%. I usually use the Cheat Sheets just to mark players that have been drafted. I have the players I want in the back of my mind. Like for instance, Steven Jackson IMO is rated a lot higher than the "experts" have him. So I would take him before Curtis Martin, even though Martin is rated higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trrhyne Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 The rankings are generally good, but you need to account for your own league's scoring system. I shuffle players around within tiers based upon my gut and shy away from players based upon my gut. Sometimes I win, sometimes I don't, but I get a lot of satisfaction knowing that it was my pick and I was not just following a cheatsheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 When you are a huddle MVP drafting on gut and doing what the experts say is pretty much the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 10, 2005 Share Posted August 10, 2005 I always have my rankings from the huddle at the draft, but I don't ever follow them 100%. I usually use the Cheat Sheets just to mark players that have been drafted. I have the players I want in the back of my mind. Like for instance, Steven Jackson IMO is rated a lot higher than the "experts" have him. So I would take him before Curtis Martin, even though Martin is rated higher. 919317[/snapback] I don't follow The Huddle rankings 100% and I wrote them. Drafts are never connect the dots, pick the next player, there are more decisions to make than that. More than anything, you should always draft the team that you really want with the players you feel most strongly about. That is why, incidentally, Gates and Walker were on most of my teams last year. I just had a good feeling on them. I am a huge proponent of doing all the research and number crunching, and then taking the players you feel are best armed with that knowledge but ones that appeal to you at a deeper level than just what their projections suggest. That is a reason why I am not a fan of using projections exclusively for determining ranking order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 I always have my rankings from the huddle at the draft, but I don't ever follow them 100%. I usually use the Cheat Sheets just to mark players that have been drafted. I have the players I want in the back of my mind. Like for instance, Steven Jackson IMO is rated a lot higher than the "experts" have him. So I would take him before Curtis Martin, even though Martin is rated higher. 919317[/snapback] What he said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 It also helps if you are familiar with the people you are in a league with. I can tell you who certain guys in my league are going to pick before they say it. Thats why I sometimes have to take a guy that im high on a little earlier then I would normally because I know he wont get past certain guys in my league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twiley Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 All I know is that this is the first year I've done slow drafts and I'm certainly overanalyzing and updating the spreadsheets way too much. It's enough to drive a man to drink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted August 11, 2005 Share Posted August 11, 2005 More than anything, you should always draft the team that you really want with the players you feel most strongly about. That is why, incidentally, Gates and Walker were on most of my teams last year. I just had a good feeling on them. I am a huge proponent of doing all the research and number crunching, and then taking the players you feel are best armed with that knowledge but ones that appeal to you at a deeper level than just what their projections suggest. That is a reason why I am not a fan of using projections exclusively for determining ranking order. 919563[/snapback] Agreed. What's the point of playing if you're just going to follow a cheat sheet somebody else created? Weeeeee, look at me! I can follow directions! I use Rhino's awesome spreadsheet as a starting point and add my own projections and weight them most heavily. Then I go through all the bio stuff I can read. Off-season trades, coaching changes, SOS, mock drafts, etc. Then I try to catch as much training camp footage and pre-season games as possible. Watching the games tell me a lot more than the game stats. Here's where the gut comes in. Just before each draft, I review my cheat sheets and look for players that stand out in my mind and may be undervalued and target them in the draft. I'm no FF genius, but I do pay attention to my gut. Case in point: 2001, initial draft for a new dynasty league. Based nearly entirely on "gut," I take Priest Holmes and Tomlinson with my first two picks. My fellow owners were laughing at me that day, but I've been laughing ever since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.