Looking for help with keepers

[DrSpade]

Hello all,

 

I don't post often, but have been reading for several years and made it to the championchip game last year. I lost, but still cleared 250.00 and most of my success came from being active on the waver wire with advise from this site, so thanks to everyone who posts here and to the staff for all the inside stuff.

 

Anyway, I am in a 10 team performance/scoring keeper league. The draft is not a snake draft. You must keep a minimum of three players and can keep a maximum of 7. Each player over 3 counts as a draft pick. I am planning on keeping 3 or 4 players, hoping to land a quality keeper RB or 2.

 

You have to start 1 qb, 1rb, 1 te, 1wr, 1k and 3 flex (can be any combo of rb, wr, or te). It is an IDP league, but that is another topic.

 

Keeping

Jamal Lewis, RB Ravens

Michael Bennett, RB Vikes

Chad Johnson, WR Bengls

 

Uncertain about

Chris Brown, RB Titans

Joe Horn, WR Saints

Trent Green, QB Chiefs

 

Dropping

L. Suggs, RB Browns

N. Goings, RB Panthers

 

Reasoning

Michael Bennett, RB Vikes- showed up to camp in good shape and is listed as the number 1 rb in a contract year. Smith is out. They drafted that rookie, and still have Moe to try and leach some goal line carries. Moss is gone, so stretching the defense may may tougher, but they may have a stronger commitment to the run. I like his upside, but can see why others dont think he is a slam dunk.

 

J. Lewis, RB Ravens- I dont think any justification is needed to keep him

 

Chad Johnson, WR Bengls- Hoping for a big year from him.

 

Chris Brown, RB Titans- Runs upright. Injury prone. Travis Henery is now in the house. Would rather go after one of the rookie RBs, but if someone thinks I am nuts to drop him, please chime in.

 

Joe Horn, WR Saints- I think he would be my 4th keeper if I keep 4. Puts up numbers. However, 10th year in the league and 33 years old playing on artificial turf. You always like to sell high and buy low. Maybe I could trade him for a draft pick?

 

Trent Green, QB Chiefs- He could also be my 4th keeper. His schedule is tougher this year. He was great for me last year (minus the championship game), and was a keeper. Is he going to put up enough numbers to seperate him from the middle tier QBs, several of which could be available in the middle rounds, or even the waiver wire? If I drop him, I could still possibley pick him back up, but not definate.

 

L. Suggs, RB Browns- Came on a little towards the end of the year. Currently the starter. Green is trying to sneak back into the picture. The Browns are still a bad team (sorry Browns fans). Worth the risk of dropping him to go after one of the rookie RBs? I think so.

 

N. Goings, RB Panthers- Was a hugh help for me last year off the wire, but I would rather avoid the panther RB situation this year.

 

 

I apologize for the lengthy post, and appreciate anyone who takes the time to read it and offer some insight. I guess the bottom line is the bubble players and their value vrs the incomming rookies in a keeper league. After scouting the rosters of the current teams, I anticipate only one team in the league will keep as few as 3 players other than my team. Many will keep at least 5, so I could end up with the second pick of the draft if I only keep 3 myself, and with that logic I could have up to two or three picks before I get bumped to my second to last slot for the remaining rounds. Good luck to everyone on the upcoming season.

[Hugh 0ne]

I'd keep 5. Keep the 3 you mentioned, and keep Brown and Horn. You're not going to get better value with your first pick, as I'd assume probably about 50 players are gone by then, no? Are you sure the rookies will be available? Which ones? When do you pick?

[DrSpade]

Thanks for the reply. I think your estimate of about 50 players being gone when I draft is close to the money. As for the rookies being there, it really depends on how many players the other teams keep. I have the second to last slot in the 10 team (non snake) draft. After reviewing the rosters of the other teams I am estimating that only one of the teams will keep the minimun of 3. So if I keep 3, I would get no worse than the second pick of the rookie class.

 

The question for me is does Chris Brown or Joe Horn or both have better value than Cad Williams, C. Benson , R. Brown and Arrington?

 

If I only keep 3 I could likely have a chance at 2 of these and/or the guys I drop before the majority of the other owners begin to draft.

 

Thoughts?

[Hugh 0ne]

OK, I'll put it to you this way, in a ranking, which is subject to change. The longer Benson and Brown hold out, the further they drop in the rankings. I already dropped them quite a bit because of the holdouts.

 

C. Williams - He'll get his shot, can't ask for more than that. Don't see Pittman taking too many carries if Williams is succesful

C. Brown - IF he can stay healthy, I don't think this will be a RBBC with Henry. He may lose some carries, but a healthy Chris Brown is a very good RB.

JJ. Arrington - Similar to Williams, he'll get a shot, no RBBC most likely.

C. Benson - the longer he sits, the more it hurts

R. Brown - the longer he sits, the more it hurts, and I wouldn't be surprised to see ganja boy doing better when he gets into game shape. Also, the Miami running game is going to be something to stay away from as it is.

J. Horn - Good WR, will move ahead of Brown and Benson in the very near future if they continue to hold out.

[Clubfoothead]

Tough call. I like Brown a lot, when he's healthy. I am pretty high on JJ Arrington.

 

Here is my take. If you keep Brown, keep Horn since you will pretty much be out of the running for Arrington.

 

Basically your situation to me comes down to who do you like more Brown or Arrington. I think I like Arrington more but if Brown is and can stay healthy he's a definite stud. Brown looked awesome at Cal. He's not at Cal anymore. Tough call but I might be more inclined to keep Brown and Horn and maybe use my 1st pick on Henry.

 

Good luck.

[DrSpade]

Thanks a lot for the post. Your reasoning is sound and is close to the way I am viewing this as well. I am high on both C. Williams and Arrington. Hopefully I can walk away with one and then perhaps regain either Chris Borwn or Joe Horn.

 

Another possibility is that the pick ahead of me likes R. Brown or Benson and my choices improve. That is the fun of the draft. I am ready for some Football!!

 

Good luck everyone and thanks for the input. I'll keep ya posted.