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Has anyone else noticed...


Caveman_Nick
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That there doesn't seem to be a questionmark free WR in this year's draft?

 

Looking at the Huddle's top receivers

1) T Holt - loves to get hurt. New HC, new OC, new system.

2) C Johnson - No C Palmer yet...A Wright. :D

3) R Moss - For starters look at the last 2 seasons. He's had injury problems. Then he has a new HC/OC/System. Then he has A Brooks.

4) S Smith - Okay...there isn't a big question mark here jumping out. Some people question if the presence of MeShawn will affect him negatively. I just question if last year was a fluke or not. Time will tell.

5) T Owens - Where to begin. Look at the last 2 seasons. Tons of problems. His last season in SF was not so good. New team and all the stuff that goes with it. And it's Dallas, the team whose star he defiled. And he has Drew, who can huck the ball a long way but is a mistake prone QB (and we all know how tolerant TO is)

6) A Boldin - K Warner...the presence of L Fitz...The presence of Edge, the injury bug...

7) L Fitz - K Warner...the presence of A Boldin...The presence of Edge...

8) M Harrison - The presence of Wayne, no more Edge, age...

 

I'm not saying that these guys are all bad draft picks waiting to happen, but I can't recall looking at a receiver class and feeling this much like any pick was a bit of a crapshoot compared to what I might be able to get with a later pick. Am I alone here?

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Correction...he missed 2 games for the first time last year, but in every year but 2004 he has not started all 16 games and been limited by injury in 1-4 games.

 

 

It's amazing how consistent and durable he's been over the years. Even missing 2 games and not being himself when he came back Holt still managed 102 catches for over 1300 yards and 9 TDs. However I agree with DMD putting so many WRs in the tier 1 rankings as it could be anyones guess how it all falls together at the end of the year.

Edited by major-tom
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I don't think there is that much risk parity. I think the trend this year has already been set for an extended RB run through the first two rounds, and WRs are being devalued accordingly. Sort of an a priori reason to take Reggie Bush over Reggie Wayne.

 

I see a smaller risk set in the first tier:

 

Steve Smith -- Last year was no fluke. I think Smith is a stud, in a great situation he's more than familiar with, and that's the kinda stuff that makes for a solid first-tier WR. Keyshawn? Um ... No.

 

CJ -- I still don't believe it myself, but all signs point to Palmer starting the season. I've gone from a complete skeptic to where I'd be very surprised if Palmer did not start the regular season. Heck, the big question Lewis won't answer now is whether he'll start the third preseason game. With Palmer back, everything I said above about Smith applies, maybe even a little moreso.

 

TO -- Okay, none of the above applies to TO, but it didn't apply his first year in Philly, either, and look what he did that year. Drew can throw the ball, TO has something to prove, and Bill wants a championship. I think the Dallas Star is a non-issue. I also think even stupid TO learned not to listen to Drew for career advice -- at least through one season.

 

Reggie Wayne -- Two things stand out at me here: One, age -- both his and Marvin's. The second thing is that he caught more balls than Marvin last year. The TDs will come -- he had 12 two years ago. I think Peyton will throw a lot of them. Either Marvin or Reggie has to go here, and I think Reggie's upside outweighs Marvin's downside.

 

I think the others fall into tier two because they do have higher risk: Love Randy, think he's a great guy, best talent in the game, but I don't think he much gives a poo about playing football anymore. My brain cannot allow me to put either Arizona receiver into tier one, because if Mrs. Warner has anything to say about it, they will probably have a rookie QB throwing to them, Edge, etc. Marvin is still aging, and he was number two in receptions on his team last year.

 

I'll probably end up switching out Holt for Wayne before I draft, because I admit I have no real good reason for keeping Holt out of the first tier, or even why he shouldn't be the No. 1 WR overall. Right now, just a gut feeling Holt won't exactly crash this year, but won't put up top 5 numbers, either.

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