Perchoutofwater Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Do any financial/money managers who have figured out how to beat the market guarantee at least the market return (over some specified time period) to the people who put their money with them? Mine doesn't, but he doesn't get paid, unless he makes me money, and so far he has been pretty good at making me money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 im going to have say "bullsh!t" And, you're more than welcome to call me at the office any time you like. I'm more than happy to discuss this at your convenience. LMK if you'd like to talk about this, and I'll PM you my phone number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 14, 2006 Author Share Posted July 14, 2006 And, you're more than welcome to call me at the office any time you like. I'm more than happy to discuss this at your convenience. LMK if you'd like to talk about this, and I'll PM you my phone number. and talking to you vs reading what you type is going to be the difference...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 (edited) Do any of the financial/money managers who have figured out how to beat the market guarantee at least the market return (over some specified time period) to the people who put their money with them? I've seen pricipal guaranteed investments (i.e., you won't lose money even if the market does), but no "market or better" investments (i.e., you'll beat the market in up years and you'll lose less money than the market in down years) that I can think of. I've seen "you can make 8-16% / yr, year in year out pretty much regardless of what is going on" (in fact, that is (mostly) what I do) ... but, if the market is up 25%, you'll still only make 8-16% ... but, if the market is down -5%, you'll still make your 8-16%. Edited July 14, 2006 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 14, 2006 Author Share Posted July 14, 2006 (edited) Do any of the financial/money managers who have figured out how to beat the market guarantee at least the market return (over some specified time period) to the people who put their money with them? some annuities guarantee a certain amount....your capped on your downside, but also on the upside too Edited July 14, 2006 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 and talking to you vs reading what you type is going to be the difference...... You can more easily ask questions, allowing you to determine how much sh|t I'm full of (or not), and I can determine if you have one ounce of creativity, insight or knowledge on this topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 (edited) Do any of the financial/money managers who have figured out how to beat the market guarantee at least the market return (over some specified time period) to the people who put their money with them? What am I talking about. Of course I know some people who run a "I'll beat the market in good years and bad years, but you may still lose money" types of investments. If you want to read about these sorts of things search on "portable alpha". The basic idea is to take some of the money and buy S&P futures ... and use the rest for something else (like merger arbitrage, a diversified version of the carry trade (i.e., borrow short term at lower rates and invest a little longer term at higher rates, making the profit on the interest rate spread)), and then "port" that lower-risk profit straight on top of the S&P futures. Edited July 14, 2006 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecerwin Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 (edited) Like I said, I don't have enough knowledge in the investment arena, like most people. This seems like one of those things that it is never to late to start learning. Company's like Schwab, E-trade, etc all have tons of info out there and are fairly easy to use. You can use their analysts, opinions, outlooks, etc and they generally make sense and will end up making you money. I use Charles Schwab and basically play around in the smaller stocks. Sometimes I will use the "schwab equity ratings" to help me choose a stock to buy and other times I'll just read up on what is going on in the market. All the info and help is out there, you just gotta be proactive about it. I've made some pretty good gains in the last couple years just by doing stuff like this. I'm also fairly inexperienced and haven't been in the market as long as the old balls around here. So who knows, maybe all my gains will disappear tomorrow. Just my Edited July 14, 2006 by thecerwin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigalf03 Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 ...blah blah blah blah... ...explain that "you can't beat the market" to my friend / associate who's made 26% / yr for the past 17 years on a portfolio of (currently) $500,000,000 ... or my other friend / associate who's made >30% / yr for the past 12 years on a portfolio of (currently) $500,000,000 ... or my friend / associate who has made money each and every month for the past 49 months on a portfolio of (currently) $165,000,000 ... Studies are good for theory and general education. They are (generally) bad for actually making money. First of all let me make it clear that other common sense and some classes in college, I am not trying to sound like an expert because I am not The examples that you discuss hear are probably quite possible, however the average huddle patron (unless I am alone in this one and surrounded by millionaires) does not have sufficient assets for an elite money manager to work with them. For the average, middle class investor concerned with providing money for a comfortable retirement (I'm talking final goal of 7, maybe 8 figures to generate income at retirement, not the elite friends that you speak of) dollar cost averaging is the safest, most effective way to make money in the market. Just my opinion, but I think it is more helpful to give suggestions and insight that is relevant to the specific audience, instead of giving examples of situations that are WAY beyond the reality of the majority. The natural reaction is to say that you are full of $hit (and i am not saying you are) and discredit you, because, at least in my mind, you are coming off as arrogant. There, my and once again only my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 (edited) Don't mean to come off as arrogant ... just tweaks me when someone makes a definitive statement (i.e., "you can't beat the market") that is patently false. There are MANY misperceptions about what is risky and what is a sure-fire winning strategy. For example ... "Timing the market is a dumb idea" vs. "Dollar cost averaging is a good idea" Reality: Dollar cost averaging is nothing more than a systematic approach to timing the market. Meaning, you can have several different systematic approaches to investing (i.e., sell it when it goes up 15% and buy it back when it drops 5% ... or ... buy $1,000 on the first of each month regardless of what is going on) ... and all systematic approaches, by definition, are "timing the market". PS - Those $500,000,000 portfolios I referenced are their clients money ... only some of it is theirs ... Most of it it someone elses (just like the mutual fund managers that are more widely known). Edited July 14, 2006 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 This seems like one of those things that it is never to late to start learning. Company's like Schwab, E-trade, etc all have tons of info out there and are fairly easy to use. You can use their analysts, opinions, outlooks, etc and they generally make sense and will end up making you money. I use Charles Schwab and basically play around in the smaller stocks. Sometimes I will use the "schwab equity ratings" to help me choose a stock to buy and other times I'll just read up on what is going on in the market. All the info and help is out there, you just gotta be proactive about it. I've made some pretty good gains in the last couple years just by doing stuff like this. I'm also fairly inexperienced and haven't been in the market as long as the old balls around here. So who knows, maybe all my gains will disappear tomorrow. Just my Sound advice. Contrary to popular opinion, I'm not stupid and am pretty sure I could figure things out if I dedicated enough time to it. Never gonna be no Gordon Gekko, but it would be nice to learn a little about this and take more control of my own destiny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Gamble? All of life is a gamble, son. BTW, dollar cost averaging IS nothing more than a systematic form of market timing. ...chew on that one for a while... Note to self: Muck admits his clandenstine relationship to Puddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigalf03 Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Don't mean to come off as arrogant ... just tweaks me when someone makes a definitive statement (i.e., "you can't beat the market") that is patently false. There are MANY misperceptions about what is risky and what is a sure-fire winning strategy. For example ... "Timing the market is a dumb idea" vs. "Dollar cost averaging is a good idea" Reality: Dollar cost averaging is nothing more than a systematic approach to timing the market. Meaning, you can have several different systematic approaches to investing (i.e., sell it when it goes up 15% and buy it back when it drops 5% ... or ... buy $1,000 on the first of each month regardless of what is going on) ... and all systematic approaches, by definition, are "timing the market". PS - Those $500,000,000 portfolios I referenced are their clients money ... only some of it is theirs ... Most of it it someone elses (just like the mutual fund managers that are more widely known). Thanks for clearing that up you obviously know what you are talking about, is finance your profession? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Another thing ... Most investors have what I call a "faith based investment approach" ... buy and hope it goes up. How is this any different from gambling ... put it on red and hope things land as you wish? There are loads of ways to invest that are more conservative, disciplined and business-like than the approaches used by the vast majority of the investing public...its just that most investors (doesn't matter how much or little you have) do NOT think about things the right way. "Buy and hope it goes up" is not an investment approach. "Don't buy unless you KNOW how you're going to make money and why it is probable that it will come to fruition." ...now THAT is an investment discipline...especially if you can get rid of the risks you don't want and still make a conservative profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Thanks for clearing that up you obviously know what you are talking about, is finance your profession? Yes, I run a couple of private investment partnerships here in KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigalf03 Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Yes, I run a couple of private investment partnerships here in KC. Kansas City? My brother works for Morgan Stanley in Overland Park Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Kansas City? My brother works for Morgan Stanley in Overland Park LoL...this could be a case of "it's a very small world"... In another business I am a 'silent owner' in, there's a chance we're going to hire one or two guys from MS in OP to work for us / partner with us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigalf03 Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 LoL...this could be a case of "it's a very small world"... In another business I am a 'silent owner' in, there's a chance we're going to hire one or two guys from MS in OP to work for us / partner with us. intersting, probably not my bro, i know hes really happy where he is, but an interesting coincidence non the less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Gordon Gekko: Mixed emotions, pal. Like seeing Larry Wildmon going off a cliff in my new Maserati. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Note to self: Muck admits his clandenstine relationship to Puddy. Man. I can't believe I let my big secret out on an internet message board to hordes of people I've never met. :barf: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeeman Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 (edited) Do any of the financial/money managers who have figured out how to beat the market guarantee at least the market return (over some specified time period) to the people who put their money with them? No way - that's just crazy talk! What are you, an econ major or sumthin? There is more beta risk for these guys chasing higher returns. So at some point, they must have been down almost as much, but manage to make it up in time for the end of the year Xmas party, by taking even bigger/high risk positions. Makes me wonder what the first few weeks in January look like for them... Edited July 14, 2006 by Coffeeman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 No way - that's just crazy talk! What are you, an econ major or sumthin? There is more beta risk for these guys chasing higher returns. So at some point, they must have been down almost as much, but manage to make it up in time for the end of the year Xmas party, by taking even bigger/high risk positions. Makes me wonder what the first few weeks in January look like for them... Hey, coffee ... do some reading on "portable alpha". That said there are LOADS of people who view their role as money managers as nothing more than a call option on someone elses checkbook...and if it expires worthless it's someone elses problem, not theirs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeeman Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 Hey, coffee ... do some reading on "portable alpha". That said there are LOADS of people who view their role as money managers as nothing more than a call option on someone elses checkbook...and if it expires worthless it's someone elses problem, not theirs. Now why would I want to go and do something to ruin my usual 'ignorance is bliss' mode? Its the only way I know to keep my stress level down... But I'm googling now, you mofo... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 So... I have 100% of my 401K in the "Agressive Loss" fund from John Hancock. Good or bad idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted July 14, 2006 Share Posted July 14, 2006 How often do you look at it? Looking to often can drive a guy crazy. I look at mine every 4-6 weeks. That's probably too often, but I like to have some sense that I'm managing my money. I do move money around between funds quite a bit. Fidelity seems to be offering more and more and some of them are pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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