Just an Observation

[SpinalTapp]

This is the first year in five years of fantasy football I am simply not excited to do all the usual research and prep work I normally do pre-season. My problem is that I am not sure the work will pay off as much as it usually does this year because of the unprecendented uncertainty at the QB, RB, and to a much lesser degree, the DST position. Luck will play a bigger role this year than in any I can remember over the past five.

 

QB Position - Injuries to Palmer, Brees, and Culpepper as well as the uncertainty asssociated with when they will actually suit up and how their new teams (in the case of brees and pepper) will work for them create big risk with all three of these stars. Then there is the McNabb problem - which QB shows up this season? How will Brooks fare in Oakland. How about Bledsoe with TO in Dallas? Manning is a lock at one and Brady seems to be a solid choice at two. Hasselback and Bulger should be strong - however, from there - your QB choice could either bury your team or take you to the championship. Research and prep can't help an owner see through the spin of how far Pepper and Palmer are progressing or whether Brees or Brooks will boon or bust in their new homes.

 

RB - We have never seen so many RBBCs or risky running back situations in the past five years. The following teams have RBBCs or risky RB situations - Pittsburgh, Carolina, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Tennesee, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, New England, Indy, Baltimore, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Chicago, and San Francisco. That is 17 out of 32 teams where there is total or partial instability at the RB position. Prep will help sort out the messes...but luck play a huge part in picking the right horse in those situations.

 

WR - One of two positions where there appears to be some consistency. The usual suspects are solid and outside of TO, J.Walker, or Galloway - prep work will pay off here.

 

TE - Like WR - I believe TEs will play out pretty consistently this year.

 

K - as usual, who cares

 

DST - after last year - all bets are off with DSTs. Baltimore and New England went from the top two DSTs to off the map. It appears Carolina, Pittsburgh, and the Bears are strong this year...but who knows. After that, start guessing and hope you get lucky.

 

Give me some presepctive. What is your take? Are you having the same difficulties filling out your own cheat sheets or am I just friggin crazy. What is happening in the NFL? Is this just a one time occurrence, or is this the new NFL?

[tonorator]

seems to me like you have already done some fine research ...

 

i hear you about the uncertain situations, but it is still early. there will be much to watch in the pre-season and plenty on news coming out that will help shape many of these questions.

[Big Country]

I think it is the uncertainty tha makes the research all the more important.

[loyalboyd]

Thats the fun part of Fantasy Football.

[smt080]

Wow SpinalTapp, that was very insightful. I have to agree with you about everything you said here. I'm wondering if this is just the end result of parody that exists in the NFL. As I was reading your post, especially about the amount of teams going to the dreaded RBBC, would it be smart to tweak the scoring systems in our leagues. For the past 6 years, my league has used 3 pts/rushing touchdowns. A few owners seem to think that we should increase it to 6 pts. I've been dead against this move as well as our other commissioner. I'm starting to think of an argument for the increase now. What do you guys think? Again SpinalTapp thanks for posting this. This is really making me think about my own league. It is still early though, which makes me think that maybe things will work itself out before too long.

[SpinalTapp]

I agree that the research helps prep an owner to deal with the uncertainty. However, I am not sure we will know the answer to many of the key questions before the season starts...For example, I am sure we will be spun to death about how Palmer and Pepper will be ready to go day one. Also, I believe many of the RBBC/risky RB situations simply will not be solved before the season starts. Take Dillon vs Maroney or whether KJones or J.Lewis or A.Green will deliver or lose their jobs. Denver will always change their position on starting RBs and how knows what will happen in Indy.

 

In almost every RBBC case, I bet there is a better than 50% chance that the RB named the starter on day one will lose their job during the season (i.e TJones vs CBenson or C.Mart vs Blaylock or Houston). In the old days, committees used to be comprised of two RBs. Now, it seems that a ton of teams have THREE horses that could take the starting job.

 

Don't get me wrong - the uncertainty does make for fun. However, some owners, who have not done any prep, could have as much success as owners that kill themselves prepping (as I always do) simply because they get lucky.

 

Again, I am simply amazed at the uncanny number of RBBCs in the NFL and the total uncertainty that exists at the QB spot. It is simply unprecedented - this will be a very interesting year. Waiver wire pickups may also end up making or breaking teams.

[mbaker123]

I'd have to agree with Big Country. The more research you do about injuries and RBBC's the better equiped you are at draft time to hopefully hedge your bets and know which one to go with and which one not to.

 

And the NFL is a copycat league, the Steelers won last year with a RBBC so I wouldn't be surprised to see others try and immitate this year......

[Clubfoothead]

This is the first year in five years of fantasy football I am simply not excited to do all the usual research and prep work I normally do pre-season. My problem is that I am not sure the work will pay off as much as it usually does this year because of the unprecendented uncertainty at the QB, RB, and to a much lesser degree, the DST position. Luck will play a bigger role this year than in any I can remember over the past five.

 

QB Position - Injuries to Palmer, Brees, and Culpepper as well as the uncertainty asssociated with when they will actually suit up and how their new teams (in the case of brees and pepper) will work for them create big risk with all three of these stars. Then there is the McNabb problem - which QB shows up this season? How will Brooks fare in Oakland. How about Bledsoe with TO in Dallas? Manning is a lock at one and Brady seems to be a solid choice at two. Hasselback and Bulger should be strong - however, from there - your QB choice could either bury your team or take you to the championship. Research and prep can't help an owner see through the spin of how far Pepper and Palmer are progressing or whether Brees or Brooks will boon or bust in their new homes.

 

RB - We have never seen so many RBBCs or risky running back situations in the past five years. The following teams have RBBCs or risky RB situations - Pittsburgh, Carolina, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Tennesee, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, New England, Indy, Baltimore, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Chicago, and San Francisco. That is 17 out of 32 teams where there is total or partial instability at the RB position. Prep will help sort out the messes...but luck play a huge part in picking the right horse in those situations.

 

WR - One of two positions where there appears to be some consistency. The usual suspects are solid and outside of TO, J.Walker, or Galloway - prep work will pay off here.

 

TE - Like WR - I believe TEs will play out pretty consistently this year.

 

K - as usual, who cares

 

DST - after last year - all bets are off with DSTs. Baltimore and New England went from the top two DSTs to off the map. It appears Carolina, Pittsburgh, and the Bears are strong this year...but who knows. After that, start guessing and hope you get lucky.

 

Give me some presepctive. What is your take? Are you having the same difficulties filling out your own cheat sheets or am I just friggin crazy. What is happening in the NFL? Is this just a one time occurrence, or is this the new NFL?

 

 

If you don't mind my saying, it looks like you've just started doing the research differently. Reaserching more big picture than stats. I've been doing it that way for a while. It all started when I began using the tier system. I step back, enjoythe pre-season then once before my drafts start use thehuddle rankings and tier them with colored hilighters so that way I can see at the same time my own tier vs. thehuddle's rankings.

 

I think it is probably more important to know how healthy Culpepper and Palmer are. To understand that whoever is runningthe ball in New Orleans they've got Mike Karney squared away. That if you liked LenDale he's been reunited with Norm. That the Cowboys are looking to run more 2 TE sets with no fullback. That Mike Matrz is in Detroit.

 

That seems more important than putting effort into ranking Edge #5 and projecting 1,794 total yards and 16 TDs and putting Jackson at #7 projecting 1,637 total yards and 13 TDs.

[tomfin2000]

I agree with what you're seeing, but for me, it's making the preseaon research much more interesting than usual.

 

I can't remember a time in the last five years where there has been this much potential to secure a legitimate RB2 with upside in the 3rd round and later. I've done several 12 team mocks where there have been plenty of good options left to choose from at RB in the 3rd and sometimes even the 4th round.

 

It's a nice change of pace from the old rule of thumb that if if you don't take 2 RBs with your first 2 picks you're automatically going to suffer at the position unless you hit on a deep sleeper or a waiver wire pickup. I don't think that's necessarily the case this season.

Edited July 14, 2006 by tomfin2000

[Seahawks21]

People don't consistently place well in fantasy leagues because of luck. You want to have a good team, watch football. A whole lotta football. Watch mop-up time, watch college, watch as much football as you can...you will know who is good. The #'s will come. Then the $$.

[SpinalTapp]

Seahawks - I have always agreed with you on the luck issue which is why I have always been a diligent, bordering on insane, researcher. My concern is that the slackers who show up with the cheat sheet from one magazine may achieve a level of success this year based on luck.

[smt080]

Seahawks - I have always agreed with you on the luck issue which is why I have always been a diligent, bordering on insane, researcher. My concern is that the slackers who show up with the cheat sheet from one magazine may achieve a level of success this year based on luck.

 

The slackers may have a decent team on draft day, but fantasy championships are not won on draft day. The people who spend time researching and anticipating key developments in the NFL are more likely to have the championships.

[Seahawks21]

Seahawks - I have always agreed with you on the luck issue which is why I have always been a diligent, bordering on insane, researcher. My concern is that the slackers who show up with the cheat sheet from one magazine may achieve a level of success this year based on luck.

I'm not talking research. I'm talking about watching. This year, more than most it seems, has a ton of blow/bust high risk type players. I know which ones are going to do well. They're gonna have to rely on luck since they don't know the players. I'm just not seeing your argument. Maybe you are suggesting the trend in fantasy football is towards parody, which is an argument I might be inclined to agree with.