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wildbluefan

WORST NIGHTMARE Came True !

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My worst nightmare has just come true, drawing the #4 pick in a no PPR , BIG MONEY league ! One week ago today, I would have been tickled pink with the #4 pick , and would've been happy with PORTIS at #4 !

But with his injury , I feel they will reduce his load, especially near the goal-line to protect that shoulder (UGHHHH)!

 

This is a HEAVY TD league (10 points for rushing TDs) and there is NO PPR ! OUCH

 

So, I have basically narrowed the choice at #4 to :

 

1) TIKI BARBER- Three things scare me about TIKI -:

a) There is talk of the TD vulture (Jacobs) re-surfacing

:D He is on the WRONG side of 30 - this has not stopped him yet, but it may this year !

c) TIKI faces one HELLACIOUS schedule of run defenses !

 

2) STEVE JACKSON - Yes, I know this guy has a CHANCE to put up great numbers with the new offensive schemes under Linehan, but do I want to risk a high pick on a RB who has a "CHANCE" to do well ? Plus, he is not the model of health with lingering knee problems and an ACHILLES problem !

 

3) RUDI JOHNSON - He is big in a league like this with 10 pt TDs and no PPR, but he too has issues with the PALMER uncertainty, and he also has a ROUGH schedule to contend with !!

 

ANY INSIGHT HERE WOULD BE DEEPLY APPRECIATED, as I have to live with the #4 pick and TRY to make the most of it !!!!!!!!!! :D

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Unless Portis' situation takes a turn for the worst, I would still pick him here. From everything I heard, he will be back week 1.

 

If you are scared off completely, I think I'd consider Jackson. If healthy, he will be the focal point of the offense.

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What about Ronnie Brown? He's flying under a lot of people's radar. Before the "pre"season started, I would have laughed at the thought, but he will be the heart of that offense. On top of that, there is no R Williams to steal carries away. And who is the backup??? Sammy Morris?? I dont think that he's going to pose a huge threat. #4 might be a little bit of a reach, but with Portis's current situation, may be back week 1, but the injury will be lingering all year! I dont like Barber that much either. I really think that he will be this year's Curtis Martin. Great season last year, mediocre year this year. The only thing that makes him appealing is the continued development of Manning. They'll probably have more redzone chances this year outside of the 10. Last year anything inside the 10 went to the TD hog in Jacobs. I think that Barber offers the biggest risk/reward, and I think that Jackson will be the safest pick, but will it be the smartest? I say Jackson or Brown. Both are the #1 RB's with no decent backup. They wont be pulled very often...

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Unless Portis' situation takes a turn for the worst, I would still pick him here. From everything I heard, he will be back week 1.

 

If you are scared off completely, I think I'd consider Jackson. If healthy, he will be the focal point of the offense.

 

 

agree!

 

Brown is a very talented RB, I just don't think he'll have as many chances to score inside the 20 then steve jackson or C. portis if healthy will

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I think Brown may be your best option. Most people can't even name the handcuff to Ronnie. I'm a big believer in Nick Sabin. Brown is by far the only game in town. I have a feeling that Ronnie may find himself in next year's big three. Miami could be more dificult to defence this year with Cpep's mobility thus creating chances for Ronnie. Plus I have heard the o-line has improved. I still like Clinton (injury is being blown out of proportion) but if you are unsure Brown could be just as good.

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I think Brown may be your best option. Most people can't even name the handcuff to Ronnie. I'm a big believer in Nick Sabin. Brown is by far the only game in town. I have a feeling that Ronnie may find himself in next year's big three. Miami could be more dificult to defence this year with Cpep's mobility thus creating chances for Ronnie. Plus I have heard the o-line has improved. I still like Clinton (injury is being blown out of proportion) but if you are unsure Brown could be just as good.

 

 

Gotta agree here. Brown would be my pick.

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Why not take Peyton, great article on this site, listing all the benefits of drafting Manning

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I have 4th also and as of right now (assuming the injury doesn't worsen) I am still set on Portis.

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I went with James with my #4 pick. But, this was not a money league so it wasn't that big of a deal. The one thing that I would not do is take Rudi Johnson. This guy is the most over rated player as far as fantasy football goes. If I could change my James pick and go with someone else, it would probably be Brown.

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A couple weeks ago on the show PTI Tiki Barber said he wouldn't draft himself on a FF team this year if he were any of us. He said he won't be getting as many TDs.

 

Reggie Bush and Tiki both agree LJ should be taken number 1.

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You guys need to remember ... 10 points for rushing TDs ...

 

So, whomever he picks at #4, he needs to be pretty certain the guy will get AT LEAST 10 rushing TDs.

 

What RBs have the best chance to do that (in alphabetical order) outside the 'top three'?

 

Ronnie Brown

Steven Jackson

Edgerrin James

Rudi Johnson

Lamont Jordan

Willis McGahee

Clinton Portis

 

...now, of those seven RBs, which ones have the biggest chance of NOT getting at least 10 rushing TDs? IMO, McGahee is the biggest risk here...leaving:

 

Ronnie Brown -- never been THE guy at college or pros ... a bit of an unknown ... had only four rushing TDs last year

 

Steven Jackson -- has been a little dinged up each year (it seems) and his is also his first time to be the unchallenged workhorse back each week ... a bit of an unknown ... had eight rushing TDs last year in his first year as the primary (but not exclusive) ball carrier (despite missing two games)

 

Edgerrin James -- has had 10+ rushing TDs in four of seven years (and 9 in one of the other three) ... but is on a new team with a history of poor rushing attacks ...

 

Rudi Johnson -- is 2 for 2 in getting 10+ rushing TDs as a starter (and had 9 rushing TDs in his first year with lots of work after Dillon went down) ... only real change for him is that Palmer may miss the first week or two.

 

Lamont Jordan -- had 9 rushing TDs in his first year in a starting role (but only played in 14 games last year) ... new QB and questionable OL play in the preseason is clouding this a bit ... but, he did say that he is in quite a bit better shape (physically and intellectually as it regards the playbook) this year than last.

 

Clinton Portis -- has 10+ rushing TDs in three of four years ... but now has a bum shoulder that may/may not cause problems all year long

 

....

 

So, to me, it comes down to (in no certain order) Jordan, Portis, Edge or RJohnson as the guys that are MOST LIKELY to get you at least 10 rushing TDs this coming season. SJax and RBrown may hit you a home run, but, for my HUGE MONEY league, I just don't want to get this pick wrong.

 

PS - If you do take Portis, try to snag Ladell Betts at some point in case he does have to sit for a few games...

Edited by muck

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What about Ronnie Brown? He's flying under a lot of people's radar. Before the "pre"season started, I would have laughed at the thought, but he will be the heart of that offense. On top of that, there is no R Williams to steal carries away. And who is the backup??? Sammy Morris?? I dont think that he's going to pose a huge threat. #4 might be a little bit of a reach, but with Portis's current situation, may be back week 1, but the injury will be lingering all year! I dont like Barber that much either. I really think that he will be this year's Curtis Martin. Great season last year, mediocre year this year. The only thing that makes him appealing is the continued development of Manning. They'll probably have more redzone chances this year outside of the 10. Last year anything inside the 10 went to the TD hog in Jacobs. I think that Barber offers the biggest risk/reward, and I think that Jackson will be the safest pick, but will it be the smartest? I say Jackson or Brown. Both are the #1 RB's with no decent backup. They wont be pulled very often...

 

Unless you are a member of the Huddle. In that case Brown is the #4 or #5 pick everytime.

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