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SLGRAF

RE: Article about picking Manning first

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He writes an article advocating choosing Manning first overall, on the basis that he has been at the top of fantasy leagues in terms of total fantasy points. Yet, not once does he mention that QB is a MUCH less scarce position for fantasy purposes than RB, given that each NFL team has one starting QB and one starting RB, but, each fantasy team has one starting QB and two starting RBs. If you are in a FFL league that starts two QBs and two RBs, then taking Manning first might make sense. But, most leagues are not setup like that.

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Amen to that! I wouldn't take Manning in the first round even; wouldn't even consider it. Yes he's solid but not as valuable as a top RB.

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Impressive, most impressive - but you are not a Jedi yet. :D

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He writes an article advocating choosing Manning first overall, on the basis that he has been at the top of fantasy leagues in terms of total fantasy points. Yet, not once does he mention that QB is a MUCH less scarce position for fantasy purposes than RB, given that each NFL team has one starting QB and one starting RB, but, each fantasy team has one starting QB and two starting RBs. If you are in a FFL league that starts two QBs and two RBs, then taking Manning first might make sense. But, most leagues are not setup like that.

 

1st? NO way! but in the late 1st round is feasible. He puts up numbers that are equal to that of Tiki, or another top tier 2 RB.

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Amen to that! I wouldn't take Manning in the first round even; wouldn't even consider it. Yes he's solid but not as valuable as a top RB.

 

 

 

It all just depends on the scoring. From watching them in the first 2 preseason games, you have to figure that the colts will be passing about 75% of the time this year. Only will be running to keep the defenses honest. And with all the talent and $$ wrapped up in the passing game, you'd be silly to pass on him in the 1st round. There's only 2 players that SHOULD be rated higher than Manning. LT, and SA. LJ is going to flop this year. They cant get it together in KC so far, and it's going to be a LONG season for those who took him with the 1st overall pick. I have yet to have my true draft, but have done MANY mock drafts, and there are still QUALITY RB's there in the 3rd and 4th rounds.. To take Manning and top WR's and good/mediocre STARTING RB's, you're only looking to make it to the FF Superbowl. You could make the case by saying what if he gets injured? What if anyone's #1 round gets injured? You can write them off.. I have the 5th pick in my draft, and if Manning is there when it's my pick, he wont be there at the 6th overall pick. Barber is overrated. Portis will be lagging due to a sore shoulder all year.. R Brown has a lot of upside, but will he be able to stick it out AND carry the entire load for an entire 16 game season? The ONLY player that warrants consideration there is S Jackson. He's already proven himself, and he's young. But will I take potential over a full thing? Absolutely not! There couldn't be a more solid sure pick this year than Manning! Now start laying into me and shread this apart! :D

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If you have the 5th pick in a 12 team league, that means your next picks will be at #20 and #29. Now, do you honestly expect even a decent RB to be left at #29?? Meanwhile, there will be plenty of solid QB options into the 4th and 5th rounds. If Manning throws for 4000 yards and 35 TDs, and a QB drafted in the 4th round throws for 3500 yards and 28 TDs, was it really worth drafting Manning in the top-5?? And, your stance that the loss of Edge will help the passing game is iffy, because teams will not only play tighter pass defense without there being a major rushing threat in the Colts backfield, but Manning will also be missing the receiver that Edge was out of the backfield.

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you have to figure that the colts will be passing about 75% of the time this year.

:D

 

About the worst you'll see as a run/pass ratio is 40-60; Arizona last year was near the worst I'd ever seen at 35-65. The Eagles were slightly better at 37-63.

I have yet to have my true draft, but have done MANY mock drafts, and there are still QUALITY RB's there in the 3rd and 4th rounds.. To take Manning and top WR's and good/mediocre STARTING RB's, you're only looking to make it to the FF Superbowl.

"QUALITY" RBs available in the 3/4th rounds in my current dynasty draft - Laurence Maroney, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor, Foster/Williams in Car, J Lewis, J Addai, L White, F Gore - very few of them I'd feel great about as my #2, much less my #1. Plenty of warts on that crew, not to say you can't luck out, but I prefer not to depend on luck.

There couldn't be a more solid sure pick this year than Manning! Now start laying into me and shread this apart! :D

 

I think the thing you're missing isn't that Manning isn't money in the bank for 4000 yds and ~28 tds; it's that the relative dropoff from him to the next QB is much less than the drops between tiers of RBs. And there is always someone who can be gotten VERY cheaply at the QB position who can surprise for numbers a notch below - or even above, as in the case of the undervalued Tom Brady and Carson Palmer last year.

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If you have the 5th pick in a 12 team league, that means your next picks will be at #20 and #29. Now, do you honestly expect even a decent RB to be left at #29?? Meanwhile, there will be plenty of solid QB options into the 4th and 5th rounds. If Manning throws for 4000 yards and 35 TDs, and a QB drafted in the 4th round throws for 3500 yards and 28 TDs, was it really worth drafting Manning in the top-5?? And, your stance that the loss of Edge will help the passing game is iffy, because teams will not only play tighter pass defense without there being a major rushing threat in the Colts backfield, but Manning will also be missing the receiver that Edge was out of the backfield.

 

 

But it doesnt say what type of league it is. I have the #5 pick in a 10 team standard scoring league. Which gives me #15 and #25.. It's all a crapshoot! I could have a stud QB, and 2 stud WR's, and a mediocre RB, whereas someone else has 1 stud RB, above average WR, above average WR/QB, and mediocre RB. Guess it depends on the paramaters of the league.

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But it doesnt say what type of league it is. I have the #5 pick in a 10 team standard scoring league. Which gives me #15 and #25.. It's all a crapshoot! I could have a stud QB, and 2 stud WR's, and a mediocre RB, whereas someone else has 1 stud RB, above average WR, above average WR/QB, and mediocre RB. Guess it depends on the paramaters of the league.

 

Unless the parameters include starting 2 QBs and 1 RB, the value of QB to RB should hold pretty much as a constant. :D

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