Easy n Dirty Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 We've all heard it many times before - you can't win your league in the first round, but you certainly can lose it (kinda' ironic in that you almost could win your league this year in the first round, but I think the saying still holds true). LT is far and away the safest pick out there, I'm at a loss as to how there could possibly be a more clear cut #1 pick in the following season's draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 DMD's point is a good one, especially for next year - while I don't think LT repeats, I don't know who takes over (yet) and barring injury I do know that LT will be top 3-5, so LT would be the "safe" pick. But compared to last year, the LT angle is a bit accurate if you count SA and LJ combined as LT in that they both came off monster years and was hard to choose between the two, while LT had a "normal" for him year (and had the QB issue) so people saw him mostly as the 2/3 pick. Next year, a guy at the 2/3/4 pick could be the guy.....just gotta figure out who it is. You don't think that LJ is as safe a pick? Granted he's not blowing up like LT at the moment, but he's not sucking either. I agree that you draft for consistency...I'm not unhappy with what I am getting out of LJ. How does anyone predict the type of season LT is having? It would be as tough to predict as, say...the stretch run that LJ had last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Next Generation Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 You don't think that LJ is as safe a pick? Granted he's not blowing up like LT at the moment, but he's not sucking either. I agree that you draft for consistency...I'm not unhappy with what I am getting out of LJ. How does anyone predict the type of season LT is having? It would be as tough to predict as, say...the stretch run that LJ had last year. You're right. LJ is probably the 2nd safest pick. But LT has proven over 6 years that he's safer than anyone: I hear ya, but it's LT. He has been the model of consistency for a fantasy RB since he got into the league. I think he's been top 5 for the last 5 years and top 7 his first year (something like that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 The real question should be... Would you still pick LT as the first pick if he ends up on the Madden cover? I'd think twice if that were to happen. LT isn't affected by such stuff. I don't think fame goes to his head and any other reasons for a downfall make no sense. When he scored yesterday the first thing he did was look for his teammates. I don't believe money or fame will affect him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 You don't think that LJ is as safe a pick? When you consider other factors such as age and skill of supporting cast, defense, etc. then LT is definitely a safer pick over LJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 The real question should be... Would you still pick LT as the first pick if he ends up on the Madden cover? I'd think twice if that were to happen. Yes, I would. After all, someone has to break the jinx, right? In all seriousness, you cannot win your league with your #1 draft pick...look at how many LT, LJ or SA (the concensus #1's) owners did not make the playoffs this season. But you can lose the season with a poor pick (injuries aside). You cannot go wrong with LT as your #1 pick. The problem is that people will expect him to produce at the same or better pace. Can you tell me if he "only" scores 22 TD's and rushes for 1,400 yards he's NOT a #1 pick? Highly unlikely that one could. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 When you consider other factors such as age and skill of supporting cast, defense, etc. then LT is definitely a safer pick over LJ. I don't get the age part. They are the same age, with much less wear on the LJ treads... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 If I get #2 pick, I won't be upset if LJ is still there after #1 has his pick. I'll be even happier if LT is still there but you can't go wrong with either of these, IMO. After these two, though, it's much more problematic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 LT isn't affected by such stuff. I don't think fame goes to his head and any other reasons for a downfall make no sense. When he scored yesterday the first thing he did was look for his teammates. I don't believe money or fame will affect him. I think his post might have something other than fame as it's theme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinL Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 the thing with LT2 is that his success has as much to do with his offense, his QB, and his TE. as long as there are no injuries or player losses then you can expect 20 TDs again next year. Rivers is fabulous at converting on 3rd down. its not like Tomlinson does it all on his own. Rivers doesn't get enough credit for SD's success. when defenses try to stack against the run, Rivers makes the throws downfield to back them off. i go Tomlinson for sure next year. and don't forget, Trent Green is getting older which doesn't help LJ and Alexander already got his contract. Pretty sure LT had a great year last year with Brees and this year with Rivers. I think it's more accurate to say that the SD QB's success has alot to do with the success of Tomlinson and the Chargers running game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 LT isn't affected by such stuff. I don't think fame goes to his head and any other reasons for a downfall make no sense. When he scored yesterday the first thing he did was look for his teammates. I don't believe money or fame will affect him. Sssssoooooo, famous NFL players don't get hurt? Hmmm. Not sure what being famous and getting hurt have to do with each other. The curse has nothing to do with letting fame go to your head...it's keeping your head attached to your body. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 this is a moranic thread. anyone who wouldn't project LT as a #1 pick next year is a complete idiot. coming forward and claiming that everyone else in the league, when you combine them, has a greater chance of unseating LT as the top fantasy scorer next year, is equally idiotic. my responding to this idiocy makes me an idiot as well. i don't quite understand your need to feel that you are on the cutting edge by coming out with such an outlandish statement, but i wish you would satisfy this urge somewhere else. people here are trying to talk seriously about fantasy football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 my responding to this idiocy makes me an idiot as well. C'mon now... its not your response here that makes you an idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 anyone who wouldn't project LT as a #1 pick next year is a complete idiot. coming forward and claiming that everyone else in the league, when you combine them, has a greater chance of unseating LT as the top fantasy scorer next year, is equally idiotic. Man Law?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 It seems really clear cut to me at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 this is a moranic thread. anyone who wouldn't project LT as a #1 pick next year is a complete idiot. coming forward and claiming that everyone else in the league, when you combine them, has a greater chance of unseating LT as the top fantasy scorer next year, is equally idiotic. my responding to this idiocy makes me an idiot as well. i don't quite understand your need to feel that you are on the cutting edge by coming out with such an outlandish statement, but i wish you would satisfy this urge somewhere else. people here are trying to talk seriously about fantasy football. I'm not not projecting LT as the number one pick - he will be in 90+%. What I'm saying is : is it possible another player is a better pick next year, just like LT was the better pick this year over LJ and SA. Also not saying every player combined will unseat him - it'll be one player, I just don't know who it is. There's no need here - just trying to get some discussion on players going. I will agree with one of your statements though - you are an idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpie Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 It's cut and dried unless you subscribe the "regression to the mean" theory. That is to say "he can possibly do it two years in a row so someone else has to be the LT of this season."....or something to that effect. Okay but who will be "that guy"? Cheatsheets are almost always a collection of the prior year's results with the anticipation history will come close to repeating itself. Well, history does not repeat itself in FF as we all know. But we can only go off of our projections and the projections of others to make an educated selection come draft day. By the law of averages, LT is "due" to falter but who is going to rise up with a greater degree of certainty? No one in my book right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 You can take whoever you'd like with the #1 pick, but at this point the clear choice is LT. Anyone else (with what we know now) would just be foolish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I don't get the age part. They are the same age, with much less wear on the LJ treads... I agree there. But I was referring to age of supporting cast, esp. O-line. Chargers o-line is certainly younger than the KC o - line. Green and Gonzo - declining in skill. Not so with Rivers and Gates. Takes more pressure off LT, adds pressure to LJ. Add it all up, and it supports LT being a safer pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 How about Peyton Manning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 It's cut and dried unless you subscribe the "regression to the mean" theory. That is to say "he can possibly do it two years in a row so someone else has to be the LT of this season."....or something to that effect. Okay but who will be "that guy"? Cheatsheets are almost always a collection of the prior year's results with the anticipation history will come close to repeating itself. Well, history does not repeat itself in FF as we all know. But we can only go off of our projections and the projections of others to make an educated selection come draft day. By the law of averages, LT is "due" to falter but who is going to rise up with a greater degree of certainty? No one in my book right now. Agree with most of this - i do think it'll be someone else, but can't see who, so even I may take LT number one as of now.....it's not like this year where i saw LJ/SA regressing as stated, and LT being the one to go up. Only one I'd even think of is LJ (SA had his year) possibly, but as of now, just think there's a lot in question in KC....then you have guys like Jacobs, maybe MJD if Taylor goes away,...all LJ like situations going into last year. maybe it's someone like that, but take a HUGE set to draft someone like that ahead of LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 If Fred Taylor retires, I'm picking MJD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 How about Peyton Manning? If you like a 6'5", 230 lb quarterback with a lazer-rocket arm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 This becomes much more interesting in an auction draft. As with Manning after his big season, LT will be way overpriced next year, so he probably won't lead my team. I'll probably shoot for LJ, "settle" for SA if I have to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolverines Fan Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 How about Peyton Manning? On a serious note here, I don't think P. Manning is the No. 1 fantasy qb going into next year. I wonder if the league has caught up to him and the Colts' offense. Right now, I'd take Brees or Palmer over him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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