crispirons Posted December 15, 2006 Share Posted December 15, 2006 I haven't been in the financial position to bet games for a few years, but my team got up for the game on Monday. They are a nontackling finesse team. Football is an emotional game and I don't see ANY Oprahing way they can get up for flying out to Oakland. The Raiders are favored for this reason and if I ever made another wager, it would be on the Raiders. i have to agree with you ram. short week for the lambs after a physical game against the bears. team rarely fares well on west coast trips, and, the line set for this game is a giveaway. the only thing that scares me is perhaps oakland is playing (losing) for the top draft pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 FYI - on the cowboys/falcons game: I posted the transcript and link to the podcast of Mora's comments here: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=191125 But whether it was a joke or not, the fans I've seen seem very upset, who knows about the players. If anything, joking or whatever, it is a distraction that the Falcons don't need right now. Good work Mora. Since this news has started to hit the net, the cowboys have since been bet from -3 to -3.5 We all know Atlanta must have the win, but Dallas still has not clinched anything yet and needs a win and some other teams to lose to get a spot after this weekends games. My system shows the slightest value on Atlanta. It does not show them getting the win, but covering by 1.5 points. But looking at it closer, the only reason why it is giving them value is #1 Dallas penalties (Dallas leads the league in this category), and #2 slightest advantage to ATL in full season stats, and #3 HFA. All other categories (8 other things I use) I am showing the advantage to Dallas. In addition looking at the full season, I like to just at the last 3 games. Also we almost have to do a Pre-Bledsoe Post-Bledsoe on the Dallas season - as I said earlier, I like dividing seasons up into mini-seasons and look at that as well. Just because ATL holds the slightest edge in full season stats, the past 3 weeks Dallas holds the edge in total offense - 382 vs 327 ypg. The last 3 games DAL has a 1.97 ypplay advantage over Atlanta despite facing defenses that rank on average 5 positions higher than those that ATL has faced. On the defensive side the last 3 games, ATL has been 2.03 ypplay better than Dal over the last 3 games, but has also faced some slightly worse ranked offenses. I look at ATL's secondary as a big liability and that is the Cowboys strength. The Cowboys rank 3rd in the league in ypcatch and ATL D ranks 26th in the league in ypcatch. Flip side, ATL ranks 1st in the league in yprush but Dallas D is 7th. Dallas has faced some high ranking rushing teams this year w/ mixed results. They have lost to Jax, Wash and NYG and beat Ten, Wash and NYG, all are in the top 10 in rushing. Of course, none have Mike Vick on their team. Dallas has not needed to scout Vick since the last they played in 2003. Since Vick came to the Falcons, they have never lost to Dallas, going 3-0. One game per season from 01-03. ATL was favored in their one home game and covered. ATL was the underdog in Dallas the next 2 games and ATL won both. Dallas is a better team now, but they still have never beaten Mike Vick. Dallas has only lost 1 game ATS in their last 5, and that was at home vs NO. Everyone saw that game. Had Dallas won, they may have been 5 point favs in ATL. So you could say that loss helped give them a little value this week. Dallas has done decent ATS on the road, going 4-3. Some other trends favoring Dallas: Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Falcons are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. ATL at home has gone 3-3. But there are some trends that favor them, including: Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. ATL had lost 4 in a row and went 0-4 ATS before beating and covering on the road in Was and TB. My system is showing a 2 point victory for the Cowboys, but if I wanted to play this game, I would not be taking Atlanta. I will see if I play on the game, but my lean now would be to Dallas. Also it would not be a strong system play, in fact it is against a weak system lean on ATL. So no big bucks on this game, but there's my analysis, take what you want from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 15, 2006 Share Posted December 15, 2006 (edited) I hit the teaser on S.F. / under, and won the straight bet on S.F. Up next the Cowboys/Falcons. I bought the half point earlier today (before the lines moved on Mora's moronic comments) and took Dallas -3 (-120). I also did a parlay Dallas -3 and over 44. Feeling pretty good about the Dallas -3, the total is dangerous with the Falcons involved, but I feel this is the way to play it. Edited December 15, 2006 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 The lines on the Cowboys/Falcons have pushed upward today at my source. Dallas is now -4 (-120) and the over under is now up to 45.5. Lots of money coming in the way I bet it. Why does that not make me feel good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Well my system is leaning towards ATL as I said earlier, but I did not take ATL or DAL. Too close to call. As for where the public is at the major sportsbooks: ATS: 74% DAL 26% ATL ML: 64% DAL 36% ATL PARLAY: 64% DAL 36% ATL I did not play ATL or DAL. But it is scary for all the Dallas backers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Couldn't help myself. Took Dal -3.5 after the 1st quarter and just took ATL +13.5 (-126). I've got more on Dallas and less on ATL. So if DAL wins by 14, I'll still be in the black. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 Couldn't help myself. Took Dal -3.5 after the 1st quarter and just took ATL +13.5 (-126). I've got more on Dallas and less on ATL. So if DAL wins by 14, I'll still be in the black. Nice hit. I'm 4-4 so far this week. Sometimes being a degenerate really pays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 I hit the teaser on S.F. / under, and won the straight bet on S.F. Up next the Cowboys/Falcons. I bought the half point earlier today (before the lines moved on Mora's moronic comments) and took Dallas -3 (-120). I also did a parlay Dallas -3 and over 44. Feeling pretty good about the Dallas -3, the total is dangerous with the Falcons involved, but I feel this is the way to play it. good call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 Nice hit. I'm 4-4 so far this week. Sometimes being a degenerate really pays. very nice fellow degenerate. always glad to hear someone having a little streak. something tells me today that alot of the favorites hit and cover. the books have been beating the players badly recently with dogs. i think the favorite players get some holiday love this weekend. in fact, i'm going to two team parlay the two biggest spreads on the board. bears -13 and ravens -11.5. i still like the jets in minny. afc/nfc angle, jets 4-2 straight up and against the spread as road warriors, and minnesota with no passing game could be trouble if they get behind. good luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 very nice fellow degenerate. always glad to hear someone having a little streak. something tells me today that alot of the favorites hit and cover. the books have been beating the players badly recently with dogs. i think the favorite players get some holiday love this weekend. in fact, i'm going to two team parlay the two biggest spreads on the board. bears -13 and ravens -11.5. i still like the jets in minny. afc/nfc angle, jets 4-2 straight up and against the spread as road warriors, and minnesota with no passing game could be trouble if they get behind. good luck all. I like your plays today. I'm also on Chicago, and I took ML on Jets. Also took a wild ML parlay on Jets, Eagles, and Bengals. A longshot to be sure, but a nice payday if it hits. May hedge the Monday night game if the first 2 hit. I also like the Titans +3, and Philly +5. Those are my plays for today.....so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Good stuff guys - congrats on those plays rattass. I was lucky to hit the formidable "middle" on the game. Today I am taking: Ravens -11 Ravens/Bears 7 team teaser Miami/Buffalo O 34 My system plays are Bears and Ravens, so I rolled w/ both. My system also likes the overs in both, but since both have such good D, I am not as sure on those. Good luck to all today and I'll be back if I make some more plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Sorry - also rolling the dice w/ Car +3 and putting just a little on some non-system totals: Den Ari O Jax Ten O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 Today's takes: Chi -13.5 NO -9.5 Philly +5 Ariz +3 (bought it to here) St. L +3 Tenn +3.5 Chi my best bet Also went favorite parlay early (NO, NE, Chi) and moneyline Parlay late (Phi, StL, Ariz) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 My system plays this week (SF, Bal, Chi, Bal O and Chi O) went 3-2. My personal plays were decent this week, winning $ on Thurs night, hitting a middle on Sat night to win $, but today has hurt to say the least. Losing my Bal bet by 1 point w/ Boller taking over at QB and somehow TB just steamrolled Chi in the 4th quarter. Weinke is 0-17 as a starter. I did not factor that out of the fact that my system showed the game as a pickem - that Car was missing its starting QB and has little heart. Congrats to you Jets backers and nice play on the Titans rat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 I like TB to cover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 crazy bears game. really surprised by the defense. even without the missing starters. i cashed a first half ticket with the bears and jets. cashed a second half ticket with the steelers and skins. lost a few other parlays but i have a nice profit thanks to ratsass. i had to come back and hedge the giants as i have a 4 teamer rolling with the eagles. i also came down on the eagles first half and the broncons 1st half. things are looking good despite the bears and ravens. thanks again rat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 I like your plays today. I'm also on Chicago, and I took ML on Jets. Also took a wild ML parlay on Jets, Eagles, and Bengals. A longshot to be sure, but a nice payday if it hits. May hedge the Monday night game if the first 2 hit. I also like the Titans +3, and Philly +5. Those are my plays for today.....so far. DING...DING...DING. Come on Bengals..... I'll push my luck. Hedging my Monday night parlay decider with a Chargers -8.5/ Indy ML parlay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 DING...DING...DING. Come on Bengals..... I'll push my luck. Hedging my Monday night parlay decider with a Chargers -8.5/ Indy ML parlay. Good move on the hedge. I am a big fan of hedging an/or getting value. Live betting offers the most value out there. Last night I had no play on the game, until I saw SD start out dominant and get up to a 7-0 lead. The live betting at Pinny jumped to SD-14. I took KC+14. Then I kept waiting, hoping KC might tie it up (so I could jump on SD) but no luck. SD took an 11 point lead into halftime. They released several different halftime lines, I could have taken SD -3 for + money and the even hedge, but I decided to take a slightly safer route, and take SD +3.5 for the 2nd half. It worked out perfect, and I got another middle. Essentially it equated to KC +14 and SD -7.5. A good way to end the day. A few tidbits for next week. I heard on the radio on the way in: Joe Gibbs, when his team is out of playoff contention, is 13-3 ATS in his last 3 games of the year. Good to know. Also, for Monday night, Ditka has been releasing his "Dog of the week" at Bodog. He has a 10-2-1 record heading into the week. This week his dog was Cincy +3.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Good move on the hedge. I am a big fan of hedging an/or getting value. Live betting offers the most value out there. Last night I had no play on the game, until I saw SD start out dominant and get up to a 7-0 lead. The live betting at Pinny jumped to SD-14. I took KC+14. Then I kept waiting, hoping KC might tie it up (so I could jump on SD) but no luck. SD took an 11 point lead into halftime. They released several different halftime lines, I could have taken SD -3 for + money and the even hedge, but I decided to take a slightly safer route, and take SD +3.5 for the 2nd half. It worked out perfect, and I got another middle. Essentially it equated to KC +14 and SD -7.5. A good way to end the day. A few tidbits for next week. I heard on the radio on the way in: Joe Gibbs, when his team is out of playoff contention, is 13-3 ATS in his last 3 games of the year. Good to know. Also, for Monday night, Ditka has been releasing his "Dog of the week" at Bodog. He has a 10-2-1 record heading into the week. This week his dog was Cincy +3.5. I like it! Between my two fantasy semi-finals that are going down to the wire, and the pending parlay on Cincy, I don't think I have ever had this much at stake for one game. It's going to be a loooooong day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 I like it! Between my two fantasy semi-finals that are going down to the wire, and the pending parlay on Cincy, I don't think I have ever had this much at stake for one game. It's going to be a loooooong day. Do you have a larger payout on the Cin ML parlay? I'm guessing you do. I'm not sure who I like yet. My system is picking a 4 point Indy win, but clearly that is not a strong play, as Indy is favored by 3. I go against my system probably 30% of the time, as I cap the games. Indy is stronger (but only slightly) in the several rating systems I use and has a HUGE advantage on 3rd downs conversions. Indy has converted on 55% vs 36% for Cincy. There is no ypg advantage for one side or the other. Indy has only 9 more rushing ypg, but gives up 67 more ypg than Cincy on the ground. In the air, Indy has put up 23 more ypg and allows 81 fewer ypg in the air. But that mainly is due to the fact that teams run more on Indy than they throw. As for ypplay in the last 3 games, Indy's offense has improved 1.09 more ypplay than Cincy's has, and both have faced similar defensive rated teams. So no real advantage there. Cincy's D has improved by 3.6 ypplay more than Indy has in the past 3 games. That means they are giving up less yardage, which would be a big advantage, but Indy has faced offenses that rank 15 spots higher than Cincy. Indy has played Philly, Ten and Jax. Cincy has played Cle, Bal and Oak. I have absolutely no system lean on this play, as my predicted result is so close to the line. But being the degenerate I am, I may post a play closer to kick, or just work on live betting. I love it when I see value in a team, and they lose the opening coin toss, the other team marches down the field and scores, the line jumps and I grab the team down by 7. It works more than it fails. If I already see some value in a team, and the pointspread jumps 7 points, it is the type of movement you will never see during the week and something hard to pass up. You just have to hope for them to come back to put points up and then you can get the middle opportunity. If they don't do it during the first half, look for a halftime line. Good luck on that Cincy play, we'll be pulling for that ml dog parlay to come through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Another relatively even week, with Arizona killing me cause of the ML parlay, and the Bears wackiness hurting. Throwing the Bears game out, my two weakest plays were Az and NO, and they both blew it. Need to start working on this as for the season I'm even, but my "better" plays are up at least 8 or so units, but I haven't been backing them as such.. Like Indy, have all week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Well, I got a cheap hedge in with the parlay, but that would only makes me even for the week. Aside from the ML parlay I also have a couple of other parlays working with Cin +3.5. So that being the case, I consider that hedge enough. I'm going for the kill. It is Christmas after all. The ML parlay pays $350. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 xM - you had some good underdog covers rat - I think you are in a good spot in terms of potential. You have the opportunity to middle several if Indy wins by 1-3 points. If it's a big Indy win, you still break even on the week. If Cin wins, you win the ML parlay as well as your others w/ Cin +3.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 Guys, sitting here I have already started to look at week 16. Some very interesing lines to say the least. I have been doing some research and I have some really helpful information to share. I'll start a thread on it tomorrow, but just letting you know that if you don't have a great read on the game tonight, sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Action plays are one thing, but no need to floss large % of your bankroll to either chase or stick it to the books unless you are honed in on the game. Hard to tell that to us degenerates, but there is plenty to look towards in the playoffs. I think that will be the theme for week 16 as well. I see some games I am really loving next week, but at the same time you need to be careful - books love to stick it to you this time of year. I've never seen a book give out Christmas presents to it's players. Be smart as always w/ your wagers, especially this time of year. Don't let the ups and downs of our gambling hobby/habit/lifestyle/profession affect you negatively and ruin the time w/ your family. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 Here are the real numbers as to where the $ is on tonight's game from a selection of books: ATS: 61% CIN 39% IND ML: 50% CIN 50% IND Parlays: 59% CIN 41% IND O/U 60% Over 40% Under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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