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Week 15 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Here are the real numbers as to where the $ is on tonight's game from a selection of books:

 

ATS:

61% CIN

39% IND

 

ML:

50% CIN

50% IND

 

 

 

Am I nuts, or is that a REALLY weird ATS and ML combination for a 3 pt game where everyone is on the dog...

 

I put in the Indy -3, and goign to wait till later to parlay Indy and the under as the total keeps creeping up

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Guys, sitting here I have already started to look at week 16. Some very interesing lines to say the least.

 

I have been doing some research and I have some really helpful information to share. I'll start a thread on it tomorrow, but just letting you know that if you don't have a great read on the game tonight, sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Action plays are one thing, but no need to floss large % of your bankroll to either chase or stick it to the books unless you are honed in on the game.

 

 

 

Be smart as always w/ your wagers, especially this time of year. Don't let the ups and downs of our gambling hobby/habit/lifestyle/profession affect you negatively and ruin the time w/ your family.

 

 

Yeah, I thought this game would be a nice back end to some parlays, but if I had to lay fresh cash on it as a stand alone bet, I would probably tread lightly. I really think the Bengals will win, but you never know when the sleeping beast may wake up.

 

Definitely agree with that last statement. I am red hot, but I would hate to drag down others taking my advice. I put myself in a position to cash in nicely this week, but didn't lay out a whole lot of cash to do it. Please play responsibly.

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i'm going to bet against the public and take the under. to answer xmrogers who thought it was weird that there was a 50/50 split bet on the moneyline and 61/39 on the spread...........reason is pretty simple. colts don't blow out teams anymore. therefore, taking the 3-3.5 presents value with cincy, and laying the juice and taking the colts moneyline presents a safe play. not too mention a juicy middle of betting both sides cinci +3.5 and indy straight up. this is honestly one of those games you could 6 or 7 point tease each side and win.

 

 

i've been researching this little bowl game alot. i think i have a great angle and play. this upcoming saturday dec. 23rd has the east carolina squad playing south florida. the bulls have been competitive with big conference schools while beating mid conference level teams. spread is south florida -4. looks like a solid bet. i'll give updates later as well.

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i'm going to bet against the public and take the under. to answer xmrogers who thought it was weird that there was a 50/50 split bet on the moneyline and 61/39 on the spread...........reason is pretty simple. colts don't blow out teams anymore. therefore, taking the 3-3.5 presents value with cincy, and laying the juice and taking the colts moneyline presents a safe play. not too mention a juicy middle of betting both sides cinci +3.5 and indy straight up. this is honestly one of those games you could 6 or 7 point tease each side and win.

i've been researching this little bowl game alot. i think i have a great angle and play. this upcoming saturday dec. 23rd has the east carolina squad playing south florida. the bulls have been competitive with big conference schools while beating mid conference level teams. spread is south florida -4. looks like a solid bet. i'll give updates later as well.

 

 

 

Hmm, interesting take on the ML vs ATS - wonder how many are really doing that (going both, hoping for the 2 pt Indy win). I always say I'm going to do such things, and I never actually do....

 

I like that game as well for USF. Got a few others I like - i never go to the college forum, but maybe should (or just post a thread abotu the "gambling on bowls" and use it till they move it)

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i've been researching this little bowl game alot. i think i have a great angle and play. this upcoming saturday dec. 23rd has the east carolina squad playing south florida. the bulls have been competitive with big conference schools while beating mid conference level teams. spread is south florida -4. looks like a solid bet. i'll give updates later as well.

 

 

I'd be interested in hearing about college bowl picks. I have not used this system for college so I'll probably be doing old fashioned picks and crunching.

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I think the Under is a good play.

 

I got it at 56 and think thats way too many points. I feel Cinci will try to keep Manning and the offense off the field as much as possible. At the same time, Indi will put in its best effort on defense (isn't say much I know) which could make some big stops, which will take some good chunks of clock.

 

Colts 13 - Bengals 7 at halftime.

 

Small play on the Colts to offset, if its a high scoring game the Colts should be able to take it. Can't underestimate Dungy.

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OK guys, here are my leans for tonight:

 

Indy and the Under.

 

The only disconcerting thing is the only time Indy beat Cincy w/ Carson and Chad is when they outscored them, 45-37. The other 3 games that Cincy won all went under.

 

We all know the trends and I don't even need to post them - just know that Cincy has plenty on their side and Indy has some on theirs as well.

 

I am NOT PLAYING these yet, but my in-game betting may reflect these. I hope Cincy wins the toss and marches down for a score. If I take a bet in game, I will try to post it.

 

The other things to know - as you know Ditka picked Cincy and he supposedly has something like a 33-1 SU record on Monday night games. Those w/ Sirius radio might be able to confirm that - that's just what I heard.

 

This is going against the public - they are on Cin and the Over.

 

Good luck to everyone tonight. Let's keep the stacking the money.

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Also, Brandon Lang is on Cincy, and he is often a good fade.

 

30 Dime:

 

This is HIS writeup:

 

BENGALS

Now, I am not a head coach or offensive coordinator in the NFL, although I should be considering the stupidity I witness on a consistent basis.

 

So with that said, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize what the key is for Cincy to win this game tonight.

 

RUN THE FOOTBALL - MOVE THE CHAINS - WIN TIME OF POSSESSION

 

KEEP INDY OFFENSE OFF FIELD - LIMIT THEIR OFFENSIVE OPPORTUNITIES

 

The Colts just gave up 375 yards on the ground in Week 12 of the NFL. Their run defense is getting worse as the season is progressing, not getting better. That is what happens when you are last in the league at stopping the run.

 

You see, teams are supposed to improve as the season wears on, not get worse. That is the case with these two teams tonight.

 

Then Bengals have gotten healthy and have been getting progressively better the last 5 weeks.

 

I actually take you back to the Charger game at home, a game they jumped out to a 28-7 lead only to get caught up in the helter skelter comeback of San Diego in the 2nd half and lost a shootout.

 

They didn't stay down about blowing that 3 touchdown lead in that game. Instead, they came away with a renewed confidence and it has shown.

 

They have reeled off 4 in a row in all dominant efforts. At New Orleans 31-16, at Cleveland 30-0, Ravens at home 13-7 and the Raiders 27-10 in a game that should have been 45-10.

 

I want you people to really understand something right now. You can't be an elite team in the NFL if you can't stop the run. It is not going to happen.

 

Indy is bottoming out and that is the exact reason why. They can't put teams away because they don't have the ball. That is the reason why in their last 5 games, they were lucky to win 2 of them.

 

They struggled to beat Buffalo 17-16, lost to Dallas 21-14, beat a Philly team that can't stop the run themselves, then lost the last 2 weeks to Tennessee and Jacksonville, both of whom did exactly as I stated above, ran the ball right down their throat and beat them.

 

Indy is in trouble folks. Big trouble and there is nothing they could have possibly have done in the last 7 days since the J'ville game to correct their problems.

 

Seriously, let me put into perspective what happens to a team that gives up 375 yards on the ground in week 12 of the NFL. You are done.

 

You are not going to all of a sudden find new players to stop it. You are not going to go down to the beach and find a Genie bottle, rub it and Barbara Eden is going to pop out and grant you 3 wishes, one of which you will use to have her help you stop the run.

 

I have been calling Indy out all year saying to anybody who would listen that if you can't stop the run, eventually that is going to destroy you. It is happening right before our very eyes.

 

Lastly, I know about the statisitic that Cincy has the worst pass defense in Pro football. Yes, that may have been true early on folks, but in the last 3 ballgames they have gotten people healthy and it has shown.

 

One more thing about Cincy's pass defense. This entire year you know how many times they have given up over 300 yards passing? Twice in 12 ballgames. Only twice.

 

So them being last is not as last as that statistic would lead you to believe.

 

I am all over Cincy tonight and don't be suprised to see them win this game outright.

 

30 Dime Bengals

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Guys, I caved just before the kick and took Indy -3.5 (the line just shifted and I didn't want to pay for the juice to get it back to -3). I also took the Under.

 

I just placed a wager on Cincy +7 - I got it for -127 and it is now -139. This game is going back and forth but very slowly. I don't know if I'll get better than +7 so I'll tak a little on it now.

 

I have more on Indy than I do on this Cincy +7. So my "middle" will be tough, as 4, 5 or 6 are the only amounts I can have Indy win by and still get the middle.

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I could not pass up even $ on this. The picks I have the most $$ on are:

 

Indy -3.5

Under 55

 

I have about 30% on

Cin +7

Over 56.5

 

Still pulling for my original wagers but will at least be still on the + side if it goes over. Middle looks less likely but you never know. Indy bettors are in really good shape!

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I could not pass up even $ on this. The picks I have the most $$ on are:

 

Indy -3.5

Under 55

 

I have about 30% on

Cin +7

Over 56.5

 

Still pulling for my original wagers but will at least be still on the + side if it goes over. Middle looks less likely but you never know. Indy bettors are in really good shape!

 

Worked out on the heavy wager - i had Indy -3 / then parlayed Indy -3 and under 55, so was happy (although really not - would have rather had Wayne catch a TD at the end to go over for fantasy reasons)

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