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Steeltown Dre

Superbowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

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rat, you still liking the over? i have an earlier parlay in with bears ml and under but i'm not really sure anymore. and thats not like me. i hate waffling, but i think today, i'm liking the over. not by much though, you know its going to be damn close to that stupid number.

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rat, you still liking the over? i have an earlier parlay in with bears ml and under but i'm not really sure anymore. and thats not like me. i hate waffling, but i think today, i'm liking the over. not by much though, you know its going to be damn close to that stupid number.

 

 

Yeah, I bought in at over 48. I'm not in love with the bet, but I am just questioning why so many people jumped on the under. I think the number is just about right, like you said. I don't see a huge value in it either way, but I would have figured the public would be split pretty evenly on it. Apparently not.

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Several respected players I know are on the Under. Not to make the decision for you - I don't have anything on the o/u. But good luck in whatever you decide. Hope everyone is getting in shape for the game - myself - got the bourbon/root beer glazed ribs in the oven for 2 hrs and the cigars are coming out now. Have a great gameday and lets make + money!

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Several respected players I know are on the Under. Not to make the decision for you - I don't have anything on the o/u. But good luck in whatever you decide. Hope everyone is getting in shape for the game - myself - got the bourbon/root beer glazed ribs in the oven for 2 hrs and the cigars are coming out now. Have a great gameday and lets make + money!

 

 

I'm hooked up pretty well. I have a nice bet on the Colts moneyline, and a bigger one on the spread. Not much at all on the over/under - just parlayed it with the Colts moneyline. I got in fairly cheap using cross-sport parlays and built up a nice little potential payday. Not huge, but enough to do the happy dance about! Good luck to all, the Wings are ready, the beer is cold. Time to get primed!

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Didn't read any of the posts here (OK, tried to ignore ratt's post above me) but I just went with the Bearszszszzzsss s/u + the over (47.5). I may hedge in the second half if they're not scoring. Which is quite possible.

 

Oh, and I took Berrian as first TD at +1100.

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Didn't read any of the posts here (OK, tried to ignore ratt's post above me) but I just went with the Bearszszszzzsss s/u + the over (47.5). I may hedge in the second half if they're not scoring. Which is quite possible.

 

 

 

 

COLT COLTS COLTS! :D

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Congrats Colts MLers as well as those who played any type of teaser. Whether you took Colts or Bears, Under and Over, any of them would have made you money last night.

 

To all those who made money on halftime plays, congrats as well. I certainly didn't expect the Colts to be down in the 1st half, so it set it up nicely.

 

I took the Colts -4.5 at the half, and I don't see why anyone else wouldn't have done that. In the first half:

 

1) The Bears got their kick return for a TD,

2) The Bears D got 2 fumble recoveries and an Int

3) Viniteri missed his first postseason FG ever

 

And Indy was still winning by 2 points! Everything that Chi needed to have happen on special teams and D happened, and they were still losing.

 

In that first half, Indy had 14 first downs to 3 of Chi, Chi was 1-5 on 3rd down conversions while Indy was 5-10, and Indy only had to punt 2 times. I saw no reason that would change in the 2nd half, and if the Bears didn't get points on special teams, they were in serious trouble in the 2nd half.

 

So I threw down big on Indy -4.5 at the half. Essentially "buying back" everything I had put on the Bears +7.5 and ML.

 

I ended the season w/ another winning day - would have won more if I didn't try for the middle on the Bears, but still came out with a nice chunk, especially w/ winning the ML and the halftime play.

 

I wanted to take live action on the Colts when they were down 14-6, but I didn't get my bet in, so I had to wait for the halftime line.

 

I would have made money even w/o the halftime wager, but felt given what I saw in the first half, it was the right play to make.

 

Some key statistical areas I felt the Bears needed badly in order to win the game:

 

1. Win the turnover battle - Chi was accustomed to winning in this area to get their D off the field, keep points off the other team's scoreboard, and give themseves great field position. They lost this and lost it badly 3-5, and 1 Int lead to 7 points on the board, causing them to lose the cover in the game.

 

2. Get great field position - they got this and they even got their 7 from Hester's return. Only 1 time in the first 3 quarters did Chi start a drive from inside their 20. Their avg starting field position on their first 9 drives, which was through the first 3 quarters, was their 37 yard line.

 

3. Hold Manning's 3rd down conversions to the high 30s. I felt this would be a huge key - Chi was accustomed to holding opponents to holding teams to the low 30s, getting off the field and getting their offense the ball w/ good field position. Indy was converting in the low 50s, and sustaining long drives. In this game, Chi's D could not get off the field. Indy converted on 44% of their 3rd downs in the game, and 50% in the 1st half. Between this and the turnovers, Chi lost the game.

 

And the biggest thing overall - I felt based on Rex's play, and I studied how he did in the various situations, if the Bears were down, they would be in serious trouble. Which is what led me strongly to play the halftime bet.

 

I felt w/ Indy getting the ball first in the 2nd half, and already dominating statistically the 1st half despite the turnovers and allowing a special teams TD, that Chi would fall behind and the weight would sit on Rex's shoulders to bring them back.

 

I found that Rex was:

 

When the Bears are losing, his rating of 49.6 is much lower than when they are tied, or when they have the lead (102.9)

In the 2nd half, his rating of 67.2 is lower than his 1st half rating.

On 3rd down, his rating of 66.4 is lower than on first or second down.

And his WORST situational rating is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 47.3.

 

Well, in the first half playing w/ the lead, he was 6-8 for 32 yards, 1 TD and 0 Ints. That is a passer rating of 120.8, believe it or not. (Manning was his consistent self, at 84.3)

 

In the second half, playing from behind, Rex was 14-20 for 122 yards, 0 TDs and 2 Ints, a passer rating of 46.25. Which is consistent w/ his season avg of 49.6 when they are losing, and his 47.3 on 3rd and long.

 

So that's the recap of the Superbowl from my betting perspective.

 

And that wraps up another successful season. I started this thread I think the last couple weeks of the season and into the playoffs. Went 14-3 in terms of winning/losing days down the stretch. And the Superbowl was my 11th straight "Primetime" matchup in a row that I won $ on.

 

Thanks to many of you who contributed your input, advice, and successful picks to this thread each week. It was educational to hear your views and a lot of fun. Hope everyone has a relaxing off season - I'll work more on my systems for next year, and enjoy some time off. Good luck this summer and let's get em again next season!

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I'm hooked up pretty well. I have a nice bet on the Colts moneyline, and a bigger one on the spread. Not much at all on the over/under - just parlayed it with the Colts moneyline. I got in fairly cheap using cross-sport parlays and built up a nice little potential payday. Not huge, but enough to do the happy dance about! Good luck to all, the Wings are ready, the beer is cold. Time to get primed!

 

 

:D

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The Colts covered but still had a nice day. Thanks again to Dre and everyone else on this thread :D

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The Colts covered but still had a nice day. Thanks again to Dre and everyone else on this thread :D

 

 

No problem Gdawg - glad you had a winning day - it would have been nicer to have not made the plays on the Bears, but at least you didn't have to sweat out the 2nd half. Looking back you can always say you could have won more if you only did (blank).

 

But think if the Colts DB does not return that int for a TD. We may have had that precious middle and really killed.

 

I don't like to play "what if", the bottom line is you came out in the + money and that's what really matters.

 

Hope to see you again next year.

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spoken like a man who has a good comprehension of what is going on with this game. honestly, nobody probably believes it besides me and bears homers, but this game has the possibility of blow out too. and not by the team favored. could easily happen that the bears are up by 14+ in the second half of this game.

 

regardless of outcome, the bears had an outstanding yr, i had a good yr gambling, and the outcome of this game won't change any of that for me. would be nice though to be world champs again.

 

 

They started out strong at least. And it was still close in the 4th. I wish Rex didn't throw that pick 6, as I am sure you did as well. But the fact is, the Bears had a great season, and if you had a good year gambling, you both finished on top and can look forward to next season. Thanks for your contributions.

 

You and rattass provided some solid insights to close out the season. Good job guys.

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No problem Gdawg - glad you had a winning day - it would have been nicer to have not made the plays on the Bears, but at least you didn't have to sweat out the 2nd half. Looking back you can always say you could have won more if you only did (blank).

 

But think if the Colts DB does not return that int for a TD. We may have had that precious middle and really killed.

 

I don't like to play "what if", the bottom line is you came out in the + money and that's what really matters.

 

Hope to see you again next year.

 

 

Thanks Dre, I will be around next year no doubt! I thought we had a good shot at that middle, but as you said when you make some cash you can't complain too much :bash:

 

I also made a couple prop bets (which I would normally NEVER do, but I wanted a little more action) and won them both too, they helped ease the sting of a Colt's cover :D

 

Looking forward to next year. Now it's time for me to concentrate on college hoops :D

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That was a nice way to close out another successful year of NFL gaming. I hate losing on the Superbowl, very glad that I came around to the right way of thinking about this game.

 

Also I was very pleased that the officials had no bearing on the outcome of the game. It was settled on the field as it should be, so in that regard it was a very satisfying Superbowl. Not a particularly pretty one, but at least it was decided by the players instead of the zebras.

 

I thought I was cooked on the side bet when Hester ran back that opening kickoff, things like that usually spell big trouble, but kudos to the Colts for overcoming that opening punch in the mouth.

 

Congrats to Dre and the rest of you that were on the right side of this one. My condolences to crispiron, Darin3, and the rest of the Bears crowd. This game could have easily slid in under the spread, so I'm not going to pound my chest about being on the right side. Every gambler needs some luck. And after washing out through most of the playoffs, I finally got some when it counted most. I recouped all my playoff losses and still came out with a modest profit for the postseason. And when added to my profits for the regular season, all in all another satisfying season of NFL betting. Thanks to all that contributed on these threads, especially Dre and his relentless number crunching.

 

Let's keep this weekly thread going next season and work together to stick it to the man again!!!

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I thought that I had seen it all in gambling and today I add a new one to the list..Quick backround first..Ever since my oldest daughter was 1 I would put a coin in her hand superbowl sunday and let her throw it..Whatever it lands on I bet..Going into this year she was 4-0..Yesterday AM she flips it for me ..Bingo heads 5-0..This year I decide to pound it. Although its pot luck I decide to ride the karma and max it out..She nails it..5-0 in her lifetime..I go to check my figures this morning and im off..I finally had to physically check each bet..Between me and my brother being on my number there was a page full..I realize my coin toss isnt in..I call the office and the guy says If you read the fine print under the coin toss bet option it said if a commemorative coin was used all bets are void..I had printed all the props so I know for a fact that isnt something they added after the flip..It was there but I really didnt pay attention to it..Long story short..although this Commemorative coin had a heads and a tails like any other coin I am SOL. :D

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That was a nice way to close out another successful year of NFL gaming. I hate losing on the Superbowl, very glad that I came around to the right way of thinking about this game.

 

Also I was very pleased that the officials had no bearing on the outcome of the game. It was settled on the field as it should be, so in that regard it was a very satisfying Superbowl. Not a particularly pretty one, but at least it was decided by the players instead of the zebras.

 

I thought I was cooked on the side bet when Hester ran back that opening kickoff, things like that usually spell big trouble, but kudos to the Colts for overcoming that opening punch in the mouth.

 

Congrats to Dre and the rest of you that were on the right side of this one. My condolences to crispiron, Darin3, and the rest of the Bears crowd. This game could have easily slid in under the spread, so I'm not going to pound my chest about being on the right side. Every gambler needs some luck. And after washing out through most of the playoffs, I finally got some when it counted most. I recouped all my playoff losses and still came out with a modest profit for the postseason. And when added to my profits for the regular season, all in all another satisfying season of NFL betting. Thanks to all that contributed on these threads, especially Dre and his relentless number crunching.

 

Let's keep this weekly thread going next season and work together to stick it to the man again!!!

 

 

Congrats rattsass, way to finish off! Yes, by all means lets keep this thing going next year! I learned quite a bit and really enjoyed reading these threads very much :D

Edited by Gdawg

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I thought that I had seen it all in gambling and today I add a new one to the list..Quick backround first..Ever since my oldest daughter was 1 I would put a coin in her hand superbowl sunday and let her throw it..Whatever it lands on I bet..Going into this year she was 4-0..Yesterday AM she flips it for me ..Bingo heads 5-0..This year I decide to pound it. Although its pot luck I decide to ride the karma and max it out..She nails it..5-0 in her lifetime..I go to check my figures this morning and im off..I finally had to physically check each bet..Between me and my brother being on my number there was a page full..I realize my coin toss isnt in..I call the office and the guy says If you read the fine print under the coin toss bet option it said if a commemorative coin was used all bets are void..I had printed all the props so I know for a fact that isnt something they added after the flip..It was there but I really didnt pay attention to it..Long story short..although this Commemorative coin had a heads and a tails like any other coin I am SOL. :D

 

 

There are some shaky props, but this is just a hose job. If they added it after your bet, you should get your $$. Also, don't they always use a commemorative coin? I don't think they are out there flipping a nickel.

 

Here is the coin they used: http://www.nflshop.com/product/index.jsp?p...rentPage=family

 

And here are all the other coins they have used over the years:

 

http://www.nflshop.com/product/index.jsp?p...rentPage=search

 

Those are not just "gold coins" - they have those for the SBs also. These are actual "Flip Coins", whatever that means, but I assume they are duplicates of the one used for the coin flip. Therefore every Super Bowl uses a commemorative coin.

 

My guess is they had too many people betting heads and they tried to come up w/ some BS. What book is it?

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Let's keep this weekly thread going next season and work together to stick it to the man again!!!

 

Thanks rattsass. I look forward to another profitable season starting in September!

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There are some shaky props, but this is just a hose job. If they added it after your bet, you should get your $$. Also, don't they always use a commemorative coin? I don't think they are out there flipping a nickel.

 

Here is the coin they used: http://www.nflshop.com/product/index.jsp?p...rentPage=family

 

And here are all the other coins they have used over the years:

 

http://www.nflshop.com/product/index.jsp?p...rentPage=search

 

Those are not just "gold coins" - they have those for the SBs also. These are actual "Flip Coins", whatever that means, but I assume they are duplicates of the one used for the coin flip. Therefore every Super Bowl uses a commemorative coin.

 

My guess is they had too many people betting heads and they tried to come up w/ some BS. What book is it?

 

 

Its a local office in NY that goes through a private website..It was there under the prop before the coin was flipped.I put it in sunday morning and I have all the props printed from the middle of last week..I cant say it didnt say that but its still shaky..Im looking at it right now and the exact wording is "If a special coin is used all wagers will be considered as of no action " ridiculous

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i'd be pssst about that whomper. thats why you have to go with a reputable off shore. they would never try pulling that crap.

 

 

great yr guys.....and i look forward to making more money next yr.

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Sqeaked by on the 1/2 with Bear's +4. Should of have lost that one as Vinetarri just pulled the FG to the left. Colt's 1/2 bettors had some bad luck there.

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I wanted to share one thing:

 

For those who wanted to see how this year compared to others in terms of the number of favs that covered and the number of dogs that covered.

 

The most games ever covered by a dog in a season was 137 games (dating back to 1989 There have only been 2 seasons where 137 dogs covered. This season and 2002.

 

And this follows last season, where we had 142 favs cover, the most since 1989, and blowing away the 2nd most which was 129.

 

So for those people who entered this season expecting things to go the way of the fav, like they did in 05, they were very disappointed.

 

Last year was a major public year. This year went back to the sharps and the books.

 

season ATS

2006 110-137-6 (-1.9)

2005 142-103-10 (2.5)

2004 117-125-7 (-0.2)

2003 129-118-7 (1.6)

2002 108-137-4 (-0.7)

2001 114-125-7 (-0.2)

2000 114-125-3 (0.1)

1999 106-122-15 (-0.3)

1998 119-106-13 (1.3)

1997 100-121-13 (-1.1)

1996 113-119-2 (-0.2)

1995 107-123-6 (-1.3)

1994 96-114-8 (-1.0)

1993 97-118-7 (-1.4)

1992 107-110-2 (-0.7)

1991 111-105-6 (1.0)

1990 114-99-5 (1.3)

1989 103-113-4 (0.2)

 

But, in terms of the % of games covered by dogs, it was 55%. The highest it ever has been was in 02 at 56%. But there have been other times when it was 55%, back in 97 and 93:

 

season % of Dogs who Covered

2006 55%

2005 42%

2004 52%

2003 48%

2002 56%

2001 52%

2000 52%

1999 54%

1998 47%

1997 55%

1996 51%

1995 53%

1994 54%

1993 55%

1992 51%

1991 49%

1990 46%

1989 52%

 

So you can really see the 42% drop from the year before up to 55% this year was pretty huge. There has never been a swing that large. It's been pretty volitile the last couple of years, we will see what happens next season.

 

season % Increase/Decrease in Dogs that Covered from prior year

2006 13%

2005 -10%

2004 4%

2003 -8%

2002 4%

2001 0%

2000 -1%

1999 6%

1998 -8%

1997 3%

1996 -2%

1995 -1%

1994 -1%

1993 4%

1992 2%

1991 2%

1990 -6%

1989 -

Edited by Steeltown Dre

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I thought that I had seen it all in gambling and today I add a new one to the list..Quick backround first..Ever since my oldest daughter was 1 I would put a coin in her hand superbowl sunday and let her throw it..Whatever it lands on I bet..Going into this year she was 4-0..Yesterday AM she flips it for me ..Bingo heads 5-0..This year I decide to pound it. Although its pot luck I decide to ride the karma and max it out..She nails it..5-0 in her lifetime..I go to check my figures this morning and im off..I finally had to physically check each bet..Between me and my brother being on my number there was a page full..I realize my coin toss isnt in..I call the office and the guy says If you read the fine print under the coin toss bet option it said if a commemorative coin was used all bets are void..I had printed all the props so I know for a fact that isnt something they added after the flip..It was there but I really didnt pay attention to it..Long story short..although this Commemorative coin had a heads and a tails like any other coin I am SOL. :D

 

THAT is bullSega!!! :D

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