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darin3

Players you'll avoid in '07

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I know the off-season is only a week old, but as a dynasty owner and football nut, I'm always thinking fantasy football. Reading over the post with John Clayton's team assessments got me thinking a little bit about my teams, drafts and football in general. I know it's early, and there'll be plenty of off-season movement (and of course the draft), but I thought it'd be interesting to discuss some players that you are going to completely avoid next season. When I start planning for future drafts, I always start with running backs. So let's start there.

 

Two guys that I have penciled in as "avoids" are:

 

Thomas Jones: I love my Bears but I think the RB situation is going to be even more muddled next year, assuming Jones is in navy/orange next season. The 2-headed RB monster of Rhodes and Addai worked well for the Colts this season, IMO. So why wouldn't the Bears, a run-first team to begin with, keep their two solid backs? Benson will probably see more action in 2007, which totally destroys Jones' value. Benson, however, may be a nice sleeper pick as a fantasy backup with upside. Unfortunately, though (sort of like this season), everyone will know this and he may go too early in drafts. That said, I will be avoiding Jones next season.

 

Warrick Dunn: Clayton mentioned Dunn's age (32) and that just sounded the alarm for me. Dunn's already a "smallish" back with some injury concerns. Add in the new coaching regime, who's already giving Vick more "flexibility" in the offense, and I personally think this adds up to a poor season for Dunn. The wicked fast Jerious Norwood is waiting in the wings to boot. Some other numbers: Dunn only had 4 TDs this past season. That sucks. That's not even #2 fantasy RB numbers. He only had 22 receptions. He hasn't been the "dual threat" back since 2002. He's still a 1,000+ yard back, but that's just not good enough these days.

 

So, any RBs you are looking to avoid in 2007?

Edited by darin3

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Fred Taylor. Not because he's a bad back or anything, just that he'll probably be injured and JAX are thinking of a three-headed monster next year.

 

Tiki Barber is going to drop off a lot next year, I think. :D

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Warrick Dunn: Clayton mentioned Dunn's age (32) and that just sounded the alarm for me. Dunn's already a "smallish" back with some injury concerns. Add in the new coaching regime, who's already giving Vick more "flexibility" in the offense, and I personally think this adds up to a poor season for Dunn. The wicked fast Jerious Norwood is waiting in the wings to boot. Some other numbers: Dunn only had 4 TDs this past season. That sucks. That's not even #2 fantasy RB numbers. He only had 22 receptions. He hasn't been the "dual threat" back since 2002. He's still a 1,000+ yard back, but that's just not good enough these days.

 

The new head coach wants to go to a power running game which hurts both Dunn and Norwood.

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The new head coach wants to go to a power running game which hurts both Dunn and Norwood.

 

Yeah, where's T.J. Duckett when you need him? :D

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i'm not sure if there is a back i'll just avoid, but right now there are a lot of rb situations i don't like... but i am sure they will resolve themselves as we approach july/aug

 

dal

nyg

was

gb

tb

car

atl

jets

hou

cle

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i'm not sure if there is a back i'll just avoid, but right now there are a lot of rb situations i don't like... but i am sure they will resolve themselves as we approach july/aug

 

dal

nyg

was

gb

tb

car

atl

jets

hou

cle

 

I hear ya.

 

In Dallas, it'll be interesting, that's for sure. Can Jason Garrett actually call plays? Barber is the more talented back, IMO. He'll make a nice sleeper pick again as the TD vulture.

 

The Giant situation is going to change. I just don't see Jacobs as the every-down back. Too early to say this situation is a total-avoid one.

 

I don't know about Washington. Portis is a stud and can flourish in that system. Betts is a stud waiting to happen, too. But with Portis healthy, Betts is just a backup.

 

Green Bay is going to draft a RB. Most likely Lynch. Green is probably gone. Hard to really evaluate their situation until the draft is done.

 

I think Caddy is going to be totally undervalued in '07. I won't avoid him. In fact, I'll probably target him as a nice #2 fantasy RB with #1 potential, if he slips.

 

Carolina is definitely a situation to avoid. Foster's still fragile and Williams has talent.

 

Atlanta, yup.

 

The Jets are going to have a new starting RB in '07. Can't say this is a situation to avoid until the draft is done.

 

Houston, yup. A mess. Unless a clear-cut starter is named, that's really an iffy situation.

 

Cleveland, like many teams you've listed, is going to have a new starting RB in '07. Could it be Adrian Peterson? If so, I would certainly not avoid him.

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Depending on what Kiffin can do this offseason with QB/WR/OL I would add Lamont to the "caution" list...

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Possible downswing:

 

Parker, PIT - new offensive scheme leaning towards the pass?

Dunn, TB - power running attack instead of one-cut OL

LJ, KC - number of carries will regress to the mean

LT, SD - career year, back towards the pack in 07

FTaylor/MJD/GJones, JAC - 3 headed monster looms

Portis/Betts, WAS - two backs getting paid starter level money

KJones, DET - injury severity is unknown at this time

CTaylor/Moore, MIN - breaking in the new QB means 8 in the box

McAllister/Bush, NO - had a dreamy year, back to the norm?

 

 

Possible upswing:

 

Jordan, OAK - can it really be as bad as last year?

James, ARI - more running in the desert with the PIT coaching crew in town

Rudi, CIN - it was a down year for the Cincy offense in '06

Droughns, CLE - if no RB is drafted, gains his injured OL back from preseason '06

Addai, IND - if Rhodes is not signed or if they do not sign/draft another

Henry/White, TEN - Titans got better as the year progressed, Henry must restructure.

Westbrook, PHI - gets McNabb back, loses Stallworth?

Foster/DWilliams, CAR - assuming Delhomme reverts back to a competent QB

Caddy, TB - he has to score more in 07, right? Pick a QB and stick with it.

SJackson, STL - gets Pace back.

Alexander, SEA - a year for the new OL to gel and injury free?

McGahee, BUF - has to score more as well. Losman might get better

Gore, SF - can score more TDs. Smith gets TE Davis healthy and maybe an added WR threat.

 

 

The "who the heck knows" RBBC group:

 

JJones/Barber, DAL - no clue how the former DC will use these guys

Dillon/Maroney, NE - would still be an effective duo

TJones/Benson, CHI - settle on one back and that guy could be top 10

RBrown/Williams, MIA - could be good with Cameron calling the plays

 

 

Wait until after the draft to see what happens:

Denver

Baltimore

Houston

NY Jets

NY Giants

Green Bay

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Edge..He killed me last year and he is too generous with pulling himself out at the goal line

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i'm not sure if there is a back i'll just avoid, but right now there are a lot of rb situations i don't like... but i am sure they will resolve themselves as we approach july/aug

 

dal

nyg

was

gb

tb

car

atl

jets

hou

cle

 

 

Good point, and the draft will add teams to the list likely.

Depending on what Kiffin can do this offseason with QB/WR/OL I would add Lamont to the "caution" list...

 

Always on my list.

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Possible downswing:

 

Dunn, TB - power running attack instead of one-cut OL

 

 

Where does he play? :D

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nobody's suggested avoiding denver yet? :D

 

maybe that much is just assumed. :D

 

 

:bash:

 

I'll be avoiding Tatum Bell like the plague. The guy now has been given 3 years to the "The Guy" in DEN, and he has failed miserably each time. Between injuries, his light-weight running style, and his attitude, he just isn't worth the value that some will put on him - most probably T Bell owners.

 

Cadillac Williams is another RB I'll stay away from, though his value finally seems to be dropping where it belongs - well down into the #2 RB area. TB is still a mess on O, and unless they pick up a decent FA QB and get some significant O-line help in the draft and/or FA, it figures to stay that way.

 

The MIA Ricky "Ganja" Williams bears close scrutiny and could really adversely affect R Brown, who is a solid mid-1st round RB.

 

Jamal Lewis looks like his career is well in its downhill side.

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Possible downswing:

 

 

LT, SD - career year, back towards the pack in 07

 

 

While it's hardly a stretch to imply that LT won't break 30TDs again, I think he's still safely off the "Players to avoid in 07" list. The fact that there are precious few RBs that are even #1 backs on their team makes this guy an even better pick.

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Possible downswing:

LT, SD - career year, back towards the pack in 07

 

 

You know, one of these year's that's going to be true. :D

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The new head coach wants to go to a power running game which hurts both Dunn and Norwood.

 

it hurts Dunn but how it affects Norwood is still up in the air.

 

while Norwood doesn't have Michael Bush size, he's still just a hair under 6' and over 200lbs. Dunn is generously listed at 5'9"/180.

 

I believe Norwood ran in a zone scheme at Miss State and obviously again in Atlanta so the only real ifs are... 1) can he run in a system other than zone, 2) can he stay healthy (he had a minor nagging knee injury midseason), and 3) can he improve at pass blocking.

 

many rookie RBs struggle with the above issues in their first season. if Norwood lands the starting gig, he could be a major FF steal.

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Will avoid Caddy like the plague (probably Droughns and Jordan too). Some of the others I may still rank differently, but not necessarily avoid.

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Barry Sanders

Emmitt Smith

Icky Woods

Blair Thomas

William Green

 

I'm high on Fred Lane this year though. :D

Edited by CaP'N GRuNGe

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:D

 

Ya' think?

 

 

 

Well I gambled on D Davis last yr, and it bit me in the ass. Lesson learned on these Rosie O'Donnell.

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While I agree with some of these, I disagree with some of the ones that are "avoid" because they had a down year this year. Prime example is Edge - think he's a top 5 next year, and can be had much later.

 

Caddy is another (maybe - the mood here in Tampa about the Bucs is so weird, it's hard to say), but I think while he's not a top 5, he has a good shot to be a top 10.

 

I love Westbrook next year - showed what he can do when being THE man at the end of the year, and I think that'll flow right into next year.

 

I'm goign to say SJax to avoid - why would I say such a stupid thing you ask? Cause I made a dumb dumb trade where I gave him up in week 10 this year and that eventually meant the diff between 1st and 3rd (and between $3k and $500).....and I'd like to say next year "yea, i was just a year early on making that trade" :D

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Barry Sanders

Emmitt Smith

Icky Woods

Blair Thomas

William Green

 

I'm high on Fred Lane this year though. :D

 

Fred Lane does too many jumping jacks for me :D

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I won't specifically avoid any starting RB, or for that matter any member of a RBBC. If they are available where I feel comfortable drafting them, then I'll draft them. There are several I would not draft in the first round or 2nd round, but none I'm going to avoid all together.

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