detlef Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 OK, so plenty saw Brady Quinn as a top 10 talent this year. I, for one, was not completely sold on him but not so much that I'd think anyone would be reaching terribly by taking him that high. So, if he was worth using a top 5-10 pick this year, why isn't he worth using what may be a top 5-10 next year? If they hadn't gotten him, they'd be back into the same position next year, looking to spend a high 1st round pick on next year's version of him. Now at least they already have the guy and he'll have a year under his belt in the pros by this time next year. I suppose they could have gone with Staton or Edwards, or any of the other 2nd tier guys, but that depends on your evaluation of them. I just don't see the big deal. That doesn't take away the fact that Dallas made out great by trading the pick. It's just an example of a win-win situation which is basis of every good trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 (edited) Actually, a top 5-10 pick this year is worth more than a top 5-10 pick next year. The additional year of experience increases the value of this year's pick. Edited April 30, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleeper43 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Actually, a top 5-10 pick this year is worth more than a top 5-10 pick next year. The additional year of experience increases the value of this year's pick. Really, it comes down to they GAVE away an early round 2 this year for the privledge of using thier own Round 1 in 08 a year early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 i've never seen a formulaic breakdown of the present value of future picks (i.e., a version of "the chart" that includes future years). but my sense is, teams tend to value a future pick at least 25% or so less than an equivalent present pick. of course, the present value of cleveland's 2008 first round pick depends entirely on how you expect cleveland to do this year. if the browns go .500 or better, they really made out on this deal. if they suck again, dallas reaps a hugh reward, but as others have said, cleveland would still just be getting next year's top 5 pick this year, so it's really a good deal for them either way. on balance, i agree with detlef, it's an example of a really good trade for both teams, made possible by a blue-chip prospect still being on the board at 22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbmcdonald Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 OK, so plenty saw Brady Quinn as a top 10 talent this year. I, for one, was not completely sold on him but not so much that I'd think anyone would be reaching terribly by taking him that high. So, if he was worth using a top 5-10 pick this year, why isn't he worth using what may be a top 5-10 next year? If they hadn't gotten him, they'd be back into the same position next year, looking to spend a high 1st round pick on next year's version of him. Now at least they already have the guy and he'll have a year under his belt in the pros by this time next year. I suppose they could have gone with Staton or Edwards, or any of the other 2nd tier guys, but that depends on your evaluation of them. I just don't see the big deal. That doesn't take away the fact that Dallas made out great by trading the pick. It's just an example of a win-win situation which is basis of every good trade. I do not think it was a bad deal for CLE, I think it was a very good deal for CLE. However, it was a deal of the decade for DAL. In trading draft picks, the value on one side, is not determend by the lack of value on the other side. The net effect for DAL was they traded a 3 & 5 for a #1 in 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebartender Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 I do not think it was a bad deal for CLE, I think it was a very good deal for CLE. However, it was a deal of the decade for DAL. In trading draft picks, the value on one side, is not determend by the lack of value on the other side. The net effect for DAL was they traded a 3 & 5 for a #1 in 2008. And by the looks of CLE schedule it should be a top 5 pick for Dallas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 win / win for both teams. Cleveland starts their rebuild 1 yr earlier, and Quinn iw better than next yrs top QB. Brohm. So I think this worked out well for both teams. Dallas wants McFadden, and with 2 1st rounders next yr, one likely top 3-5, they should be able to secure him. Though I think dallas needs to address WR next yr for sure. TO and Glenn are good for maybe 2 more solid yrs, then a steep decline should take place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gros Membres! Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Plus, due to Quinn being picked at #22 the Browns get a great prospect/face of the franchise/etc for much, much less than they'd have to pay their guy in the 1-5 slots next year. Cap-wise it also makes a lot of sense for building a franchise and I hope they'll start to have some good luck with injuries this year. Hey, does anyone have any word on LeCharles Bentley? If he comes back that o-line is looking solid, not that Jamal could do anything with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted April 30, 2007 Share Posted April 30, 2007 Plus, due to Quinn being picked at #22 the Browns get a great prospect/face of the franchise/etc for much, much less than they'd have to pay their guy in the 1-5 slots next year. Cap-wise it also makes a lot of sense for building a franchise and I hope they'll start to have some good luck with injuries this year. Hey, does anyone have any word on LeCharles Bentley? If he comes back that o-line is looking solid, not that Jamal could do anything with it. Hes out another season, and may never play again. CLE is going to IR him, hoping he can return next yr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I think Quinn is going to be a very good quarterback. I've already stated the did more with a lot less around him. The Browns have there quarterback and left tackle situation figured out for the next ten years. The left side of the line is solid with Thomas and Steinbach, KW2, Edwards, and Jerevicious is pretty good. Jamal is an upgrade over Droughns. If Wright can come in from day one, this will further strenghten there secondary which still needs a lot of help. I think this was a great draft for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 OK, so plenty saw Brady Quinn as a top 10 talent this year. I, for one, was not completely sold on him but not so much that I'd think anyone would be reaching terribly by taking him that high. So, if he was worth using a top 5-10 pick this year, why isn't he worth using what may be a top 5-10 next year? If they hadn't gotten him, they'd be back into the same position next year, looking to spend a high 1st round pick on next year's version of him. Now at least they already have the guy and he'll have a year under his belt in the pros by this time next year. I suppose they could have gone with Staton or Edwards, or any of the other 2nd tier guys, but that depends on your evaluation of them. I just don't see the big deal. That doesn't take away the fact that Dallas made out great by trading the pick. It's just an example of a win-win situation which is basis of every good trade. Actually I posted a shortened version of what you said in another thread and I believe that the extra year of experience they get with Quinn is well worth the 2nd round pick. I think the trade really worked out well for both teams & IMO they both got very lucky Miami passed on him. That's not saying Quinn will be a star, but the value was definitely there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Regardless of how Quinn turns out, the Browns absolutely did the right thing in the first round. They needed to take a gamble on another highly-regarded QB prospect and they're going to several million dollars less because he dropped all the way to 22. AND they're addressing their horrible O-line by getting the best O-lineman in the draft and their possible LT for several years to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Overall I really like what the Browns did in the draft. They gambled and won as far as draft strategy goes, and I always admire that. They got their rock on the offensive line, and still managed to get the quarterback they wanted. I am not sold on Quinn, but if they really think he is a franchise guy, then the trade makes sense for them. I applaud their efforts, though not convinced it will turn the franchise around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraftykraft Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I don't know if Brady Quinn is going to be a great NFL QB, but I do have to say that it took guts to come out and talk to ESPN on nationwide (I saw that interview) when he was being shown up in the draft. He looked pretty poised despite what must have been a gut-wrenching experience for him. Maybe he will show the same poise in the pocket in future years... Brady Quinn--this year's Matt Leinart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 That is some faulty logic. He will have one more year of experience and his career will also be one year closer to being over. I don't see having a player for the years 2007-2018 as being any better than having a player 2008-2019 or 2012-2023. It is instant gratification and impatience that causes a pick from this year to have more value than a pick from next year. This is no different than using a credit card or going to the check store. A dollar today is worth the same as a dollar next week (assuming there is no inflation, and I don't see the draft as having been affected by any type of inflation, in fact, teams probably have valued picks more as the years have gone on). However, the credit card company and check store charge a hefty premium to have that dollar a week early. well, you may view it as "faulty logic", but every NFL team in the league values a pick this year significantly more than the same pick next year. this fact is reflected in every trade involving future draft picks that ever goes down in the NFL. so i'm thinking maybe it's YOUR logic that's a bit faulty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleeper43 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Hes out another season, and may never play again. CLE is going to IR him, hoping he can return next yr. This is interesting, you sound pretty sure about that. Are you basing it off of any NEW information or are you basing it off of the information that came about in EARLY February that said he MIGHT have to have another surgery and IF he did he would be IRed in 2007 and his career might be in jeopardy? The following article is being posted all over the net about Bentley and just surfaced around day 1 of the draft. I am hoping its true. LeCharles Bentley was in Columbus working out at Sports Connection, and he told people there that he will be back to partake in the team's mini-camp. Maybe not in May, but in June. Looking over him, one of the guys asked is he had lost weight. He said no, that he is in the best shape of his life. He currently weighs 326#, he's as strong as ever, and his patella tendon is perfectly fine. It was the staph infection that set him back. Bentley said, "if I never play again that's fine, but I will play this season." Don't care much for that last line, but I seriously doubt he would force playing this year if he knew it would be the end of the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theprofessor Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 win / win for both teams. Cleveland starts their rebuild 1 yr earlier, and Quinn iw better than next yrs top QB. Brohm. So I think this worked out well for both teams. Dallas wants McFadden, and with 2 1st rounders next yr, one likely top 3-5, they should be able to secure him. Though I think dallas needs to address WR next yr for sure. TO and Glenn are good for maybe 2 more solid yrs, then a steep decline should take place. This will be Glenn's last year and with the fragile and sometimes volatile personality of T.O. there's no long term tenure guarantee with him. Major mistake by Jerry and his boys to not address this situation in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I agree that team's TREAT the pick as more valuable, but that doesn't mean it ACTUALLY is more valuable :shakinghead: Obviously no one is going to convince you that your argument doesn't hold much merit. One year of experience - especially with a top talent - at positions like QB, WR, TE, & CB are huge in the NFL. Go on thinking what you like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted May 1, 2007 Author Share Posted May 1, 2007 (edited) I agree that team's TREAT the pick as more valuable, but that doesn't mean it ACTUALLY is more valuable (God, caps are so rude). I would even agree with YOUR assessment that teams treat the pick as if it's worth about 25% more. But the Browns most likely will pay far more than 25%, as we know the trade right now. If the Browns go deep into the playoffs, the trade will amount to paying about 25% interest according to the Draft Value Chart. If the Browns have the top pick in next years draft, the trade will amount to paying about 500% interest according to the Draft Value Chart, as we know the trade right now. And the pick certainly isn't more valuable because the player has one more year of experience. What makes it more or less valuable is the strength of each draft and the player being traded for. Every person who goes into the check store and pays 10% interest on a one-week loan obviously values 90% of the money on that day more than 100% a week later. But that doesn't mean the money is ACTUALLY worth 10% more or that they aren't dingbats. It just means people make poor decisions for instant gratification or they have a really, really good reason to pay the interest. Most do it for instant gratification (or the previous weekend's instant gratifiction, which might or might not have been worth it, depending on how good the girl looked). Obviously, if the Browns think that Quinn was worth a top-10 pick and will be a stud quarterback, then the trade can still be a good trade for them and can be justified. But on it's face, without taking the specific player into account, it's a very bad trade as we know it. My guess is that we don't know all of the specifics of the trade. My guess is that the pick is protected against being a top-10 pick, but that is purely speculation. The fact that Jerry Jones made the trade and not a general manager makes sense since Jerry can do what is right for the team and not worry about getting fired if his team doesn't win in the next year or two. The simple fact is, however, that the Browns were not trading for some random 22nd pick. If they made that trade to pick up a guy that everyone slated to be in that spot, it would be a stupid idea on their part because they'd be offering up what could be a top 10 pick next year for a guy like Greg Olsen or something. The fact is, however, that a guy many thought could go as high as #2 was sitting there. That's what undoes your whole abstract on relative values. Further, I will buy your theory on how long a QB will last isn't determined by when he starts and that they simply have 10 years from the first time they're sacked. However, that assumes he's going to be the day one starter. If they bring him along the way Cinci did Palmer, they could really make this work out nicely. So, it's like this. Next April, do you want to have Brady Quinn with one year of holding the clipboard and occasional mop up duty under your belt or be drafting Brohm from Louisville (and I'm not going to make any claims as to which of those two would be the better prospect BTW. That is for guys like Sarge to boldly state as irrefutable fact despite the fact that he's wrong at least as often as he's right). 'Cause, regardless of who you get, you're either going to have to wait a year or rush him into action. Quinn, on the other hand would be ready to go and then you can start his "10 years until retirement" meter. As for your claims that "most" pundits think next year's draft will be better, that's the first I've heard of that. In fact, I believe it was John Clayton that I read the other day speculating that some teams aren't that excited about next years crop judging by the higher than average number of teams that traded 2008 picks away this year. Also, I highly doubt the pick is protected. I know it is common in the NBA, but I don't know of many cases where that happens in the NFL. I'm even more sure that if it was, it would be reported as such. Edited May 1, 2007 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 (and I'm not going to make any claims as to which of those two would be the better prospect BTW. That is for guys like Sarge to boldly state as irrefutable fact despite the fact that he's wrong at least as often as he's right). Now that's a shot... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kansas State 2000 Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 It wasn't a bad trade for either team ... for once both teams got WHAT??? they wanted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 It's painfully clear that Savage did what he had to do to help save the front office and coaching staff their jobs. I didn't want Quinn at 3 and am overjoyed that they took Joe Thomas. Obviously there's doubts about Charlie Frye, I just hope that they don't start the season with Quinn under center. I don't want the Cowboys picking in the top 5 only because that means that we lost alot of games and most of these off-season acquisitions didn't pan out and the joy we're feeling now will once again turn to tears. Terry Pluto said it best: Of all the Browns quarterbacks since 1999, Quinn comes into the best situation. The revised line has to be better with such veterans as Eric Steinbach, Ryan Tucker, Kevin Shaffer, Hank Fraley, Seth McKinney and the rookie Thomas as possible starters. He has an experienced 1,000-yard rusher in Jamal Lewis, a top pass-catching tight end with Kellen Winslow and a corps of receivers with talent: Joe Jurevicius, Braylon Edwards and Tim Carter, with youngsters Joshua Cribbs and Travis Wilson. I and most of the city of Cleveland are ecstatic that we don't have to watch the 8 hour 1st round next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 (edited) I and most of the city of Cleveland are ecstatic that we don't have to watch the 8 hour 1st round next season. You guys only ever have to watch the first 30 minutes or so........ Edited May 1, 2007 by Menudo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Red Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 OK, so plenty saw Kyle Boller as a first round talent this year. I, for one, was not completely sold on him but not so much that I'd think anyone would be reaching terribly by taking him that high. So, if he was worth using a top 5-10 pick this year, why isn't he worth using what may be a top 5-10 next year? If they hadn't gotten him, they'd be back into the same position next year, looking to spend a high 1st round pick on next year's version of him. Now at least they already have the guy and he'll have a year under his belt in the pros by this time next year. I suppose they could have gone with Staton or Edwards, or any of the other 2nd tier guys, but that depends on your evaluation of them. Phil Savage has been down this road before. Note he is no longer with the same team, and has one foot in the grave in Cleveland. Quinn strikes me as a momo-tard. I think Cleveland sent too much to get him. If the first round pick next year is high, then Cleveland had a bad year and Savage is out, so why should he care? I'm surprised he was allowed to make the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 anyone who says the trade was too expensive is just hatin. It was a great move on their part, and worth everything they gave... the jets on the other hand.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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