HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 16, 2007 Share Posted May 16, 2007 (edited) Hey Gil, your boy's running in the 10th at Pimlico saturday.Just a heads-up... EDIT: interesting that Chelokee skipped the Preakness. * Grade 2, $250,000 Dixie (race 10): Einstein, wheeling back in two weeks as the beaten favorite in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard, is a multiple graded winner and the most accomplished runner in a terrific 12-horse field that also includes Can't Beat It, Cosmonaut, Silver Tree, and Remarkable News. * The $100,000 Barbaro (race 9): Chelokee, who would have been a middling choice in the Preakness, instead looms as a huge favorite under Ramon Dominguez in this 1 1/16-mile race, formerly known as the Sir Barton Stakes. A field of seven 3-year-olds is entered. Edited May 16, 2007 by HowboutthemCowboys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2007 Share Posted May 17, 2007 Matz was pretty impressed with Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin. This tells me all three of them are for real, and we can expect a fairly chalky Preakness. Love the wheel back on Einstein. Chelokee is a play against most likely based on his low odds. Matz and Prado going after the first Barbaro Stakes and he'll be bet way down and is an overlay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tboogs Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Matz was pretty impressed with Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin. This tells me all three of them are for real, and we can expect a fairly chalky Preakness. Love the wheel back on Einstein. Chelokee is a play against most likely based on his low odds. Matz and Prado going after the first Barbaro Stakes and he'll be bet way down and is an overlay. I love Hard Spun to win the preakness...The cut back will only help...Think about this if Street Sense had gotten caught up in traffic ...Hard Spun was on his way to the winners circle. I don't think the other jockeys will allow C. Bo-Rail to get comfortable on the rail...SS will be overbet! I will throw him out...I am going with Hard Spun & Circular Quay in Heavy Exacta Box and Hard Spun, Circular/Hard spun, Circular/ ALL in a Tri - Partial...DATS IT! I also like the way CQ finished the Derby ...lets not forget that he was in the 16th slot and finished 6th...if the track is wet I really love HARD SPUN!!! Good Luck To All! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 I don't think the other jockeys will allow C. Bo-Rail to get comfortable on the rail... That's what they said in Kentucky before the Red Sea parted for him... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 I think Street Sense wins. But there's really no money in it. Xchanger and Flying First Class drew inside Hard Spun; he may have to work pretty hard to get to the front. I think he regresses this time. Hopefully the track is playing fair Saturday. I'm going to key Circular Quay and Curlin in a few exactas and tri's. I liked both of their races in the derby, they both passed alot of horses and CQ's final quarter was faster than SS, HS or Curlin's. Again I think SS will win but I'll be trying to beat him with a few small bets. As always I'll be playing the pic 4 and pic 3. Should be some nice $$ to be won there. Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 I'm hoping to see 9-2 on Curlin and I think I'll load up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Any of you horse racing experts now of a good (free) web site that has a solid summerized explainations for handicapping the ponies? Not just types of wagers, but what to look for in the stats and what are the smartest bets to make, etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Any of you horse racing experts now of a good (free) web site that has a solid summerized explainations for handicapping the ponies? Not just types of wagers, but what to look for in the stats and what are the smartest bets to make, etc? try drf.com, beginner's corner on the right about halfway down the page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 I'm hoping to see 9-2 on Curlin and I think I'll load up. Are you betting any exacta's, trifecta's, pick 3 and 4's? What other races have really good bets on Saturday? I am playing in a big charity poker tournament and the guy said he would have the race on for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Why all the love for Circular Quay? He was never in contention at all at the Derby. How are you guys planning on betting all the races Saturday? I would love to play some pick 3 and pick 4's and want to do some exactas and tri's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tboogs Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Why all the love for Circular Quay? He was never in contention at all at the Derby. How are you guys planning on betting all the races Saturday? I would love to play some pick 3 and pick 4's and want to do some exactas and tri's. lets not forget that he was in the 16th slot and finished 6th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Why all the love for Circular Quay? He was never in contention at all at the Derby. How are you guys planning on betting all the races Saturday? I would love to play some pick 3 and pick 4's and want to do some exactas and tri's. I don't have any love for him. I think he's going to be an above average one turn runner. I glanced over the card last night and have some thoughts on the later races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tboogs Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 I don't have any love for him. I think he's going to be an above average one turn runner. I glanced over the card last night and have some thoughts on the later races. He passed 15 other horses in the derby. He needs to stay close to the pace and then he will close. NOT a throw out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 I glanced over the card last night and have some thoughts on the later races. Help a brother out. Who should I bet on and how should I bet it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Help a brother out. Who should I bet on and how should I bet it? ask your wife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 He passed 15 other horses in the derby. He needs to stay close to the pace and then he will close. NOT a throw out. Of course he's not a throw out, because there's a bunch of garbage in this race. I don't see him winning this race. Second, eh....third, probably, fourth...probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Of course he's not a throw out, because there's a bunch of garbage in this race. I don't see him winning this race. Second, eh....third, probably, fourth...probably. +1 My wife said he doesnt have a chance... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 i'm picking up the form in a little bit for tomorrow. i'll try to give some insight to the race. as of right now, i'm thinking of playing all the longshots on top of hard spun and street sense in the exacta. probably something close to that in the trifecta as well. i'm sticking with my earlier prediction that i don't think one of the favorites win. we'll see after i scour the form for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 I don't have any love for him. I think he's going to be an above average one turn runner. I don't have love for him either but look at the others in the race..... SS, Hard Spun and probly Curlin will get HAMMERED at the window. Mint Slewlep,Xchanger,CP West and Flying First Class IMO won't win. I'll throw a few dollars at King of the Roxy. So if SS gets a bad trip and/or Hard Spun does'nt run or fades late who's gonna pick up the pieces? I'm just looking for some value. Like I posted earlier, small bets on CQ and Curlin (unless he's bet way down). I'll be concentrating on the pic 4 and pic 3's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Matz was pretty impressed with Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin. This tells me all three of them are for real, and we can expect a fairly chalky Preakness. Love the wheel back on Einstein. Chelokee is a play against most likely based on his low odds. Matz and Prado going after the first Barbaro Stakes and he'll be bet way down and is an overlay. What does "Chalky" and "wheeling back" mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Spain, TVG is a good horsebook account to have. I've recently opend a BRIS account. Hey Mark, I am going to open an account at TVG I think. I noticed that you can get $50 if you refer somebody to open an account. I was going to open an account, but you need to get some sort of code to give me before I sign up. If I use your code and then open an account, they will give you a $50 referral fee. Go here and then shoot me the code so you can get the referral: http://www.tvg.com/Authenticated/refer_a_friend/default.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 What does "Chalky" and "wheeling back" mean? not sure if you're serious or not but I'll bite. the favorite is "The Chalk". "Chalky" means the lowest odded horses will be on the board. Einstein is 'wheeling back" b/c he only raced 2 weeks ago. Unusual except for the triple crown races.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Race analysis from DRF.com Pimlico - Preakness Stakes (G1) By PAUL MALECKI 1. Hard Spun 2. Street Sense 3. Curlin The Kentucky Derby's top two finishers meet again in the Preakness and granting HARD SPUN a solid chance to gain revenge on STREET SENSE; tactically-inclined colt has handled every surface except Oaklawn's and impressed having little trouble dismissing the speeds at Churchill and finishing gamely; Lane's End appears particularly noteworthy triumph as similar outside stalking journey (behind fractions supplied by longshots XCHANGER and FLYING FIRST CLASS) could work today. Borel's skillful (some say magical) ground-saving rides have led to vastly talented STREET SENSE's G1 wins but it could be tough task to secure the rail from post eight today; of course, remember the Derby winner does not have to race nearly as far off the pace as last-out and seems to be coming into this race in similar outstanding fashion. CURLIN suffered first defeat in Kentucky although gaining respect in the process, falling farther out of contention than ever before and finishing with interest to decision 17 opponents; expect Albarado to get the G2 Arkansas Derby hero into the game earlier from inside slot. Rebound-minded Pletcher has entered CIRCULAR QUAY (and KING OF THE ROXY); G1 winner raced wide in Kentucky and liable to make late impact today; could prove prime beneficiary if a fast, contested pace develops. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A Closer Look Pimlico - Preakness Stakes (G1) By ART GROPPER Mint Slewlep: Exits the Withers, a race in which Bernardini used as his final prep before capturing the 2006 Preakness Stakes by over 5 lengths; Mint's Laurel win was expected (2-5); his lone graded stakes races have not impressed enough to think he can handle the top 3 from the Kentucky Derby; pass. Xchanger: Speedster drew inside of Hard Spun and those two appear to own the best gate speed; was on the lead dueling over the track in the Tesio, flying early through 46 and 2 - 110 and 4 fractions, before pulling away impressively in a race, which lacked superstars; you know he's not getting too far out in front of Hard Spun and no matter how you cut it, the 'Derby runnerup projects to be breathing down his neck from the bell; know him early, not sure about late. Circular Quay: Rallied from 18th to finish 6th following an 8-week break in the Ky. Derby, so may be sitting on a big race today; originally was going to skip the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown, but shows up with the Eclipse-Award winning trainer's top rider; he always begins slowly from the blocks and makes one huge run, which makes him more likely as a Belmont Stakes contender than as a Preakness star; will need a rapid pace and the top 3 from the 'Derby to all bounce to take this; late run's likely too late again. Curlin: Was never really tested through 3 career starts, then lost all chance, when steadied early and breaking 13th from the gate in the Ky. Derby; was expected to be among the top flight from the bell in Ky. and it certainly has to be considered a massive learning experience; that was a bold run out of him to finish a distant 3rd behind the top pair when he seemed hopelessly beaten in deep stretch; don't think we saw anything close to his best in Louisville and should be given another chance to topple the top pair given a much smoother start; the pick. King of the Roxy: Hard to forget how far back he was in defeat when finishing behind similar rivals in the 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile; has returned well in 2007, but this is a major stamina test, considering he was run down by Tiago (7th, beaten 10 lengths in the Ky. Derby) in the SA Derby going shorter than this; has never won beyond 7 and a half furlongs in career, while rider Velazquez, who won a G2 on him at Belmont, opts for Circular Quay again; tough call. Flying First Class: Displayed talent this year with a massive 107 Beyer speed figure in an Oaklawn February graduation party when making just 2nd-career start; after being handled twice eaisly by Curlin, he was strong to win the 1-turn 'Derby Trial; showed a ton of gate speed in latest, but was among the pace when Curlin ran him down in Arkansas; must show a degree of stamina, which he's not yet shown to turn the tables on Curlin and 7 others, including the Derby Champion and runnerup. Hard Spun: If you toss the Southwest flop at Oaklawn, his record is nearly flawless; was extremely sharp when cutting out the fractions in Kentucky, then displayed his class when battling Street Sense in the lane, gamely holding 2nd, nearly 6 lengths clear of Curlin; the Preakness pace seems a little more complex and he drew outside of all the speed, where in the 'Derby, there wasn't much early gas breaking from his inside; sired by Danzig, so believe he will be awesome on the turf later on; hard to imagine he gets loose on an easy lead here with Xchanger-King of the Roxy and Flying First Class all vying for early command too; that was an awesome 'Derby performance on the lead, but have to wonder if the likely hot pace scenario here will be too much. Street Sense: The Champ scored his 2 most impressive career victories at Churchill Downs and has the challenge of trying to match his eletricfying 'Derby rail rally on a new surface, while back in just 2 weeks; could have won by more yardage 2 weeks ago, but the rider celebrated early; is a nose away from being on a 4-race winning streak and has never run a bad race in his life; the pace should be quick here, which should set up his dynamic late blast again; must prove he can rally outside of horses as his best performances have been all rail rides; you have to beat The Champ to cash. C P West: 1-time winner is the Withers runnerup, the same race Bernardini won en route to his Preakness romp last year; drew the far outside post position for a trainer-jockey combo, who shocked the BEL Stakes with Birdstone vs. Smarty Jones; still eligible for an n1x allowance race, while his tactical speed projects to be hampered stalking a hot pace, while 4 or 5-wide; beaten 22 lengths by Street Sense in the 2006 Juvenile, so has tons to prove with this kind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 not sure if you're serious or not but I'll bite. the favorite is "The Chalk". "Chalky" means the lowest odded horses will be on the board. Einstein is 'wheeling back" b/c he only raced 2 weeks ago. Unusual except for the triple crown races.... No, I was totally serious in that I know nothing about horse racing. The lingo is completely foreign to me. GodTomSatan was explaining some of it to me. Thanks for the definitions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 I'm hoping to see 9-2 on Curlin and I think I'll load up. How about an exacta of Hard Spun/Curlin and Curlin/hardspun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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