godtomsatan Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 When is your wife going to release her picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 When is your wife going to release her picks? I havent shown her the racing form yet.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 try drf.com, beginner's corner on the right about halfway down the page. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 How about an exacta of Hard Spun/Curlin and Curlin/hardspun? or a Hard Spun/Curlin exacta box? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 How about an exacta of Hard Spun/Curlin and Curlin/hardspun? There won't be much money to be won on this wager unless you lay the wood. If you wanna throw a couple bucks at it to have a rooting interest in the race, cool. If you wanna make some cash involving the Preakness (unless you pick a longshot and get lucky) play the pic 4 and maybe the pic 3. You can play both for a dollar or however much you want. Say you play the pic 4 for $1.... 3 horses in the first leg, 2 in the 2nd leg, 3 in the 3rd leg and 2 in the 4th leg(Preakness). 3x2=6 x3=18 x2= a $36 bet. You can play 1 horse per leg or all the horses in each leg. The pool for tomorrow's pic 4 is $1,000,000. guarenteed. Have fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Here's some I like in the later races on the undercard. In the 6th (Hirsch Jacobs), Street Magician is out of the same sire as our Kentucky Derby winner, and might not be the best odds, but he's got a line that is easy to play. Third off the lay and is returning to a sprint. At the 6F distance, he's got the best number, and is one key for me. The other is Like Mom Like Sons, undefeated in 4 starts, out of Carson City, comes from Woodbine, but is put in the hands of Gomez, who I like. But here's the rub on this race: Almost all of the horses are need the lead types and there could be a complete pace meltdown for the 3, Heart Throbbin to pick up the pieces. Thus, Heart Throbbin is a must use at least underneath for exotics, or in some Pick 3's. In the 7th (Gallorette), a great race. In these, I look no further than the trainers, and there are a few in here that stand out. One key is the 4, Grigorieva, trained by Graham Motion, but before that he was conditioned in France by one of the best ever Andre Fabre. I'm thinking there's a short price here, especially with Dominguez on her back. She was just short her first try in the States, but no doubt has been pointing to this one. The other I like a lot is Frankel's Precious Kitten, who has only been out of the money twice in her 12 lifetime starts. The last 5 races are only firsts or seconds, and she shows a ton of heart. The other to look at is Matz's Aunt Henny. I trust and usually play anything that Matz sends out to the track...he's been pointing this one to this race since the Gulfstream meet, and has most of his ready to fire off the layoff. In the 8th, I haven't really closed in on this one with the exception that Celtic Innis is a live horse and should be good odds. I'll post more if I get back to this one tonight. In the 9th (Barbaro Stakes), Matz sends out Triple Crown hopeful Chelokee, who has been faced with bad feet and his choice to send him here will make him the favorite for sure. I think it's best to play against him in the top spot here, and I've found one that can upset. Look at Stonehouse, the 2. These connections don't just ship for the heck of it...they feel they have a legit shot to win. If it's muddy, I'm staying away from him, as his only bad race was in the mud. Should be decent odds with Chelokee taking a lot of money. I think we'll see Soaring Free scratch out and run at Belmont instead, so that leaves you with a small field. I really think those are the only two players here. In the 10th (Dixie Stakes), Einstein is back and should be much better after he was simply empty in the lane at Churchill two weeks ago. I'm hoping to see 3-1 on him and I'll load up. However, the main threat I see is Cosmonaught going out and getting first jump at the turn. So I see Remarkable News getting out to the lead from the 12 hole, but will have to burn himself a little to do that, and will leave him empty in the lane, Cosmonaught getting first jump, Einstein being right there, and after saving ground, one of my all time fave's Dreadnaught rolling late...so, that leaves me also with Silver Tree, who will be solid odds, and can also get a piece here. In the 11th (WD Schaefer), another good betting race. I'm assuming Flashy Bull is one of the favorites at post time, but I favor 2 others here. Ryan's For Real last race was on the poly at Keeneland and I'm tossing that race completely. Going back before those, you've got a good model of consistency, and this is where the local trainer also owns this horse, and puts him in the hands of Dominguez...a perfect horse to back in my opinion. Another that you can get your money's worth on is Two Sixty Four who I'm assuming will be the early leader and will try to hold on wire to wire. This is his first graded stake try, and I see others here that will also want the lead, so if there's a complete pace meltdown, I can easily see Sunriver or Hesanoldsalt picking up the pieces. The Preakness is not a good betting race in my opinion. If you like Circular Quay, go bet him. I don't like him in the top spot, so I would only use him underneath. Here's the thing about him: At the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, he was 10 lengths out of first. At the wire, he was 9 1/4 out...he made up 3/4 of a length in that time and he's supposed to be a closer. I just don't see it. In this race, I think we're going to see Xchanger, Flying First Class, King of The Roxy, and Hard Spun mixing it up early. Unlike the Derbry, where nobody challenged Hard Spun, I think we'll see Guidry press him to the limit. No doubt in my mind, Hard Spun ran the best race in the Derby, and no doubt that it took a ton out of him...I have Hard Spun off the board all together. I think this puts Curlin in the garden spot, having to get first jump and hold off Street Sense and Circular Quay in the stretch. Although I think he should be able to beat Quay, I'm just not so sure about Street Sense, he is for real. So, I'm in the air whether I think Curlin or Street Sense will win, but I'm going to nail that exacta pretty hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Disclaimer: the analysis here is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be used for wagering. Now I will look at the morning line odds to see that my picks are mostly chalk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 (edited) Looking at the PP's.....I'm looking at 4 horses for a variety of plays. 2-XChanger, who I don't see winning, but like as a tri/super bet @ 15-1. 3-Circular Quay, might be my horse to win given the odds. Took a long layoff before May 5th, but ran a solid race despite finishing back a ways. 7-Hard Spun is my favorite horse in the field, but the short odds aren't necessarily my thing. 8-Street Sense had an amazing Derby ride, but so much went right that I have a hard time seeing him get the 2nd leg. Let's go Hard Spun, Circular Quay, Street Sense, XChanger for a precise prediction. I'll go with a box of 3/7/8, 3/7/8, 2/3/7/8, 2/3/7/8. Might put a show on XChanger, and ATB on Circular Quay. The rest of the field: 1-Mint Slewlep, 6-Flying First Class, and 9-C P West are all non-factors. 5-King of the Roxy hasn't run since 4/7, and is on jockey #6. Pletcher horse, I realize, but I like his other one a lot better in this race. 4-Curlin never really contended on 5/5 despite a show finish. The pre-Derby dominance is called into question given the lackluster performance by his competition at Churchill. I'm staying all the way off of him here. Edited May 18, 2007 by godtomsatan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tboogs Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Looking at the PP's.....I'm looking at 4 horses for a variety of plays. 2-XChanger, who I don't see winning, but like as a tri/super bet @ 15-1. 3-Circular Quay, might be my horse to win given the odds. Took a long layoff before May 5th, but ran a solid race despite finishing back a ways. 7-Hard Spun is my favorite horse in the field, but the short odds aren't necessarily my thing. 8-Street Sense had an amazing Derby ride, but so much went right that I have a hard time seeing him get the 2nd leg. Let's go Hard Spun, Circular Quay, Street Sense, XChanger for a precise prediction. I'll go with a box of 3/7/8, 3/7/8, 2/3/7/8, 2/3/7/8. Might put a show on XChanger, and ATB on Circular Quay. The rest of the field: 1-Mint Slewlep, 6-Flying First Class, and 9-C P West are all non-factors. 5-King of the Roxy hasn't run since 4/7, and is on jockey #6. Pletcher horse, I realize, but I like his other one a lot better in this race. 4-Curlin never really contended on 5/5 despite a show finish. The pre-Derby dominance is called into question given the lackluster performance by his competition at Churchill. I'm staying all the way off of him here. WOW that is my bet! exactly! HS- CQ - SS - XC!!!! box those 4! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 (edited) I still aint buying the Cirgular Quay stock. He is getting good odds so there is value there. But he got blown off the track at the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he beat some other horses, but he was never in contention or threatening the leaders. Didnt like him on May 5th and I dont like him tomorrow. Of Course, my horse for the Derby was Scat Daddy, and the last I heard he was just getting the home stretch.... Edited May 18, 2007 by spain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 I'll be the first to applaud the Circular Quay backers if he wins tomorrow, but that's just too many lengths to make up against Hard Spun and/or Street Sense. Curlin, on the other hand, got jostled quite a bit and his running style is more conducive to this race, being closer early. I see CQ being at least 10 back at the half and at least 6 back at the top of the stretch. If he can make that up at Pimlico, my hats off to him, but I just don't see him in the top 2. I see him third or fourth at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 The Preakness is not a good betting race in my opinion. If you like Circular Quay, go bet him. I don't like him in the top spot, so I would only use him underneath. Here's the thing about him: At the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, he was 10 lengths out of first. At the wire, he was 9 1/4 out...he made up 3/4 of a length in that time and he's supposed to be a closer. If you want to use the rudimentary timing logic of a DRF PP, Circular Quay ran a faster final stretch than Street Sense. And also closed from 13th place to 6th place over the final quarter-mile. With the extra 1/8th tomorrow, I think he'll be right up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 (edited) If you want to use the rudimentary timing logic of a DRF PP, Circular Quay ran a faster final stretch than Street Sense. And also closed from 13th place to 6th place over the final quarter-mile. With the extra 1/8th tomorrow, I think he'll be right up there. Didnt the jockey let off of Street Sense a little early? edit: For the love of God, before anyone bets any real money, let me run the names of the horses by Mrs. Spain... Edited May 18, 2007 by spain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Didnt the jockey let off of Street Sense a little early? Looking at the replay, no. Hard charging all the way through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 If you want to use the rudimentary timing logic of a DRF PP, Circular Quay ran a faster final stretch than Street Sense. And also closed from 13th place to 6th place over the final quarter-mile. With the extra 1/8th tomorrow, I think he'll be right up there. The extra 1/8 does nothing for this horse. I contend that he would be better at 7 F's to a mile. If you think he can make up the 9 lengths on Street Sense and the 7 lengths on Hard Spun, bet him with both fists! This is not Pletcher's style, to run a horse back so quickly. He is not running any of his other Derby runners, and would have been happy with just having King of The Roxy in here. This is Tabor's decision, and I think he's a minor player. My choice, Curlin, only has a chance if Hard Spun gets pressed early and fades...and must hold off Street Sense in the lane. Not a cinch, but I like that he'll be closer to the pace than Circular Quay. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 And let me build a stronger case for Curlin vs. Circular Quay. I use BRIS, which includes pace numbers. E1, E2, and LP. E1 is a number that gives a speed number to the first call. E2 is a number that gives a speed number to the second call. LP is late pace number given for the finish. Bris says that Curlin ran faster in E1, E2, and the same LP. Of the Derby horses: Circular Quay: 66-96-91: Total speed number 98 Curlin: 79-99-91: Total speed number 99 Hard Spun: 103-108-93: Total speed number of 105 Street Sense: 64-101-105: Total speed number of 108 Thus my reasoning that Hard Spun ran his eyeballs out in the Derby, and my visual of Curlin getting bounced around like a pinball, which leads me to seeing him in the garden spot at decent enough odds. Curlin had a rough trip and I expect it to be much better tomorrow. But I'm often way wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 edit: For the love of God, before anyone bets any real money, let me run the names of the horses by Mrs. Spain... well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 And let me build a stronger case for Curlin vs. Circular Quay. I use BRIS, which includes pace numbers. E1, E2, and LP. E1 is a number that gives a speed number to the first call. E2 is a number that gives a speed number to the second call. LP is late pace number given for the finish. Bris says that Curlin ran faster in E1, E2, and the same LP. Of the Derby horses: Circular Quay: 66-96-91: Total speed number 98 Curlin: 79-99-91: Total speed number 99 Hard Spun: 103-108-93: Total speed number of 105 Street Sense: 64-101-105: Total speed number of 108 Thus my reasoning that Hard Spun ran his eyeballs out in the Derby, and my visual of Curlin getting bounced around like a pinball, which leads me to seeing him in the garden spot at decent enough odds. Curlin had a rough trip and I expect it to be much better tomorrow. But I'm often way wrong. interesting that Curlin is the 2nd choice in the Black Eyed Susan/Preakness double over Hard Spun...could be a sign of things to come for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 With the extra 1/8th tomorrow, I think he'll be right up there. what extra 1/8? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 what extra 1/8? good point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Loins of Beef Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Keeping simple-- Exacta box S.Sense-Curlin Place bet on S. Sense wouldn't be surprised to see a 45.5 to 46 up front with the early speed stinks to bet chalk but that is what it looks like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 its a chalk day afternoon. at least the looks of it on paper. horses i like on the undercard 3rd race: mid odds shot easy grades. gray dorian for a longshot. 4th race: suave jazz. looks much the best here. parlay with chelokee in the 9th. 5th race: mid odds hopefully on tacirring. might get bet down. 6th race: like mom like sons. co favorite early morning. watch out if sportstown runs after only 2 days off 7th race: aunt henny. decent numbers. 8th race: 1-2-3 tribox. i can't decide which wins it. 9th race: chelokee wins going away. parlay with suave jazz in the 4th. 10th race: cosmonaut looks solid. einsteins post might hurt. lonshot can't beat it. didn't look at the 11th. preakness: hard spun might change tactics for this one. i find it hard to believe, but we'll see. i'll post more tomorrow if i have a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 what extra 1/8? The extra 1/8th that is actually the opposite of extra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 I'm more interested in what your wife has to say.... Hey Huddlers! I'm the Mrs. Spain... I know most of you really want to know what kind of strange woman would put up with a maniac like Mr Spain, but he's really a softee... and he has a cute butt! Ok, so on to the business at hand... first of all, my disclaimer: I, like my hubby, don't know the north end from the south of a horse, so don't be dumping a bunch of $ on these 'out of the air' picks, and then come back and slam me when you're applying for a second mortgage. Nuf said.... nice to meet you all and here we go: 1st race: Phantastic Peace 2nd race: Andiamo 3rd race: Orlop 4th race: Coppertone Kid 5th race: Beer Stein and Hero's Reward 6th race: Sports Town 7th race: Grigorieva 8th race: Diabolical 9th race: no pick 10th race: Einstein and Mending Fences 11th: Smelling Salts 12th: Cingular Quay and Hard Spun 13th: Girls Best Friend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSab Posted May 19, 2007 Share Posted May 19, 2007 Thank you for the tip, now are you really Mrs. Spain, or an alter ego? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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