QB Rankings: Why Is Michael Vick So High?

[Shelby Montana]

3-year subscriber but RARE msg bd viewer. However, the ranking of Michael Vick so high surprised me. All I read in his write-up was negative stuff. I understand the notation of risk but along with that, the high ranking confuses me. His ranking indicates he should be drafted as a starter (albeit a low-end starter but a starter nonetheless). With all of the questions surrounding him, I'd like to know a bit more about why he still is considered a fantasy starter. I personally would draft him only as a back-up this year in re-draft leagues and see if I could unload him in dynasty leagues.

 

Any questions or comments? DMD??

[The Irish Doggy]

[irish]

He is ranked so highly based on his current situation which has him on the playing field. Therefore, expecting him to play, you must realize that he's a threat to throw for almost 3,000 yds and rush for over 1,000. Now add the rushing+passing tds and you've got yourself a bonafide fantasy starter.

 

Now if something were to happen where he would be suspended, then we all will know what his value is-0. So, it's easier to predict what you think his production will be and then change it to 0 if something were to happen, versus start with an assumption of legal problems ending in suspension, then nothing happen and have to go back and project numbers for him.

 

If he plays he will be a decent to solid starter most weeks based on his rushing totals alone.

Edited June 26, 2007 by irish

[Bronco Billy]

He is ranked so highly based on his current situation which has him on the playing field. Therefore, expecting him to play, you must realize that he's a threat to throw for almost 3,000 2500 yds and rush for over 1,000. Now add the rushing+passing tds and you've got yourself a bonafide fantasy starter.

 

 

 

Fixed, but agreed. As much as I dislike Vick - predominantly for being pimped for something he isn't capable of being as well as his off-field B.S. - he is capable of good FF numbers in many leagues if he does play this season.

 

I won't draft him nearly high enough for him ever to be on one of my FF teams though. There's always someone in all of my leagues that value him a lot more than I do - and that was before this offseason's problems that he's had.

[DMD]

I cannot say I am comfortable with his ranking but then again it is really hard to nail down what his ranking should be with a new offense to learn and a federal investigation underway. He runs far more than any other QB and that typically counts big in most leagues and cannot be ignored. Personally I would never touch him and I won't need a lot of reasons to drop his ranking, but all things as they are at the moment, his ranking is valid - and very, very risky.

[irish]

Fixed, but agreed.

 

He may not throw for 3,000 but as I said almost 3,000 is where I think he ends up. Like 2,850-ish. But that would be tops and his regular 2,400-2,500 seems more probable, although Petrino would like more from the passing game.

 

So even with BB's lower pasing number Vick throwing for 2,500 yds 20 tds and rushing for 1,050 yds and 2-4 tds would give you an average of 19 points a week and that is excellent starter numbers.

Edited June 26, 2007 by irish

[kingfish247]

Under Petrino and Jackson, I don't see 800+ rushing yards from him. They run a much more traditional offense than anything that Vick has played under so the opportunities just won't be there (a power run game vs. zone, liberal audibling vs. virtually none, multiple TE sets, play-action, and use of no-huddle/spread formations). The new offense is entirely different than what Knapp/Gibbs tried to install.

 

Ranking Vick is almost meaningless since there's a guy in virtually all leagues that will take him 2-3 rounds above his actual rankings based on stats and his situation.

[URLACHERisGOD]

Vick is high because airport authorities let him keep his stash!

[godtomsatan]

Ranking Vick is almost meaningless since there's a guy in virtually all leagues that will take him 2-3 rounds above his actual rankings based on stats and his situation.

 

 

Last year, according to my numbers, he scored AT LEAST 15 fantasy points in 12 weeks (not 3 of the last 4 however). The league leader in this stat was Peyton Manning with 15 points in 15 weeks. The only other QB to match Vick's consistency was Carson Palmer, who also put up 15 points in 12 weeks.

 

The last three seasons have seen his end of year total points rank among QBs go from #12 to #6 to #2. I agree he's never the QB one wants to have on their team, but to say he's getting over-drafted is a total fallacy.

[irish]

Under Petrino and Jackson, I don't see 800+ rushing yards from him. They run a much more traditional offense than anything that Vick has played under so the opportunities just won't be there (a power run game vs. zone, liberal audibling vs. virtually none, multiple TE sets, play-action, and use of no-huddle/spread formations). The new offense is entirely different than what Knapp/Gibbs tried to install.

 

Ranking Vick is almost meaningless since there's a guy in virtually all leagues that will take him 2-3 rounds above his actual rankings based on stats and his situation.

 

 

You better look again because that's all Vick truly does well. And when Petrino and Co. see that play out on Sundays they will have no choice but to let him do his thing. Vick will most likely clear 1,000 yds rushing again and if not it will be close.

[Bronco Billy]

Last year, according to my numbers, he scored AT LEAST 15 fantasy points in 12 weeks (not 3 of the last 4 however). The league leader in this stat was Peyton Manning with 15 points in 15 weeks. The only other QB to match Vick's consistency was Carson Palmer, who also put up 15 points in 12 weeks.

 

The last three seasons have seen his end of year total points rank among QBs go from #12 to #6 to #2. I agree he's never the QB one wants to have on their team, but to say he's getting over-drafted is a total fallacy.

 

 

Here is the QB scoring and number of games over average from last year in our league (average ppw QB scoring for the top 12 QBs was 17.76 ppw):

 

# Player

1 Manning, Peyton IND QB 391.3 11

2 Brees, Drew NOS QB 359.2 10

3 Bulger, Marc STL QB 282.6 10

4 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 260.1 8

5 Brady, Tom NEP QB 255 9

6 Vick, Michael ATL QB 250.6 8

7 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 229.7 7

8 McNair, Steve BAL QB 222.2 6

9 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 219.3 7

10 Pennington, Chad NYJ QB 215.5 6

11 Favre, Brett GBP QB 211.5 6

12 Kitna, Jon DET QB 210.7 6

 

Vick would have finished #7 if McNabb would have been healthy all year. Vick's poor week 14 & week 16 performances in weeks 14 & 16 (5.1 pts & -0.3 pts in our league respectively) would have killed a lot of his owners in the playoffs.

[Bronco Billy]

Vick will most likely clear 1,000 yds rushing again and if not it will be close.

 

 

Vick just set an NFL record for QB rushing last season with 1039 yds. Why in the world would anyone in their right mind expect him to come close to that number again? It's just like when Manning went off for 49 passing TDs. The next season there were a ton of people who expected anywhere from 40 to 50 TD passes from him. What did he get? 28 - which is about his mean.

 

Vick has a much greater probablility of reverting to his mean and get around 860 yds rushing next season than he has of coming near a record that was the best rushing season by a QB in modern NFL history, don't you think? And that would be only IF he plays a full season - something he's done only one time in his career so far.

Edited June 26, 2007 by Bronco Billy

[kingfish247]

You better look again because that's all Vick truly does well. And when Petrino and Co. see that play out on Sundays they will have no choice but to let him do his thing. Vick will most likely clear 1,000 yds rushing again and if not it will be close.

 

Look again?

 

If Petrino hopes to last longer than the last few Atlanta coaches, they better find a way for Vick to start doing more with his arm than his legs... and Petrino/Jackson know this. In projecting a players output all you can go by is a) the player's past performance, b.) styles of the offensive coaches, and c) statements made by those coaches. In so many words, Petrino and Jackson have already acknowledged they need to establish more balance on offense by lessening Vick's rush output. They've said they want to get him to 3,000 yds passing and cut way back on the rush yds. Whether or not they will succeed is an entirely different argument, and knowing the polarizing figure that Vick is around here it surely would result in 20 pages of posts, but this is the staff's stated gameplan. Now for a look at the numbers...

 

In his full seasons Vick ran for 777, 902, 597, and 1039... an average of 828 rush yards on 114 attempts per year. Yes, yes I know some pass plays called for Vick turn into rush attempts. So look at the pass plays vs. run plays for the team... 416 vs. 537. Let's say that half of Vick's rush attempts were broken pass plays (very generous)... that assumes ~60 designed run plays per year.

Petrino/Jackson's system will likely require Vick to make 30+ throws per game (Vick only made 30+ pass attempts 4 times in 2006) Assume Vick makes exactly 30 pass attempts per game under Petrino... that's 480 pass attempts vs. ~470 run plays. Assuming the same number of pass plays that turn into runs for Vick, Petrino needs to call HALF as many designed run plays for Vick. Vick would finish the season with ~80 rush attempts. Vick has averaged ~7ypc in his full seasons. That's about 580 rush yards.

 

Also to keep in mind... a huge part of Knapp/Gibbs system was rolling the QB out of the pocket which resulted in even more rush attempts for Vick. Petrino/Jackson's system all but eliminates this in the shift from zone blocking to more traditional pocket protection.

 

Look I'm a Falcons fan but even I'm not sure about the offense. I don't even know if Vick can succeed in what Petrino/Jackson are trying to put together. All I know is that this system vs. the previous regime's system couldn't be more polar opposites of each other which makes it very difficult, now more than ever, to project Vick... and that's before mentioning his legal troubles.

Edited June 26, 2007 by kingfish247

[irish]

Vick just set an NFL record for QB rushing last season with 1039 yds. Why in the world would anyone in their right mind expect him to come close to that number again? It's just like when Manning went off for 49 passing TDs. The next season there were a ton of people who expected anywhere from 40 to 50 TD passes from him. What did he get? 28 - which is about his mean.

 

Vick has a much greater probablility of reverting to his mean and get around 860 yds rushing next season than he has of coming near a record that was the best rushing season by a QB in modern NFL history, don't you think? And that would be only IF he plays a full season - something he's done only one time in his career so far.

 

 

You're acting as if Vick's mean yearly rushing average is really that far off what he did last year. It's not. What Manning did was incredible and the difference between his record setting performance and his yearly mean was quite drastic, wasn't it? Even if Vick doesn't rush for 1,000 yds, is 900 really that much different? Come on now BB, you're better than this.

 

Vick's record rushing yardage last year gave him an average of almost 65 yards a game. If he rushes for the mean number you mentioned 860 yards this year than that equates to 54 yards a game a difference of 1.1 points in fractional scoring leagues. Not a hugh deal at all, whereas the change in Mannings numbers was quite different greater than 5 points a game. So you're talking about apples and oranges here with the only commonality being that the two players broke records.

 

So my point stands that being that we can't make assumptions as to his playing status this year, if Vick plays a full 16 game schedule he deserves the high ranking (albeit it's risky) based on his rushing totals alone and the fact that he will approach or exceed 1,000 yards again this year.

Edited June 26, 2007 by irish

[irish]

Look again?

 

If Petrino hopes to last longer than the last few Atlanta coaches, they better find a way for Vick to start doing more with his arm than his legs... and Petrino/Jackson know this. In projecting a players output all you can go by is a) the player's past performance, b.) styles of the offensive coaches, and c) statements made by those coaches. In so many words, Petrino and Jackson have already acknowledged they need to establish more balance on offense by lessening Vick's rush output. They've said they want to get him to 3,000 yds passing and cut way back on the rush yds. Whether or not they will succeed is an entirely different argument, and knowing the polarizing figure that Vick is around here it surely would result in 20 pages of posts, but this is the staff's stated gameplan. Now for a look at the numbers...

 

In his full seasons Vick ran for 777, 902, 597, and 1039... an average of 828 rush yards on 114 attempts per year. Yes, yes I know some pass plays called for Vick turn into rush attempts. So look at the pass plays vs. run plays for the team... 416 vs. 537. Let's say that half of Vick's rush attempts were broken pass plays (very generous)... that assumes ~60 designed run plays per year.

Petrino/Jackson's system will likely require Vick to make 30+ throws per game (Vick only made 30+ pass attempts 4 times in 2006) Assume Vick makes exactly 30 pass attempts per game under Petrino... that's 480 pass attempts vs. ~470 run plays. Assuming the same number of pass plays that turn into runs for Vick, Petrino needs to call HALF as many designed run plays for Vick. Vick would finish the season with ~80 rush attempts. Vick has averaged ~7ypc in his full seasons. That's about 580 rush yards.

 

Also to keep in mind... a huge part of Knapp/Gibbs system was rolling the QB out of the pocket which resulted in even more rush attempts for Vick. Petrino/Jackson's system all but eliminates this in the shift from zone blocking to more traditional pocket protection.

 

Look I'm a Falcons fan but even I'm not sure about the offense. I don't even know if Vick can succeed in what Petrino/Jackson are trying to put together. All I know is that this system vs. the previous regime's system couldn't be more polar opposites of each other which makes it very difficult, now more than ever, to project Vick... and that's before mentioning his legal troubles.

 

 

Good points Kingfish. I just don't see Vick surviving under the scenerio where he has to be more of a passer. I think he will continue to do what he does best and that the coaching staff will end up changing things up to allow him to use his talents, creating outside the pocket. Thanks for the insight though.

[TheFootballGuy]

i haven't understood so far why he's been so low on draft charts.

 

he'll throw for 3000, and rush for 1000 or like was said, around 600. you've got yourself a servicable fantasy qb, who serves almost as an extra starting running back weekly.

 

i'll take that. he'll throw for around 3000 and pass for probably about 18-20 tds, but in most standard leagues, his rushing basically gives him equal to 10 passing touchdowns or more. fine by me.

[Bronco Billy]

You're acting as if Vick's mean yearly rushing average is really that far off what he did last year. It's not. What Manning did was incredible and the difference between his record setting performance and his yearly mean was quite drastic, wasn't it? Even if Vick doesn't rush for 1,000 yds, is 900 really that much different? Come on now BB, you're better than this.

 

 

 

Expecting 1039 yds rushing again - and again, that was a NFL record for QBs - is expecting roughly a 20% increase over his normal performance. Expecting him to perform like that is plainly unreasonable. He ought to regress to his mean, which is closer to 850 yds rushing. It's like expecting 3000 yds passing from him. That's career-high stuff for Vick. His normal performance is closer to 2400 yds passing, yet you expect a 25% increase from his norm - and in the same season you expect him to hit an NFL high in rushing again for QBs.

 

That's being unreasonable, and that you have a man-crush on Vick doesn't change that. People ought to expect 850 yds rushing & 2400 yds passing - and that's in a full season. They also ought to expect him to miss at least a couple of games to injury.

 

That's why Vick should be considered a lower end starting QB at best.

[McBoog]

I cannot say I am comfortable with his ranking but then again it is really hard to nail down what his ranking should be with a new offense to learn and a federal investigation underway. He runs far more than any other QB and that typically counts big in most leagues and cannot be ignored. Personally I would never touch him and I won't need a lot of reasons to drop his ranking, but all things as they are at the moment, his ranking is valid - and very, very risky.

 

 

Please read this again everyone! I don't know if you really "get" what DMD is saying!

[The Irish Doggy]

He is the #1 most exciting player in the league...

[irish]

Expecting 1039 yds rushing again - and again, that was a NFL record for QBs - is expecting roughly a 20% increase over his normal performance. Expecting him to perform like that is plainly unreasonable. He ought to regress to his mean, which is closer to 850 yds rushing. It's like expecting 3000 yds passing from him. That's career-high stuff for Vick. His normal performance is closer to 2400 yds passing, yet you expect a 25% increase from his norm - and in the same season you expect him to hit an NFL high in rushing again for QBs.

 

That's being unreasonable, and that you have a man-crush on Vick doesn't change that. People ought to expect 850 yds rushing & 2400 yds passing - and that's in a full season. They also ought to expect him to miss at least a couple of games to injury.

 

That's why Vick should be considered a lower end starting QB at best.

 

 

I agree with you 100% BB in that it would be highly abnormal for him to break out like that this season. However, I do want to state one thing for the record, I DO NOT have a man-crush on Vick!! I have not and will never own him on one of my teams just because he's drafted way to high for my liking.

[kingfish247]

Please read this again everyone! I don't know if you really "get" what DMD is saying!

 

I agree 100% with the ranking and the assessment re: the new offense and legal troubles.

 

For those reasons I just can't see how 800yds rushing, let alone 1000+, can be counted on this year. It can only be counted on based on averages but the biggest parts of the equation for those averages are either gone (Knapp/Mora, part of the offensive line) or might miss all or part of the season (Vick).

 

Making Vick your #1 QB as the 6th QB taken (just to use BB's averages ranking example) is extremely risky based on the new offense alone... even if he's cleared of all legal troubles before the season.

Edited June 26, 2007 by kingfish247

[Shelby Montana]

Wow! I didn't expect to generate this much spirited debate. Thanks everyone for offering your opinions. I should hang out here more often!

[Jester9]

Vick always feels wrong. I had him last year and this is what really hurt, 5-30-4. That was Vick's scoring during the playoffs in our scoring format. In our Championship game Vick got 4 points. But when I looked overall, he was fourth in QB scoring. When everything is said and done he does alright. But it seems when you need him, he lays down.

[McBoog]

Vick always feels wrong. I had him last year and this is what really hurt, 5-30-4. That was Vick's scoring during the playoffs in our scoring format. In our Championship game Vick got 4 points. But when I looked overall, he was fourth in QB scoring. When everything is said and done he does alright. But it seems when you need him, he lays down.

 

 

These players drive me insane as an FF player. I would rather have 10 points a week consistently over three weeks than the 12 points per week average! Especially at a position where you usually only start one player! Some of these players in the past like McNair, Stewart, etc. can give you a W, but more often hang an L on you with a down week.

 

Nice, consistent red-chippers! Not flashy, but a winning formula!

[Donutrun Jellies]

He is the #1 most exciting player in the league...

 

That's a hold over from when he was playing Pop Warner ... Isn't it now "He is the #1 replica of Kordel Stewart in the league ..."

Edited June 27, 2007 by Donutrun Jellies