Hardest Pick in the Draft

[Pancake]

That's a lot of confidence for a guy who's had one great season. I mean I like Gore a lot, but over LJ or SJ? I'd think twice at this point about making that choice in the draft.

 

If you'd take Manning in the 5 spot, I'd love to have you in my league.

 

 

 

Peyton will go between 5th and 8th pick in my league. 2 QBs are allowed to start in my league as we have a flex position instead of a TE position and that flex includes QBs. Because the 10th through 20th ranked QBs definatley score more than the 20th through 30th ranked RBs and WRs, one of the main strategies is to pick up a second QB before you grab your 3rd RB.

[Bronco Billy]

 

If you'd take Manning in the 5 spot, I'd love to have you in my league.

 

 

In a start 2 QB league, Manning going that early is absolutely appropriate.

[Seahawks21]

Manning is apropriate in any league that doesn't have more 14 owners. IMO there aren't any other RB's after the first four that are going to be all that much better than the RB I would draft in the 3rd round if I selected Peyton with the 5th pick. At that point, Peyton is money in the bank.

 

Put it this way

 

I would rather have Peyton, Bush, Deangelo Williams than....

 

Alexander, Bush, McNabb

[irish]

That's a lot of confidence for a guy who's had one great season. I mean I like Gore a lot, but over LJ or SJ? I'd think twice at this point about making that choice in the draft.

 

If you'd take Manning in the 5 spot, I'd love to have you in my league.

 

 

Same here. I wish I could play in a league with him as well. Manning shouldn't be taken anywhere near #5 regardless of what type of league it is.

[Seahawks21]

I am so tired of people saying "after one year??" when dealing with Frank Gore. Yes!!! These are RB's!!! They don't get significantly better with experience. If anybody needs to know why Frank Gore is ranked so high, simply watch him play. It isn't that difficult to figure out.

[irish]

Manning is apropriate in any league that doesn't have more 14 owners. IMO there aren't any other RB's after the first four that are going to be all that much better than the RB I would draft in the 3rd round if I selected Peyton with the 5th pick. At that point, Peyton is money in the bank.

 

Put it this way

 

I would rather have Peyton, Bush, Deangelo Williams than....

 

Alexander, Bush, McNabb

 

 

Never, ever take Manning that high!! Several other QBs will perform as well as he does and a couple have a shot at being better (Brady, Palmer, Brees and McNabb). Another thing is I know I can platoon 2 QBs throughout the season that will put up as good if not better numbers by playing the matchups and therefore will have better production from my RBs and WRs and no loss of production at QB as compared to you, if you took Manning at #5.

Edited June 28, 2007 by irish

[TDFFFreak]

Peyton will go between 5th and 8th pick in my league. 2 QBs are allowed to start in my league as we have a flex position instead of a TE position and that flex includes QBs. Because the 10th through 20th ranked QBs definatley score more than the 20th through 30th ranked RBs and WRs, one of the main strategies is to pick up a second QB before you grab your 3rd RB.

 

That would make sense. I was assuming a one QB start league.

[TDFFFreak]

I am so tired of people saying "after one year??" when dealing with Frank Gore. Yes!!! These are RB's!!! They don't get significantly better with experience. If anybody needs to know why Frank Gore is ranked so high, simply watch him play. It isn't that difficult to figure out.

 

It's not that I dislike Gore. I like him quite a bit, BUT over LJ? LJ still has tread on those tires and he's shown the ability to put up impressive numbers for more then one year, plus he's on a team who's offense is geared toward the run and quick pass to the RB. It's not a matter of dissing Gore and more of a matter of feeling as if LJ is the safer pick with as much of an upside as Gore.

Edited June 29, 2007 by TDFFFreak

[Seahawks21]

It would be darn hard to have Peyton Manning on your fantasy roster and not make the playoffs. You can't say that about Shaun Alexander, Joseph Addai or Westbrook or whoever else you would take at #5.

[bushwacked]

It would be darn hard to have Peyton Manning Ladanian Tomilson on your fantasy roster and not make the playoffs. You can't say that about Shaun Alexander, Joseph Addai or Westbrook or whoever else you would take at #5.

 

 

Fixed. I respect Manning's ability to put up points consistently more than others on this thread, but there is no doubt picking him within the first 2 rounds (and even 3) puts a strain on the owner to come up with a great overall draft. Especially since standard modern leagues usually start a minimum combo of 5 roster spots at RB/WR (in a WCOFF type league you start 6).

 

[Disclaimer....I'm only using last year's stats to make a point].

 

In a standard PPR league last year LT outscored the Jackson by ~65 points. Only one RB (Jackson) was within 100 points of him and a total of six other RBs were within 200 points. That is a performance you can ride to the playoffs and maybe even a championship. I'm guessing in 2005 you could have grouped SA and

LT together near the top, but the downward disparity was probably similar.

 

In a standard 4 points per TD throw league last year Manning outscored Vick by ~45 points. Eight QBs were within ~ 100 points and a total of 30 QBs were within 200. Impressive, but not flabbergastinginly amazing. Other than Manning's record breaking season, this is probably within the expected ceiling for him as far as outscoring other QB's.

 

The 23 top WR's were ~ 100 points of each other last year (the hard part is picking the ones that aren't top 10 year to year, but outperform their draft value).

 

The above stats could be used to make a virtual case (or damn lie) about any kind of draft strategy one would want to use. I'm not one to disregard Manning's consistency from year to year, or downplay his value. I'd love to have him in every league I draft in. But, under the standard scoring formats and roster requirements, he is nowhere near a fullproof savior that you can ride while making a mistake(s) within the first several (5-6?) rounds.

[wolfden1]

I would have no problem taking gore with a # 4 ...young , healthy , the main guy for a team that should continue to improve and has no major losses on offense and still plays a pretty bad division

 

I don't know why Gore is still not getting the love. Yes, everyone was worried about the knee (even how many NFL teams that passed on him in the draft?), but he's shown no signs of nagging injuries since he hit the pros. Great receiver out of the backfield, good situation w/ a still-young (not Young) QB. No-brainer at #4, maybe #3.

[TDFFFreak]

I don't know why Gore is still not getting the love. Yes, everyone was worried about the knee (even how many NFL teams that passed on him in the draft?), but he's shown no signs of nagging injuries since he hit the pros. Great receiver out of the backfield, good situation w/ a still-young (not Young) QB. No-brainer at #4, maybe #3.

 

Not sure what you are talking about? It seems to me that Gore is the near-unanimous #4 pick with a few championing him as the #3 pick. If that's not love, I don't know what is unless you want people to take Gore over LT.

[FanProphet]

The hardest selections in the draft are the selections that everyone is sleeping on. If you have the balls to pull the trigger, you'll do fine.

 

-FanProphet

[Raider.Nation]

Standard scoring, doesn't even matter if it's PPR.

 

1. LT2

2. LJ

3. Sjax

4. Gore

5. SA

6. Westbrook

7. Addai

8. Parker

[Seahawks21]

Fixed. I respect Manning's ability to put up points consistently more than others on this thread, but there is no doubt picking him within the first 2 rounds (and even 3) puts a strain on the owner to come up with a great overall draft. Especially since standard modern leagues usually start a minimum combo of 5 roster spots at RB/WR (in a WCOFF type league you start 6).

 

[Disclaimer....I'm only using last year's stats to make a point].

 

In a standard PPR league last year LT outscored the Jackson by ~65 points. Only one RB (Jackson) was within 100 points of him and a total of six other RBs were within 200 points. That is a performance you can ride to the playoffs and maybe even a championship. I'm guessing in 2005 you could have grouped SA and

LT together near the top, but the downward disparity was probably similar.

 

In a standard 4 points per TD throw league last year Manning outscored Vick by ~45 points. Eight QBs were within ~ 100 points and a total of 30 QBs were within 200. Impressive, but not flabbergastinginly amazing. Other than Manning's record breaking season, this is probably within the expected ceiling for him as far as outscoring other QB's.

 

The 23 top WR's were ~ 100 points of each other last year (the hard part is picking the ones that aren't top 10 year to year, but outperform their draft value).

 

The above stats could be used to make a virtual case (or damn lie) about any kind of draft strategy one would want to use. I'm not one to disregard Manning's consistency from year to year, or downplay his value. I'd love to have him in every league I draft in. But, under the standard scoring formats and roster requirements, he is nowhere near a fullproof savior that you can ride while making a mistake(s) within the first several (5-6?) rounds.

Point taken, I will re-phrase. It would be awfully hard for someone with a little drafting talent to not make the playoffs with Peyton Manning. You can get as technical with this one as you want to, but my reason behind taking Manning is much simpler. Over the past 7 or so years, I've participated in 25-30 fantasy leagues. I have noticed that in the vast majority of those leagues, the team that had Peyton Manning was a contender.

[muck]

Point taken, I will re-phrase. It would be awfully hard for someone with a little drafting talent to not make the playoffs with Peyton Manning. You can get as technical with this one as you want to, but my reason behind taking Manning is much simpler. Over the past 7 or so years, I've participated in 25-30 fantasy leagues. I have noticed that in the vast majority of those leagues, the team that had Peyton Manning was a contender.

 

See, I'd say it another way ...

 

If you have the top QB in the NFL, you'll have a great chance at making the playoffs in your FF league.

 

While this has been PM more often than not, it's not a lock to be so (but, then again, it's no lock that LT2 is going for 2400 combined yards and 24 TDs either...

[DJ Dade]

In a performance league where RB's and Wr Td's are 6 and QB Td's are 4I taking peyton manning or any QB in the first or second or third round is one of the dumbest moves a fantasy manager can make. There are so many quality qb's that are available in the much later rounds and taking a Qb in the later rounds allowes you to use your higher picks on RB's and WR's. The first round pick should only be used on a stud RB. Taking a QB in the early rounds really messes up your team because the pick eliminates the opportunity to get a stud rb or WR. The idea of some1 taking Peyton at the 5 makes me sick to my stomach.

 

In a 10 team performance mock draft there are great qb's that can be taken in late rounds which is why it is stupid to use your first round pick on a QB...

Eli-11th round

Philip rivers 13th round

Romo-11th round

McNabb-7th round

[Big Country]

In a performance league where RB's and Wr Td's are 6 and QB Td's are 4I

 

QB TD scoring is essentially irrelevant, so long as all QBs get the same points for TDs, a change to the points associated to TDs has an extremely minimal impact on QB value. It may shuffle values within the position a bit, but it has very little effect on QB value in comparison to the other positions.

[The Holy Roller]

I'd take the #2 all day long. Choosing between LJ and SJ is hardly a bad thing either way you go. Same for picking at #4 since you get either Gore, Alexander, Addai, etc.

 

There is no bad draft spot really but the reality is that the further back you are in round one, the more challenged you are to get RBs that are highly productive and central to a good team. After about 18 or 19 years playing FF, I have concluded that I will always want the earlist draft pick that I can get. The earlier, the better. Playing the back-end swing (1.12 and 2.01) is kind of fun though since it lets you do some different things with two picks back to back. But all things equal - 1 is better than 2 is better than 3 is better than 4...

 

I noticed in a fantasy mag that the #2 pick in a draft DMD was in got quite an impressive squad. David even gave that team the nod. #2 looks like a very good spot.

[Roo]

Great topic. My personal take - there are always some big first round RB landmines. Those landmines are burried somewhere between the consensus 3 to 6 picks. LJ ALex Gore and maybe Westy/Addai is where everyone is leaning - at least two of those guys go "boom" this year.

 

Lots of big questions surround LJ and Alex, but their "big names" wil make coaches pick them (and so they don't feel stupid). Gore and Westy I actually like, but would "feel" early at three and carry injury bugs.

 

I feel more comfortable at the end of round 1 this year (besides 1 or 2 holes). The value and upside is better there with guys like Parker, Moroney, Ronnie, or grab Peyton of course.

[DJ Dade]

Great topic. My personal take - there are always some big first round RB landmines. Those landmines are burried somewhere between the consensus 3 to 6 picks. LJ ALex Gore and maybe Westy/Addai is where everyone is leaning - at least two of those guys go "boom" this year.

 

Thanks dude. I thought this would be a good topic for discussion....

 

I am starting to want westbrook at the 4 over gore and still stevan at the 2 over LJ. I think Westbrook's ranking is a little low at 11...

[bustedflush16]

Until LJ's situation clears up, I think the #3 slot will be a tough spot to pick. Do you pull the trigger on LJ with a hold-out, with a rebuilt OL, with an unproven QB, with a tough running schedule to start the year? Those are a lot of bad vibes to take at #3. All that being said, if LJ doesn't hold-out for a prolonged period, I think people are nuts to jump off his bandwagon so quickly.

 

As for #4, Gore is the pick.

[I'm Rick James Bitch]

I would have no problem taking Manning as a late 1st rounder. Did that last year and won a big $$$ league. I took him 10th and watched almost the entire league scramble every week trying to mix and match QB's. At the time,I could have selected Rudi, Ronnie, or Lamont. I have never seen anyone win a championship with those guys. It seems that every year, after the first three or so stud RB's are gone, you have about a 50/50 chance of picking a bust. Not so with Manning. I currently have him 9th on my sheet. Also, with Manning, I only needed a QB backup for just one week and later used that spot to store Ladell Betts who was huge for me.

[Belushi]

I think the 3rd pick is pretty tough this year. I don't give it to LJ. Coming off a record number of carries, questionable QB behind him, declining offensive line, and he gets to play the Dever, Oakland, and SD defences twice this season. Gore has potential, but only one good season and another new offensive co-ordinator. I'm guessing someone will surprise and jump into the top 3 that no one's expecting - Addai, Maroney, someone else?

[The Next Generation]

I think Westbrook has to be right in the mis of 5-8 this year in PPR leagues, no doubt.

 

If he can stay healthy absolutely.

 

 

What, you think he'll get hurt in training camp or preseason before you draft? Or, are you suggesting that drafters use some sort of crystal ball to advise them of BWs health status for the entire season right before they pick?