Roo Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 I know we are all a bit skeptical of this guy - almost a 'too good to be true' scenario, but I am having trouble finding reasons why this guy should not be up for late 1st round consideration. He's ranked 4th in RB fantasy points in 2006. Some facts: 1. Freakish abilities - big play potential, good hands 2. Young, second year (good for RBs), seems sturdy and durable 3. 15 TDs last year, almost 1400 total yards, 5.7 YPC (wow) 4. On only 200 touches! (compare this to 436 by Steven Jackson, 374 by Frank Gore who ended with similar/less fantasy points) While rumors fly about Taylor and MJD losing carries to Jones on the goal line, that isn't where MJD does his damage. Even if MJD has less average carries per game, you have to imagine they will get him the rock more than 200 times this year - especially considering they barely gave him the ball in the first 5 games of last season. And of course, if Taylor misses time (almost a give in), those carries will increase again. Considering he scored the same number of points with half the touches of the guys we consider studs, or frst rounders, what gives? Thoughts? Am I missing something? Or is just that people don't feel he isn't stud-worthy yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egret Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 With a first rounder, you like to grab the guy with the fewest question marks. The first round won't make your draft, but it can lose it for you. Always take the safest pick in the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 he is in my top 15 I think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 Well, I'll give you a few reasons why maybe he is not the best choice for a top ten draft pick. 1. Jaguars paid Fred Taylor a 3 year, $23 million contract extension in March for more than to watch MJD. Taylor is the starter. 2. Jones-Drew had a monster set of three games last year in weeks 14-16 where he gained 395 rushing yards, 103 receiving yards and 5 TDs. This happened when Fred Taylor was slowed by a hamstring strain. 3. His biggest game was when he had 166 yards and 2 TDs. This happened after Fred Taylor already had 131 yards on 9 carries with a bad hamstring in that game. 4. His second best game was in week 16 when he had 131 yards and 2 TDs against NE. It had one run for 74 yards and 18 carries for 67 yards. Taylow wa held out that week with the hammy problem. 5. Of games in common between the two runners while Taylor was healthy, Taylor had more rushing yards in 11 of 13 games. The only time MJD had more rushing yards was against the Colts in week 3 (29 more yards) and at KC (26 more yards) because Taylor hurt himself in that game and only had 7 carries. Basically, 1:1 had Taylor always rushing for more yardage and always being the starter. 6. Outside of those three games late last year with Taylor ailing, MJD only averaged 42 rushing yards per game. He was exciting and he was a very good scorer, but Taylor is the starter and primary runner and they just paid $23 million to keep it that way. You don't want to spend a first round pick on a guy that plays behind someone else you want to get injured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 Am I missing something? I think DMD nailed it -- MJD's a sexy pick, but he's also FTaylor's backup and shares the nest with a potential TD vulture in GJones -- giving the Jags a great running trio, but making MJD unlikely to deliver consistently in FF ... Unless something happens to Fred to open the door, he's likely looking at a FF role of excellent RB3, promising RB2, and risky RB1 ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelerMurf Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 I will be very happy when MJD goes first round or early 2nd in any of my leagues. Have fun watching Fred Taylor start and Jones coming in at all short yardage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 The 200 touches is the exact reason why he isn't a first rounder. You need a significantly higher amount to be taken in that class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted July 5, 2007 Share Posted July 5, 2007 What you're not understanding is that MJD has the talent but there's no need to make him a big carry guy. JAX has Taylor who was a very good RB (5.0 YPC) last year and will get back Jones this year who was a servicable runner at the FB position and versatile enough as a RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roo Posted July 5, 2007 Author Share Posted July 5, 2007 (edited) Thank you for all the points, there certainly needs to be some caution applied. I know he had a streak of games (when Taylor was slowed/injured), but there were still 10 TDs outside of those games. (yes no?) I guess the bottom line is you don't want your #1 in a RBBC with limited carries. Even though he'll probably still do well running WITH Taylor, you can't expect #4 numbers unless Taylor misses time again. (not a bad gamble you have to admit) But for the above arguments to work, you have to be arguing that he will actually have LESS carries right? Because he doesn't need alot of carries to be a top 5 RB aparently. Edited July 5, 2007 by Roo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 MJD has played a very minimal amount of games where the defense's entire scheme was built around stopping him. He will face that kind of attention 16 times this year. I don't think it is wise to expect him to repeat last season's TD total. As was hinted before, they don't need to give him the carries that a stud fantasy player would warrant. He is plenty effective without them. Heck, I'm really high on the kid myself (he put up 3 hun on my UW Huskies), and I did select him in the only draft I have done this season where he slid just a bit, but if there had been more money on the line in this league I would have definitely taken someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitbull739 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 One of these days Fragile Fred will just go away and make drafting a Jag RB so much easier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 One of these days Fragile Fred will just go away and make drafting a Jag RB so much easier. and at least they already have the replacement too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReturnToSender Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 You grab him, best to grab Fragile Freddy too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbimm Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 You grab him, best to grab Fragile Freddy too. I tried that. Damm Keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 If you're going back ups Betts did awful well last year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roo Posted July 6, 2007 Author Share Posted July 6, 2007 If you're going back ups Betts did awful well last year too. Definately worth a good look too in my opinion. Just not as dynamic or dangerous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 One of these days Fragile Fred will just go away and make drafting a Jag RB so much easier. I think you should look at Freddy's stats the past 5 seasons... 2002 16 starts 1300 yards 2003 16 Starts 1572 tards 2004 14 starts 1224 yards 2005 11 starts 787 yards 2006 15 starts 1146 yards Is that a crappy guy? Jim Brown said he is the best RB in the league... ever heard of him? Ever hear of this guy? Lofa Tatupu offered up this nugget, when he called Fred Taylor the best running back in the NFL. The all-pro Seattle linebacker told us, "Frank Gore, who always plays great against us, is the third-best running back. LaDainian (Tomlinson) is second. But Taylor is clearly No. 1. You know where he is going and you cannot stop him. That's the best thing you can say about a running back. He was outrunning our cornerbacks and breaking tackles from the front seven. Taylor is the ultimate blend of power and speed. And I've played all these guys, played Steven Jackson, Edgerrin James, all of them. I'm telling you — Fred Taylor is the best running back in the league." http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7117326 Fred is gonna get 1500+ yards this season... he may get close to 2K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumpin Johnies Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 What you're not understanding is that MJD has the talent but there's no need to make him a big carry guy. JAX has Taylor who was a very good RB (5.0 YPC) last year and will get back Jones this year who was a servicable runner at the FB position and versatile enough as a RB. You still a Mike Vick fan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 I think you grab him as a RB2 with the hope of upside but not a RB1 for the reasons already mentioned. While many have stated MJD probably won't do what he did last year, neither will Fragile Fred most likely. MJD is a play maker that will force Jacksonville to get him on the field. Plus he's heavily involved in the passing game so don't forget that too. Yeah he won't get as many touches as we would like but neither does Westbrook to a lesser extent but they both light up the fantasy scoreboard. I also wouldn't get too caught up in the 3 year/23 million dollar extension Taylor got. Who knows if the cobntract is back ended, full of incentives or a token of appreciation for his career in Jacksonville. For all we know, Fred might not even make it to the end of that contract with the Jags. He could get cut, forced to re-structure, etc. I really just think the Jags know they have a potent RB combination that works very well and keeps both men fresh and didn't want to change what works. That stinks for MJD owners who want more touches but also makes him more explosive. The kid is a stud and will find a way to put up good numbers regardless of his touch total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 You still a Mike Vick fan? Not any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROYALWITCHEESE Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 I know we are all a bit skeptical of this guy - almost a 'too good to be true' scenario, but I am having trouble finding reasons why this guy should not be up for late 1st round consideration. He's ranked 4th in RB fantasy points in 2006. Some facts: 1. Freakish abilities - big play potential, good hands 2. Young, second year (good for RBs), seems sturdy and durable 3. 15 TDs last year, almost 1400 total yards, 5.7 YPC (wow) 4. On only 200 touches! (compare this to 436 by Steven Jackson, 374 by Frank Gore who ended with similar/less fantasy points) While rumors fly about Taylor and MJD losing carries to Jones on the goal line, that isn't where MJD does his damage. Even if MJD has less average carries per game, you have to imagine they will get him the rock more than 200 times this year - especially considering they barely gave him the ball in the first 5 games of last season. And of course, if Taylor misses time (almost a give in), those carries will increase again. Considering he scored the same number of points with half the touches of the guys we consider studs, or frst rounders, what gives? Thoughts? Am I missing something? Or is just that people don't feel he isn't stud-worthy yet? There are many ways to describe MJD, but "freakish abilities" is not one of them. He will likely see the same amount of touches with many less TDs and less ypc. That, IMO, makes him a second rounder... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 (edited) I didn't read any of the posts, but I do want to comment on MJD. I had him last year and was very happy to have him. Won my big money league with him in fact (having LT didn't hurt though). But..... the guy is small and splitting carries with at least Fred Taylor and quite possibly Greg Jones this year as well. Teams will plan schemes quite a bit better for him this year too. I don't think he comes anywhere close to last year's numbers and hope one of my other auction league owners feel he's 1st round value and spends accordingly. Edited August 17, 2007 by Cunning Runt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 (edited) I didn't read any of the posts, but I do want to comment on MJD. I had him last year and was very happy to have him. Won my big money league with him in fact (having LT didn't hurt though). But..... the guy is small and splitting carries with at least Fred Taylor and quite possibly Greg Jones this year as well. Teams will plan schemes quite a bit better for him this year too. I don't think he comes anywhere close to last year's numbers and hope one of my other auction league owners feel he's 1st round value and spends accordingly. I totally agree. I had had to choose 3 keepers between SJAX, Westbrook, Harrison, and MJD. We had to choose keepers a few weeks back when Westy first started missing training camp and nobody knew what was going on for sure, and I still kept Westbrook over MJD for the reasons you stated. I'd rather have Fred Taylor in the 5th or 6th round than I would MJD in the 2nd. Jones is going to be getting the goal-line carries this year. So MJD will not be the TD machine he was last year, and his yardage won't be much better than Taylors if any. Edited August 17, 2007 by Perchoutofwater Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 Jones is going to be getting the goal-line carries this year. Where on allah's green earth did you pull this absolute pile of schit covered lies from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roo Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Where on allah's green earth did you pull this absolute pile of schit covered lies from? Yeah those rumors started early on this year, but I don't really see that being concrete. For me, there's no evidence behind saying MJD will do anything less than he did last year. Same team, same offense, same player. If anything his role should increase (didn't he start off on special teams last year). To say he will put up lower numbers to me means that you think he will get less touches. I don't think the Jags have any reason to give him less touches, even IF (that's a big IF) Freddy stays healthy all year. Why is Bush drafted higher? (just throwing that out there) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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