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Trade Advice


Brentastic
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In my big money league - I scored LT with the first pick in the draft. I have been talking with another owner about trading him LT. Here's our final agreement if I decide to pull the trigger:

 

I give - LT2 and scrub WR (James Jones)

I get - Addai and Roy Williams

 

I so want to do this since crunching the numbers says "no brainer". However, I'm having a really hard time pulling the trigger only because it's LT. I had him last year also in this league and got 2nd. My thinking this year is this: I had Addai rated as my #3 so I would still get the 3rd best player on the board and a 2nd round pick for my 1st overall pick.

 

Should I do this trade?

 

E2A: I should also mention that we must start 3 WRs and I currently have: Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Mark Clayton as my starters. If I do this trade, Clayton would move to the bench and give me 3 outstanding starting WRs

E2Ab: I should also add that we get double points (12) for non-traditional TDs. So when a RB catches a TD it's 12 points. This league is not a PPR.

Edited by Brentastic
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My initial thought is do the trade. However, IF Tomlinson has a year close to last year, the drop off from him to Addai could be more than what you gain by inserting Williams over Clayton. Addai is a very sexy pick this year, but he still has to prove it. LT has proven it. I actually think Clayton is poised to have a nice season, but Roy is obviously better.

 

My advice...keep LT.

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In my big money league - I scored LT with the first pick in the draft. I have been talking with another owner about trading him LT. Here's our final agreement if I decide to pull the trigger:

 

I give - LT2 and scrub WR (James Jones)

I get - Addai and Roy Williams

 

I so want to do this since crunching the numbers says "no brainer". However, I'm having a really hard time pulling the trigger only because it's LT. I had him last year also in this league and got 2nd. My thinking this year is this: I had Addai rated as my #3 so I would still get the 3rd best player on the board and a 2nd round pick for my 1st overall pick.

 

Should I do this trade?

 

E2A: I should also mention that we must start 3 WRs and I currently have: Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Mark Clayton as my starters. If I do this trade, Clayton would move to the bench and give me 3 outstanding starting WRs

 

 

PM sent-Peace PD

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In my big money league - I scored LT with the first pick in the draft. I have been talking with another owner about trading him LT. Here's our final agreement if I decide to pull the trigger:

 

I give - LT2 and scrub WR (James Jones)

I get - Addai and Roy Williams

 

I so want to do this since crunching the numbers says "no brainer". However, I'm having a really hard time pulling the trigger only because it's LT. I had him last year also in this league and got 2nd. My thinking this year is this: I had Addai rated as my #3 so I would still get the 3rd best player on the board and a 2nd round pick for my 1st overall pick.

 

Should I do this trade?

 

E2A: I should also mention that we must start 3 WRs and I currently have: Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Mark Clayton as my starters. If I do this trade, Clayton would move to the bench and give me 3 outstanding starting WRs

Addai will not be sharing carries this year with anyone. Kenton Keith will have mop up duty. So you are getting a full-time starting RB in return for LT. The upgrade at WR is obvious, although I am concerned that Detroit will not be as productive as many think since their running game is gonna stink at least at the start of the year.

 

My one area of concern is injuries. LT has proven to be pretty durable. Addai has never been a full-time starter. I guess you can look at it as LT being "due" for an injury . . . :D But I do think that it is doubtful that LT has a year like he did last season. If you look at it, the best players tend to run in cycles. 3-4 very good years before there is someone else.

 

If you feel like taking a risk, make that trade. If you aren't a gambler, don't.

 

I think I would do it.

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My initial thought is do the trade. However, IF Tomlinson has a year close to last year, the drop off from him to Addai could be more than what you gain by inserting Williams over Clayton. Addai is a very sexy pick this year, but he still has to prove it. LT has proven it. I actually think Clayton is poised to have a nice season, but Roy is obviously better.

 

My advice...keep LT.

I agree, however part of the reason I would do this is to protect against injury - spreading LT's points over two players. Nearly every stud RB endures some kind of injury during a stretch of greatness. LT is going on his 6th (?) or so year of being the man and am kind of fearing the inevitable. I know there have been a few greats that have not had an injury during their prime (Sanders, Brown, Payton, Smith) but it seems most do. This may not be a popular reason to do a trade, but I play a lot off of trends just as much as stats - history don't lie.

 

Thanks for the post.

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Addai will not be sharing carries this year with anyone. Kenton Keith will have mop up duty. So you are getting a full-time starting RB in return for LT. The upgrade at WR is obvious, although I am concerned that Detroit will not be as productive as many think since their running game is gonna stink at least at the start of the year.

 

My one area of concern is injuries. LT has proven to be pretty durable. Addai has never been a full-time starter. I guess you can look at it as LT being "due" for an injury . . . :D But I do think that it is doubtful that LT has a year like he did last season. If you look at it, the best players tend to run in cycles. 3-4 very good years before there is someone else.

 

If you feel like taking a risk, make that trade. If you aren't a gambler, don't.

 

I think I would do it.

I didn't see this prior to responding to Puddy's post.

 

But this is exactly why I would be doing the trade. I love LT as much as anybody which is what is preventing me from pulling the trigger.

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I would keep LT..Your 2 wrs are very good IMO I wouldnt risk trading one of the best RBs in the history of fantasy football for an upgrade at 3rd wr since you already have 2 good ones..Im not dismissing Addai but still its LT we are talking about here..He can single handedly win you games on any given week..

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Here is LT's career:

 

YEAR TEAM G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD

2001 SDG 16 339 1236 3.6 54 10

2002 SDG 16 372 1683 4.5 76 14

2003 SDG 16 313 1645 5.3 73 13

2004 SDG 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17

2005 SDG 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18

2006 SDG 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28

Career 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100

 

 

Look at all those carries - just saying.....

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I would keep LT..Your 2 wrs are very good IMO I wouldnt risk trading one of the best RBs in the history of fantasy football for an upgrade at 3rd wr since you already have 2 good ones..Im not dismissing Addai but still its LT we are talking about here..He can single handedly win you games on any given week..

Totally agree with you - it's more about protecting against proven history - All of his carries scare me and this trade would be more of an insurance policy.

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Here is LT's career:

 

YEAR TEAM G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD

2001 SDG 16 339 1236 3.6 54 10

2002 SDG 16 372 1683 4.5 76 14

2003 SDG 16 313 1645 5.3 73 13

2004 SDG 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17

2005 SDG 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18

2006 SDG 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28

Career 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100

Look at all those carries - just saying.....

 

 

He is a freak of nature and I would stay with him..No one ever knows if the injury bug is going to strike but if it doesnt he should put up gaudy numbers again

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No way in heck.

 

Roy is not a top-10 stud (IM0) he is not a 2nd round pick.

 

This is getting closer to what I would trade TL for maybe SJ plus SS or LJ plus TO

 

I just don't value Roy enough for me to think this is a great deal.

 

What I mean is number 2 or 3 RB blus number 1-3 WR

 

Looks like Adda is 3 or 4th best RB and Roy probably below a bunch of guys.

 

If LT has the same year as last year it's a bad trade. If LT has the same year as 05 or 04 it's an OK trade.

 

I think (IMO) you may be better off not trading the best player in the league.

Edited by rai
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No way in heck.

 

Roy is not a top-10 stud (IM0) he is not a 2nd round pick.

 

This is getting closer to what I would trade TL for maybe SJ plus SS or LJ plus TO

 

I just don't value Roy enough for me to think this is a great deal.

 

What I mean is number 2 or 3 RB blus number 1-3 WR

 

Looks like Adda is 3 or 4th best RB and Roy probably below a bunch of guys.

 

If LT has the same year as last year it's a bad trade. If LT has the same year as 05 or 04 it's an OK trade.

 

I think (IMO) you may be better off not trading the best player in the league.

 

LT will not do what he did last year.

Roy Williams, IMO, is a top 5 WR this season.

Addai, IMO, is a top 5 RB.

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I made a similar trade in reverse. I traded for LT in a local. I gave up SJax and Colston for LT. Tomlinson is as close to a sure thing as there is in fantasy football. He's the only RB that doesn't have a couple question marks. Barring injury, you know what you are going to get with LT. You don't give that up.

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LT will not do what he did last year.

Roy Williams, IMO, is a top 5 WR this season.

Addai, IMO, is a top 5 RB.

 

 

It sort of looks like you have your mind made up..IMO you are overthinking the amount of carries LT has..Roy is a very solid wr but I agree with Rai..You would have to offer a bigger stud wr for me to make that deal

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I made a similar trade in reverse. I traded for LT in a local. I gave up SJax and Colston for LT. Tomlinson is as close to a sure thing as there is in fantasy football. He's the only RB that doesn't have a couple question marks. Barring injury, you know what you are going to get with LT. You don't give that up.

 

 

Exactly

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LT will not do what he did last year.

Roy Williams, IMO, is a top 5 WR this season.

Addai, IMO, is a top 5 RB.

Roy is a top-5 WR?

 

Last year (points per start) he was 12th, behind Driver, Evans, Holt, Chad, TJ, Colston, Wayne, Jackson, TO, SS and Harrison

 

You have him jumping past 7 of those guys ?

 

 

Last year Roy was in the range of Burress, Walker and Fitz

 

 

I agree there is not a lotof dif from Marvin to Roy (3 points per game) but there will MOST LIKELY be more than that between LT and Addai

 

Last year LT was equal to TO and Harrison together, worse case take him down to 2000 and 20 and he's still at 20 points per game Frank Gore was at 17 points per, LJ 20 ppg and SJ 20 ppg

 

LT was 26 ppg and barring injury will be at 20+ points per this year (IMO) while best case for Addai is 20 ppg

Edited by rai
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It sort of looks like you have your mind made up..IMO you are overthinking the amount of carries LT has..Roy is a very solid wr but I agree with Rai..You would have to offer a bigger stud wr for me to make that deal

You may be right. I am totally approaching this deal based on history and past trends only. Edge, Alexander, Westy, Holmes, Faulk.... - all of these guys have been injured during their prime - I know LT is different and special but it's hard to ignore.

 

And actually, I don't think I will pull the trigger because my man-love for LT is strong. But I do like the number crunching aspect of this trade - it's intriguing to say the least.

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ahaha...I am in the same dillemma with trading SJax...

 

it's tough to give up those points...but deep down you feel like you are putting all your eggs in one basket....

 

I am high on Addai this year and would consider doing the trade....but it's tough....

 

and while I have Roy inside my top 10....top 5 is a bit much....I have him about 7th/8th and that is still nice to go with what you have...

 

 

considering the mileage that LT has endured....and that plays a HUGH factor in my decision making....I would do the trade since you will spread out your options that help you win on a weekly basis....

 

hopefully this works out for you.....it sounds like a tough decision to make....especially in a money league where you have arguably the best player in fantasy...

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Roy is a top-5 WR?

 

Last year (points per start) he was 12th, behind Driver, Evans, Holt, Chad, TJ, Colston, Wayne, Jackson, TO, SS and Harrison

 

You have him jumping past 7 of those guys ?

He was the 10th best in my league - and yes, I think he will move into the top 5. Driver, Evans, Holt, Colston and D-Jax will not be better than Roy, IMO. In fact all of the guys I just mentioned have hugh risks this year, Evans is the only guy that has little risk compared to the others.

 

Perhaps you have not paid attention to what a Martz #1 will do for your fantasy team. Last year was Roy's first year with Martz - now him and Kitna are in their 2nd year under Martz - I foresee mucho fantasy points.

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You may be right. I am totally approaching this deal based on history and past trends only. Edge, Alexander, Westy, Holmes, Faulk.... - all of these guys have been injured during their prime - I know LT is different and special but it's hard to ignore.

 

And actually, I don't think I will pull the trigger because my man-love for LT is strong. But I do like the number crunching aspect of this trade - it's intriguing to say the least.

 

I concur.....I would be on the fence for a long time over this one...

 

even saying I'd do the trade...I could easily flip-flop 5 minutes from now..

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I concur.....I would be on the fence for a long time over this one...

 

even saying I'd do the trade...I could easily flip-flop 5 minutes from now..

:D

 

True dat! I've flip-flopped about once every 5 minutes since this deal was proposed. As always Avernus, I am on the same page with you. If there is anyone on these boards that thinks like me in fantasy terms it's definitely you. So basically, you're advice isn't helping much :D

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You may be right. I am totally approaching this deal based on history and past trends only. Edge, Alexander, Westy, Holmes, Faulk.... - all of these guys have been injured during their prime - I know LT is different and special but it's hard to ignore.

 

And actually, I don't think I will pull the trigger because my man-love for LT is strong. But I do like the number crunching aspect of this trade - it's intriguing to say the least.

You're not giving LT enough credit. He's in the same class as Barry and Emmitt. Would you have given up Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith for Herman Moore and Dorsey Levens?

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:wacko:

 

True dat! I've flip-flopped about once every 5 minutes since this deal was proposed. As always Avernus, I am on the same page with you. If there is anyone on these boards that thinks like me in fantasy terms it's definitely you. So basically, you're advice isn't helping much :D

 

ahahaa what can I say? :D

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You're not giving LT enough credit. He's in the same class as Barry and Emmitt. Would you have given up Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith for Herman Moore and Dorsey Levens?

That's funny. Depends - if we're talking about the 1995 version of Herman Moore and the 1997 version of Dorsey Levens then I probably would!!

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