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The Race to the Bottom (and the Top)


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The (very) early projections are in.


Based on a teams' win/loss % and the win/loss % of their future opponents, I've projected final win and loss totals for each team.


Note that, going forward, as more games are played, the analysis that follows will change quite a bit.


Teams get on streaks ... hard (or easy) games are played leaving easy (or hard) games to come ... etc ...


Consider this fodder for conversation.


Or, fodder for the burn pile.


Either way...


So, as it sits right now, the top ten picks in the draft next year will be:


1. Miami (2.7 wins) -- currently 0-5

2. St. Louis (2.8 wins) -- currently 0-5

3. New Orleans (3.4 wins) -- currently 0-4

4. New York Jets (4.7 wins) -- currently 1-4

5. Atlanta (5.1 wins) -- currently 1-4

6t. Bufalo (5.2 wins) -- currently 1-4

6t. Minnesota (5.2 wins) -- currently 1-3

8. Philadelphia (5.4 wins) -- currently 1-3

9. Cincinnati (6.0 wins) -- currently 1-3

10. San Diego (6.5 wins) -- currently 2-3



And the top twelve teams (twelve teams because twelve teams make the playoffs, not paying attention to conference affiliations) would be:

1. New England (13.3 wins -- easier SoS looking forward than Dallas or Indy) -- currently 5-0

2. Dallas (12.9 wins) -- currently 5-0

3. Indianapolis (12.8 wins) -- currently 5-0

4. Pittsburgh (11.7 wins) -- currently 4-1

5. Green Bay (11.2 wins) -- currently 4-1

6. Tennessee (10.3 wins) -- currently 3-1

7t. Seattle (10.0 wins -- easiest SoS looking forward...by a mile) -- currently 3-2

7t. Washington (10.0 wins) -- currently 3-1

9. Jacksonville (9.9 wins) -- currently 3-1

10. Arizona (9.6 wins) -- currently 3-2

11. New York Giants (9.3 wins) -- currently 3-2

12. Baltimore (9.1 wins) -- currently 3-2

Edited by muck
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:D All these DallAss fans thought a top 5 pick was a for sure thing.

I wasn't unhappy with the trade but sure was hoping that it wouldn't be a top 5 pick. Not because I wish them ill will, but because then it meant that we've made entirely no progress with all the moves the last few seasons.

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After a couple of more games, this will start to take a little more shape...


Frankly, not enough games have been played to make this really very good, but over the next couple of weeks, I'll keep updating this.


NOTE: I still expect KC to have a top 10 (maybe a top 5) pick when it's all said and done.




Most likely to NOT pick in the top 10 when it's all said and done: Cincy, Philly and SD

Most likely to NOT finish in the top 12 when it's all said and done: Tennessee, Seattle, Arizona and Baltimore

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I'm still not ruling out a Top 5 pick that we'll be getting from the Brownies but it'll more likely be Top 10. :D

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