Sweet 16

[bushwacked]

And finally, Texas will destroy a surprising Stanford squad... showing they are definitely a national championship contender.

 

[wildcat2334]

yeah - D3 - I like the transplanted UT homerism, but destory Stanford?? not a chance- expect a battle- dem Lopez boys are legit. Gonna be a test on who steps up more, Stan guards, or UT bigs, b/c both will have their hands full.

 

I actually like Stanford here............... I think Stanford gets it done

[SheikYerbuti]

UCLA keeps hot and wins in a barnburner against the Heels.

 

First time "UCLA" and "barnburner" have been used in the same sentence this century.

[Randall]

God I wish I would have logged in earlier to get a piece of that prediction.

 

All my friends on the West Coast were telling me how UNC hadn't seen anything like what they were going to see. Well, that may be true, but this team is freaking loaded. Loaded.

 

 

If Lawton stays healthy I don't see anyone stopping them. They rotate so many good fresh legs in. It always seems unfair.

 

I would like to see a Kansas/UNC game in the Final Four though.

[detlef]

UNC is very beatable and nobody, nobody, will beat the Kansas Jayhawks.

 

Check the time stamps on this one.

They're a college team, of course they are beatable. But anyone who says "so and so has more pieces" is just plain wrong. In terms of pieces, nobody has more than UNC. That doesn't assure them of cutting down the nets in San Antonio but they're not going to lose because they come across a team with "more pieces". I invite anyone to illustrate how. And no Professor, 'cause I said so will not do. Your bitter little hater act does not count as an argument.

 

The way to beat UNC is the way Duke did earlier in the season, have Lawson be out with an injury, run a small line-up all game, concede the big men their points inside and shoot 3s with as high a percentage as Tyler is hitting jumpers in the paint. That's not exactly something that's very easy to duplicate. Though I will admit, the serious chink in UNC's armor is guarding the 3. It drives me to distraction.

 

I laugh at anyone who's watched both UNC and UCLA play in this tourney who insist that UCLA will out class them or "continue to roll". Don't they actually need to start to roll before they can continue to? A&M game? Two of UCLA's players account for 40 of their whopping 51 pts? Letting WKU back into the game last night while UNC/WSU was over with 15 minutes to go? The same WSU team that was going to expose UNC because "they hadn't faced a D that good all year".

 

Kansas should be a great game, provided both teams make it that far (though Kansas could do so without playing a single team better than an 8 seed). Should Kansas win, your "time stamp" will make you look good. Well, it would if you hadn't already "time stamped" the fact that WSU would also beat them and they got run out of the gym.

[nhoops]

Lets Go 'Nova!!!!

 

Although not a star, losing Drummand may hurt them defensively.

Edited March 28, 2008 by nhoops

[Randall]

The Wisconsin Badgers are gonna run them all off the court.

 

Sorry I got carried away. I wish I had a good homer team.

[theprofessor]

Since you seem to be referencing me in this rambling post, please point out where I said "so and so has more pieces" than any other team.

 

The same WSU team that was going to expose UNC because "they hadn't faced a D that good all year".

 

I'll wait on this one too.

 

Well, it would if you hadn't already "time stamped" the fact that WSU would also beat them and they got run out of the gym.

 

Here's my post .... If you're going to try to pick me apart please show a little integrity and spew some facts for once.

 

Guarantee that the only breeze the Heels will be feeling tonight is the breeze when they walk home. WSU is too sound defensively for Carolina to "run over" them as you say. I think this one will be closer than you boys down South think, even playing in your own backyard. The transition will be the key, if this turns into a half court game, you're in for a surprise.

 

I have to give credit to NC they were terrific on the defensive side of the ball last night. With all the talk about WSU's defense the Tar Heels played D like they were being overlooked. They have great depth and definately are one of the favorites. I'm looking forward to the game Saturday with Louisville. Great athletes on the floor all night and it should be an exciting game.

Edited March 28, 2008 by theprofessor

[detlef]

Well, for starters, don't flatter yourself, I was responding to a variety of people's comments, not just yours. As I said in my post game comments, I heard it up and down from my friend on the West Coast that I was getting too fired up about the Heels because they hadn't played a team with a D yet and that WSU was going to be a rude awakening. Rude it was, as Bojangles only gives out free biscuits when they top 100, not when they beat a top 20 team that's supposedly going to shut them down by over 20.

 

As for the "more pieces"?

 

From wildcat:

No doubt Carolina has looked great so far, I just think KU and UCLA have more pieces and would matchup well with UNC

 

As for UCLA staying hot?

 

From darin:

UCLA keeps hot and wins in a barnburner against the Heels.

Though I admit, I misquoted him. He said stay hot and I said "continue rolling". My bad.

 

None the less, you were quite simply wrong. You said it was going to be closer than we thought. I was certainly confident enough in them to lay the 9 pts that bodog was selling but was hardly disappointed that they "only" won a Sweet 16 game against the highest seed they could have faced in what was considered the strongest region (which was sort of proven to at least have the best 1-4) by 21 pts.

 

Perhaps I took your "only breeze they'll feel is when they walk home" comment as saying WSU would win (something I'm rather certain you would have claimed was calling your shot had they done so). It is not a huge stretch to think that "walk home" implies being eliminated from the tourney.

 

Oh, and save the "show some facts for once" BS. I've peed facts all over you enough times that I shouldn't have to endure that sort nonsense from you.

Edited March 28, 2008 by detlef

[wildcat2334]

UCLA does have more pieces - I think they have the better lineup, more options and play better overall D - Love will negate Hansbrough, who is easily the most overrated player I have seen in years.

 

UNC is shooting it extremely well, it is not goin to continue

 

WSU struggled on offense, and couldn't make shots- credit UNC's D. But any UNC fan who wasn't worried about the pace and defensive intensity in the first half is a liar - WSU did a nice job of turning it into a grinder- Green just hit key 3;s - moving forward

 

 

The way to beat UNC is the way Duke did earlier in the season, have Lawson be out with an injury, run a small line-up all game

 

flat out cocky and a dumb statement- UCLA can/will overpower UNC and play their game just fine -

[detlef]

UCLA does have more pieces - I think they have the better lineup, more options and play better overall D - Love will negate Hansbrough, who is easily the most overrated player I have seen in years.

 

UNC is shooting it extremely well, it is not goin to continue

 

WSU struggled on offense, and couldn't make shots- credit UNC's D. But any UNC fan who wasn't worried about the pace and defensive intensity in the first half is a liar - WSU did a nice job of turning it into a grinder- Green just hit key 3;s - moving forward

The way to beat UNC is the way Duke did earlier in the season, have Lawson be out with an injury, run a small line-up all game

 

flat out cocky and a dumb statement- UCLA can/will overpower UNC and play their game just fine -

I'll give you this, the bolded statement was some hyperbole, but it's more true than plenty would like to admit. I mean, you guys can't keep changing the story. Wasn't WSU's grinding style and smothering D supposed to at least hurt them if not slow them down? I mean, it's a far, far cry from hanging with a team for the first 15 minutes and actually controlling the tempo of the game. Once again, they were up by 23 pts with 10 minutes to go! How badly did they have to throttle this team to convince the haters? The same haters who seem more than happy to look past the fact that UCLA has looked anything but great in their last two games. That's the amazing thing. You have to go with what you see. People questioned UNC because the league was down and that they weren't running away with games. Well, when your either missing or getting 50% from a player who's a sure fire 1st rounder for a month in the season and "only" win close games in a major conference...

 

Then it was because they hadn't played a team with a D. OK, now they have. Point to a wealth of things that UCLA has done to answer any questions we might have had about them?

 

One of the biggest misconceptions about UNC by those who haven't seen them play enough is that they're just another one of those running teams that will wilt as soon as somebody smacks them in the mouth. The fact is, pushing them around is the last way you're going to beat them. They can shuffle Thompson/Hansbrough/Stephenson and bang with anybody. In fact, you're actually going to have better luck going small and running them out of the gym. "Overrated" Tyler plays every game with dudes hanging all over him. I have no illusions that he his the best basketball player in the college game. However, he is either the best or about the best college basketball player in the country. There's a difference. At the next level, he may be no more than Mark Madsen with a bit more skill but right now it is March 2008 and he's leading us to the NC game.

 

So, on page 2 I broke UNC's pieces down piece by piece. I think it's only fair that you do the same.

[detlef]

Oh, and btw, the team that scares me more than pretty much anyone out there right now is the one we've got on Saturday. Of course, they could have a serious gauntlet ahead of them. If they face Louisville, Kansas, and UCLA in a row...

[wildcat2334]

Oh, and btw, the team that scares me more than pretty much anyone out there right now is the one we've got on Saturday. Of course, they could have a serious gauntlet ahead of them. If they face Louisville, Kansas, and UCLA in a row...

 

 

werd- Louisville is gonna give them all they can handle. Big edge to UCLA in experience, back to back final 4's - and I think they are a better defensive team, and while these close games are not all positive, I give them the edge in a close, late game.

 

Collison- one of the best PG in the country- probly a wash with Lawson-

Westbrook - lottery pick, the best perimeter defender in the country- pure athlete

Shipp - probly their best scorer and shot maker-

Mbah A Moute - excellent defender, can gurad anyone on on the floor-

Love - outstanding in all phases guy just continues to amaze -

 

Mata, Keefe and ABoya - give them size, rebounding and D-

 

they are thin off the bench in the backcourt -

 

gonna be a great stretch run

[detlef]

werd- Louisville is gonna give them all they can handle. Big edge to UCLA in experience, back to back final 4's - and I think they are a better defensive team, and while these close games are not all positive, I give them the edge in a close, late game.

 

Collison- one of the best PG in the country- probly a wash with Lawson-

Westbrook - lottery pick, the best perimeter defender in the country- pure athlete

Shipp - probly their best scorer and shot maker-

Mbah A Moute - excellent defender, can gurad anyone on on the floor-

Love - outstanding in all phases guy just continues to amaze -

 

Mata, Keefe and ABoya - give them size, rebounding and D-

 

they are thin off the bench in the backcourt -

 

gonna be a great stretch run

Nice recap.

Given our geographic situations, you've got a much better handle on who the Bruins are running out there just as I do with who UNC's got. I'll still need to see it for myself (and I haven't thus far in this tourney) that anyone's got more pieces. As many perhaps, but when your team is running 10 guys out there who can all contribute in some significant manner and has a few elite players to anchor the team, it's hard to get sold the idea that somebody's going to beat them without out-playing them.

 

I would also argue that so far in the tourney, there's been a better blueprint laid down on how to beat UCLA than UNC.

[Gopher]

yeah - D3 - I like the transplanted UT homerism, but destory Stanford?? not a chance- expect a battle- dem Lopez boys are legit. Gonna be a test on who steps up more, Stan guards, or UT bigs, b/c both will have their hands full.

 

I actually like Stanford here............... I think Stanford gets it done

+1

This is the one game that I'm staying away from (Stanford +2). I could really see it going either way. Stanford's known for it's big men, but the guards are really underrated, while the opposite is true for Texas. I think the winner will be determined by who plays better, the Texas frontcourt or the Stanford backcourt.

 

UCLA does have more pieces - I think they have the better lineup, more options and play better overall D - Love will negate Hansbrough, who is easily the most overrated player I have seen in years.

 

UNC is shooting it extremely well, it is not goin to continue

 

WSU struggled on offense, and couldn't make shots- credit UNC's D. But any UNC fan who wasn't worried about the pace and defensive intensity in the first half is a liar - WSU did a nice job of turning it into a grinder- Green just hit key 3;s - moving forward

 

UCLA MIGHT be better defensively, but the UNC defense is not as bad as people like to think. I honestly haven't seen a ton of either team this year (probably watched them each 5-7 times), but UCLA has been far from impressive in the majority of their wins that I've seen, especially recently. Now, there are two ways to look at that. One would be that they know how to win close games, which I think is true in a sense. The other, which I think became ultra-apparent last night, is that they don't know how to finish teams off like UNC has been doing. Collison and Love should have sat the last ten minutes of last night's game, but instead, they were tested and Collison fouled out. Why? Because, as much as people like to say that they're great defensively and "technically sound," they have a very bad habit of playing to the level of their opponent (at least lately), which could definitely hurt them now that they're going to be playing teams that are actually as talented as they are. Up until now, they have simply been underachieving against teams that they should handle easily. No disrespect to Texas A&M, WKU, etc., but UCLA plays just good enough to win, and that mentality is not going to get them a championship. Xavier has the frontcourt to give them some problems and enough weapons to beat them. Not saying they'll win, but I'll take the 10 points (in a 4-pt teaser) any day.

 

As far as having more "pieces", it depends on what pieces you're talking about. When I think of pieces, I think of weapons, and nobody in the nation has more talent throughout their entire roster, IMO, than UNC. Kansas is a close 2nd.

 

I won a fair amount last night... Had all of the winners picked correctly, but lost a little bit on the O/U in the UCLA game. Bet the under, and it looked good at the half (although I also bet on WKU to cover, which didn't looks so great). I had a feeling that, for WKU to come back and cover, I might lose the Under bet. Sure enough, 58 2nd-half points by WKU killed me. But, they covered. Also had the under on UNC, which was easy money.

 

Tonight, I'm liking the two Big Ten teams to cover (and win), and probably lean towards Villanova (not sure how much I think Kansas will win by, but I'm thinking somewhere in the 7-10 point range). Like I said, the TX-Stan game is the one of this round that I'm a bit scared of either way.

[detlef]

+1

This is the one game that I'm staying away from (Stanford +2). I could really see it going either way. Stanford's known for it's big men, but the guards are really underrated, while the opposite is true for Texas. I think the winner will be determined by who plays better, the Texas frontcourt or the Stanford backcourt.

UCLA MIGHT be better defensively, but the UNC defense is not as bad as people like to think. I honestly haven't seen a ton of either team this year (probably watched them each 5-7 times), but UCLA has been far from impressive in the majority of their wins that I've seen, especially recently. Now, there are two ways to look at that. One would be that they know how to win close games, which I think is true in a sense. The other, which I think became ultra-apparent last night, is that they don't know how to finish teams off like UNC has been doing. Collison and Love should have sat the last ten minutes of last night's game, but instead, they were tested and Collison fouled out. Why? Because, as much as people like to say that they're great defensively and "technically sound," they have a very bad habit of playing to the level of their opponent (at least lately), which could definitely hurt them now that they're going to be playing teams that are actually as talented as they are. Up until now, they have simply been underachieving against teams that they should handle easily. No disrespect to Texas A&M, WKU, etc., but UCLA plays just good enough to win, and that mentality is not going to get them a championship. Xavier has the frontcourt to give them some problems and enough weapons to beat them. Not saying they'll win, but I'll take the 10 points (in a 4-pt teaser) any day.

 

As far as having more "pieces", it depends on what pieces you're talking about. When I think of pieces, I think of weapons, and nobody in the nation has more talent throughout their entire roster, IMO, than UNC. Kansas is a close 2nd.

 

I won a fair amount last night... Had all of the winners picked correctly, but lost a little bit on the O/U in the UCLA game. Bet the under, and it looked good at the half (although I also bet on WKU to cover, which didn't looks so great). I had a feeling that, for WKU to come back and cover, I might lose the Under bet. Sure enough, 58 2nd-half points by WKU killed me. But, they covered. Also had the under on UNC, which was easy money.

 

Tonight, I'm liking the two Big Ten teams to cover (and win), and probably lean towards Villanova (not sure how much I think Kansas will win by, but I'm thinking somewhere in the 7-10 point range). Like I said, the TX-Stan game is the one of this round that I'm a bit scared of either way.

What was the O/U on UNC? Just curious because I've learned the hard way to stay away from that bet. When I have any luck at all (and was fortunate to have last nights games), it's with the spread.

[Gopher]

A little more in-depth thoughts on tonight's games:

 

Villanova

+625 +12 (-105) Over 144

Kansas

Leaning towards Villanova to cover, but Kansas should win this game by 7-10 points. Too many athletes, and they should be able to limit Reynolds' impact on the game and cause some problems for the other Villanova guard (freshman PG).

 

Davidson

+200 +5 (-105) Over 126.5

Wisconsin

Wisconsin plays GREAT defense, will not give up a lot of 2nd chance points to the smaller Davidson squad, and has the athletic guards who should be able to hang with Davidson's backcourt. Curry will still get his 25-30, but I see Wisconsin winning by double-digits. They're deeper and more fundamentally sound than Georgetown, and probably should have been a 2 seed instead of Duke. Don't get me started on the lack of respect for the Big 10.

 

MichiganSt

+175 +4.5 (-105) Over 136

MemphisU

MSU backcourt is deeper, more experienced, and shoots better free throws than Memphis. I think this will be a very close game, but I think Izzo's experience prevails and gets the Spartans through one more round.

 

Stanford

+115 +2 (-105) Over 134

Texas

Pick 'em game. If the Stanford backcourt can negate the TX guards, or at least hold them to 35-40% shooting, Stanford has a very good chance of advancing. On the contrary, should Texas be able to get one or both of the Lopez twins in foul trouble, they may win easily. I see this as being the 2nd close game of the evening.

 

O/U's - I have been leaning towards unders throughout most of the tournament, with some success. In this round, though, I would lean more towards the over in all four games. I'll probably stay away from them, though, and stick to the spread, money lines, and possibly do another 4- or 4.5-point teaser or two. In a 4-pointer, for example, I would go MSU +8.5, Wis -1, Vill +16, and if I had to pick a coulpe of O/U's, I would go with Vill/KU OVER 140 and MSU/Mem Over 132. A $50 five-team 4-point teaser on those five would pay $225, although while I was typing this, the Memphis and Kansas lines changed by a half-point in the underdogs' favor, meaning people are betting on the favorites. So, I might wait and see if it changes any more this afternoon, then decide.... right now, it's MSU +5 and Vill +12.5.

Edited March 28, 2008 by Gopher

[Gopher]

What was the O/U on UNC? Just curious because I've learned the hard way to stay away from that bet. When I have any luck at all (and was fortunate to have last nights games), it's with the spread.

I bet just a few minutes before tipoff, and it was 141.5 (I took the under). I learned the hard way last Friday to stay away from O/U's in general, but I still bet on one now and again when I'm pretty confident that I know who's going to win. I just had a felling that last night was going to be a 20-point win for UNC, and I didn't see it being an 85-65 type of game. I was thinking more 75-55 (final was 68-47, I believe).

 

The UCLA game was 134, and the half-time 41-20 score looked great from that perspective. WKU scored almost as many points in the 2nd half as both teams combined in the first, so I lost that one.

 

If Wisconsin wins tonight, and MSU loses by less than 9 (or wins), I'm in good shape for the two days. If the Big Ten gets knocked out, I'm down for this round.

 

The biggest thing I've learned is that the people who establish these numbers know far more about this than we do, especially when it comes to the O/U. I was being somewhat fececious when I said "Easy money" earlier, because I don't think there is such a thing with O/U's. It seems like they are rarely too far off, unless something wacko happens like WKU scoring 58 in the 2nd last night.

 

The other important thing is to force yourself to stay away from games where you see the line as being pretty accurate, rather than betting one way or the other. Like the TX/Stanford game for me this week. Could go either way. Should be some great games tonight (especially the late ones).

[darin3]

The key to tonight Stanfurd/UT game will be the names you're not accustomed to hearing as much as the Lopez brothers and the UT guards. I think Damion James and Gary Johnson (and to some degree Dexter Pittman) will be big in this game.

 

UT 78 - Stanfurd 62

[budlitebrad]

"blah blah blah... UNC... blah blah blah... UCLA... blah blah blah..."

 

Kansas cuts down the net.

[wildcat2334]

The key to tonight Stanfurd/UT game will be the names you're not accustomed to hearing as much as the Lopez brothers and the UT guards. I think Damion James and Gary Johnson (and to some degree Dexter Pittman) will be big in this game.

 

UT 78 - Stanfurd 62

 

 

have you watched Stanford?? at a minumim they are tough on D and hard to score against- I don't see a blowout at all.

 

considering the line is UT-2 , me thinks yer already hitting the lonestars.............

 

Stan gets it done in an ugly game........ Mitch Johnson and J. Hill step up in the Stan backcourt

 

Stan 72

Texas 67

[detlef]

The biggest thing I've learned is that the people who establish these numbers know far more about this than we do, especially when it comes to the O/U. I was being somewhat fececious when I said "Easy money" earlier, because I don't think there is such a thing with O/U's. It seems like they are rarely too far off, unless something wacko happens like WKU scoring 58 in the 2nd last night.

 

The other important thing is to force yourself to stay away from games where you see the line as being pretty accurate, rather than betting one way or the other. Like the TX/Stanford game for me this week. Could go either way. Should be some great games tonight (especially the late ones).

werd. I'm nearly certain that, all time I am down by a little over all. It's nice when you're on a little streak like I'm on (won my last 5 bets during the NFL play-offs and hadn't bet since last night where I won the two lines I chose. However, I know that I'm 50/50 at best and considering the vig, that don't get the job done.

 

The good news is that it doesn't take much action to make it interesting for me. I basically hate to lose, period. So, having anything at stake, even $10-$20 makes it fun for me. Last night, I had a combined $30 going and was still plenty fired up along the way. It's been that way with me forever and I honestly can't imagine that changing. The guy I first started betting with/through his on-line account is a multi-multi millionaire and he was the same way. Guy would get pissed if some meaningless basket pushed the score the wrong way against the spread even if he had $10 on it.

[theprofessor]

Oh, and save the "show some facts for once" BS. I've peed facts all over you enough times that I shouldn't have to endure that sort nonsense from you.

 

Yea, your definately a legend when it comes to the facts

[budlitebrad]

The biggest thing I've learned is that the mobsters that orchestrate point shaving know far more about this than we do.

 

Fixed.

[billay]

Haters

 

C'mon guys. It's not like us UNC supporters are going around bad mouthing every other team in the tournament. We're excited about our team and rightly so. So far, the Heels play has reinforced everything we've been saying about them all year long. They've only lost 2 games for chrissakes and 1 of those was to Dook, without Lawson. They are undefeated on the road. I don;t care who you are, if you play in a major league and only lose 2 games this far into the season, that means 1 thing, that you're a pretty f&cking good ballclub. I know you PAC-10 guys are tired of hearing about UNC and Hansbrough and the ACC, east coast bias and all that, but just because it's hackneyed doesn't mean it's not true. I keep hearing from you PAC-10 homers that nothing UNC has or has done can compare to what you have there out on the west coast. WSU was a decent ballclub, that's it. They didn't invent tight defense. And talk about their average points against all you want. It a reflection of tempo and style of play as much as it is their defensive prowace. People score a lot of points against UNC because UNC wants to get as many possessions as possible in a game. More possessions = more points. I'm not sure what's more impressive, scoring 110 and winning by 30 in an uptempo game, or putting up 70 and winning by 20 in a slow tempo game.

 

There are clearly a handful of thoroughbreds in college hoops this year. UNC, Kansas, UCLA and Memphis. I think Louisville and Texas are close. I'm more nervous about playing Louisville than most other teams in the tourney. If we win, and Kansas wins through, I worry that Roy might get all sentimental playing the Jayhawks. If we somehow were to win that game, I'd welcome the opportunity to play UCLA. I just think we're better than they are. I think Kevin Love is a fantastic player. UNC recruited him heavily too you know. If I'm a Bruin fan, however, I'm a little nervous tht my team is relying so heavily on a freshmen for offensive production. It's a long season and freshmen tend to hit the wall. Look at Hansbrough 2 years ago. Also, Isn't Moute hurt? UCLA has has some tight finishes, and while the only result that counts is who ends up with more points, its never a good sign to be struggling with weaker teams at this time of the year. It might mean nothing, but it also might mean something else.

 

As for the Heels. UNC runs a absolutely solid 8 deep, and can pull Will Graves into the game for short stretches to make it 9, and if things really get hairy, Mike Copeland is competent enough to not hurts us for a few minutes. That makes 10. UNC has won big, they have won tight. They have played 3 OT games (1 double OT) and won them all. Winning games like that matters. Best of all, UNC is playing its best basketball of the year right now Does any of this guarantee them a championship? no, of course not. It doesn;t even guarantee them another win, but when you guys come in here talking about some second rate pac-10 team is going to send them home or calling consensus POY Tyler Hansbrough overrated and "just another Mark Madsen", you need to take off the homer glasses and give the Heels a little respect. (bushwacked not withstanding)

 

Get your shots in now fellas, because there's a very real chance that, championship or no, UNC returns this entire squad next year, with the exception of Quentin Thomas. But Bobby Frasor (yeah remember him, our backup PG and #2 guard who we lost for the year back in December?) will be back. You think you heard alot about the Heels this year? Just wait.

 

ETA: My bad, it was bush who gave UNC some props not gts

Edited March 29, 2008 by billay