My field of 65...

[Gopher]

A lot could/will change with the majority of the conference tournaments still to be played, but here is my field of 65 as of Sunday evening:

 

ACC (6) - UNC, Wake, Duke, Florida St., Clemson, BC... NIT-bound: MD, Miami, VTech

America East (1) - Should be top-seed Binghamton, which faces 6-seed UMBC (15-16) in the final... NIT-bound: Vermont

Atlantic Sun (1) - Tournament winner East Tennessee State

Atlantic 10 (2) - Xavier, Dayton... NIT-bound: Rhode Island, Temple, Duquesne

Big East (7) - Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Nova, Marquette, Syracuse, WV... NIT-bound: Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Big Sky (1) - Conference winner only... Should be Weber State, which dominated conference play (15-1)... NIT-bound: Portland State

Big South (1) - Top seed Radford is in.

Big Ten (7) - Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State... NIT-bound: Minnesota

Big 12 (6) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas... NIT-bound: Kansas State, Nebraska

Big West (1) - Conference winner will get only bid.

Colonial (1) - Winner of VCU - George Mason championship game... NIT-bound: Loser of that game

Conference USA (1) - Memphis is in... Anyone else winning tourney would be a shock... NIT-bound: Tulsa, UAB

Horizon (1) - Like Memphis, Butler is in for sure... NIT-bound: Green Bay, Cleveland State

Ivy League (1) - Cornell is in (No conference tournament)

MAAC (1) - Top seed Siena will face winner of 2-seed Niagara and 3-seed Rider in the final... NIT-bound: Niagara

MAC (1) - Winner only

MEAC (1) - Winner only

Missouri Valley (2) - Northern Iowa wins conference tournament in OT, forcing Creighton to take at-large bid... NIT-bound: Illinois State

Mountain West (2) - BYU, Utah... NIT-bound: New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast (1) - Top seed Robert Morris faces #2 Mt. St. Mary's for the lone spot.

Ohio Valley (1) - Morehead State (19-15) won conference tournament.

Pac-10 (5) - Washington, UCLA, ASU, California, Arizona... NIT-bound: USC

Patriot (1) - Top seed American meets #2 Holy Cross for their only bid... American should go to NIT if they lose.

SEC (5) - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, Florida... NIT-bound - Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Southern (1) - Charleston faces Chattanooga for the final... NIT-bound: Davidson

Southland (1) - Conference winner only

Summit (1) - Conference winner only

Sun Belt (1) - Conference tournament still wide open... NIT-bound: W. Kentucky or Ark-Little Rock, whichever doesn't win tournament.

SWAC (1) - Conference winner only

WAC (1) - Utah State is in whether they win conference or not... NIT-bound: Nevada

West Coast (2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

 

I'll have 2 or 3 DVR's going non-stop all week... going to watch a lot of basketball in the next seven days. I'll try to update this daily, as things change. A couple of notes... Penn State was my final (65th) team in, which means I don't think they're actually going to make it unless they win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament. In other words, my gut feeling is that they get knocked out as soon as there is an upset in one of the mid-major tournaments, forcing another team to take that last at-large spot. Penn State lost a game yesterday, at Iowa, that they simply couldn't afford to lose.

 

I'm just doing this for kicks, to see how far off I am when everything is announced next Sunday... will update daily and try to add some "projected seeds" later as well. Feel free to comment if you like, although I would rather not have this thread turn into a "I can't believe you have x number of teams from -insert conference-... they suck" debate.

[Gopher]

All right... here's my projected field of 65, with an "educated guess" as to where they'll be seeded. Teams in bold are officially in, while teams in italics are teams who are favorites to win their conference tournaments, but would not make the NCAA tournament if they don't win their conference tournament (their conference should only get one bid). Also, for all other conference tournaments, these seeds are assuming the favorites win upcoming conference tournaments/games:

 

1- Pittsburgh, Connecticut, North Carolina, Oklahoma

2 - Louisville, Memphis, Wake Forest, Michigan State

3 - Duke, Kansas, Xavier, Villanova

4 - Washington, Gonzaga, Missouri, Florida State

5 - UCLA, LSU, Marquette, Butler

6 - Purdue, Clemson, Illinois, Arizona State

7 - Syracuse, BYU, California, Tennessee

8 - Dayton, Utah, West Virginia, Texas A&M

9 - Utah State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Ohio State

10 - Arizona, Texas, Siena, Boston College

11 - Michigan, Florida, Creighton, South Carolina

12 - St. Mary's, Auburn, Penn State, Northern Iowa

13 - VCU, Western Kentucky, North Dakota State, Weber State

14 - E. Tennessee State, Cornell, American, Stephen F. Austin

15 - Binghamton, Charleston, Morgan State, Robert Morris

16 - Buffalo, Radford, Tennessee-Martin, Morehead State, Alabama State

Edited March 9, 2009 by Gopher

[Vinatieri Is God]

A lot could/will change with the majority of the conference tournaments still to be played, but here is my field of 65 as of Sunday evening:

 

ACC (6) - UNC, Wake, Duke, Florida St., Clemson, BC... NIT-bound: MD, Miami, VTech

America East (1) - Should be top-seed Binghamton, which faces 6-seed UMBC (15-16) in the final... NIT-bound: Vermont

Atlantic Sun (1) - Tournament winner East Tennessee State

Atlantic 10 (2) - Xavier, Dayton... NIT-bound: Rhode Island, Temple, Duquesne

Big East (7) - Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Nova, Marquette, Syracuse, WV... NIT-bound: Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Big Sky (1) - Conference winner only... Should be Weber State, which dominated conference play (15-1)... NIT-bound: Portland State

Big South (1) - Top seed Radford is in.

Big Ten (7) - Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State... NIT-bound: Minnesota

Big 12 (6) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas... NIT-bound: Kansas State, Nebraska

Big West (1) - Conference winner will get only bid.

Colonial (1) - Winner of VCU - George Mason championship game... NIT-bound: Loser of that game

Conference USA (1) - Memphis is in... Anyone else winning tourney would be a shock... NIT-bound: Tulsa, UAB

Horizon (1) - Like Memphis, Butler is in for sure... NIT-bound: Green Bay, Cleveland State

Ivy League (1) - Cornell is in (No conference tournament)

MAAC (1) - Top seed Siena will face winner of 2-seed Niagara and 3-seed Rider in the final... NIT-bound: Niagara

MAC (1) - Winner only

MEAC (1) - Winner only

Missouri Valley (2) - Northern Iowa wins conference tournament in OT, forcing Creighton to take at-large bid... NIT-bound: Illinois State

Mountain West (2) - BYU, Utah... NIT-bound: New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast (1) - Top seed Robert Morris faces #2 Mt. St. Mary's for the lone spot.

Ohio Valley (1) - Morehead State (19-15) won conference tournament.

Pac-10 (5) - Washington, UCLA, ASU, California, Arizona... NIT-bound: USC

Patriot (1) - Top seed American meets #2 Holy Cross for their only bid... American should go to NIT if they lose.

SEC (5) - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, Florida... NIT-bound - Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Southern (1) - Charleston faces Chattanooga for the final... NIT-bound: Davidson

Southland (1) - Conference winner only

Summit (1) - Conference winner only

Sun Belt (1) - Conference tournament still wide open... NIT-bound: W. Kentucky or Ark-Little Rock, whichever doesn't win tournament.

SWAC (1) - Conference winner only

WAC (1) - Utah State is in whether they win conference or not... NIT-bound: Nevada

West Coast (2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

 

I'll have 2 or 3 DVR's going non-stop all week... going to watch a lot of basketball in the next seven days. I'll try to update this daily, as things change. A couple of notes... Penn State was my final (65th) team in, which means I don't think they're actually going to make it unless they win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament. In other words, my gut feeling is that they get knocked out as soon as there is an upset in one of the mid-major tournaments, forcing another team to take that last at-large spot. Penn State lost a game yesterday, at Iowa, that they simply couldn't afford to lose.

 

I'm just doing this for kicks, to see how far off I am when everything is announced next Sunday... will update daily and try to add some "projected seeds" later as well. Feel free to comment if you like, although I would rather not have this thread turn into a "I can't believe you have x number of teams from -insert conference-... they suck" debate.

 

Awesome analysis. I don't really have any disagreements other than I like Miami over PSU because I am an ACC guy. Jack McClinton will be very fun to watch. I also think Davidson is in and St Mary's is out (unless they win their tourney tonight). The committee, although they aren't supposed to, will be swayed by last year's performance and the lure of seeing Stephon Curry. I've got Florida, Miami, Auburn, & Michigan as the first four to get bumped if Cleveland State beats Butler, St Mary's beats Gonzaga, anyone beats Memphis or anyone beats Utah State.

[detlef]

Fine analysis indeed, though it pains me to think that the Big 10 gets 7 in. Is there some secret rule somewhere that says the Big 10 must get the benefit of the doubt in the two major college sports?

 

That said, none of the 3 teams from the ACC you have as NIT bound deserve to dance and I just haven't watched enough hoops Nationally to make a case for any of the others you have on the outside looking in. With about a month to play, both Miami and V Tech had chances to prove they belonged and needed to only beat teams they should beat, but couldn't. Miami pooped the bed vs woeful Ga Tech and that said enough to me. It was one thing when Wake slept on them earlier. That stuff happens. But Miami knew that they absolutely needed to win to make a case and got beat from the tip.

 

Still, something stood out to me the other day. In the ACC, things get tougher once you get to conference play. Teams like Clemson enter conference play in the top 10 and end up maybe 20 or so. The exact opposite happened for MSU. They got completely out-classed by UNC, dropped out of the top 10, and then worked their way back up into it, seemingly because they had the luxury of beating a bunch of teams with names people knew but were simply not that good..

 

That last bit is more important than people think. Northern Iowa may be a better team than Iowa for all we know, but Iowa is in a major conference so beating them some how means more. Even if it really doesn't.

 

All in all, if it was up to me, the Big 10 wouldn't get as many as they do, but there would just be less damned teams in the field. Of course, I've felt for some time that the field is too big.

[Gopher]

Thanks for the comments, guys. Like I said, though, this is IF the selection were held today. I searched and searched, and couldn't really justify putting anyone else in instead of Penn State. Having at least a .500 record in conference is pretty much an absolute must for me, so a lot of teams played their way OUT, in my opinion, this week... Cincinnati, Maryland, Miami, etc. I looked at teams like Providence and Kansas State, but neither of them have a very strong "resume", if you look at who they beat (I like PSU's SLIGHTLY better). Don't worry, though... there WILL be at least one upset in this week's tournaments, which will most likely knock Penn State (or possibly Michigan) out of the dance. One of the scenarios that VIG mentioned is the mostly likely to take place, but there's also a good chance that a bubble team comes out of nowhere to win a major conference tournament... Kentucky in the SEC, Minnesota in the Big Ten, Providence/Notre Dame/Georgetown in the Big East (unlikely, but still possible), Miami/Maryland in the ACC, USC in the Pac 10, UNLV/SDSU in the Mountain West, anybody in the Atlantic 10, etc.

 

In other words, the chances of everything going as predicted, with no upsets, is nearly zero. If I remember correctly, it was just a few years ago that North Carolina State won the ACC tournament (or maybe they just got to the final ) when they were a bubble team, helping punch their ticket to the dance. It happens every year in one conference or another. I will be very surprised if Penn State actually makes the dance UNLESS they win another game or two in the Big Ten tournament... I think they played their way out, losing to Iowa on Saturday. I just have them in right now because none of the upsets we're talking about have happened yet (with the exception of Northern Iowa taking a tournament spot, which leaves one less for the big boys, because Creighton should get in regardless).

[detlef]

In other words, the chances of everything going as predicted, with no upsets, is nearly zero. If I remember correctly, it was just a few years ago that North Carolina State won the ACC tournament (or maybe they just got to the final ) when they were a bubble team, helping punch their ticket to the dance. It happens every year in one conference or another. I will be very surprised if Penn State actually makes the dance UNLESS they win another game or two in the Big Ten tournament... I think they played their way out, losing to Iowa on Saturday. I just have them in right now because none of the upsets we're talking about have happened yet (with the exception of Northern Iowa taking a tournament spot, which leaves one less for the big boys, because Creighton should get in regardless).

Wasn't N Iowa the #1 seed in that tourney? I've also heard as many say Creighton hasn't done enough to get in as the other way around. Their SOS is something like #119, isn't it?

[Gopher]

Fine analysis indeed, though it pains me to think that the Big 10 gets 7 in. Is there some secret rule somewhere that says the Big 10 must get the benefit of the doubt in the two major college sports?

 

That said, none of the 3 teams from the ACC you have as NIT bound deserve to dance and I just haven't watched enough hoops Nationally to make a case for any of the others you have on the outside looking in. With about a month to play, both Miami and V Tech had chances to prove they belonged and needed to only beat teams they should beat, but couldn't. Miami pooped the bed vs woeful Ga Tech and that said enough to me. It was one thing when Wake slept on them earlier. That stuff happens. But Miami knew that they absolutely needed to win to make a case and got beat from the tip.

 

Still, something stood out to me the other day. In the ACC, things get tougher once you get to conference play. Teams like Clemson enter conference play in the top 10 and end up maybe 20 or so. The exact opposite happened for MSU. They got completely out-classed by UNC, dropped out of the top 10, and then worked their way back up into it, seemingly because they had the luxury of beating a bunch of teams with names people knew but were simply not that good..

 

That last bit is more important than people think. Northern Iowa may be a better team than Iowa for all we know, but Iowa is in a major conference so beating them some how means more. Even if it really doesn't.

 

All in all, if it was up to me, the Big 10 wouldn't get as many as they do, but there would just be less damned teams in the field. Of course, I've felt for some time that the field is too big.

Look, I'm not going to sit here and say that the Big Ten is as good as the ACC or Big East this year... I don't think they are. But, you're comparing apples to oranges here... MSU is #1 in their conference, while Clemson is basically middle-of-the-pack in the ACC. If you're insinuating that MSU had an "easy" road to the Big 10 title this year, then you obviously haven't watched any Big 10 ball. I think a better comparison would be Purdue/Clemson or Illinois/Clemson... teams that were near the top early on, but dropped some once they lost a few games in conference. There is no doubt that North Carolina has a tougher conference schedule than Michigan State, in the sense that you've got to play top-10 teams at least four times (Duke and Wake). However, while the Big 10 might not have a trio of Final Four caliber teams this year, they do have a lot of depth overall... their 8th best team is as good as their 4th best team. Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern stand up to Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech, and in fact, I would say they that you could make the argument that they're better as a group.

 

I also think it's unfair to Michigan State to take a one-game snapshot, and measure them on their loss to North Carolina by itself. That was undoubtedly their worst game of the year. Other than that, they lost four games all year, one at Purdue and three others against basically bubble teams... Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland. But, I think their wins are just as impressive as their losses are detrimental to their resume... They beat the three teams that they also lost to in conference, as well as Wisconsin and Michigan (only played them both once). They swept everybody else in the conference... including Illinois, Ohio State, and Minnesota. Their non-conference wins are also impressive, although they're primarily against the Big 12... they dominated three of the top teams in the conference in Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas.

 

Michigan State is what it is... a 2-seed who could play their way down to a 3 if they slip up in the conference tournament. Purdue and Illinois are both 5-6 seed type of teams, who in my opinion, are the only other teams talented enough to win 2-3 games in the dance. Everybody else would be a significant surprise to make it past the second round. Like I said at the top, though, I really don't want this to turn into a conference vs. conference debate.

 

Oh, and by the way, Davidson is OUT. No chance they make it... sorry.

[Gopher]

Wasn't N Iowa the #1 seed in that tourney? I've also heard as many say Creighton hasn't done enough to get in as the other way around. Their SOS is something like #119, isn't it?

Yes, Northern Iowa was the #1 seed, technically. Both teams finished 14-4 in conference, and split 1-1 HTH, so the Panthers somehow got the tie-breaker. But, Creighton has the better overall record (26-7, while NIU was 23-10). Creighton is certainly not a lock, that's for sure... they've got some decent non-conference wins in New Mexico, St. Josephs, Dayton, etc. Not a particularly tough schedule (their SOS is fairly weak, like you mentioned), but their RIP is currently 42, and they've been a borderline top-25 team all year. The Missouri Valley conference is notoriously one of the better mid-major conferences, come tournament time. They've gotten as many as four (maybe even five?) bids in recent years, and have had some solid showings, with teams like Southern Illinois and Wichita State. Personally, I'd rather see a team that's won 25+ games make the dance, than a team who has a losing record in a major conference. Creighton is the type of team that could make a Sweet 16 run, and the only people who would be surprised are the ones who haven't seen them play.

[Gopher]

Eight games tonight, and an additional four teams will get their tickets to the dance punched. I don't really see any of them as bracket-buster type games... Gonzaga-St. Mary's should be an interesting game, but I think both teams should be in the dance, regardless of who wins. St. Mary's might be on the bubble, but I think the committee will recognize that their best player, Mills, was out for a significant portion of the season (he's back now).

 

Other than that, the only game that could stir things up slightly would be the MAAC championship game... If Niagara can knock off top-seeded Siena, there is a chance that Siena could still take an at-large bid, depending on how things shake out. They dominated conference play, their RPI is very strong (24), and their non-conference schedule might be as impressive as anybody's in the country, considering who they are and what conference they're in. Although they didn't beat any of them, they faced Kansas, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, and played them all tough. Not exactly buzzer-beaters, but I would call them "respectable" losses. They also beat St. Josephs from the Atlantic 10 conference, which was a decent non-conference win for them. I think Siena could be living proof that, if you can schedule some games with the big boys, and play them relatively tough, it will help your case in getting an at-large bid as a mid-major team.

[detlef]

However, while the Big 10 might not have a trio of Final Four caliber teams this year, they do have a lot of depth overall... their 8th best team is as good as their 4th best team. Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern stand up to Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech, and in fact, I would say they that you could make the argument that they're better as a group.

Here's the thing though, that's not depth, that's parity. If your argument is that 4-8 are a wash, that only matters if 4 is any good. I'm not resting my case on Miami, Maryland, and V Tech, however, I will say that they'd hold their own against 7-9 in any other conference (which is where they are in the ACC). That is, they're teams that can step up and play anyone on any given night but lack the intelligent play and discipline to prove it night in and night out. None the less, you do realize that you're basically arguing on behalf of the Big 10 by saying their 6th-8th best teams (which, according to you may as well be their 4th-8th) are as good or better than the ACC's 7-9th. Doesn't that seem a bit thin?

 

So, your conference schedule is "tough" only because nobody is good enough to make it look easy. If there was one truly elite team in that conference, the whole thing would be put into perspective.

 

Once again, if it was up to me, there'd be less teams overall because I agree with you that Miami, V Tech, and Maryland aren't good enough to have a say in who wins it all. However, if we're filling out 65, I can't see why a conference like the Big 10 should get more than someone like the ACC.

 

Also, Clemson and FSU are not going to be fun teams to draw in the big dance. At all.

Edited March 9, 2009 by detlef

[Gopher]

Here's the thing though, that's not depth, that's parity. If your argument is that 4-8 are a wash, that only matters if 4 is any good. I'm not resting my case on Miami, Maryland, and V Tech, however, I will say that they'd hold their own against 7-9 in any other conference (which is where they are in the ACC). That is, they're teams that can step up and play anyone on any given night but lack the intelligent play and discipline to prove it night in and night out. None the less, you do realize that you're basically arguing on behalf of the Big 10 by saying their 6th-8th best teams (which, according to you may as well be their 4th-8th) are as good or better than the ACC's 7-9th. Doesn't that seem a bit thin?

 

So, your conference schedule is "tough" only because nobody is good enough to make it look easy. If there was one truly elite team in that conference, the whole thing would be put into perspective.

 

Once again, if it was up to me, there'd be less teams overall because I agree with you that Miami, V Tech, and Maryland aren't good enough to have a say in who wins it all. However, if we're filling out 65, I can't see why a conference like the Big 10 should get more than someone like the ACC.

 

Also, Clemson and FSU are not going to be fun teams to draw in the big dance. At all.

I appreciate and respect your opinion, but to me, it's like the old glass half-full, glass half-empty thing... If you want to call it parity instead of depth, that's fine by me. Parity is not necessarily a bad thing... by definition, it basically means equality, from top to bottom. I don't think that's necessarily the case in the Big Ten or the ACC, but it's definitely true for the Big Ten, if you throw out the top 2-3 teams. PSU, Wisconsin, OSU, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern... they're all pretty even. If you happen to think that they all are weak teams, and that none of them deserve to go to the big show, you're certainly entitled to your opinion. The bottom line is that they held their own against the ACC (lost 5-4), and were a basket or two away from it being 5-4 in the other direction. So, it's not like the ACC dominated the Big 10 in HTH play, contrary to popular belief.

 

I'll say this one last time... I'm not here to debate the conference thing... It's really quite silly, and it doesn't matter a lick once the games start. The Big 10 has held their own over the years, and I'm pretty sure they will continue to do so. However, I don't think they have much of a shot at representing in the Final Four this year. I see 4-5 ACC teams who could make a solid run, while I really only see two in the Big 10 (I'm not really impressed by Illinois).

 

I'll agree with you on Clemson and FSU... I'm more impressed with FSU right at the moment. I think Wake made Clemson look fairly mediocre last night (yes, I watched the game), but that's Wake... They're Final Four quality, for sure. Clemson has been a little too inconsistent, while FSU has been lights out lately. Of course, a lot of times, that changes once the NCAA's start... the hot teams usually go out early, and the teams who struggled down the stretch suddenly make a resurgence. I definitely agree, though, both of those teams will be tough outs. I happen to think that Purdue will be as well.

[wildcat2334]

All right... here's my projected field of 65, with an "educated guess" as to where they'll be seeded. Teams in bold are officially in, while teams in italics are teams who are favorites to win their conference tournaments, but would not make the NCAA tournament if they don't win their conference tournament (their conference should only get one bid). Also, for all other conference tournaments, these seeds are assuming the favorites win upcoming conference tournaments/games:

 

1- Pittsburgh, Connecticut, North Carolina, Oklahoma

2 - Louisville, Memphis, Wake Forest, Michigan State

3 - Duke, Kansas, Xavier, Villanova

4 - Washington, Gonzaga, Missouri, Florida State

5 - UCLA, LSU, Marquette, Butler

6 - Purdue, Clemson, Illinois, Arizona State

7 - Syracuse, BYU, California, Tennessee

8 - Dayton, Utah, West Virginia, Texas A&M

9 - Utah State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Ohio State

10 - Arizona, Texas, Siena, Boston College

11 - Michigan, Florida, Creighton, South Carolina

12 - St. Mary's, Auburn, Penn State, Northern Iowa

13 - VCU, Western Kentucky, North Dakota State, Weber State

14 - E. Tennessee State, Cornell, American, Stephen F. Austin

15 - Binghamton, Charleston, Morgan State, Robert Morris

16 - Buffalo, Radford, Tennessee-Martin, Morehead State, Alabama State

 

 

Great work Gopher- I think you are on target for the most part

 

depending on how LOU and OKL do in their tourneys, I think LOU could take a #1 seed with OU sliding to a #2

 

The BE is potentially looking at 3 #1's which would be incredible

 

if UW wins the Pac 10 they are a #3 at worst, and possibly the last #2 and UCLA will be a 3,4 if they end up taking it

 

still alot to be decided in these wide-open tournaments.........

[billay]

Great work Gopher- I think you are on target for the most part

 

depending on how LOU and OKL do in their tourneys, I think LOU could take a #1 seed with OU sliding to a #2

 

The BE is potentially looking at 3 #1's which would be incredible

 

if UW wins the Pac 10 they are a #3 at worst, and possibly the last #2 and UCLA will be a 3,4 if they end up taking it

 

still alot to be decided in these wide-open tournaments.........

It's interesting looking at these middle tier ACC/Big 10 Teams. Suprisiningly, Maryland may be the most deserving ACC team outside the top 6. With a win tonight and a win in the tourney, Maryland could play their way in. They have wins over two conference champions: UNC and Michigan State. Penn St. has 1 quality win (Mich. St.) Wisconsin's best win is who? Michigan? Minnesota has 1 legit win over Louisville, but Miami has a win over Wake Forest. (as does VT)

[Gopher]

Penn State also swept Illinois, and beat Purdue (which the "experts" would consider to all be quality wins). You could make the argument that they didn't play anybody outside of the conference, which is true, but within the BT, they beat the best teams possible.

 

Michigan beat Duke, UCLA, and played UConn tough (which will count for something, whether people like it or not).

 

Wisconsin played a tough non-conference schedule, they just didn't win any of the tough games (UConn, Marquette, Texas).

 

You might have noticed that I didn't have Minnesota in my field... I don't think they deserve it, compared to the other Big Ten teams on the bubble. One quality win on the road (actually a neutral site) doesn't cut it.

 

Remember, I posted this field based on my predictions of who's going to make it... I will change it daily as I see things change. This is not necessarily who I think the best 65 teams in the country are. Over the years, the committee has shown certain tendencies.... right or wrong, they don't typically give bids to teams that have losing records in conference. They also tend to reward teams who have played decent competition outside of their conference, sometimes regardless of whether said team actually won those games. Do I think that a team like Penn State is really any better than Maryland or Miami? No. More disciplined, maybe, but I don't think they're better. In fact, I would venture to say that MD and Miami are probably more talented than Penn State. I do think that, if the selection process took place today, Penn State would get in before either of those two teams, in part (right or wrong) because of the conference records.

 

Wisconsin is another example... I think they get a seeding boost on an annual basis, based on name recognition alone... Their resume this year is not that impressive... Minnesota even swept them. If I had picked who I thought SHOULD get in, Wisconsin would not be where they were. In fact, they might not even be in the field at all. But, once again, if the selection took place today, I think the would be in the 8-9 range. Right or wrong, they tend to get favoritism based on the name, as well as the fact that they've done fairly well in the tournament, often out-performing their rank/seed.

 

One other note... I spent a LOT more time picking seeds 1-10 than I did 11-16... so, as I get more time to do so, I'll probably adjust some of my picks in the 10-16 range. I didn't have time last night to debate which teams deserve 15-seeds versus 13-seeds, so some of the later seeds might be a rough "estimate."

[Gopher]

What I think it really SHOULD boil down to, besides the obvious things (like strength of schedule), is how many home games did you lose, and how many road games did you win. If you lost more home games than you won on the road, you don't deserve to be there. Who wants to watch teams that play great at home, but can't beat anybody on the road? That's why I left Minnesota off my list... They can compete with anyone at home, but they couldn't get it done on the road. Road/neutral wins are huge, in my mind, while home losses should be viewed as even more critical than they already are. Teams that can win anywhere make dangerous tournament teams. Teams that can only win at home make for early exits in the tournament.

[godtomsatan]

Great analysis Gopher, but I have some disagreements as to where things may stand as of now.

 

I'm not sure these teams are in that you have listed: Boston College, Arizona, South Carolina, Auburn. Despite a few key wins, and despite the conference records, the RPI's are not particularly strong for any of these.

 

Also I'm not sure that these teams you have listed as out are that far out of the picture: Temple, Minnesota, George Mason, Illinois State, San Diego St.. Especially the latter three being the second teams from some mid-majors, who are clearly (as a whole) not having the kind of season they have had in the recent past.

[wildcat2334]

well we learned 1 thing tonight,

 

I don't care if Paddy Mills is back - St. Mary's DOES NOT belong in the tournament, not impressed at all.

 

The WCC is terrible, and their best wins are Utah St and San Diego St?

 

big negative, more deserving teams out there IMO

[Gopher]

Great analysis Gopher, but I have some disagreements as to where things may stand as of now.

 

I'm not sure these teams are in that you have listed: Boston College, Arizona, South Carolina, Auburn. Despite a few key wins, and despite the conference records, the RPI's are not particularly strong for any of these.

 

Also I'm not sure that these teams you have listed as out are that far out of the picture: Temple, Minnesota, George Mason, Illinois State, San Diego St.. Especially the latter three being the second teams from some mid-majors, who are clearly (as a whole) not having the kind of season they have had in the recent past.

I'm definitely not disagreeing with you... All of the teams you listed (both in and out) are on the bubble, for sure. I would not be surprised to see any of the ones I listed as out, and the ones you listed as in... too close to call.

 

I think Arizona's schedule will help them, which is why I put them in as of right now... That said, if they don't win a game in the P-10 tourney, they may be in trouble.

 

I think BC is in, simply because they were above .500 in arguably the best conference in the country, top to bottom.

 

The other two (SC and Auburn), I find very interesting. What will the committee do? They have never left a 10-6 team from a major conference out of the tournament, but neither of these teams has a very impressive resume. I personally have somewhat mixed feelings about both of them. They didn't exactly get a lot of big wins... in fact, both teams lost the games against solid non-conference competition that they did have. On the other hand, I think the whole conference being "down" thing gets blown a bit out of proportion. The SEC might not be as good as they were last year, for example, but they're still a solid conference that could do well in the post-season. My gut says at least one of these teams makes it, maybe both, mainly because I think this year's field as a whole is not as deep as years past. Not as many bubble teams with solid resumes, so it's almost like we're left picking the "best of the worst" to fill those last half-dozen spots.

 

As far as the other list, I think I'm hardest on my own team, for two reasons... One, I don't want to assume they are in, then be disappointed when they don't make it. I also don't want to be accused of being biased. Even if I throw both of those things out the window, though, I don't think the Gophers got enough quality wins to justify a spot. I can really only count three games (Louisville, at Wisconsin, and blowing out Illinois at home) as games where they played above their potential. On the other hand, they don't really have any bad losses, either. They were swept by MSU and Michigan, lost to Purdue at home, and lost to Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, and Ohio State on the road. The one game that I think they really needed to win, and should have won, was their last game against Michigan. Up by 12 in the second half at home, they went on to blow that lead and lose... Inexcusable. That could be the loss that costs them in the end. The tough part for Minnesota is that they now play Northwestern (who they're expected to beat, so it's not really accomplishing anything if they do), then would face Michigan State in the second round. In other words, beating Northwestern is probably all they have left to "bolster" their resume.

 

As far as the rest of the teams, I would LOVE to see more teams like George Mason, SDSU, and Illinois State make it as at-large bids. Personally, I would rather see some of the mid-major teams who won 25 games make it, over a middle-of-the-pack major conference team who went 20-10 or 18-12. Even though the mid-major conferences aren't as strong, there is something to be said about a team who knows how to win games... A lot of times, they don't know any better than to compete and put themselves in a position to be competitive, no matter who they're playing. The George Mason's, Davidson's, Siena's, and Southern Illinois's of the past have proven that these types of teams can cause fits to the rest of the tournament field.

[Gopher]

Updated after Monday's games:

 

ACC (6) - UNC, Wake, Duke, Florida St., Clemson, BC... NIT-bound: MD, Miami, VTech

America East (1) - Should be top-seed Binghamton, which faces 6-seed UMBC (15-16) in the final... NIT-bound: Vermont

Atlantic Sun (1) - Tournament winner East Tennessee State

Atlantic 10 (2) - Xavier, Dayton... NIT-bound: Rhode Island, Temple, Duquesne

Big East (7) - Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Nova, Marquette, Syracuse, WV... NIT-bound: Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Big Sky (1) - Conference winner only... Should be Weber State, which dominated conference play (15-1)... NIT-bound: Portland State

Big South (1) - Top seed Radford is in.

Big Ten (7) - Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State... NIT-bound: Minnesota

Big 12 (6) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas... NIT-bound: Kansas State, Nebraska

Big West (1) - Conference winner will get only bid.

Colonial (1) - VCU takes the title... NIT-bound: George Mason

Conference USA (1) - Memphis is in... Anyone else winning tourney would be a shock... NIT-bound: Tulsa, UAB

Horizon (1) - Like Memphis, Butler is in for sure... NIT-bound: Green Bay, Cleveland State

Ivy League (1) - Cornell is in (No conference tournament)

MAAC (1) - Siena takes the title as expected... NIT-bound: Niagara

MAC (1) - Winner only

MEAC (1) - Winner only

Missouri Valley (2) - Northern Iowa wins conference tournament in OT, forcing Creighton to take at-large bid... NIT-bound: Illinois State

Mountain West (2) - BYU, Utah... NIT-bound: New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast (1) - Top seed Robert Morris faces #2 Mt. St. Mary's for the lone spot.

Ohio Valley (1) - Morehead State (19-15) won conference tournament.

Pac-10 (5) - Washington, UCLA, ASU, California, Arizona... NIT-bound: USC

Patriot (1) - Top seed American meets #2 Holy Cross for their only bid... American should go to NIT if they lose.

SEC (5) - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, Florida... NIT-bound - Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Southern (1) - Chattanooga gets the upset, and the bid... NIT-bound: Davidson

Southland (1) - Conference winner only

Summit (1) - Conference winner only... Winner of NDSU and Oakland on Tuesday.

Sun Belt (1) - Top seed W. Kentucky against #6 S. Alabama... NIT-bound: Ark-Little Rock

SWAC (1) - Conference winner only

WAC (1) - Utah State is in whether they win conference or not... NIT-bound: Nevada

West Coast (2) - Gonzaga is in for sure... St. Mary's on the bubble.

[Gopher]

Updated projected seeds (3/9):

 

1- Pittsburgh, Connecticut, North Carolina, Oklahoma

2 - Louisville, Memphis, Wake Forest, Michigan State

3 - Duke, Kansas, Xavier, Villanova

4 - Washington, Gonzaga, Missouri, Florida State

5 - UCLA, LSU, Marquette, Butler

6 - Purdue, Clemson, Illinois, Arizona State

7 - Syracuse, BYU, California, Tennessee

8 - Dayton, Utah, West Virginia, Texas A&M

9 - Utah State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Ohio State

10 - Arizona, Wisconsin, Siena, Boston College

11 - Michigan, Florida, Creighton, South Carolina

12 - St. Mary's, Auburn, Penn State, Northern Iowa

13 - VCU, Western Kentucky, North Dakota State, Weber State

14 - E. Tennessee State, Cornell, American, Stephen F. Austin

15 - Binghamton, Chattanooga, Morgan State, Robert Morris

16 - Buffalo, Radford, Tennessee-Martin, Morehead State, Alabama State

 

Changes: VCU, Gonzaga, Siena, and Chattanooga (replacing Charleston) all clinch. Swapped Texas (10 to 9) and Wisconsin (9 to 10).

Edited March 10, 2009 by Gopher

[Gopher]

NIT seeds as of 3/9:

 

1 - Maryland, Minnesota, Providence, Rhode Island

2 - Miami, Kentucky, USC, New Mexico

3 - UNLV, Temple, Notre Dame, Davidson

4 - SDSU, Virginia Tech, Tulsa, Kansas State

5 - Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, George Mason, Illinois State

6 - Georgetown, Mississippi State, Green Bay, Nevada

7 - Arkansas-Little Rock, Cleveland State, UAB, Nebraska

8 - Vermont, Duquesne, Portland State, Niagara

[Gopher]

well we learned 1 thing tonight,

 

I don't care if Paddy Mills is back - St. Mary's DOES NOT belong in the tournament, not impressed at all.

 

The WCC is terrible, and their best wins are Utah St and San Diego St?

 

big negative, more deserving teams out there IMO

I think you very well might be right. However, I'm leaving them in my projections until I see another day or two of games. They've definitely done their part to put themselves back on the bubble. Now, the question becomes, will one of the others do something to justify passing them by... I think Providence, Minnesota, or one of the others needs to at least win something to take their spot.

[Vinatieri Is God]

I think BC is in, simply because they were above .500 in arguably the best conference in the country, top to bottom.

 

And they beat Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State (UNC on the road)

[Gopher]

Three more championship games on tonight... NDSU and Western Kentucky are both heavy favorites, and could be legitimate upset teams in the NCAA tournament (especially WKU, who made some noise last year).

 

The game of the night to watch, though is in the Horizon League... If Cleveland State somehow manages to knock off Butler for the title, it would force the Bulldogs into an at-large position, essentially eliminating another bubble team from the Big 10, Mountain West, or SEC.

 

Also, in the Big East, Cincinatti has officially eliminated themselves from the bubble conversation. Not that they were likely to get in, anyway (they probably needed to win at least three games in their tournament), but losing to DePaul (who was on an 18-game losing streak) definitely sealed their fate. In fact, they may have put themselves on the NIT bubble, with such a bad loss.

Edited March 10, 2009 by Gopher

[godtomsatan]

And they beat Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State (UNC on the road)

 

And lost to St. Louis, Harvard, and NC St.. I kind of don't understand how their RPI is in the 50s playing in the ACC with a winning record, but it is. Pomeroy isn't much nicer to them having them ranked somewhere in the 60s.