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My field of 65...


Gopher
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Syracuse goes 5 OT sessions without having a single lead, and ends up winning by 10 in the 6th OT!! :wacko: A few numbers in this game:

 

They scored 71 points in regulation, and another 56 in the extra sessions.

 

UConn committed almost twice as many TO's as the Orangemen (28-15).

 

Syracuse out-shot the Huskies significantly from the FT line... 41/52 (79%) vs. 24/42 (57%).

 

They also had an advantage from behind the arc... 9/23 (39%) vs. 7/36 (19%).

 

The one area where UConn dominated was the boards... They out-rebounded Syracuse 71-53, and had four players finish in double-figures in rebounds.

 

Both teams had four players foul out... UConn finished the game with three other players with four fouls, while 'Cuse had two players with four.

 

There were so many impressive performances in this game, I couldn't even try to list them all, but here's a few:

 

Syracuse guards Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins combined to hit nine three-pointers and score 22 and 20 points, respectively. Devendorf, who later fouled out, hit an apparent game-winning three at the end of regulation... After about three minutes of officials' review, it was waved off. The shot actually left his hand one-tenth of a second after time had expired.

 

UConn was led by A.J. Price (33 pts, 10 asts), Hasheem Thabeet (19 pts, 16 rebs), and Stanley Robinson (28 pts, 14 rebs)... All three players fouled out.

 

Syracuse was led by forward Paul Harris and point guard Jonny Flynn. Harris scored 29 points and brought in 22 rebounds (11 offensive), and went 13/14 from the line. Flynn was the player of the game, however... 34 points, 11 assists, 5 steals, and a perfect 16/16 from the line. What was even more impressive, though, was that he played 67 minutes (out of 70) and only picked up two fouls the entire game. That's a combined 29/30 free throws between the two, which pretty much kept them in the game.

 

This game goes down as an instant classic. :D

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Through Thursday:

 

ACC (6) - UNC, Wake, Duke, Florida St., Clemson, BC... NIT-bound: MD, Miami, VTech

America East (1) - Should be top-seed Binghamton, which faces 6-seed UMBC (15-16) in the final... NIT-bound: Vermont

Atlantic Sun (1) - Tournament winner East Tennessee State

Atlantic 10 (2) - Xavier, Dayton... NIT-bound: Rhode Island, Temple, Duquesne

Big East (7) - Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Nova, Marquette, Syracuse, WV... NIT-bound: Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Big Sky (1) - Conference winner Portland State... NIT-bound: Weber State

Big South (1) - Top seed Radford is in.

Big Ten (6) - Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan... NIT-bound: Penn State, Minnesota

Big 12 (6) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas... NIT-bound: Kansas State, Nebraska

Big West (1) - Conference winner will get only bid.

Colonial (1) - VCU takes the title... NIT-bound: George Mason

Conference USA (1) - Memphis is in... Anyone else winning tourney would be a shock... NIT-bound: Tulsa, UAB

Horizon (2) - Cleveland State, Butler... NIT-bound: Green Bay

Ivy League (1) - Cornell is in (No conference tournament)

MAAC (1) - Siena takes the title as expected... NIT-bound: Niagara

MAC (1) - Winner only

MEAC (1) - Winner only

Missouri Valley (2) - Northern Iowa wins conference tournament in OT, forcing Creighton to take at-large bid... NIT-bound: Illinois State

Mountain West (3) - BYU, Utah, San Diego State... NIT-bound: New Mexico, UNLV

Northeast (1) - Robert Morris wins title.

Ohio Valley (1) - Morehead State (19-15) won conference tournament.

Pac-10 (5) - Washington, UCLA, ASU, California, Arizona... NIT-bound: USC

Patriot (1) - Top seed American meets #2 Holy Cross for their only bid... American should go to NIT if they lose.

SEC (5) - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, Florida... NIT-bound - Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Southern (1) - Chattanooga gets the upset, and the bid... NIT-bound: Davidson

Southland (1) - Conference winner only

Summit (1) - NDSU wins the conference.

Sun Belt (1) - Western Kentucky... NIT-bound: Ark-Little Rock

SWAC (1) - Conference winner only

WAC (1) - Utah State is in whether they win conference or not... NIT-bound: Nevada

West Coast (1) - Gonzaga is in for sure... NIT-bound: St. Mary's

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Updated after Thursday's games... 14 teams have now officially punched their tickets to the dance:

 

1- North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut

2 - Memphis, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Michigan State

3 - Duke, Xavier, Villanova, Washington

4 - Kansas, Gonzaga, Missouri, Florida State

5 - UCLA, LSU, Marquette, Butler

6 - Purdue, Illinois, Arizona State, Syracuse

7 - Clemson, BYU, West Virginia, Tennessee

8 - California, Utah, Oklahoma State, Texas

9 - Utah State, Texas A&M, Boston College, Ohio State

10 - Dayton, Wisconsin, Siena, Michigan

11 - Arizona, Florida, San Diego State, South Carolina

12 - Creighton, Auburn, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa

13 - VCU, Cleveland State, North Dakota State, Portland State

14 - E. Tennessee State, Cornell, American, Stephen F. Austin

15 - Binghamton, Chattanooga, Morgan State, Robert Morris

16 - Buffalo, Radford, CSU-Northridge, Morehead State, Alabama State

 

NIT seeds as of 3/12:

 

1 - Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, USC

2 - Temple, Kentucky, Providence, Rhode Island

3 - UNLV, St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech

4 - Miami, Tulsa, Davidson, Kansas State

5 - New Mexico, Vanderbilt, George Mason, Illinois State

6 - Georgetown, Mississippi State, Green Bay, Nevada

7 - Niagara, Cincinnati, UAB, Duquesne

8 - Vermont, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Arkansas-Little Rock

 

NIT bubble: Weber State, Wyoming, Baylor

 

I don't believe in rewarding teams for winning games they SHOULD win, or punishing teams for losing games that in which they are underdogs. For that reason only, I'm not sold on the idea that Arizona played their way out today, while Minnesota and Penn State are in. I still think Arizona is a better team than either one of them, to be honest. I did shuffle a few teams around, depending on how they fared today. Still a lot of games left, though, in the next three days. Nothing is a guarantee, other than the 14 teams in bold getting bids somewhere in the bracket.

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FSU swept Clemson this year...

Listen, I didn't even say it was my pick, just saying that's what was being bandied about on the radio. Also, both FSU/Clemson games were close and Clemson is ranked ahead of FSU, so, no it is not a stretch. Mostly, however, I was simply guessing why the heads were saying so...

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Listen, I didn't even say it was my pick, just saying that's what was being bandied about on the radio. Also, both FSU/Clemson games were close and Clemson is ranked ahead of FSU, so, no it is not a stretch. Mostly, however, I was simply guessing why the heads were saying so...

I'm just yanking your chain. :wacko:

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Cuse beats UCONN in SIX overtimes! Wow. Second longest division 1 game ever. 102 points scored after regulation, 244 total. The game took 3 hours and 46 minutes. Eight players fouled out.

 

Amazing.

 

Too bad somebody had to lose that game.

 

Check out the minutes played.

Those poor bastards for 'Cuse have to playa gain today...

Edited by billay
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I don't believe both Pitt and UConn are #1's. Not if you are throwing Louisville in there too.

 

 

Ya, no way does the big east get 3 #1's

You both may be right, but as of right this moment, who else has played their way into the top four in the country? It's kind of a pointless argument to get into because the season doesn't end today, but if it did, I think it could very easily be argued that three of the top four teams in the country are in the Big East. Like I said, there's no way to "prove" it, but let's look at the other options, in order of how I like their chances:

 

Memphis needs to win their conference tournament, period, before anybody can justify them being a #1. If they do so, which is very likely, I think they're a one-seed. Until then, though, I'm not annointing them as anything higher than a 2.

 

Wake probably needs to win the conference tourney as well. If they make it to the ACC final and lose, they would need Memphis and Louisville to slip up to have a shot.

 

Duke has six losses (two more than either Pitt or UConn, and one more than the Big East conference winner Louisville) and will need to win the ACC to get a #1 seed... Even then, it's not a sure thing for them... they also would need Memphis, Louisville, and maybe even MSU to lose.

 

Michigan State... Needs all hell to break loose, in my opinion... Memphis loses, Louisville loses, and someone other than Wake/Duke wins ACC.

 

Oklahoma has certainly "played their way out" of a one-seed, much moreso than Pitt or UConn, losing four of their last six games overall.

 

Nobody else in the country has a shot, in my opinion. The bottom line is that we're still talking about two teams with four losses each. Neither of them has a particularly "bad" loss, certainly no worse than the losses the other teams in the conversation have suffered. I could see the argument that Louisville isn't there yet (they need to finish the deal as well... In fact, maybe even moreso now that the other two big guns have been eliminated). But, I don't think anyone can say that any of the teams I mentioned above are more deserving than Pitt or UConn UNLESS those teams win their league's tournaments.

 

If I had to guess, I would say that Memphis will run the table, Wake will probably win the ACC (but who knows, anybody left could win it), and I've taped the Michigan State-Minnesota game (will watch it tonight), so I can't comment on them at the moment... Obviously, I'm hoping for an upset there(please... no spoilers), but I know the chances are slim. Either way, I think the highest MSU goes is a 2-seed, unless all of the other pieces fall into place. So... If i were to bet on who the #1 seeds will be when it's all said and done, I would go with NC as the top team overall, followed by Memphis (assuming they win out), Pitt (HTH advantage over UConn), and Louisville (assuming they take the Big East). If Louisville or Memphis slips up, I would slide Wake into a #1, but once again, that's if they win the ACC. Duke and MSU are longshots at this point.

 

Like I mentioned earlier, I'm not really impressed with teams beating other teams that are less talented, or equally as talented, as they are, at this point in the season. If you're on the outside of the bubble (looking in), I think you have to do something impressive to warrant moving up... win your conference, win an upset, even a bubble team playing a top-five team close means something. I'll continue to update my projections tonight, as well as tomorrow night... I think you'll start to see some of the changes we're talking about once the Memphis/Wake/Duke/MSU's of the world show us if they're going to seal the deal or not.

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Lots of stuff...

Hard to argue with any of it. The logic follows the same lines of previous debates about the merits of the 7th best team in the Big 10 vs the 7th best team in the ACC. What the hell? You can't go wrong or right regardless of who you take because they're all pimply as all hell.

 

At this point, the only team that has punched their ticket as a #1 is UNC. Win or lose, it's a done deal, especially, and I know this is a bit lame, because Lawson is being held out due to injury (assuming that's the case tomorrow and it would be stupid for them to play him unless he's 100%).

 

Everyone else? Like Gopher, I can't fathom MSU as a #1 unless there's simply no other options at all and have a really, really, really hard time seeing Duke or Wake deserving either. Wake looked amazing... like a month ago when they were running past UNC and Duke. Much less so before they somewhat righted the ship of late. None the less, I'd think Wake (or I suppose Duke) would not only have to win the ACC, but do so in impressive fashion and without a lucky draw (ie: beat the other of the two and then UNC in the finals). Honestly, I just don't see how else.

 

So, now that OU pooped the bed, that pretty much leaves Memphis (and I agree that they absolutely have to run the table considering their lame conference) and the big 3 from the Big East. There's just nobody left.

 

I'll add one wrinkle and that's the fact that I think there's likely a built in aversion to handing one conference 3 #1s. Fair or not, I think the committee will be looking for a reason not to and, now that neither Pitt or UConn won once in their tourney, they'll find a way to avoid it provided there's any reasonably suitable candidate among the rest of the teams mentioned.

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You both may be right, but as of right this moment, who else has played their way into the top four in the country? It's kind of a pointless argument to get into because the season doesn't end today, but if it did, I think it could very easily be argued that three of the top four teams in the country are in the Big East. Like I said, there's no way to "prove" it, but let's look at the other options, in order of how I like their chances:

 

I was going to give off a list of teams besides Pitt and UConn to put at #1, but the reality is that it's tough to make an argument. I also realize Lunardi has all 3 as #1s, but he's got Kansas as a #2, and Oklahoma as a #3, and I just don't buy either one of those either. I think Memphis probably deserves a crack at one, maybe Duke if they win the ACC tourney, maybe even Michigan St..

 

The top 4 daily RPI's have Pitt, Duke, UNC, and Michigan St. as the top 4, followed by Oklahoma, UConn, Memphis, and Louisville. There are only going to be 4 conference title winners out of that group: Duke/UNC, Michigan St., Memphis, and Louisville. Make the rest #2 seeds.

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I was going to give off a list of teams besides Pitt and UConn to put at #1, but the reality is that it's tough to make an argument. I also realize Lunardi has all 3 as #1s, but he's got Kansas as a #2, and Oklahoma as a #3, and I just don't buy either one of those either. I think Memphis probably deserves a crack at one, maybe Duke if they win the ACC tourney, maybe even Michigan St..

 

The top 4 daily RPI's have Pitt, Duke, UNC, and Michigan St. as the top 4, followed by Oklahoma, UConn, Memphis, and Louisville. There are only going to be 4 conference title winners out of that group: Duke/UNC, Michigan St., Memphis, and Louisville. Make the rest #2 seeds.

Sounds good to me... After the first round, it doesn't really matter if you're a 1, 2, or 3 anyway... Anybody can beat anybody, which is what I love about the tournament.

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Sounds good to me... After the first round, it doesn't really matter if you're a 1, 2, or 3 anyway... Anybody can beat anybody, which is what I love about the tournament.

Except for the fact that there can be a much bigger drop at the #4 seed and that's who the 1s get at the round of 16. I think that can tend to be a significantly easier match-up than what the 2s end up with.

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I'll add one wrinkle and that's the fact that I think there's likely a built in aversion to handing one conference 3 #1s. Fair or not, I think the committee will be looking for a reason not to and, now that neither Pitt or UConn won once in their tourney, they'll find a way to avoid it provided there's any reasonably suitable candidate among the rest of the teams mentioned.

Agreed... there seems to be a few "unwritten" rules that the committee tends to follow:

 

- Teams with losing conference records rarely make it.

 

- On the contrary,whether right or wrong, teams with winning conference records in the big six usually do.

 

- Teams with a 10-6 or better conference record in the big six conferences always make it (we'll see if they stray from that this year with Auburn and SC).

 

- The committee tends to really like the 20-win thing, if you're in a major conference, no matter who you played out of conference to get those 20.

 

- The 12-seed tends to be about as low as they go in seeding at-large teams. Ironically, the 12-seed happens to be the most frequent underdog to win over the past 10 years, if you throw out the 8/9 games, which are basically toss-up games.

 

- Whether they admit it or not, they definitely do take certain things into consideration when seeding teams, such as injured star players who are returning, injured players who are not returning, how certain schools have done in past years, etc.

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- Whether they admit it or not, they definitely do take certain things into consideration when seeding teams, such as injured star players who are returning, injured players who are not returning, how certain schools have done in past years, etc.

I actually don't have a ton of issue with this part, especially the part I bolded. I recall when Cal had an amazing player, Gray?, who got injured right before the tourney. I understand that Cal had put together a fine resume for the season but it was hard to think that they'd be the same team with a guy like that out.

 

Hell, look at UNC. If Lawson is truly hurt and we've got to go into this thing with Fraisor and Drew II running the point? We'll be lucky to get to the regional final and I wouldn't be surprised if we'd get bounced by the 8/9.

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I actually don't have a ton of issue with this part, especially the part I bolded. I recall when Cal had an amazing player, Gray?, who got injured right before the tourney. I understand that Cal had put together a fine resume for the season but it was hard to think that they'd be the same team with a guy like that out.

 

Hell, look at UNC. If Lawson is truly hurt and we've got to go into this thing with Fraisor and Drew II running the point? We'll be lucky to get to the regional final and I wouldn't be surprised if we'd get bounced by the 8/9.

I don't really have issues with it either... I'm just saying that there are some written rules (teams from the same conference must be split up into different regions as much as possible, etc.), and then there are some unwritten rules that seem to be followed. The other part, I have more of an issue with... why is Wisconsin not a bubble team this year? Who have they beaten that was an impressive win? Nobody. But, they've had more strong past tournament showings than weak ones, so they seem to get a pass.

 

Maryland now with wins over UNC, Wake and Michigan St. How much more do they have to do?

After today, I really like their chances, especially if South Carolina AND Auburn lose.

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Ironically, the 12-seed happens to be the most frequent underdog to win over the past 10 years, if you throw out the 8/9 games, which are basically toss-up games.

 

Even though it seems that way, that isn't actually true. I forget where I read it but someone broke down the percenatges and 5's were maybe 70%, 6's were about 65% and 7's were maybe 60% (all guesses, don't quote me on the exact numbers). What was true is that the 9's won more than the 8's (maybe 55/45)

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Even though it seems that way, that isn't actually true. I forget where I read it but someone broke down the percenatges and 5's were maybe 70%, 6's were about 65% and 7's were maybe 60% (all guesses, don't quote me on the exact numbers). What was true is that the 9's won more than the 8's (maybe 55/45)

Here's a breakdown of the percentages by seed, since 1985:

 

No #16 seed has ever defeated a #1 seed since the field was expanded to 64 teams, though some have come close. Eleven #16 seeds have come within 10 points of a #1 seed, with five of them coming within 5 points. Two have come within one point. Only one #16/#1 game has gone into overtime (Murray State vs. Michigan State in 1990). The five #16 seeds that have come within 5 points of a #1 seed are:

 

* Fairleigh Dickinson lost to Michigan in 1985 (4 points, 59-55)

* Princeton lost to Georgetown in 1989 (1 point, 50-49)

* East Tennessee State lost to Oklahoma in 1989 (1 point, 72-71)

* Murray State lost to Michigan State in 1990 (4 points, 75-71 in OT)

* Western Carolina lost to Purdue in 1996 (2 points, 73-71)

 

Only four #15 seeds have ever defeated #2 seeds:

 

* Richmond over Syracuse 73-69 in 1991

* Santa Clara over Arizona 64-61 in 1993

* Coppin State over South Carolina 78-65 in 1997

* Hampton over Iowa State 58-57 in 2001

 

Since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed-pairing has played a total of 96 first-round games.

 

1. The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 96 times (100%).

2. The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 92 times (96%).

3. The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 81 times (84%).

4. The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 79 times (82%).

5. The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 65 times (67%).

6. The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 66 times (69%).

7. The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 60 times (62%).

8. The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 44 times (46%).

 

 

So, as you can see, the 5-seeds have actually been SLIGHTLY less successful than the 6-seeds... Everything else falls pretty much in line, with each seed being more successful than the one below it. Here are a couple more links:

 

Overall winning percentage by seed

 

No. 1 Seeds- Of course no No. 1 seed has ever lost in the first round but even better the overall record for this seed is an amazing (376-104) 78 percent win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.

 

No. 2 Seeds- Only four No. 2 seeds have lost in first round and none since 2001. Overall record (267-114) 70 percent win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.

 

No. 3 Seeds- First round upsets have occured 15 times since 1985. Overall Record (199-116) 63 percent win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.

 

No. 4 Seeds- Upsets for first round have happened 21 times in the last 24 years. Overall NCAA tournament record (161-118) 57 percent win percentage.

 

No. 5 Seeds- Everybody knows that this No. 12 seeds always seem to upset No. 5 seeds. In fact 31 times since 1985 they have upset the favorite in the first round. Overall NCAA tournament record (141-121) 53 percent win percentage overall.

 

No. 6 Seeds- Only 30 out of 96 times have the No. 6 been upset since 1985! Overall record (154-118) 56 percent win perecentage overall!

 

No. 7 Seeds- Not a big upset when they lose the first round surpsingly they have a good win perecentage in the first round since 1985 going 60-36. Overall record (105-120) 46 percent win percentage overall.

 

No. 8 Seeds- Many don't consider this first round loss an upset because these teams are always so similar. Since 1985 overall record 44-52. Overall record is (88-119) 42 percent win percentage overall.

 

Other interesting trends: Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney. No. 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only five times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis to win the title.

 

Note that two No. 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two No. 1 seeds in the title game is uncommon, the feat has been achieved in three of the last four years.

 

Since 1985 No. 1 seeds have won 14 championships, No. 2 seeds have won four, No. 3 seeds have won three, and No. 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.

 

From these trends Craig's advice is as follows. When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all No.1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since three and four seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it's a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well.

 

Chances are you'll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone. Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round.

 

Article on conferences

 

Another article on overall win %

 

Article on 5-seeds

 

Upset article

 

—No. 1 seeds are a perfect 96-0 against No. 16 seeds in the first round.

 

—No. 2 seeds are 92-4 over No. 15 seeds in the first round.

 

—No. 3 seeds have gone 81-15 versus No. 14 seeds in the first round.

 

—No. 4 seeds are 79-17 against No. 13 seeds in the first round.

 

—No. 5 seeds are just 65-31 against No. 12 seeds in the first round, making them most susceptible to a first round upset.

 

—No. 6 seeds have fared better against No. 11 seeds than No. 5s vs. No. 12s, with a 66-30 record in the first round.

 

—No. 7 seeds are 60-36 against No. 10 seeds.

 

—No. 8 seeds have lost more than they’ve won against No. 9 seeds with a 44-52 record in the first round.

 

So, after all of that, I guess what we've learned is that the 5-seeds are one game worse than the 6-seeds overall. Given that they all SHOULD fall in line with statistical probability, the 12-seeds have defied mathematical logic over time, it seems, even it it's been ever-so-slightly.

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