Gopher Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Through Saturday morning: ACC (7) - UNC, Wake, Duke, Florida St., Clemson, BC, Maryland... NIT-bound: Miami, VTech America East (1) - Binghamton wins final... NIT-bound: Vermont Atlantic Sun (1) - Tournament winner East Tennessee State Atlantic 10 (3) - Xavier, Temple, Dayton... NIT-bound: Rhode Island, Duquesne Big East (7) - Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Nova, Marquette, Syracuse, WV... NIT-bound: Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown Big Sky (1) - Conference winner Portland State... NIT-bound: Weber State?? Big South (1) - Top seed Radford is in. Big Ten (6) - Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Michigan... NIT-bound: Penn State, Minnesota Big 12 (6) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas... NIT-bound: Kansas State, Nebraska, Baylor Big West (1) - UC-Northridge vs. Pacific. Colonial (1) - VCU takes the title... NIT-bound: George Mason Conference USA (1) - Memphis is in... Anyone else winning tourney would be a shock... NIT-bound: Tulsa, UAB Horizon (2) - Cleveland State, Butler... NIT-bound: Green Bay Ivy League (1) - Cornell is in (No conference tournament) MAAC (1) - Siena takes the title as expected... NIT-bound: Niagara MAC (1) - Winner of Buffalo-Akron title game... Top seed Bowling Green is out. MEAC (1) - Winner of top-seed Morgan State vs. Norfolk State. Missouri Valley (2) - Northern Iowa wins conference tournament in OT, forcing Creighton to take at-large bid... NIT-bound: Illinois State Mountain West (3) - BYU, Utah, San Diego State... NIT-bound: New Mexico, UNLV Northeast (1) - Robert Morris wins title. Ohio Valley (1) - Morehead State (19-15) won conference tournament. Pac-10 (5) - Washington, UCLA, ASU, California, USC... NIT-bound: Arizona Patriot (1) - Top seed American is in. SEC (3) - LSU, Tennessee, Florida... NIT-bound - Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt Southern (1) - Chattanooga gets the upset, and the bid... NIT-bound: Davidson Southland (1) - Conference winner only... UT-SA vs. Stephen F. Austin Summit (1) - NDSU wins the conference. Sun Belt (1) - Western Kentucky... NIT-bound: Ark-Little Rock SWAC (1) - Conference winner only... Alabama State vs. Jackson State. WAC (1) - Utah State is in whether they beat Nevada in the title game or not... NIT-bound: Nevada West Coast (1) - Gonzaga is in for sure... NIT-bound: St. Mary's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 (edited) Updated through the two early games (Binghamton and Memphis) on Saturday: 1- North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Memphis 2 - Louisville, Michigan State, Duke, Oklahoma, 3 - Wake Forest, Villanova, Missouri, Kansas 4 - Gonzaga, Florida State, Xavier, Washington 5 - LSU, Syracuse, Arizona State, Marquette 6 - Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, Butler 7 - West Virginia, Clemson, Utah, Tennessee 8 - BYU, Boston College, Ohio State, Texas A&M 9 - California, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Texas 10 - San Diego State, Maryland, Siena, Michigan 11 - Temple, USC, Dayton, Wisconsin 12 - Creighton, Florida, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa 13 - VCU, Cleveland State, North Dakota State, Portland State 14 - E. Tennessee State, Cornell, American, Stephen F. Austin 15 - Binghamton, Chattanooga, Morgan State, Robert Morris 16 - Buffalo, Radford, CSU-Northridge, Morehead State, Alabama State NIT seeds as of 3/12: 1 - Auburn, Arizona, Minnesota, Penn State 2 - Mississippi State, Providence, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech 3 - Tulsa, Nevada, St. Mary's, Kentucky 4 - Baylor, UNLV, Miami, Notre Dame 5 - Duquesne, New Mexico, Kansas State, Georgetown 6 - Vanderbilt, Green Bay, Illinois State, Davidson 7 - UAB, George Mason, Niagara, Cincinnati 8 - Vermont, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Arkansas-Little Rock Teams who have a chance to get in by winning today... Auburn, Mississippi State (probably needs to win tomorrow as well), Nevada, Baylor, and Duquesne. Teams who could still get knocked off the list...Creighton, Florida, Wisconsin, and Dayton, in that order. Bold = Lock Italics = Out if they lose (no chance for at-large bid) Edited March 14, 2009 by Gopher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 FINALLY someone starts talking about the fact that Wisconsin should be a bubble team... Reece Davis, Digger Phelps, and Hubert Davis talked about how, although their schedule was tough, they didn't actually beat any quality opponents out of their conference (a point I made a few days ago). I don't know if they should necessarily be out, but the fact that they've basically been considered a lock up until now is silly... they should at least be in the bubble conversation, but IMO, get a pass based on performances in past years. They also stated that Temple and USC both need to win out to make it... I don't necessarily think so. Temple blew out Tennessee and beat Penn State on the road in non-conference, and finished 11-5 in the A-10 conference. I think they have a good shot regardless of how they do this evening. USC is a little bit tougher to say, but I still think they deserve to be in over teams who went one-and-done in their conference tournament... South Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota, and Penn State. Lots of changes since I posted my projected seeds this morning... NC, MSU, and LSU all go down, and two out of the three were by double-digits. The only thing that I think could possibly keep Memphis from a #1 seed would be Louisville winning the Big East convincingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 just a mess for the last few spots. Mind-boggling to me that Lunardi has St. Mary's IN right now- no freaking way they deserve it IMO I think USC and Temple are both in - and I think it won't matter bc I like USC over ASU tonight at Staples. Digger made a good point on the Big 10 - if MSU is the benchmark in that conference, maybe the bubble teams just simply aren't that good, but it looks like they will get 6 - with Minny and PSU on the outside looking in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 just a mess for the last few spots. Mind-boggling to me that Lunardi has St. Mary's IN right now- no freaking way they deserve it IMO I think USC and Temple are both in - and I think it won't matter bc I like USC over ASU tonight at Staples. Digger made a good point on the Big 10 - if MSU is the benchmark in that conference, maybe the bubble teams just simply aren't that good, but it looks like they will get 6 - with Minny and PSU on the outside looking in He's not exactly the only one who's made that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 I think I'd actually rather see the Big Ten only get five, and leave Wisconsin out as well, than to see the SEC only get two bids, like all of the experts are saying. I mean, come one... somebody from that conference has to be deserving, besides just Tennessee and LSU, considering they're a "major" conference, right? The problem is that most of the SEC bubble teams played absolutely no one out of conference. At least the Big Ten plays the ACC and a lot of the Big 12 teams out of conference... Mississippi State - Best win is probably Western Kentucky. They also lost to Texas Tech, Washington State, Cincinnati, and San Diego. Auburn lost to Dayton, Northern Iowa, and Xavier. Honestly, I'm not sure they have a quality win out of the SEC... Their best two are Virginia and GW. South Carolina beat nobody out of conference, other than Baylor. At least Florida beat Washington and played Florida State and Syracuse close, which is why I gave them the nod over the others. I think they're the third most-deserving team in the SEC, unless MSU can beat Tennessee, which would make them a lock. Other than that, I don't think you can make an argument for too many other teams... St. Mary's has an argument only because they probably would have won 3-4 more games had Mills been healthy. Unfortunately for them, what sticks out in everyone's minds is the bad loss to Gonzaga last week, which makes everyone ask the question... Is the West Coast Conference really good enough to deserve multiple bids? All of the other teams who had a shot going into their conference tournaments didn't do enough (or anything) to really make much of a case... Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico, Miami, Providence, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Penn State, etc. The team that keeps sticking in the back of my mind is Arizona... There is no question that they are as inconsistent as can be. However, they clearly are talented enough to play with pretty much anybody in the country. Their non-conference resume is better than any of the teams above that I mentioned... Wins against San Diego State, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Weber State (all tournament-caliber teams). They also have one-point losses to UAB and Texas A&M on the road. I'm really torn on Arizona... I think they're clearly one of the 30-35 most talented teams in the country... They just didn't do themselves ANY favors down the stretch, making it very difficult to say that they should get in for sure, given all of the others in the conversation who HAVE won a game or two in the past 10 days. I don't know... I may put them back in before all is said and done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Updated halfway through Saturday (at the start of the ASU/USC game): 1- North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Memphis 2 - Louisville, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State 3 - Wake Forest, Villanova, Missouri, Kansas 4 - Gonzaga, Florida State, Xavier, Washington 5 - Syracuse, Arizona State, Marquette, Purdue 6 - UCLA, LSU, Butler, Illinois 7 - Tennessee, West Virginia, Clemson, Utah 8 - Ohio State, BYU, Boston College, Texas A&M 9 - California, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Texas 10 - San Diego State, Maryland, Siena, Michigan 11 - Temple, USC, Dayton, Creighton 12 - Florida, Wisconsin, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa 13 - VCU, Cleveland State, North Dakota State, Portland State 14 - E. Tennessee State, Cornell, American, Stephen F. Austin 15 - Binghamton, Chattanooga, Morgan State, Robert Morris 16 - Buffalo, Radford, CSU-Northridge, Morehead State, Alabama State NIT seeds as of 3/14: 1 - Arizona, Auburn, Penn State, Minnesota 2 - Mississippi State, Providence, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech 3 - Tulsa, Nevada, St. Mary's, Kentucky 4 - Baylor, UNLV, Miami, Notre Dame 5 - Duquesne, New Mexico, Kansas State, Georgetown 6 - Vanderbilt, Green Bay, Illinois State, Davidson 7 - UAB, George Mason, Niagara, Cincinnati 8 - Vermont, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Arkansas-Little Rock Teams who have a chance to get in by winning their tournaments... , Mississippi State, Nevada, Baylor, and Duquesne. Teams who could still get knocked off the list...Wisconsin, Florida, Creighton, and Dayton, in that order. Bold = Lock Italics = Out if they lose (no chance for at-large bid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Pac-10 will get 5 for sure, with USC getting in with a fantastic 2nd half comeback to beat Arizona St. for the automatic bid. Will they get a sixth from Arizona??? Trojans could be a dangerous #11 or #12 type team. A very talented group that has been battling a variety of injuries all season. If they get matched against a mid-major power like Butler or Siena, and I'm picking them to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 (edited) Updated through Saturday's games: 1- North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Memphis 2 - Connecticut, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State 3 - Missouri, Villanova, Wake Forest, Kansas 4 - Gonzaga, Florida State, Xavier, Syracuse 5 - Washington, Arizona State, Marquette, Purdue 6 - UCLA, LSU, Butler, Illinois 7 - Tennessee, West Virginia, Clemson, Utah 8 - Ohio State, BYU, Boston College, Texas A&M 9 - California, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Texas 10 - USC, Maryland, Siena, Michigan 11 - Temple, San Diego State, Dayton, Creighton 12 - Florida, Arizona, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa 13 - VCU, Cleveland State, American, Stephen F. Austin 14 - North Dakota State, Binghamton, Robert Morris, Akron, 15 - Cornell, Portland State, E. Tennessee State, Radford 16 - Morehead State, Morgan State, CSU-Northridge, Chattanooga, Alabama State NIT seeds as of 3/15: 1 - Wisconsin, Auburn, Penn State, Minnesota 2 - Mississippi State, Providence, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech 3 - Tulsa, Nevada, St. Mary's, Kentucky 4 - Baylor, UNLV, Miami, Notre Dame 5 - Duquesne, New Mexico, Kansas State, Georgetown 6 - Vanderbilt, Green Bay, Illinois State, Davidson 7 - UAB, George Mason, Niagara, Cincinnati 8 - Vermont, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Arkansas-Little Rock Bold = Lock Italics = Out if they lose (no chance for at-large bid) Edited March 15, 2009 by Gopher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 The only team left who can really throw a wrench into things is Mississippi State... If they win tomorrow, it will bump another bubble team out. For me, that would mean Florida or Arizona. I put Arizona back in, and left Wisconsin out, mainly due to non-conference schedule (quality wins), as I mentioned earlier. Tough call, either way, though. As far as the other three games tomorrow, I don't think the Duke-FSU game will have much impact on things overall... Duke is a #2 either way, IMO, while FSU is probably a four-seed regardless of who wins. Purdue can secure a five-seed with a win tomorrow, while a loss might slide them back to a six... Ohio State could move up to a seven with a win, possibly swapping places with Utah. A Tennessee win would cause them to move up and trade spots with Illinois, while a MSU win would slide them in to an 11-seed, pushing one of the 12-seeds off the board. Lastly, the Southland Conference winner (I have Stephen F. Austin projected, as they are the top seed) will fill the final bracket spot. It will be interesting to see how things pan out, and how far off I am on these predictions. I've made a point all week not to look at all of the "bracketology" boards on ESPN, Sportsline, etc. Watching as many games as I did, it's basically impossible to not hear bits and pieces of who is projected as in or out by various experts... Digger, Hubert Davis, Vitale, Kellogg, Greg Anthony, Jay Bilas, etc. But, I've tried to assemble these predicted seeds based solely on the information I looked at myself... teams' records, quality wins (particularly out of conference), bad losses, and lastly RPI. I didn't put a whole lot of weight on the RPI rating of any team, but did use them to help in seeding the 13-16 seeds. I have to admit, I haven't seen a lot of American or Morehead State this year, so it seemed like the best way to seed them consistently. As far as the #1 seeds go, here is my thought process... I think NC is a #1, no question. Pittsburgh and UConn have four losses each all season, and I think they're both top-five teams, no doubt. However, Pitt dominated UConn twice this year, giving them the HTH edge. Louisville might be the hottest team in the country right now, and after they put a halt to the Syracuse run in the Big East, I don't see any way not to give them a #1. That leaves Memphis and UConn... Looking strictly at their "bodies of work" this season, I would be inclined to give the nod to UConn... stronger schedule, MUCH stronger conference, etc. However, if I ask myself the question of which team do I think has a better chance to win it all, I'm not so sure it's not Memphis at this point. UConn may have had one of the top four seasons in college basketball this year, but I don't think they're one of the four teams most likely to win the championship, in large part to the absence left by their guard, Dyson. I think the committee will recognize this, and adjust their seeding for UConn based on the fact that they are missing one of their top players, and have struggled somewhat without him. They've gone from a clear-cut favorite to win it all, to a top 6-7 team who has lost two straight games, and three of their last six. As much as their season-long performance justifies a #1 seed, I think their current "condition" might very well warrant a #2, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's where they're slated tomorrow. I do have to get one thing off my chest, so to speak... I've been saying all week that Penn State and Minnesota were most likely out. After "crunching the numbers", I just didn't see any way that they were both in, as many of the "experts" seemed to assume. It almost seemed like a foregone conclusion that they weren't even really in much danger of not making the dance. So, both teams go out and win their first conference tournament game, against Indiana and Northwestern, respectively. Both games that they should win, so no surprise there, really. Then, in the next round, Penn State loses to Purdue, while Minnesota plays Michigan State close, but loses also. Contrary to the first-round games, these were both games that neither team was expected to win. Yet, all of the sudden, both teams are out, in the minds of most of these so-called experts. It's almost as if they didn't do the math to begin with... A lot of these guys are so quick to say that so-and-so is in, based on their resume, that they don't stop to think about where that team stands in relation to the rest of the "bubble." Same thing with Wisconsin... No mention a week ago as to whether or not they would be in. It was not mentioned because nobody thought there was any question. Even I didn't mention the Badgers until a day or two ago, when I actually looked at their resume a little bit closer. I wonder if these ESPN and CBS guys intentionally try to make it seem like more teams are going to get in, than actually can, just to cause more drama to the average fan when the bubbles of certain teams burst on Sunday? Can't wait for tomorrow... Then, back to work for one day (Monday), and on vacation the rest of the week to enjoy the games with some friends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Gopher, Your contributions here are much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 (edited) I echo the sentiments of really pumping a lot of great analysis into this thread Gopher. I do have to say that I'm curious how accurate you'll be on both numbers and seeds. ESPN always pimps Lunardi for picking high numbers, but his seeding has never been particularly accurate from #5 to #11 or so. I'm mostly curious how many of the teams I wouldn't put on there that you do make it. ETA: When it all comes down to it, Maryland and Florida that you have in that I'm not 100% sold on. Does the SEC really only get 2 teams in??? I think Minnesota and UAB both have a crack in their spots. And I'll be extra curious if they throw the mid-majors a bone with either Illinois St. or St. Mary's. Edited March 15, 2009 by godtomsatan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Gopher, Your contributions here are much appreciated. No problem... This is my favorite sporting event of the year, by far. I really can't get enough college basketball this time of year. The only part I dislike about the NCAA tournament is that, once it starts, the first four rounds seem to go by so quickly. Even if you get the tournament package through DirecTV or go to a sports bar and watch multiple games at once, it's impossible to catch all of the action. CBS does a decent job of trying to center their coverage around the most competitive matchups, but they also have to factor in regional preferences, etc., so it's sometimes annoying to put up with what they're showing... one game over another. I don't like the fact that we're at the mercy of the network to decide which game we should watch. When there happens to be multiple games that are simultaneously down-to-the-wire, we miss out on some great action. Personally, if it was up to me, they would do the first four rounds NFL-playoff format, where all the games are played consecutively. It could be set up like this: Week 1 (first round) Tuesday - Start with the play-in game, followed by two first-round games (all three at the same location, beginning at 5 PM EST). That leaves 30 more first-round games... Wednesday through Sunday - Six games each day, starting with three East coast games (at the same location) at approximately 11 AM, 1:30, and 4 PM, followed by three West coast games at 5:00, 7:30, and 10:00 EST. The second half of the last East coast game would overlap with the first half of the first West coast game, but viewers would still be able to see the second half of both, basically... Games would go until 12-1 AM EST, which is about the same as what they do now. That would complete the first round (the winner of the play-in game would play their first-round game on Saturday/Sunday, to allow for ample travel time, etc.). That's eleven first-round locations, with three back-to-back games at each spot. Week 2 (second round) Starts on Tuesday of the following week... Play two games each night (7 and 9:30 PM EST), Tuesday through Friday (that's eight games), and play the other eight on the weekend... four Saturday and four Sunday, starting at like 1 PM EST. Week 3 (3rd and 4th rounds) Two games per night, Tuesday-Friday, would knock out the third round games. Play the four regional championships on the weekend (two each day). They could set up the locations however they chose to do so... It could be two games at each spot, or four games. Four would mean that a location might have the Tuesday/Thursday games or the Wednesday/Friday games, etc. Final four would be the same as it is now. Basically, by adding a week, you're allowing every game to be played consecutively, instead of concurrently. Probably will never happen, but I think it would be awesome. I mean, for as long as the NBA, NHL, and MLB playoffs are drawn out, why not extend the best sporting event in the country by one more week? They could even start it one week earlier to make up for it... Get rid of a couple of meaningless non-conference games for everyone, and you push everything up one week. Sound familiar? In case you were wondering, I'm also a big proponent of a college football playoff. Like I said, this would probably never happen, but I don't see why it couldn't... it would be a sweet deal for die-hard basketball fans like us. The only argument one could make is that teams would have too much time off between games during those first two weeks. However, after the conference tournaments, I think most teams would actually appreciate the few extra days for rest/practice in between actual games. The TV money would actually be better, and since that is what sports is all about these days, I think that would be a positive aspect of the argument as well. It's hard to justify trying to change what is an almost perfect event right now... that's not really what I'm saying. All I'm saying is that, in a perfect world, we wouldn't have to miss so much of the action over the course of the first two weeks of the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Updated with only the Purdue/OSU game remaining: 1- North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Memphis 2 - Connecticut, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State 3 - Missouri, Villanova, Wake Forest, Kansas 4 - Gonzaga, Florida State, Xavier, Syracuse 5 - Washington, Arizona State, Marquette, Purdue 6 - UCLA, LSU, Butler, Illinois 7 - Tennessee, West Virginia, Clemson, Utah 8 - Ohio State, BYU, Boston College, Texas A&M 9 - California, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Texas 10 - USC, Mississippi State, Siena, Temple, 11 - Maryland, Michigan, San Diego State, Dayton, 12 - Creighton, Arizona, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa 13 - VCU, Cleveland State, American, Stephen F. Austin 14 - North Dakota State, Binghamton, Robert Morris, Akron, 15 - Cornell, Portland State, E. Tennessee State, Radford 16 - Morehead State, Morgan State, CSU-Northridge, Chattanooga, Alabama State NIT seeds as of 3/15: 1 - Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota 2 - Auburn, Providence, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech 3 - Tulsa, Nevada, St. Mary's, Kentucky 4 - Baylor, UNLV, Miami, Notre Dame 5 - Duquesne, New Mexico, Kansas State, Georgetown 6 - Vanderbilt, Green Bay, Illinois State, Davidson 7 - UAB, George Mason, Niagara, Cincinnati 8 - Vermont, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Arkansas-Little Rock Bold = Lock Italics = Out if they lose (no chance for at-large bid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 i havent read this entire thread...so someone might have already mentioned it....but its gotta kill zona to look back at those two games they lost because jamelle horne fouled a guy, when the game was tied, thinking they were behind....i think the first time it was with less than a second left and the guy was at halfcourt.....cant remember how much time was left the second time he did it....but i dont think it was much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 I still might slide OSU up slightly if they hold off Purdue, but other than that, I THINK I have everything pretty much set. A few things I am particularly interested to see, in no particular order: - Does UConn or Memphis get the final #1 seed? Or, is it neither, and does Duke get it for winning the ACC? I don't think they will, but you never know... Duke is an interesting team because they can play anybody close (key work is ANYBODY). Since they rely so much on the outside shot, they can beat anyone in the country when they're hot, or play down to the level of an 8/9 seed if they're not. - How many teams do the big conferences get in... particularly the "weaker" ones (Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC). I'm fairly certain the Big East and ACC get seven each, and the Big 12 should get six, but the others are a little more in question... The SEC is no longer in danger of just two (MSU will be the third), but does Florida or Auburn make it as well? The Big Ten is a cluster, with PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all right on the bubble. I tend to think that only one of the four will make it (I'm going with Michigan, due to their non-conference wins), but who knows... It could be 2-3 of the four make it, or none at all. In the Pac 10, the question is simple... Will the committee recognize Arizona's early wins over Gonzaga and Kansas, or will they be out due to their poor finish this season? - How many at-large bids do the mid-majors get? I have Xavier, Butler, BYU, SDSU, Dayton, and Creighton. Will SDSU, Dayton, and Creighton make it? Will there be more... St. Mary's, Nevada, Illinois State, Tulsa, UNLV, Duquesne, Rhode Island? - Along those same lines, where do the mid-major bids go, as far as seeds? Is Xavier really a 3-4 seed? Is Butler any better than a 5-6? Where do some of the other strong conference winners go... Utah, Siena, WKU? - How much do teams get rewarded for making a run in the conference tournament... Syracuse, Florida State, Arizona State, West Virginia, Ohio State, USC, Mississippi State, Maryland? - Likewise, how much do others get penalized for losing relatively early... Pitt, UConn, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Wake, Xavier, Washington, LSU, UCLA, Texas A&M, BYU, Clemson? All of these questions should be pretty much answered in a little over an hour.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 i havent read this entire thread...so someone might have already mentioned it....but its gotta kill zona to look back at those two games they lost because jamelle horne fouled a guy, when the game was tied, thinking they were behind....i think the first time it was with less than a second left and the guy was at halfcourt.....cant remember how much time was left the second time he did it....but i dont think it was much It was their second game of the year... lost to UAB by one. Yeah, that hurts, for sure, but I'm not sure that's going to hurt them as much as their performance down the stretch in conference. Losing a must-win home game to Cal could be the game that stands out the most, in terms of resume blemishes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Seriously, the more I look at it, the more I think Arizona has the edge on Wisconsin... Records are nearly identical 19-13 (9-9) vs. 19-12 (10-8). Let's look at how they did against top competition, however: - Arizona split with the top two teams in the conference (Washington and UCLA), as well as USC. What hurts them is that they were swept by ASU and Cal. So, against the top five Pac 10 teams, they're 3-7. They also split with WSU, and went 4-0 against the weak Oregon teams. Wisconsin was swept by Purdue, lost to Michigan State (only played once), and split with Illinois (winning at home). That's 1-4 against the top 3 teams in the Big Ten. They also swept Michigan and Penn State, lost twice to Minnesota, and split with Northwestern and Iowa. The two games against bottom-dweller Indiana gave them the additional wins to get to 10-8 in conference. Throw out the games against poor competition (Iowa, Indiana, Oregon, and OSU), and Wisconsin was 7-7, while Arizona was 5-9. However, where I think Arizona has the advantage is that they proved that they are able to beat top competition (Washington and UCLA), while the Badgers went winless against Purdue and MSU. - Arizona beat Gonzaga, Kansas, and SDSU out of conference, while losing one-point games to Texas A&M and UAB. Their only other loss out of conference was to UNLV, which is not a bad loss, necessarily, but given that it was by a margin of 15, I would put it in that category. So, in terms of tournament-caliber teams, 'Zona was 3-3 (4-3 if you include their win over Weber State, which was a big favorite to win the Big Sky, but failed to do so). Wisconsin, meanwhile, played five non-conference games against tournament-quality competition. They beat Green Bay by 20 and Virginia Tech by 2. They lost the other three... two close games to Texas and Marquette, and a 19-point loss to UConn. If you look strictly at the ability to beat good teams, I give Arizona the nod here as well. Bottom line... Wisconsin was the more consistent team... Didn't beat anybody great, had a couple of bad losses, and really did fairly well against the middle of the road teams, in conference. Arizona, on the other hand, struggled against some of the middle-tier teams (UAB, A&M, Cal), but proved that when they're playing well, they can beat the better teams in their conference, and out of conference as well. Personally, I'd rather watch the team who I know can beat anybody, on any given night, rather than the more predictable, less-dangerous team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Final update (unless I change my mind in the next few minutes) ... 1- North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Memphis 2 - Connecticut, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State 3 - Missouri, Villanova, Wake Forest, Kansas 4 - Florida State, Xavier, Syracuse, Purdue 5 - Gonzaga, Washington, Arizona State, Marquette 6 - UCLA, LSU, Butler, Clemson 7 - Tennessee, West Virginia, Illinois, Utah 8 - Ohio State, BYU, Boston College, Texas A&M 9 - California, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Texas 10 - USC, Mississippi State, Siena, Temple, 11 - Maryland, Michigan, San Diego State, Dayton, 12 - Creighton, Arizona, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa 13 - VCU, Cleveland State, American, Stephen F. Austin 14 - North Dakota State, Binghamton, Robert Morris, Akron, 15 - Cornell, Portland State, E. Tennessee State, Radford 16 - Morehead State, Morgan State, CSU-Northridge, Chattanooga, Alabama State NIT seeds as of 3/15: 1 - Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota 2 - St. Mary's, Auburn, Providence, Virginia Tech 3 - Tulsa, Nevada, Rhode Island, Kentucky 4 - Baylor, UNLV, Miami, Notre Dame 5 - Duquesne, New Mexico, Kansas State, Georgetown 6 - Vanderbilt, Green Bay, Illinois State, Davidson 7 - UAB, George Mason, Niagara, Cincinnati 8 - Vermont, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Arkansas-Little Rock Bold = Lock Italics = Out if they lose (no chance for at-large bid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 1- North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Memphis I think Duke gets in over Memphis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 (edited) Louisville, Pitt, UNC, and UConn.....are #1s. So much for the poopooing of the Big East getting 3 #1s. Edited March 15, 2009 by godtomsatan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 I think Duke gets in over Memphis. Guess we're both wrong... It's UConn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 One thing's for sure... I'm more nervous than I've ever been before a selection show. I'm not sure if it's due to MN being on the bubble, or the fact that I'm in danger of embarrassing myself when the actual selections are revealed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billay Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Wake could be a brutal 4 seed. Especially if you are the overall #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 15, 2009 Author Share Posted March 15, 2009 Midwest - So far, so good. Everybody is within one seed of where I had them, other than Utah (off by two). Not only is Arizona in, but they get a VERY favorable matchup against the Utes. In fact, I would go so far as to say that the game will be close to a pick'em game. Definitely not what you would think of as a typical 5-12 contest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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