Rookie Draft

[Dr. Love]

I lean towards Wells, because the Denver situation - both the backfield and the team overall - seems to be such a fiasco right now. Am I missing something?

[Wpob]

I lean towards Wells, because the Denver situation - both the backfield and the team overall - seems to be such a fiasco right now. Am I missing something?

 

If you are in a dynasrty/keeper league, my choice first would be Shonn Green and then Donald Brown follwed by Moreno then Wells. I think Green is the starter either mid way throuhg this season or next for sure and I am biased towards Brown as I saw him play alot at UConn and really believe he will be something special. In fact, I would probably take him over Green due to his higher ceiling (IMO). But I am probably in the minority here.

 

Between the two, I would take Moreno since I have a bad feeling about Wells' fit in AZ.

[RJV]

Dont forget about McCoy. Westy is starting to loose the luster of his stellar career and McCoy is going to be the heir to him here in Philly. If this is the case, McCoy is a goldmine with that amazing O-Line.

Edited May 11, 2009 by RJV

[The Wolf]

I took Moreno at 1.1 in a dynasty and have not looked back. Too many ?? around Wells to take him at #1.

[Dr. Love]

I took Moreno at 1.1 in a dynasty and have not looked back. Too many ?? around Wells to take him at #1.

What questions do you see? Situation or talent? I think the situation is top-notch; ARZ cut James, have a great passing game and a need for an every-down back. Sure, some TD's might get vultured, but that seems to be the worst of it. I figure that Denver will be a mess with McDaniels and Orton (not to mention Buckhalter, et. al.). I don't follow college closely, though... are there questions about Beanie's talent that I'm not taking into consideration?

[The Wolf]

What questions do you see? Situation or talent? I think the situation is top-notch; ARZ cut James, have a great passing game and a need for an every-down back. Sure, some TD's might get vultured, but that seems to be the worst of it. I figure that Denver will be a mess with McDaniels and Orton (not to mention Buckhalter, et. al.). I don't follow college closely, though... are there questions about Beanie's talent that I'm not taking into consideration?

 

Well...I should never ave written "questions." It is really only one: his ability to stay healthy. I couldn't blow a first overall rookie pick on a player who is so injury-prone.

 

Yes, AP had the same rap, but I needed a RB and took the one whom I felt was a safer pick.

[BIG SACK]

I am not sure if I recall a more underrated RB than Moreno. I personally believe he is the next great RB in the NFL and should have all the hype that comes along with his talent level. The O-line in Denver is very good and the other so called RB's are all backup material. I was taking Moreno 1.1 no matter what NFL team landed him. I would be very surprised if he wasn't a top 10 NFL RB by year two.

 

Not sold on Wells. He looks talented but in Arizona they pass often and I'm not sure he can be that type of back to sit back and pass block/ catch swing passes. I would be surprised if he was a 1,000 yard rusher this season.

[WashingtonD]

The problem with Wells is until the Cardinals figure out how to

 

A ) Run Block

B ) Call running plays that are not retarded

 

it's going to be very difficult for any RB to be consistently successful in that uniform.

Edited May 14, 2009 by WashingtonD

[sspun13]

The worst part is the best running backs from this years crop went to backup roles or time sharing roles (LeSean McCoy, Donald Brown, and Moreno)

 

Regular Drafts:

 

Donald Brown: More likely to split carries evenly than any of the other backs, but I see him finishing the season way better than he starts it.

Knowshon Moreno: Starter and will get receptions. Even if one of his fellow RBs gets hurt there's 2 more waiting behind him, while Brown only has Addai to fight off.

Chris Wells: More touches than McCoy but less explosive in my opinion. I only take him higher b/c I'm sure McCoy will fall in normal drafts.

LeSean McCoy: 10 touches per game max, but will start 3 or 4 games when Westbrook sits out injured.

Shonn Greene: Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are too good right now. Only valuable if Jones gets the boot.

 

Keeper:

McCoy: Basing this on PPR when Westbrook is gone. Reminds me of Felix Jones and Chris Johnson.

Brown Addai is the latest stud RB that got overworked, Brown will take over very soon just like Addai took over for Rhodes.

Greene: I'd have him higher but even after Jones is gone in a year or two he's still gotta fight Washington off and that won't be easy.

Moreno: We've learned to work with 2 headed RBs in fantasy, but 3 or 4 is just too much touches being stolen.

Wells: Just not high on bruiser backs. Reminds me of the Bensons and Ron Daynes. Lowest Ceiling of all of them, but probably the highest floor.

[tazinib1]

It's odd that people think Moreno is going to a RBBC.

 

What makes y'all think that? What facts support that idea?

 

He will share as much as AP does.

 

+1 He's the centerpiece of the new Bronco realm weather Denver fans like it or not. And just because McMegan Fox is a Belichek clone, doesn't mean there will be plethora of RB's carrying the ball each game. Moreno will start and see 20+ touches per game. EASILY.

[Donutrun Jellies]

It's odd that people think Moreno is going to a RBBC.

 

What makes y'all think that? What facts support that idea?

 

He will share as much as AP does.

I like Moreno's chances to get a decent number of carries this year, but stop short of the "Share as much as AP" assertion. Minne carries three RBs, according to their website's roster. Denver is carrying SEVEN. What are Buckhalter, Jordan, and Torain going to do -- cover kicks? Maybe Denver will go with Moreno, give Buckhalter some mop up, and let the others recline and eat grapes -- but their roster/managment confusion makes me nervous for Moreno ... Here's hoping the preseaon resolves it.

 

Denver's Currently Rostered Running Backs:

Arrington

Buckhalter

Jordan

Torain

Walker

Moore

Moreno

 

Minne's Currently Rostered Running Backs:

Peterson

Taylor

Young

[irish]

I like Moreno's chances to get a decent number of carries this year, but stop short of the "Share as much as AP" assertion. Minne carries three RBs, according to their website's roster. Denver is carrying SEVEN. What are Buckhalter, Jordan, and Torain going to do -- cover kicks? Maybe Denver will go with Moreno, give Buckhalter some mop up, and let the others recline and eat grapes -- but their roster/managment confusion makes me nervous for Moreno ... Here's hoping the preseaon resolves it.

 

Denver's Currently Rostered Running Backs:

Arrington

Buckhalter

Jordan

Torain

Walker

Moore

Moreno

 

Minne's Currently Rostered Running Backs:

Peterson

Taylor

Young

 

I know the Broncos have seven listed but I certainly don't feel they will all be there when the dust settles and the season starts. I think Torain will be gone sooner rather than later. Arrington may get a few looks in the passing game but otherwise will be a ST contributor. There was talk of Jordan being a short yardage/GL guy, so we'll see what shakes out there. Walker and Moore = depth. So really IMO, it'll probably come down to the 2 guys a bolded with a few receptions going to Arrington and Jordan's role is up in the air.

 

Oh and I like Moreno better than Wells. Moreno could very well be this year's Matt Forte. Maybe not as productive but certainly the #1 overall rookie RB who could crack the Top 10 in FantasyLand.

[sspun13]

It's odd that people think Moreno is going to a RBBC.

 

What makes y'all think that? What facts support that idea?

 

He will share as much as AP does.

 

Because it's a proven way to keep your studs healthy and playing at a stud level, and because that's what Bill Parcells disciples do. Look at Bellicheck, Payton, Coughlin, Sporano, etc. All those teams are RBBC.

 

Obviously Moreno is the most fantasy worthy Denver back, but look at that backfiefld. They all can catch (Arrington, Buckhalter, Joradan), and 2 or 3 of them can handle goal line duty (Jordan, Torrain, not sure who else). Correct me if I'm wrong because I've never watched Moreno play, but I've seen some video on him and he's not exactly a home run threat, he's more of a complete back who relies on strength, athleticism, and great vision rather than pure speed.

 

So he's not a home run threat, he's not your top goal line option, and he's got 3 guys behind him who can steal those important catches. It's not a knock on him, just where he went. I rather have Donald Brown because he's only got Addai in front of him, but honestly I'll still be targetting Moreno, just after a few of those other guys.

[godtomsatan]

Moreno: We've learned to work with 2 headed RBs in fantasy, but 3 or 4 is just too much touches being stolen.

 

I might agree with this synopsis in a redraft analysis, but this is nowhere near valid from a keeper standpoint. Moreno was a first round draft pick on a team without an incumbent starting RB. That is gigantic and way more valuable than players taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds backing up All-Pro type players or other first rounders going into RBBC situations.

[godtomsatan]

Because it's a proven way to keep your studs healthy and playing at a stud level, and because that's what Bill Parcells disciples do. Look at Bellicheck, Payton, Coughlin, Sporano, etc. All those teams are RBBC.

 

Is that based on philosophy or playing the cards they're dealt?

 

When Belichek had Corey Dillon did he use an RBBC? How healthy has the McAlliser/Bush combo been for Payton? Sporano has Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown on his roster and Chad Pennington as his QB; what the hell else is he supposed to do with that offense?

 

Despite the day and age we live in, RBs with vision who can run inside and outside, catch the ball, and block will get all the carries their team needs them to take. The ones with deficiencies will split time with those backs who complement them. Even in supposed RBBC's, it's still one back getting the majority of carries during the course of games.

[sspun13]

Is that based on philosophy or playing the cards they're dealt?

 

When Belichek had Corey Dillon did he use an RBBC? How healthy has the McAlliser/Bush combo been for Payton? Sporano has Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown on his roster and Chad Pennington as his QB; what the hell else is he supposed to do with that offense?

 

Despite the day and age we live in, RBs with vision who can run inside and outside, catch the ball, and block will get all the carries their team needs them to take. The ones with deficiencies will split time with those backs who complement them. Even in supposed RBBC's, it's still one back getting the majority of carries during the course of games.

 

First of all whoever pointed out my analysis on Moreno as a keeper your right that was more of a redraft analysis. I'd probably bump him ahead of Shonn Greene because I expect the Denver RB situation to be sorted out sooner than later, but I still like the other two over him based on the situations they fell in.

 

As for this post I quoted, you're pointing out the ONE single year that Bellicheck leaned heavily on a RB. Dillon almost had 400 carries or something like that, it was his first year with the Patriots and Bellicheck was treating him like a brand new toy. But what happened the next year? The carries were split.

 

McCalllister? He's not a rookie, he was never in a time share during his 3 or 4 seasons where all the wear and tear came on him. Bush? That arguement isn't even valid with him because he got injured his rookie year, AND he time shared in college , just like he was time shared his entire short NFL career. He's obviously injury prone and if he cant' stay healthy in a time share what do you think would happen to him with a full load?

 

And work with what you got? Well guess what McDaniels got? A QB that he ran out of town, a horrible defense he didn't fix, 7 running backs and 2 stud WRs with an at best AVERAGE NFL QB throwing them the ball. LaMont Jordan said it himself when someone asked him about all the running backs on Denver's roster, he said they're in an offense that might throw the ball 60 times one week and then run it 60 times the next week, and then he said there will be carries to go around, and trust me, they'll go around.

 

Again I'm not saying Moreno won't be fantasy relevant this year. I'm saying Brown got the best situation out of all the rookies this year, redraft and keeper included. Moreno's my #2 in terms of redraft behind Brown, and #3 in terms of keeper behind Brown and McCoy.

Edited May 17, 2009 by sspun13

[sspun13]

Little side note here, even though I got Brown as my #1, McCoy as my #2, and Moreno as my #3 in Keepers, doesn't mean I'd draft them like that. McCoy will definitely fall in most drafts, and I think Moreno goes in front of Brown in most drafts I'm not sure yet. Just depends on the value and how the players fall.

 

But in an actual Dynasty Draft they'll all be gone in round 1, so it'd depend on my team to be honest. If I was in need of immediate help at RB I'd def grab Moreno over McCoy. But if I had depth and could gamble on McCoys future I def would he's such a perfect fit for that team.

Edited May 17, 2009 by sspun13

[tazinib1]

Little side note here, even though I got Brown as my #1, McCoy as my #2, and Moreno as my #3 in Keepers, doesn't mean I'd draft them like that. McCoy will definitely fall in most drafts, and I think Moreno goes in front of Brown in most drafts I'm not sure yet. Just depends on the value and how the players fall.

 

But in an actual Dynasty Draft they'll all be gone in round 1, so it'd depend on my team to be honest. If I was in need of immediate help at RB I'd def grab Moreno over McCoy. But if I had depth and could gamble on McCoys future I def would he's such a perfect fit for that team.

 

Unless your on another planet, you will not see Brown drafted in front of Moreno.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I think it boils down to this: do you want to be safe? Or take a guy with the chance to be a stud?

 

I think Moreno is the safe pick. Decent RB. A bit undersized and takes risks with his health (Maroney? Cadillac?), but is in a good situation where he won't be asked to carry the load. He'll get 15-18 touches a game and do well with them. Probably a fringe top 10 guy long-term.

 

Wells is the riskier pick, but has the best shot to be a consistent top 5 player at his position. He has the size, speed, skill, and (some will laugh) smarts to get out of bounds and/or avoid unnecessary hits. Some say it is softness. I watch the film and I don't see softness, I see a smart guy who wants to play a long time avoiding big shots. I think he can be somewhere between Jamal Lewis and Adrian Peterson if things work out. Plus he has the team around him that won't allow teams to stack the line, and they are high scoring. Lots of spread formations with plenty of lanes and scoring opportunities is what I see. Solid top 10 long-term.

 

I guess you can see who I like better...

[godtomsatan]

First of all whoever pointed out my analysis on Moreno as a keeper your right that was more of a redraft analysis. I'd probably bump him ahead of Shonn Greene because I expect the Denver RB situation to be sorted out sooner than later, but I still like the other two over him based on the situations they fell in.

 

While I would not be shocked if some other RB had a better career than Moreno out of this draft, the point of the high end of a dynasty league draft (like the NFL draft) is to minimize your risk with the picks you take. Again, Moreno is a 1st Round RB on a team with no incumbent running game on the roster. That means the Denver Broncos organization is going to pay him a large sum of money to do what you want him to do for your fantasy squad and there isn't anyone in Englewood that can stop him.

 

As for this post I quoted, you're pointing out the ONE single year that Bellicheck leaned heavily on a RB. Dillon almost had 400 carries or something like that, it was his first year with the Patriots and Bellicheck was treating him like a brand new toy. But what happened the next year? The carries were split.

 

McCalllister? He's not a rookie, he was never in a time share during his 3 or 4 seasons where all the wear and tear came on him. Bush? That arguement isn't even valid with him because he got injured his rookie year, AND he time shared in college , just like he was time shared his entire short NFL career. He's obviously injury prone and if he cant' stay healthy in a time share what do you think would happen to him with a full load?

 

And work with what you got? Well guess what McDaniels got? A QB that he ran out of town, a horrible defense he didn't fix, 7 running backs and 2 stud WRs with an at best AVERAGE NFL QB throwing them the ball. LaMont Jordan said it himself when someone asked him about all the running backs on Denver's roster, he said they're in an offense that might throw the ball 60 times one week and then run it 60 times the next week, and then he said there will be carries to go around, and trust me, they'll go around.

 

Again I'm not saying Moreno won't be fantasy relevant this year. I'm saying Brown got the best situation out of all the rookies this year, redraft and keeper included. Moreno's my #2 in terms of redraft behind Brown, and #3 in terms of keeper behind Brown and McCoy.

 

You said RBBC was "proven" to do various things that Bill Parcells disciples apparently adhere to, and I'm pointing out that they are football coaches who play to the strengths of their personnel more than follow a such a rigid philosophy on offense.

[godtomsatan]

Wells is the riskier pick, but has the best shot to be a consistent top 5 player at his position.

 

Then how does that make him riskier?

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Then how does that make him riskier?

 

 

Because Moreno has no chance to ever be a top 5 player, IMO. He could be a fringe top-10 guy, best case scenario.

 

Wells can be top 5 if the chips fall right. And Wells has an injury history, making him a less safe pick.

[piratesownninjas]

Wells and Moreno are 1a and 1b. Then a massive gap to the next group.

[godtomsatan]

Because Moreno has no chance to ever be a top 5 player, IMO. He could be a fringe top-10 guy, best case scenario.

 

Wells can be top 5 if the chips fall right. And Wells has an injury history, making him a less safe pick.

 

You make no sense whatsoever.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

You make no sense whatsoever.

 

 

Let me spell it out for you.

 

Who is the safer pick, Westbrook or Portis?

 

The answer is Portis. Because he plays when hurt, and will get you 80-100 yards a game, with TDs sprinkled in. But Portis will not finish top 5 at his position. He is a fringe top 10 guy. Westy is guaranteed to miss a few games and be listed as questionable for countless others, making him a riskier draft pick.

 

Who is more likely to finish top 5? Westbrook. He gets more combined yards and scores more than Portis, making him top 5 almost every season. Westy's big game potential is also way above that of Portis. We will have 3-4 TD games from time to time, due to the manner in which he is used in space.

 

While I don't think Beanie and Moreno are as good as these guys, I think as far as dynasty drafts go--it's a good way to separate the two.