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RB study


Brentastic
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With all the top 5 top 10 lists regarding RBs - I'd love to have an in-depth discussion on the late 1st, early 2nd round guys. These are guys that were highly regarded last year or the year before but after having disapointing years have dropped, yet have the ability to be top 5 guys.

 

The guys I'd like to discuss are:

 

Frank Gore

Marion Barber

Ronnie Brown

Joseph Addai

Steven Jackson (I know many have him in the top 5 already but he has been hurt and plays on an awful team, so I'd like to discuss further)

 

The list above has been narrowed down by selecting guys who are in their 4-6 seasons (prime production per my research) and who have shown an elite ability in the past only to disappoint more recently.

 

Me personally, I like the prospects of Gore and Barber the best this year (from the list above). I think both have a chance to crack the top 5 by season's end. Both can probably be had in the late 1st or 2nd round.

 

Ronnie Brown is another interesting player. Surprising everyone last year by surpassing expectations in his first season after ACL surgery. Does he continue to get better or is the tough rushing schedule going to be a factor?

 

Joseph Addai - last year, a consensus top 5 pick has now fallen completely out of the top 15 on most lists. It's hard to get a read on this guy.

 

Sjax - uber stud when healthy but has had trouble with staying healthy. Plus, STL has zero offensive weapons this season with Holt gone. The O-line is also a hugh question mark. Does Sjax get it done or will it be another long year in STL?

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Outside of Jackson, I think Gore is probably the safest, in that he is by far the best weapon on offense. He has disappointed the last 2 seasons but I think he'll have every oppotunity to succeed in a system based in a power running running attack. Gore has awesome vision and follows his blockers well and has some incredible open field moves. The return of Moran Norris (assuming the line does it's job) should open up some big runs for Gore. Norris has the speed and power to get into the linebacker and Gore's speed and moves can do the rest. I think Gore is the one guy outside of the top 8-10 backs who really has the all purpose RB skill set. If Gore can stay healthy I could see 10 td's with about 1600 total yds.and 50+ receptions.

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I've had Jackson the last three years. If he was still there at the end of round two I would take him. I have never seen such a studly looking man play like such a little girl for so many years. How can anyone who is not immediate family of his still be on that bandwagon? Are you guys judging based off of how he looks in pads?

 

With Gore, you know what you're gonna get. He is going to be a workhorse for that team. He may not have the high ceiling, but he will be consistent. He is the safest pick here.

 

Barber---see S Jackson. Looks awesome in pads, doesn't bring it like it looks like he should. I'll take him mid to late second, not before.

 

Addai---something tells me he is going to be phased out. Just a hunch.

 

I think Brown is the wild card. I think he is the only one from this group that can potentially be the #1 RB this season. He is in the right offense, and he has played at that kind of clip before. He had really come into his own before the ACL. If he can get back to close to that level, he will be the pick of this group, and possibly the steal of the fantasy draft if he falls far enough.

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Barber---see S Jackson. Looks awesome in pads, doesn't bring it like it looks like he should. I'll take him mid to late second, not before.

Just so I'm reading this right. Are you saying that M. Barber does not run hard enough? That he should be a stronger force than he is? I had issues with his RBBC being a tougher committe to compete against along with all the WRs limiting his touches. I haven't heard many people complain about him playing like a wuss (which has been a normal criticism of Sjax).

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Just so I'm reading this right. Are you saying that M. Barber does not run hard enough? That he should be a stronger force than he is? I had issues with his RBBC being a tougher committe to compete against along with all the WRs limiting his touches. I haven't heard many people complain about him playing like a wuss (which has been a normal criticism of Sjax).

 

+1 They don't call him Marion the Barbarian for nothing. My only concern with Marion, is Felix and Co. He'll lose touches for sure, but I believe the GL work is his all alone and with TO out of town, there should be more running patterns in the playbook inside the 10. He's still a great bet for 10-14 TD's.

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I don't want to hijack the thread, but I'd take Brandon Jacobs above all of the aforementioned ('cept maybe SJax). I see him at least equaling his total from last year and more likely exceeding. The injury tag is sure to get mentioned with regard to Jacobs, but all of the guys you've listed above have their own injury issues--more significant injury issues, in fact.

 

Jacobs has arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, averages over 5.0 YPC, is a beast around the endzone, and doesn't have Ward to poach his carries this year. He also produces regardless of the matchup because defenses just don't face guys like him.

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I don't want to hijack the thread, but I'd take Brandon Jacobs above all of the aforementioned ('cept maybe SJax). I see him at least equaling his total from last year and more likely exceeding. The injury tag is sure to get mentioned with regard to Jacobs, but all of the guys you've listed above have their own injury issues--more significant injury issues, in fact.

 

Jacobs has arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, averages over 5.0 YPC, is a beast around the endzone, and doesn't have Ward to poach his carries this year. He also produces regardless of the matchup because defenses just don't face guys like him.

I agree that Jacobs is a beast, it's his size that concerns me. The taller guys usually have more injuries. What I also like about Gore and Barber is not only are they in their prime, they are also ideal RB size (Gore moreso than Barber). When healthy though, I do like Jacobs.

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Steven Jackson (I know many have him in the top 5 already but he has been hurt and plays on an awful team, so I'd like to discuss further)

 

You mean Steven Jackson ? The guy everyone said was worthy of the #1 overall pick last year ? You can't possibly have meant the great Steven Jackson where most people on this site bow down to this guy. Surely you must have mispoken. I mean Steven Jackson was worthy of the overall #1 pick last year or at least that is what everyone told me last year when I said "man someone in my league went crazy and took S-Jackson #1 overall"

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Gore = safest and the man on O. STUD

Ronnie = STUD this yr, but i think dolphins do like last yr with him and ricky.

SjaX = IF he stays healthy STUD. late 1st early 2nd? heck yea!

Barber = built for RBBBC, cant carry the load for a full yr, too physical. losing touches to choice and jones

Addai = built for rbbc. SOFT. Plus Peyton shouldering the load this yr

 

 

Jacobs has 20 TD potential. No love for Portis?? slaton went 1.4 in my early redraft.

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their game plan makes it sound like he'll return to his 2007 role where he had more TDs and rushing yards. I would look for him to do that again, but with more receptions than 2007.

Felix Jones is going to get all of the third down work, and don't sleep on Tashard Choice. Dallas has the best stable of backs in the league. I don't see any of them being any better than a top 10-12 if MB3 gets back to his TD scoring ways. It's not because they lack ability or talent, it's because all three of them are damn good players.

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There's definitely some nuts on that slaton pick but I guess I could argue it if it was a PPR league....I guess.

 

The only problem with taking SJax is that you have to know he will be hurt at some point in the season, by taking him in the first you kinda are handcuffing yourself to needing a RB in the 2nd round as well.

 

For me it would depend on when I was picking. Last year I picked him in the first but went heavy on RBs to offset his typical injury issues and got some good production from them (CJ, and Stewart specifically).

 

Gore will be better this year if Singletary has anything to say about it, I would take Ronnie Brown in the 2nd, Barber would be a 2nd rounder for me too, and I would only take Addai if i was willing to pull a 4th round pick for Don Brown (I would be hesitant to wait any longer as I think DBrown will be the starter by years end)

 

What may be interesting is who WOULD take Slaton over these guys in the late first or early second. (I think out of this group I would only take Gore and SJax over Slaton in that spot)

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Just so I'm reading this right. Are you saying that M. Barber does not run hard enough? That he should be a stronger force than he is? I had issues with his RBBC being a tougher committe to compete against along with all the WRs limiting his touches. I haven't heard many people complain about him playing like a wuss (which has been a normal criticism of Sjax).

Let me try to defend this a little bit. Two years ago, Marion Barber ran relentlessly. The guy absolutely refused to go down. Heck, half the time, even when he was tackled and the play was blown dead he was still trying to like crawl and keep going. He literally ran harder than anybody else in the NFL. I was in absolute awe of the sheer brutality. However, as the featured back he just didn't seem to have that edge. He didn't seem to bring it every second of every play. There were a few games where he came out just dead. He wasn't taking people on and going through them. Soft isn't a term I would associate with him, but he was less than ferocious, and somewhat mediocre a little too often last year.

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You mean Steven Jackson ? The guy everyone said was worthy of the #1 overall pick last year ? You can't possibly have meant the great Steven Jackson where most people on this site bow down to this guy. Surely you must have mispoken. I mean Steven Jackson was worthy of the overall #1 pick last year or at least that is what everyone told me last year when I said "man someone in my league went crazy and took S-Jackson #1 overall"

 

Don't be such a doooooche'. If Jackson doesn't go through that 5 game stretch where he got tweaked, his FFppw would have put him at RB1 for a full schedule - and pretty easily, I might add. So unless you predicted - prior to the start of the season - the 5 weeks that he was hurt, you just made a hugh horse's patoot of yourself...

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Barber was hurt for half the year last year and when your toe is hurt you can't run. That said, Barber is the most powerful runner of all the backs you listed and in the league. As the poster above said "they don't call him the Barbarian for nothing. I do agree however, that with Jones and Choice MB may not be the everydown back that he was last year which is a good thing for him. I can't see him returning to his 12-16 TD form due to the talent that Choice and Jones bring to the table. Choice scares me as he is a very good all around back who could very well eat into Barbers carries and relegate him to a Hightower type Goal line and short yardage guy. When I saw what Choice did against the Ravens and the Steelers, that showed me a lot. The kid is special and how do you keep him off the field if he produces like he did last year but better with a year under his belt. I don't know but I am scared off Barber this year and would rather have FJ late in the third or fourth if he falls. I just got a feeling Choice is going to make it hard for Wade to sit him and that means Barber will lose touches, but Felix not so much.

Edited by Cowboyz1
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I would want to hear discussion on Larry Johnson. LT, Slaton also I dont believe they are top 5 but mid to end of round 1 selections....Also Beanie and Brown in Indy are intriguing to me this year too...dont forget Ronnie Brown

He is an interesting player. For starters, there were only 2 seasons where he had a lot of carries and he's not 30 years old yet (turns 30 in late November). So, he still has some tread left on the tires. A new coaching staff who will throw a lot more than Herm and Co., might benefit Johnson and a revamped O-line. I know they got a good rookie guard in the 2008 draft but I'm not sure about the rest of their O-line. But, Johnson is a guy who could be had in the 3rd+ round with a possibility of producing 1st round stats.

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Jamal is finished, he has no quicks left. Good thing my Brownies didn't go for LeSean McCoy this year.

 

I like what you have said about SJax missing time at some point this year and relegating yourself to taking another RB high to make up for injury. I know Gore has been healthy recently, but he is another player that would need to have the same type of consideration because of his knees and the heavy workload he takes. I like both of these guys' style, but I am not touching either one until early second round. I would be more inclined to take up one of the 3 WRs Bentastic mentioned in the other thread over any of these two. MB3, love the player, but the RBBC scares the crap out of me. Jerry Jones has a little Al Davis in him and I could see Felix Jones playing a lot because of his freakish speed.

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As DMD mentions, RB value is first about opportunity. I think of those mentioned, the role of Addai and to a much lesser extent Barber are the questions. Barber will no doubt get the carries, the question is how much the other guys will take from him. With Addai there's a chance Brown could take over at some point midseason.

 

Injuries are always a concern, and for some it is more of a risk than others but I'd hate to spend a pick on an RB like Addai in RDs 3-4 or Barber in the 2nd, and have him get less opportunity than expected.

Edited by Company of Heroes
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Frank Gore - Seems to be valued about where he ought to be given his recent track record. But he's due for a bounce back seemingly. Run-oriented offense helps, and he's a good pass catcher to boot. Big question marks are his durability and whether or not the passing game will earn any respect.

 

Marion Barber - Not as valuable as Gore or Jackson since he won't be on the field all three downs, but will probably get double digit TDs being the goalline and running down guy. Still, that's what LenDale White got last year splitting carries, and when was/is he drafted on average? Barber in the first or even first few picks of the second is too early IMO.

 

Ronnie Brown - May still have that stigma of being an injury risk, but is capable of putting up excellent numbers. Has a higher ceiling than Barber IMO, but not sure what the split with Ricky will be. I'd take Brown over Barber, but get the feeling Barber will get drafted first in all of my leagues.

 

Joseph Addai - Talk about tough to pinpoint... Always seems to miss a few games, and seems mainly to be the benficiary of being on a high powered offense. To me, Addai is the least valuable of all of the guys on this list. The Colts didn't draft Donald Brown for nothing...

 

Steven Jackson - The ultimate boom or bust guy. Still, it looks like pieces are coming together for a much better offensive line and that could be the difference for the entire offense functioning better. I wouldn't pass on him if he was there after in the mid-1st.

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why not just take Moss. He will likely total more than 14 TD's. I prefer locks for endzone scores. With a gun to my head, LT before any of the aforementioned...SJax is a fantasy nightmare - can't play through anything....Faulk thinks he's a tool, nuff said.

Edited by Largent
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I don't know... I would probably pass on allot of those guys. Well... maybe not Jacobs but... I think that Kevin Smith has the ability and opportunity to finish better statistically than most mentioned in this thread. Only Addai and Johnson have an ADP lower than his.

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