Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

Big Keeper decision.. Brees or Megatron... please help


Recommended Posts

I have the choice of keeping Brees in the third round (32nd overall pick last year of keeper eligibility) or keeping Calvin Johnson in the 4th round (41st overall pick with one more year of eligibility after this season). Some sites including the Huddle have Johnson as the more valuable player and therefore getting him with a lower pick and an extra eligibility year seems like a no-brainer but... Brees is the highest scoring player in my league and it seems when you have a top tier QB in my league you are guaranteed a playoff spot... tough choice for me... any thoughts would be greatly appreciated... My other keeper is Slaton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 team league. This is NOT a PPR...

 

start:

1QB

1RB

2WR

1 RB/WR

1TE

1DEF

1K

 

scoring is yardage heavy.... QBs yardage counts half as much as RB/WR yardage (but as you know QBs will often throw for 3 to 4 times as many yards) and pass TDs are equal to running and rec TDs...

 

A lot of keepers in this league pulls a lot of big names off of the board (between 24 and 30 players will be kept) and therefore players will go a lot ealier than you would normally expect. Brees in the 3rd and Johnson in the 4th are big bargains in this league.

Edited by MmmMmmGood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to go against my normal advice here and actually suggest you keep Brees (unless this is an 8 team league)

 

Assuming each team only keeps two players, and having a fairly low number of required WRs and no PPR, I just don't see the potential for CJ to provide a hugh value benefit (he's also on my list of the top 10 from last year most likely to fall out of the top 10 this year, so take this input with a grain of salt). However, Brees could be looking at a 1-2 pt per game benefit in value over more standard setup leagues just from the passing yardage rules (assuming you are 1 pt per 20 as oppossed to the more standard 1 pt per 25) if, and it is a big if, he is able to come close to last year's yardage numbers.

 

I'm not sure if this input is predicated more on my own cautious approach to Calvin as it is to the thought the Brees is more likely to come close to last year's numbers.

 

Now, if you were to tell me you anticipate every team to keep a WR and just about none to keep a QB, then I may adjust this based on who is likely to be available in the draft (and would also need to take into consideration what pick you have)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have the 8th overall pick in a 12 team league... keepers have not been announced yet but here are some of the guys I expect to be kept in this TIERED keeper system:

 

QB:

Brady

Romo

Rogers

Ryan

 

RB

Chris Johnson

Michael Turner

Deangelo Williams

Peterson

Slaton

Portis

Forte

MJD

McFadden

Pierre Thomas

Graham

Felix Jones

Ryan Grant

 

WR

Boldin

Welker

Jennings

Marshall

Roddy White

Lance Moore

Antonio Bryant

 

 

As you can see the top QBs are kept except Manning... Many top RBs are kept ... but most of the top WRs are out there.. I will probably go WR in the first (maybe Andre Johnson) and then I expect a run of WRs to occur which will take most of the top 10 off the board by the time I pick in the 2nd round... then I'll be able to pick either a WR 10-12 or RB 15-18 I think.... Colston,TO, Bowe or Lynch Kev Smith, Marion Barber...

 

does that help???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would you give the same advice if it was Reggie Wayne?

 

I think your bias against CJ is making the decision for you and that's perfectly acceptable.

 

But in a 1 QB league, I can't imagine a scoring setup that would have me pick a top three QB over a top five WR... especially at the cost-value of round four vs round three.

 

 

I had initially thought this thread was way too goofy for discussion, but I guess I'm not as smart as you think I am.

 

Why is this a goofy thread?? This is an ultra competitive league and I'm asking for serious advice.

 

I think when deciding between Brees and Johnson the scoring is everything. The scoring in this league is complex but it essentially rewards 2 points for every 10 yards for RBs and WRs and 1 point for every 10 yards for QBs. 6 points for every type of TD. QBs put up big numbers in this league and if you have a QB that puts up big numbers every week I do think it is a big advantage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would you give the same advice if it was Reggie Wayne?

 

I think your bias against CJ is making the decision for you and that's perfectly acceptable.

 

But in a 1 QB league, I can't imagine a scoring setup that would have me pick a top three QB over a top five WR... especially at the cost-value of round four vs round three.

 

 

I had initially thought this thread was way too goofy for discussion, but I guess I'm not as smart as you think I am.

 

I think you nailed it, and I think I called it out that at this point, I have a fairly low level of confidence in CJ repeating as a top 5 WR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I beleieve you can get comprable value at WR this year and years to come, but there is very few top notch QB's coming in and they take longer to develop as a norm than a WR, so, I'd lock Brees up in this situation especially playing for a play caller like Peyton in NO. I'd say Brees would be a no brainer for you in this situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is this a goofy thread?? This is an ultra competitive league and I'm asking for serious advice.

 

I think when deciding between Brees and Johnson the scoring is everything. The scoring in this league is complex but it essentially rewards 2 points for every 10 yards for RBs and WRs and 1 point for every 10 yards for QBs. 6 points for every type of TD. QBs put up big numbers in this league and if you have a QB that puts up big numbers every week I do think it is a big advantage.

 

This is where your thinking is getting a bit flawed. Raw scoring is not key, it is the differential between the players within the position. Generally speaking, in most scoring systems, QBs in general score very similarly when compared to the spread between the top backs and the lower tier starters and the same goes for WRs.

 

I have said that I am not the biggest fan of CJ this year, but you have to determine if he will outscore the other WRs you would be looking at in the draft by more than Brees will outscore the QBs that would be available. Based on most people's views of CJ, I would think most would lean his way over Brees, more so if it were a PPR league.

 

Based on who you project to be kept though, I think it is an even tougher decision, even if I had higher expectations for CJ. Brees is the last of the "elite" QBs, so you would definitely be looking at a 2nd tier QB if you let him go assuming he is taken in the first 7 picks, however, there are still quite a few top level WRs available in the draft, such that you would be able to get CJ or a comparable WR most likely with the 8th pick. The caveat is just how does your league shake out valuewise? If you feel CJ is still going to put up top 5 numbers, and the value shakes out as is the norm in most 1 QB leagues, would you be better suited keeping CJ for a 4th, looking at another top WR in the first round and then going BPA in the 2nd to address the Qb or flex spot then filling the other spot in the 3rd? I certainly feel that a very strong argument could be made to this approach. If you keep Brees, then you essentially follow the same pattern as above, just that you would not be filling the flex spot until the 4th round.

 

ETA: While it is a closer call, I still lean to keeping Brees.

Edited by Big Country
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is where your thinking is getting a bit flawed. Raw scoring is not key, it is the differential between the players within the position. Generally speaking, in most scoring systems, QBs in general score very similarly when compared to the spread between the top backs and the lower tier starters and the same goes for WRs.

 

As a long-time baseball stats guy I have a good understanding of what sabermetricians called "replacement value". And I do indeed understand and to an extent agree with your point. I also think raw scoring and consistent scoring needs to be considered as well...

 

Another way to slice this debate is to look at a few scenarios... Here are a few ways my first few rounds could go with Slaton as a keeper later in the draft... which plan do you like best??

 

Plan one: Keep Brees and Slaton:

1.Andre Johnson

2.Colston/Bowe

3.Brees

4.Parker/Addai/KnoMo (might slip here)

Slaton

 

Plan one A (added this one in after post was created) Keep Brees but go RB in round 2.

1.Andre Johnson

2.Kev Smith/Lynch/LJ????

3.Brees

4.Braylan Edwards/Berrian??

Slaton

 

Plan two: Keep Calvin Johnson pick Manning in 2nd

1.Andre Johnson

2.Manning

3.LJ/Addai/Parker

4.Calvin Johnson

Slaton

 

Plan 3: Keep Calvin Johnson go RB in 2nd and pick Warner in third

1. Andre Johnson

2. Lynch/LJ/Parker/Addai/Kev Smith

3. Warner

4. Calvin Johnson

Slaton

 

Which plan looks best to you guys???

Edited by MmmMmmGood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

:D Slowly but Shirley, you are being converted.

 

Nah, just always willing to look at the details of each situation. On the surface, one might quickly jump on the CJ for a 4th option, as it presents a great value (unless you are a CJ doubter this year)

 

Because I thought the players and values made it such an easy choice that it was silly to start such a thread. I mean CJ for a 4th and Brees for a 3rd?

 

Big Country, Capt. Waffle and tazinib1 all share the same different opinion than I have and since I respect them, clearly, I'm the idiot this time. :wacko:

 

Opie makes a valid point, he is the idiot.. j/k In most scenarios in today's more standard setup (PPR scoring and 3 WR minimum) this would more likely be an easy CJ situation, even though I do not see him performing at last year's levels, the potential for him to do so is there.

 

This all depends upon where those that are keeping a QB pick. If you are picking at 1.8 and the back half of the draft all have there QB's, then this entire debate changes.

 

It also matters where the owners that have kept a WR are picking. If most of the guys in front of you are keeping a WR, it is that much safer to let CJ go and lock up Brees. If the WRs are all kept by players picking after you, you have a tougher choice as more WRs are likely to come off the board in front of you.

 

 

So, since I haven't said it yet...... can you trade before you have to declare?

 

Also, further good news is that with the situation being so close, I really don't think you can truly go wrong with either option.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think when deciding between Brees and Johnson the scoring is everything. The scoring in this league is complex but it essentially rewards 2 points for every 10 yards for RBs and WRs and 1 point for every 10 yards for QBs. 6 points for every type of TD. QBs put up big numbers in this league and if you have a QB that puts up big numbers every week I do think it is a big advantage.

 

Wow, your scoring system devalues TDs with the higher than normal yardage points. Considering Brees HUGE passing yardage, his point advantage over other QBs is much larger than in standard leagues. I love Calvin and am keeping him (PPR league), but this is a no brainer in my opinion. I think Brees may be worth the #1 overall pick in your league if it were a redraft. He is safe to repeat his numbers, and those numbers are worth more in your league!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, your scoring system devalues TDs with the higher than normal yardage points. Considering Brees HUGE passing yardage, his point advantage over other QBs is much larger than in standard leagues. I love Calvin and am keeping him (PPR league), but this is a no brainer in my opinion. I think Brees may be worth the #1 overall pick in your league if it were a redraft. He is safe to repeat his numbers, and those numbers are worth more in your league!

 

Kiser....

thanks for the reply... I found your analysis really helpful. This is my main league and I always played the standard way prioritizing RBs and WRs but I think this is a league where a QB that gets a lot of yards really rules... It is a yardage heavy league in general which I do enjoy.... still unsure which way to go... which of the following two scenarios sounds most appealing???

 

ONE:

Brees

Slaton

rb pick 41 (Thomas Jones/KnoMo)

Andre Johnson

Marques Colston

 

TWO:

Manning

Slaton

RB pick 32 (Addai/Parker/Bush)

Calvin Johnson

Andre Johnson

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kiser....

thanks for the reply... I found your analysis really helpful. This is my main league and I always played the standard way prioritizing RBs and WRs but I think this is a league where a QB that gets a lot of yards really rules... It is a yardage heavy league in general which I do enjoy.... still unsure which way to go... which of the following two scenarios sounds most appealing???

 

ONE:

Brees

Slaton

rb pick 41 (Thomas Jones/KnoMo)

Andre Johnson

Marques Colston

 

TWO:

Manning

Slaton

RB pick 32 (Addai/Parker/Bush)

Calvin Johnson

Andre Johnson

Can you realistically get Manning in round 2? With that scoring system, I'd think that top tier QBs would go off the board fast (6pts for all TDs including passing?). I don't think I'd gamble that he'd be there and I'd keep Brees and go with team 1. I like the looks of team 2 better, but it is a gamble that Peyton will be there in round 2. Take the sure thing (Brees), and build from there.

2008:

Brees 5069/34 = 710 pts

Manning 4002/27 = 562pts

Difference = 9.25pt/gm

 

I do expect these two to get closer together in 2008, but I would not gamble. Keep Brees to ensure you have a huge advantage over almost every other team in the league.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can you post what the top 12 QBs scored last year and a sampling of the top 18 RBs and top 30 WRs? Trying to get a gauge of what the scoring range is like with this scoring system.

 

OK below I listed top 20 QBs, top 30 RBs and top 30 WRs from the 2008 season. A note about the scoring... the scoring guidelines I gave earlier are good approximates to resemble standard leagues... the scales I gave are accurate but our league scoring is actually higher by a factor of 10... every rushing and rec yard is worth 2 points, every passing yard is worth 1 point, every kind of TD is worth 60 points, fumbles and ints are minus 45... that's why the raw points totals seem high. In a really unorthadox move my commissioner DEDUCTS 2 points for each carry and reception to reward yards per carry and yards per reception. I know the scoring seems odd but we are all very happy and we have not had any turnover in this league for 8 years...

 

 

QBs top 20

Player FPTS

Brees, Drew QB NO 5668

Cutler, Jay QB CHI 4984

Rivers, Philip QB SD 4929

Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 4844

Warner, Kurt QB ARI 4741

Manning, Peyton QB IND 4654

McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 4218

Pennington, Chad QB MIA 4002

Cassel, Matt QB KC 3995

Garrard, David QB JAC 3580

Romo, Tony QB DAL 3533

Ryan, Matt QB ATL 3530

Campbell, Jason QB WAS 3417

Thigpen, Tyler QB KC 3398

Manning, Eli QB NYG 3362

Favre, Brett QB NYJ 3182

Delhomme, Jake QB CAR 3091

Schaub, Matt QB HOU 3036

Flacco, Joe QB BAL 2980

Orton, Kyle QB DEN 2885

 

 

RBs top 30

Player FPTS

Williams, DeAngelo CA 3979

Turner, Michael RB ATL 3717

Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 3487

Forte, Matt RB CHI 3420

Jones, Thomas RB NYJ 3314

Slaton, Steve RB HOU 3265

Tomlinson, LaDainian SD 3177

Portis, Clinton RB WAS 3148

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC 3038

Johnson, Chris RB TEN 3016

Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 2970

Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 2728

Gore, Frank RB SF 2690

Jackson, Steven RB STL 2674

Lynch, Marshawn RB BUF 2666

Ward, Derrick RB TB 2565

Brown, Ronnie RB MIA 2531

Barber, Marion RB DAL 2502

Smith, Kevin RB DET 2474

McClain, LeRon RB BAL 2248

Thomas, Pierre RB NO 2246

Grant, Ryan RB GB 2216

Faulk, Kevin RB NE 2130

White, LenDale RB TEN 2096

Lewis, Jamal RB CLE 2024

Stewart, Jonathan CAR 2010

Dunn, Warrick RB TB 1959

Rhodes, Dominic RB BUF 1919

Moore, Mewelde RB PIT 1889

Morris, Sammy RB NE 1878

 

 

WRs top 30

Player FPTS

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI 3469

Johnson, Andre WR HOU 3448

Johnson, Calvin WR DET 3221

Smith, Steve WR CAR 3136

Jennings, Greg WR GB 3057

White, Roddy WR ATL 3040

Bryant, Antonio WR TB 2818

Jackson, Vincent WR SD 2656

Owens, Terrell WR BUF 2646

Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 2612

Marshall, Brandon DEN 2608

Wayne, Reggie WR IND 2579

Moss, Randy WR NE 2517

Ward, Hines WR PIT 2423

Welker, Wes WR NE 2382

Moss, Santana WR WAS 2370

Bowe, Dwayne WR KC 2365

Berrian, Bernard W MIN 2324

Moore, Lance WR NO 2324

Royal, Eddie WR DEN 2320

Walter, Kevin WR HOU 2271

Mason, Derrick WR BAL 2266

Driver, Donald WR GB 2253

Evans, Lee WR BUF 2178

Breaston, Steve WR ARI 2117

Coles, Laveranues CIN 2067

Muhammad, Muhsin CAR 2044

Bruce, Isaac WR SF 2029

Jackson, DeSean WR PHI 1974

Houshmandzadeh, T.J.SEA 1953

Edited by MmmMmmGood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information